Is your job at risk from A.I. ?
Discussion
Atomic12C said:
Looking ahead in terms of cars specifically, I can see a time whereby car ownership is a thing of the past.
With driverless cars, why would you want to own it?
You'd just call one up via the internet and it will arrive for you to step in.
As such the operation and maintenance would likely be fully automated, as the car will drive itself to the 'garage' when it flags up it need maintenance.
There would likely not be local garages but a number of national centres whereby a full engine drop and replacement would likely be done within minutes.
Given that cars are also likely to be very good on mpg with mainly battery powered powerplants (it therefore would be much less cost in asking that vehicle to travel to a maintenance centre a good number of miles away).
Some say the future is bright - but I can see a storm coming
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zTzh8uhnlqc/hqdefault.jpg
Autonomous cars of the future will most likely be electric, so maintenance will be minimal.With driverless cars, why would you want to own it?
You'd just call one up via the internet and it will arrive for you to step in.
As such the operation and maintenance would likely be fully automated, as the car will drive itself to the 'garage' when it flags up it need maintenance.
There would likely not be local garages but a number of national centres whereby a full engine drop and replacement would likely be done within minutes.
Given that cars are also likely to be very good on mpg with mainly battery powered powerplants (it therefore would be much less cost in asking that vehicle to travel to a maintenance centre a good number of miles away).
Some say the future is bright - but I can see a storm coming
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zTzh8uhnlqc/hqdefault.jpg
TheExcession said:
It was trialed at a pub in the next town, I know the LL reasonably well as I installed a lot of his AV kit.
A very clean, upmarket place, immaculately kept in terms of decor and cleanliness and a very sharp cookie as a LL.
He got a few of those tables in where there were beer taps in the centre of a big round table, customers put credit on to the taps and were allowed to refill their own glasses at their own table.
I went in a few months later and the whole shebang had been ripped out again. Not been back for a while I'll make a point of asking him why it didn't work out next time I see him.
Maybe punters couldn't pour their own pint properly, leading to a lot of wastage? I've seen a concept using specially designed glasses that fill from the bottom up, resulting in a perfect pint. If this idea takes off then maybe pub/bar automation will work properly.A very clean, upmarket place, immaculately kept in terms of decor and cleanliness and a very sharp cookie as a LL.
He got a few of those tables in where there were beer taps in the centre of a big round table, customers put credit on to the taps and were allowed to refill their own glasses at their own table.
I went in a few months later and the whole shebang had been ripped out again. Not been back for a while I'll make a point of asking him why it didn't work out next time I see him.
Interesting article today on this very subject -
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/05...
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/05...
Pure thinking, or pure doing can be (and already are being) replaced by AI and robotics to a degree, but thinking and doing is going to be tricky.
While I accept the point above that future cars could be designed in a way to make robotic servicing easier, I can't see a mechanical plumber fitting my bathroom any time soon.
While I accept the point above that future cars could be designed in a way to make robotic servicing easier, I can't see a mechanical plumber fitting my bathroom any time soon.
Darryl247W said:
I've been in IT for 29 years. Despite advances and automation, systems have always needed human intervention to keep the automation on track. AI is very different from an algorithm aping human skills. Maybe, maybe, maybe in some odd future. With my remaining years of employment, maybe my answer to the OP's question is no, my job is not at risk from A.I.
I've been in IT for about 20 years. In that time, especially in the last 5-10 years with the wide-scale adoption of virtualisation, cloud technologies and automation, I've seen a massive decrease in the number of people needed to fix and look after IT. 20 years ago you'd need at least one person to look after a hundred physical servers, now that same one person can look after a thousand. When a user can login to a web browser and spin up a new virtual server for themselves in 5 minutes, what use is there for a whole team of IT technicians who used to do that for them?
Yes there are still IT jobs but I predict the numbers needed to keep those systems running or to provision new stuff will only go one way. I've still probably got about 15 years of work before I can expect to retire. I have little confidence that my job will be safe for that long and I'm already looking at options for a plan B.
Guvernator said:
Darryl247W said:
I've been in IT for 29 years. Despite advances and automation, systems have always needed human intervention to keep the automation on track. AI is very different from an algorithm aping human skills. Maybe, maybe, maybe in some odd future. With my remaining years of employment, maybe my answer to the OP's question is no, my job is not at risk from A.I.
I've been in IT for about 20 years. In that time, especially in the last 5-10 years with the wide-scale adoption of virtualisation, cloud technologies and automation, I've seen a massive decrease in the number of people needed to fix and look after IT. 20 years ago you'd need at least one person to look after a hundred physical servers, now that same one person can look after a thousand. When a user can login to a web browser and spin up a new virtual server for themselves in 5 minutes, what use is there for a whole team of IT technicians who used to do that for them?
Yes there are still IT jobs but I predict the numbers needed to keep those systems running or to provision new stuff will only go one way. I've still probably got about 15 years of work before I can expect to retire. I have little confidence that my job will be safe for that long and I'm already looking at options for a plan B.
In financial services financial advice is edging towards robo-advice - this means lesser entry positions and in time lesser experienced advisers but you still need bodies to help ensure the coding or guidance given follows requirements.
I think menial uneducated task based jobs will marginalise but you will only need 1 person to oversee the automated role of the 5-10 replaced.
Darryl247W said:
I've been in IT for 29 years. Despite advances and automation, systems have always needed human intervention to keep the automation on track. AI is very different from an algorithm aping human skills. Maybe, maybe, maybe in some odd future. With my remaining years of employment, maybe my answer to the OP's question is no, my job is not at risk from A.I.
I think you're missing a vital point. Its not YOU that will become redundant, but that you wont need replacing in the future, Therefore its your role/position/job that's becoming redundant, but not you. You will likely see out your career in IT with your 29 (plus) years experience, but will you need to be replaced by someone coming out of Uni in 15 years time? Will the junior positions still exist where your future replacement gains his IT experience? I think this is the issue. IT jobs will be removed from the ground up. Its already happening. 1st line support is full of people that can only type questions into a knowledge base, they cant investigate the cause of the issues themselves due to lack of experience. As they get promoted into 2nd line they need to go on courses to teach them the basics.... Borroxs said:
I think you're missing a vital point. Its not YOU that will become redundant, but that you wont need replacing in the future, Therefore its your role/position/job that's becoming redundant, but not you. You will likely see out your career in IT with your 29 (plus) years experience, but will you need to be replaced by someone coming out of Uni in 15 years time? Will the junior positions still exist where your future replacement gains his IT experience? I think this is the issue. IT jobs will be removed from the ground up. Its already happening. 1st line support is full of people that can only type questions into a knowledge base, they cant investigate the cause of the issues themselves due to lack of experience. As they get promoted into 2nd line they need to go on courses to teach them the basics....
Probably true, I can conceivably see me being able to stretch it out maybe another 15 years as not everyone will be joining the brave new automated world at the same speed. There will however be the very real difficulty that I'll be in competition with similarly skilled people in a marketplace that will be offering a lot less of those kinds of jobs over those years.As for generations to come, if asked I definitely don't recommend to young people that they get into IT now like I would have been doing 10 years ago as I don't think it's a viable long term career choice anymore, at least not in any of the fields I work in. In fact I'd probably tell them to go do a course in robotics, automation or AI.
stuartmmcfc said:
I don't think it will be a long time coming myself. Once a computer can out think us, it will find solutions to,develop accurate movements for itself.
Yes, the world's biggest hedge fund (in US) wants to replace some or all of its CEO with a machine decision-maker by 2020.At current rates, the best machine-learning (ML) will outhink humans by roughly 2030.
Mass ML will outhink humans by roughly 2040.
Robots / machines will be able to replicate and self-build via 3D printing by 2050.
Everyone reading this under 50 is at threat of losing their job, or having to completely reskill (which typically takes ~10 years for well-paid jobs).
El stovey said:
stuartmmcfc said:
Seriously, is there a job that couldn't be done in the future by a more intelligent creation? Don't forget there'll come a point when they start improving themselves both "mentally" and physically and start thinking in a way that we can't understand. Any job that requires abstract thinking will be done better. I'm not saying this will happen next week but probably in my children's lifetime.
The future is worrying.
Have you never seen Terminator?
Most species, except us, live in balance with each other and their environment. Who's to say the robots wouldn't also?. The future is worrying.
Have you never seen Terminator?
Perhaps a future run by robots might actually be better.
TX.
Munter said:
sherman said:
I work in a pub. My industry will be one of the last to be mechanised as the customer likes the interaction between humans. Bars could easily be ran by computers but people find them cold.
You are kidding
!Please give me an automated system where I select my drink, swipe my card, and out it comes. No longer being ignored/skipped over. No nose pickings in the drink. No "you gave me a tenner" rubbish.
Please someone make it happen asap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuVKUlRINzk
Having drank at it it takes a bit of getting used to, ordering your drink from a tablet, but it certainly does everything you want, apart from nuts or pork scratchings.
Pommygranite said:
any job that doesn't require 'thinking' to some great degree and is more just 'doing' is likely to be replaced in time.
Even some of the ones that (supposedly) require thinking and judgement are vulnerable - yet the benefits for the consumer are clear. have a look at this insurance claim example:https://blog.lemonade.com/2017/01/01/lemonade-sets...
Yet, those algorithms require some heuristics to work from. And that required real expertise to be codified. Someone, somewhere has got to be able to train the machines. Or at least judge the outputs of their learning.
If we lose the core skills, then what - exactly - are we replacing?
Personally, I think only those jobs that require manual labour and skill will be safe. The sorts of jobs where the environment is uncontrollable. You know, like steelworkers, or shipbuilders, or tailors, or... Oh. Wait.
dxg said:
Pommygranite said:
any job that doesn't require 'thinking' to some great degree and is more just 'doing' is likely to be replaced in time.
Even some of the ones that (supposedly) require thinking and judgement are vulnerable - yet the benefits for the consumer are clear. have a look at this insurance claim example:https://blog.lemonade.com/2017/01/01/lemonade-sets...
Yet, those algorithms require some heuristics to work from. And that required real expertise to be codified. Someone, somewhere has got to be able to train the machines. Or at least judge the outputs of their learning.
If we lose the core skills, then what - exactly - are we replacing?
Personally, I think only those jobs that require manual labour and skill will be safe. The sorts of jobs where the environment is uncontrollable. You know, like steelworkers, or shipbuilders, or tailors, or... Oh. Wait.
stuartmmcfc said:
MarshPhantom said:
stuartmmcfc said:
TBH I can't think of a single job that couldn't be done by .AI.
Seriously?The future is worrying.
Have you never seen Terminator?
Gassing Station | The Lounge | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff