Your Job Is At Risk - Rise of the Machines
Discussion
Guvernator said:
I agree automation has been "coming" for what seems like ages but it looks like it's actually happening now. All the technologies I've mentioned are in development or even in widespread use now. The last 3 IT projects I've worked on have all been a part of a migration from internal IT services out to the Cloud and each time there have been redundancies involved.
Driverless cars - testing as we speak, probably out in the public domain in the next 5-10 years.
Learning\Expert systems are more accurate then humans right now for analysing financial data, data mining, even medical analysis.
Large companies are all pushing for automation as an automated system doesn't need to rest, go to the lunch\toilet\fag break, doesn't moan, doesn't get tired and makes less mistakes. In short they are much more cost effective and these companies are all about their bottom line. The problem is when everyone is out of work, who will actually pay for all these goods\services produced by robots? Is anyone actually putting thought into how a future automated economy would actually work?
What you find with many cloud migrations though is that it's the people who're looking after the application or hardware that arent as needed, but the application or hardware is still maintained by 'someone' - it's just that someone happens to work for someone else. It's less of an automation problem, more a resource oneDriverless cars - testing as we speak, probably out in the public domain in the next 5-10 years.
Learning\Expert systems are more accurate then humans right now for analysing financial data, data mining, even medical analysis.
Large companies are all pushing for automation as an automated system doesn't need to rest, go to the lunch\toilet\fag break, doesn't moan, doesn't get tired and makes less mistakes. In short they are much more cost effective and these companies are all about their bottom line. The problem is when everyone is out of work, who will actually pay for all these goods\services produced by robots? Is anyone actually putting thought into how a future automated economy would actually work?
anonymous said:
[redacted]
You are talking about DevOps, the problem with that is I'm not a developer, don't enjoy programming\coding otherwise I'd be doing that instead of what I do now. Development and Operations were traditionally two separate fields so you usually picked one early in your career. Some people like developing some people don't, now all of a sudden they want to merge them, again to do more with less people when they aren't really complimentary skillsets IMO. Re-training almost my whole skillset into something I don't really enjoy doing after 20 years doing another branch of IT, not for me. If I have to re-train I think I'd rather go do something completely different.Why did I go into IT, because I enjoyed messing around with computers when I was younger and realised I could make money out of it.
This isn't just IT related though, as we can see from other posts, the ongoing march of technology will effect many peoples jobs. Yes you could argue this has always happened, just ask the coal miners but I think the impact this time will be much bigger and wider effecting multiple industries. The Oxford University study really doesn't paint a very rosy picture and people like Deloitte etc are now using that data to try to highlight the point but it seems no one is really listening yet.
Industry 4.0 is quite unheard of in many areas but it's coming quickly and is the hot topic in many of my clients' offices.
My particular area of work is supply chain (business process design and associated software) and I would say that 70% of the work is with large (actually, very large) global clients looking at how they can run processes, including office based ones, with fewer staff.
Obviously reduced operating cost has always been a key strategy but previously it tended to be around reduced inventory levels and reduced movements - hence fewer bodies required. Now the focus is starting to move towards the planning side of the business; 'how can we get to a place where supply planners can manage 3,000 product lines each instead of 300', and that sort of thing.
Those areas used to be relatively untouchable as planning was as much an art as a science in many businesses but cloud computing and outsourcing of business functions to specialists is picking up pace.
It's the natural progression of specialisation and division of labour and the catalyst for this new surge forwards is cloud computing power.
My particular area of work is supply chain (business process design and associated software) and I would say that 70% of the work is with large (actually, very large) global clients looking at how they can run processes, including office based ones, with fewer staff.
Obviously reduced operating cost has always been a key strategy but previously it tended to be around reduced inventory levels and reduced movements - hence fewer bodies required. Now the focus is starting to move towards the planning side of the business; 'how can we get to a place where supply planners can manage 3,000 product lines each instead of 300', and that sort of thing.
Those areas used to be relatively untouchable as planning was as much an art as a science in many businesses but cloud computing and outsourcing of business functions to specialists is picking up pace.
It's the natural progression of specialisation and division of labour and the catalyst for this new surge forwards is cloud computing power.
I hadn't looked at the link in the OP when I posted before, but having had a look now it's very much in line with what I'm seeing in big business.
The fact that ''Purchasing Director' is a role which is showing 59% likelihood of replacement by a machine is very telling.
How accurate the 59% is a different question of course, but only a very few years ago talking about the end of a role like that would have been completely unthinkable.
The fact that ''Purchasing Director' is a role which is showing 59% likelihood of replacement by a machine is very telling.
How accurate the 59% is a different question of course, but only a very few years ago talking about the end of a role like that would have been completely unthinkable.
Yep this is what I was trying to get at. As an example in my field, previously when you had physical server tin, a good ratio might be 1 person per 100 servers, then we went to virtualisation and this went up to 1 person to look after 300 servers, now it's cloud based and the automation technologies now mean you can have 1 person looking after 1000+ servers. It's all about doing more with less so what happens to all the surplus people? Re-train? OK now you are competing in a market where 1 person is doing a job that used to take 10 people and this has happened in the last 15 years, what will happen in the next 15.
This isn't just in IT but across the board. Many of the worlds largest businesses are investing in automation in a big way, Amazon, Google etc they are all at it. Again I'm not sure anyone has really thought this through to conclusion. Automating nearly everything means eventually hardly anyone will be working. How do people pay for stuff that these big business are producing in their automated factories when they don't have jobs?
This isn't just in IT but across the board. Many of the worlds largest businesses are investing in automation in a big way, Amazon, Google etc they are all at it. Again I'm not sure anyone has really thought this through to conclusion. Automating nearly everything means eventually hardly anyone will be working. How do people pay for stuff that these big business are producing in their automated factories when they don't have jobs?
good thread on AI that is quite apt to this thread - http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
ikarl said:
good thread on AI that is quite apt to this thread - http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
I actually contributed to that thread too and yes AI would be a massive game changer too but I think we are still a few years from that happening whereas mass automation is happening right now in many industries.As for the robodentist no thanks....but then what happens when we work out a way to make new teeth regrow with a simple pill?
I think the one takeaway from this is:
"Get your kids to learn how to code"
Because regardless of what job they're in in future it's going to be a huge enabler for them.
Even though my skills end with pecking at Excel VBA one fingered, and pressing "execute" with my hands covering my eyes lest I accidentally set off a nuclear holocaust, it's been a big help for me.
It reminds me of the idea that animals aren't considered to be intelligent until they have the capability to develop tools.
"Get your kids to learn how to code"
Because regardless of what job they're in in future it's going to be a huge enabler for them.
Even though my skills end with pecking at Excel VBA one fingered, and pressing "execute" with my hands covering my eyes lest I accidentally set off a nuclear holocaust, it's been a big help for me.
It reminds me of the idea that animals aren't considered to be intelligent until they have the capability to develop tools.
There's a story on the BBC website today saying than an AI "Lawyer" has predicted 76% of a large number of ECHR cases correctly.
Makes you wonder whether it's the AI that's making mistakes or the judges?
I design the machines that replace people's jobs, so I'll be okay for a bit but to be honest I'd welcome full unemployment.
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37727387
Makes you wonder whether it's the AI that's making mistakes or the judges?
I design the machines that replace people's jobs, so I'll be okay for a bit but to be honest I'd welcome full unemployment.
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37727387
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