House prices over the coming months?

[bitchstewie]

Still looking at getting my own place and I'll admit other than looking on RightMove regularly I have no idea what the market is doing at the moment either due to the economy, or just seasonal variations (do people sell in summer or all just go on holiday?).

Anyone with a crystal ball know if now is a good or bad time to be a buyer?

Whilst I don't buy into the brexit scaremongering there's a balance between "scares" over interest rates (bad for buyers I guess) and prices falling (good for buyers).

Help

[Hoofy]

bhstewie said:

Whilst I don't buy into the brexit scaremongering there's a balance between "scares" over interest rates (bad for buyers I guess) and prices falling (good for buyers).

Heard someone from some housing organisation (could have been head of some estate agents or builders consortium or something similar) say that if we leave:
1) House builders would slow down production
2) House prices would fall.

Not sure how that fits into the supply and demand model.

[zygalski]

What they mean, in a word, is recession.

[V8RX7]

I'd say now is possibly the worst time to buy...

however I've been saying that for years and as the population is increasing far quicker than than homes are being built, I could be wrong.

Equally if the rented homes come back on the market or foreign money leaves the UK because of a Vote to Leave, I could be right.

[bitchstewie]

When I say "now" I suspect I'm talking months given you have to wait for the right thing to come up in the right areas etc.

[camshafted]

I suspect prices at the bottom and middle of the market will stabilise following the SDLT changes while the top end of the market will continue to freefall for the same reasons.

[Vocal Minority]

Hoofy said:

bhstewie said:

Whilst I don't buy into the brexit scaremongering there's a balance between "scares" over interest rates (bad for buyers I guess) and prices falling (good for buyers).

Heard someone from some housing organisation (could have been head of some estate agents or builders consortium or something similar) say that if we leave:
1) House builders would slow down production
2) House prices would fall.

Not sure how that fits into the supply and demand model.

Demand would fall off even further than building....

[kambites]

Vocal Minority said:

Demand would fall off even further than building....

How though? The population isn't going to suddenly shrink and people still need to live somewhere. There might be a few holiday homes currently owned by Europeans which come onto the market, but I can't see that being particularly significant to the market as a whole?

I think the only thing which will cause house prices to fall is a drop in the affordability or availability of credit which basically means rising interest rates or falling employment/salaries.

Edited by kambites on Tuesday 31st May 09:28

[SonicHedgeHog]

Think how long it takes governments to agree anything. Even the smallest item. Even if 100% vote to leave it'll take years to disentangle the UK from the EU and negotiate umpteen trade agreements. There will be a week of hysteria followed by years of sod all change. Buy your house and get in with your life.

[kambites]

SonicHedgeHog said:

Think how long it takes governments to agree anything. Even the smallest item. Even if 100% vote to leave it'll take years to disentangle the UK from the EU and negotiate umpteen trade agreements. There will be a week of hysteria followed by years of sod all change. Buy your house and get in with your life.

This is also true. If we do vote to leave, it's going to be years rather than months before anything actually changes.

[Rangeroverover]

Whichever way the vote goes we are not going to wake up the next morning to find a different world. If you want to buy a house, go out and buy a house, I have heard so many people since the 90's saying they are going to wait for the market to dip and buy into that.

Don't try to call the market, the only thing I would do is try and get a fixed interest deal now as I suspect the currencies/interest rates could go screwy.

I sell houses for a living and used to work for an investment bank (I'm good at shame)

[Sheepshanks]

V8RX7 said:

I'd say now is possibly the worst time to buy...

however I've been saying that for years and as the population is increasing far quicker than than homes are being built, I could be wrong.

Equally if the rented homes come back on the market or foreign money leaves the UK because of a Vote to Leave, I could be right.

Now might be a good time to buy - capitalise on the uncertainty.

In reality, there's not a cat-in-hells chance of a vote to leave.

[FrankAbagnale]

My gut feeling is that the market is going to stall for the foreseeable future in the lower to middle price brackets and is going to decline quite significantly in the £2m+ bracket.

If I was FTB who saw a house I liked tomorrow I would test the vendors resolve with a lower offer to a greater degree than I would've 6 months ago. But, I would be fairly confident my property wouldn't reduce in value any time soon. That said, I don't think growth will be as strong as we've become used to.

N.B - I think I have tunnel vision and comment on London/Home Counties. Anywhere else in the country and I wouldn't have a clue. Somebody told me today that prices in N Wales are climbing rapidly?!

Interestingly, I was talking to a chum who runs agencies in prime central London and they are 70% down on sales commissions than the same time in 2014. He said that the market has completely stalled above £1.5m and offers accepted over £2m are generally around 20-25% less than guide prices. In Oxfordshire where I am the market up to £1m is still OK (although a few price reductions creeping in) but above £2m we are also seeing sales agreed at 20% less than Guide Prices.

Edited by FrankAbagnale on Tuesday 31st May 11:55

Edited by FrankAbagnale on Tuesday 31st May 11:56

[wiggy001]

An estate agent (*) has just valued our property and reckons prices in our area (just inside the SE M25) have risen 26% since November.

We bought our place in 2009 for £250k and have so far had 2 valuations for £380k and £400k. Evidence of sold prices seems to back this up too.

I've always said that "now" is always the right time to buy - houses will only ever get less affordable (especially with wages fairly stagnant at the moment) and interest rates could/will rise. Supply/Demand...

• So take with a handful of salt...

[Sheepshanks]

wiggy001 said:

An estate agent (*) has just valued our property and reckons prices in our area (just inside the SE M25) have risen 26% since November.

We bought our place in 2009 for £250k and have so far had 2 valuations for £380k and £400k. Evidence of sold prices seems to back this up too.

So they've increased approx. the same percentage in the last 6mths as they did over the previous 6 years?

[BlackST]

FrankAbagnale said:

Interestingly, I was talking to a chum who runs agencies in prime central London and they are 70% down on sales commissions than the same time in 2014. He said that the market has completely stalled above £1.5m and offers accepted over £2m are generally around 20-25% less than guide prices. In Oxfordshire where I am the market up to £1m is still OK (although a few price reductions creeping in) but above £2m we are also seeing sales agreed at 20% less than Guide Prices.

Edited by FrankAbagnale on Tuesday 31st May 11:55

Edited by FrankAbagnale on Tuesday 31st May 11:56

Won't some of that be to do with Russians and the exchange rate being bad in their favour? Weren't they buying alot in London in the past few years and recently have slowed down on spending in this country?

[mike74]

Can't believe how wide of the mark some people are when they suggest interest rate rises would "be a bad thing" for anyone looking to buy right now... interest rates rising would be like a gift from heaven for anyone looking to buy right now, all the over-leveraged debt junkies that bought property they can barely afford because rates are so low would suddenly find themselves unable to keep up their mortgage repayments and the market would have a large influx of rather 'motivated' vendors, resulting in a good selection of keenly priced properties.

[CAPP0]

Sheepshanks said:

wiggy001 said:

An estate agent (*) has just valued our property and reckons prices in our area (just inside the SE M25) have risen 26% since November.

We bought our place in 2009 for £250k and have so far had 2 valuations for £380k and £400k. Evidence of sold prices seems to back this up too.

So they've increased approx. the same percentage in the last 6mths as they did over the previous 6 years?

Similar to ours, which is SE but outside the M25. Bought in 2010 for £285k, several same-layout houses now being offered in the village at £400-450k. Some people have pushed their luck at £500k+, albeit one has an extension, and that property is showing as SSTC although agreed price not known.

[Chris Type R]

FrankAbagnale said:

Interestingly, I was talking to a chum who runs agencies in prime central London and they are 70% down on sales commissions than the same time in 2014. He said that the market has completely stalled above £1.5m and offers accepted over £2m are generally around 20-25% less than guide prices. In Oxfordshire where I am the market up to £1m is still OK (although a few price reductions creeping in) but above £2m we are also seeing sales agreed at 20% less than Guide Prices.

I know someone who was looking to change house in the > £2m bracket. It was the amount of stamp duty (>£200k) that put them off changing property.

[FrankAbagnale]

Chris Type R said:

FrankAbagnale said:

Interestingly, I was talking to a chum who runs agencies in prime central London and they are 70% down on sales commissions than the same time in 2014. He said that the market has completely stalled above £1.5m and offers accepted over £2m are generally around 20-25% less than guide prices. In Oxfordshire where I am the market up to £1m is still OK (although a few price reductions creeping in) but above £2m we are also seeing sales agreed at 20% less than Guide Prices.

I know someone who was looking to change house in the > £2m bracket. It was the amount of stamp duty (>£200k) that put them off changing property.

Yup, increases in stamp and the extra 3% for a lot of buyers in that bracket has made it very expensive to move.