Is your job at risk from A.I. ?

[Atomic12C]

There are a lot of news feeds relating to Artificial Intelligence replacing jobs in the near future, with even Elon Musk stating something along the lines that many jobs will be lost to automation by the year 2050.

BUT, the problem I see with this is that if companies are to replace people with machines, then people are not able to earn.
Which means people are then not able to buy company's products or services.

So it would seem to be a move to shoot one's self in the foot for companies to replace people with machines at the promise of "profit increase".


Would others agree?

[GroundEffect]

Many jobs already are.

[stuartmmcfc]

There will have to be a "wage" paid as a benefit to allow consumers to keep it all going.

[MitchT]

The machines would have to be part owned by the (now ex) workers so they could reap some of the profits generated by said machines. Otherwise, the 1% who owned the companies that owned the machines would be the only people with any money at all and would have to be taxed at 99% to cover the collossal unemployment bill that had to be paid.

It's like most things - it could revolutionise life and lead to everyone having enough money and loads of spare time, but in reality the 1% will hijack it for their own gains and everyone else will be left with just about enough not to die.

[Terminator X]

The first problem is that imho Govt's seem more focused on helping businesses vs people which is of course coming to a head with Brexit, Trump etc.

The 2nd is that in the past technology has come along and people have simply moved on to AN Other job. If you take autonomous cars for example then it will likely take millions of jobs as it arrives eg taxi drivers, bus drivers, deliveries etc. Will all of these people get another job? Not being funny but if all you can do to earn a living is drive then what are your chances of ever earning a reasonable wage again ...

The 3rd is that technology is getting clever bloody quickly and even today clever algorithms can and will take up the jobs of people doing "skilled" work; we are truly fked when "intelligent" robots arrive. This has not happened in the past imho as tech generally has gathered up manual tasks. Afaik various Google etc programmes are making medical diagnosis quite accurately even today which surely is a massive worry for people working in medicine.

I agree with you that it is a huge problem coming over the hill - who will pay for these products or indeed taxes to the Govt or indeed unemployment benefit to everyone laid off?

TX.

[davek_964]

GroundEffect said:

Many jobs already are.

Exactly. Musks cars will mostly be built by robots - go back 50(?) years and that wasn't true. It's basically just a continuation of what's already been happening for years.

Even if it wasn't AI and robots, there is no such thing as a job for life these days. When I started work, computers / software was a hot thing and it was an excellent career choice. Now, it's far more likely that your job will disappear to India or China simply because it's cheaper.

[Munter]

One of the original thoughts about these computer things was that we'd all have a lot more leisure time when the computers and robots do the work.

Then the economics was considered to be a bit tricky but you can't stop progress.

Now we're 30-40 years down the line...

Of course all those books said we'd be living in space and no longer need money by the year 2000, so that'll help.

[okgo]

Computers generally rapidly taking over jobs. Even McDonalds in down the road from me now has one person on the check out vs 5 because everyone orders from a huge touchscreen thing and then just waits for it to be made and their number shouted, like Argos. That's happened in the last 6 months, and I would imagine has meant that each McDonalds can probably operate with at least 3 fewer till staff even in a small local one like mine.

My actual job is flogging the AI/smart tech to people, so I'll be ok for a little while hopefully!

[Terminator X]

Burn him!

TX.

[Whitean3]

okgo said:

Computers generally rapidly taking over jobs. Even McDonalds in down the road from me now has one person on the check out vs 5 because everyone orders from a huge touchscreen thing and then just waits for it to be made and their number shouted, like Argos. That's happened in the last 6 months, and I would imagine has meant that each McDonalds can probably operate with at least 3 fewer till staff even in a small local one like mine.

My actual job is flogging the AI/smart tech to people, so I'll be ok for a little while hopefully!

I was surprised at Gatwick airport returning home (to Switzerland) last week- all the check ins for Easyjet are computers, with a very small number of assistants on hand to troubleshoot.

My job wouldn't be made obsolete by AI; but it would certainly make a big difference and there would likely be a reduction in headcount

[okgo]

Yep, I've noticed that too. And its far better for it too!

Already happened to most of the banks I've seen. Natwest now have mainly machines vs people, Post Office the same - certainly some teething issues, but once its all ironed out these are essentially rooms of computers with a handful of staff required just to make sure the public aren't being too retarded.

[sherman]

I work in a pub. My industry will be one of the last to be mechanised as the customer likes the interaction between humans. Bars could easily be ran by computers but people find them cold.

[stuartmmcfc]

sherman said:

I work in a pub. My industry will be one of the last to be mechanised as the customer likes the interaction between humans. Bars could easily be ran by computers but people find them cold.

If the beer in an automated pub is half the price?

[NRS]

MitchT said:

The machines would have to be part owned by the (now ex) workers so they could reap some of the profits generated by said machines. Otherwise, the 1% who owned the companies that owned the machines would be the only people with any money at all and would have to be taxed at 99% to cover the collossal unemployment bill that had to be paid.

It's like most things - it could revolutionise life and lead to everyone having enough money and loads of spare time, but in reality the 1% will hijack it for their own gains and everyone else will be left with just about enough not to die.

I don't think that will be the case (the last bit). You'd get a revolution if the gap becomes too big. It's effectively what we have seen with Trump and Brexit - a mini-revolution against globalisation and robots/AI reducing the amount of jobs and therefore pay for people.

It means in the future we'd probably have to do the universal wage as you suggest, or pay people a wage similar to now, but for say a 5 hour week. The real pain is going to be getting to the point that enough people support it and the transition - which will be very painful and could be very messy. For example if you start up a universal wage in just one country then in effect the unemployed/poor from other countries will pour into the country unless the borders are closed (which is against the EU position at the moment for example). If the borders were not closed it would mean it was unaffordable for those paying tax to actually cover the costs due to the imbalance between unemployed and working. Not to mention pressure from those working against high tax rates. Most likely the tax rates would have to be on the companies instead for example - but that is difficult as countries are competing to attract companies and so will want to charge low rates.

Personally my job is difficult for AI to take over as it is create thinking whilst combining lots of data/subjects, but it is likely to reduce the number of people needed. However since it's oil related there is a question on how long there will be a similar demand for the oil itself (at current levels).

[Terminator X]

stuartmmcfc said:

sherman said:

I work in a pub. My industry will be one of the last to be mechanised as the customer likes the interaction between humans. Bars could easily be ran by computers but people find them cold.

If the beer in an automated pub is half the price?

Automated Costa coffee at a service station is the same price!

TX.

[Eric Mc]

I do hope so.

[dimots]

Automated pubs would be great but I'm not sure I relish the prospect of robot bouncers.

[Gorilla Boy]

Nope, always going to need engineers to fix and improve systems/machinery

[Munter]

sherman said:

I work in a pub. My industry will be one of the last to be mechanised as the customer likes the interaction between humans. Bars could easily be ran by computers but people find them cold.

You are kidding!

Please give me an automated system where I select my drink, swipe my card, and out it comes. No longer being ignored/skipped over. No nose pickings in the drink. No "you gave me a tenner" rubbish.

Please someone make it happen asap.

[Alex]

This is known as the "Luddite Fallacy". The reality is that technology and automation increase productivity and human workers take on new roles.