Explain Water divining

[B Huey]

I used to be able to do dowsing (finding metallic objects using two lengths of copper IIRC).

I haven't tried it in years, can't explain it but it used to work.

ETA. I am a confirmed anti-mumbo jumboist.

Edited by B Huey on Wednesday 22 February 07:03

[Gaspode]

The Excession said:

I think I ought to get 90% correct, 9 out of 10 correct for it to count (perhaps 10/10 if I'm allowed to dowse my own number in my own envelope ).

Close doesn't count, I either get it right or get I it wrong.

What do you think?

This thread could go down in the PH legendary threads as being the one where I never dare post on these forums again! As said, I don't know if I can do it but in the interest of research I'll lay my self on the bench and give it a go.

I see that you have already accepted 10/10 as being the only sensible target to go for. If your dowsing technique works, then it works, then any reasonable assessment should be based on a perfect score. A single run at this, however is insufficient to demonstrate that this couldn't be expected to fall inside the sphere of chance. You'd have to repeat this a large number of times and get a perfect score to demonstrate it's a reliable technique.

Here's an idea: You will have 10 digits, and the names of 10 PHers. Why not use your dowsing technique to correctly match the 10 digits to the 10 people, and then use it to identify their dates of birth?

Edited by Gaspode on Wednesday 22 February 10:08

[BarnatosGhost]

Take ten posters from this thread and allocate each a number from 1-10. Tell our hero the names and ask him to put them in the right order?

[carmonk]

don4l said:

carmonk said:

don4l said:

carmonk said:

don4l said:

There is a one in 512 chance of getting 9 heads in a row.

But there were 10 throws, which gives a 0.9% probability of 9 being right and one being wrong.

... erm...

So what?

There is still a one in 512 chance of getting 9 heads in a row.

Why do you think that I was wrong?

Because chance is based on expectation, not observation. On this occasion the expectation (or statement of intent) was to throw heads and ten throws were made, so the tenth has to be taken into account. After the fact, the pattern

HHHHHHHHHH

is just as likely as

THTTHHTHTH

or any other combination, and all have odds of 1024:1 against.

I'm a bit confused as to why you want to argue.

What do you think the odds of getting 9 heads in a row are?

Don
--

They're whatever you want them to be. Jesus.

[don4l]

carmonk said:

don4l said:

carmonk said:

don4l said:

carmonk said:

don4l said:

There is a one in 512 chance of getting 9 heads in a row.

But there were 10 throws, which gives a 0.9% probability of 9 being right and one being wrong.

... erm...

So what?

There is still a one in 512 chance of getting 9 heads in a row.

Why do you think that I was wrong?

Because chance is based on expectation, not observation. On this occasion the expectation (or statement of intent) was to throw heads and ten throws were made, so the tenth has to be taken into account. After the fact, the pattern

HHHHHHHHHH

is just as likely as

THTTHHTHTH

or any other combination, and all have odds of 1024:1 against.

I'm a bit confused as to why you want to argue.

What do you think the odds of getting 9 heads in a row are?

They're whatever you want them to be. Jesus.

No, they are one in 512, aren't they?

It doesn't matter if they are the first 9 in ten. It really doesn't make any difference if they are the first 9 in a hundred, or 9 in a thousand. The odds are still the same.

Don
--

[carmonk]

don4l said:

No, they are one in 512, aren't they?

It doesn't matter if they are the first 9 in ten. It really doesn't make any difference if they are the first 9 in a hundred, or 9 in a thousand. The odds are still the same.

Don
--

You clearly don't want to read the explanation I provided so we'll pretend you're right. You're not, you're totally wrong, but it's easier this way.

[hairykrishna]

don4l said:

No, they are one in 512, aren't they?

It doesn't matter if they are the first 9 in ten. It really doesn't make any difference if they are the first 9 in a hundred, or 9 in a thousand. The odds are still the same.

Don
--

The odds of throwing 9 heads in a row is 1/512. The odds of throwing 9 heads followed by a tails is 1/1024. The odds of 9 heads in 10 throws is 10/1024. But these are all specified before the coin's flipped. Assigning a probability post event isn't how it works.

The whole discussion was the odds of him getting 9 out of 10 correct. Hence the correct one to use is 10/1024. The fact they were in order's irrelevant.

[f1rob]

carmonk said:

You either believe you can do it or you don't. If you do then go for that prize. If you don't then you're not in disagreement with anybody here.

And for the record I have tried it. In the interest of research and fairness I also tried Lethbridge's pendulum experiments. Neither set of experiments gave the slightest indication of success.

To put it in a PH context if I do a few track days and a few driver training days does that make me a racing driver ? I dont think it does but it gives me a small amount of experiance of the subject
Its the same with the water divining,I have been shown it,and tried it myself and shown it to others but wouldnt call myself a diviner im just passing on my experiance of the subject
I dont want to be in disagreement with anyone but I cant alter what I have seen and tried to make other people happy

[f1rob]

BarnatosGhost said:

Would you accept $1m to prove that you're brilliant at composites and car builds?

Well built and ran cars for Mansell,Senna,Haikkinen,Herbert,and Barrichello to name a few,still dip my toe in F1 now and again but after twenty years moved on and the last 10 years won Le Mans with Bentley,moved onto the Toureg and won the Dakar and done the chassis for the A4DTM,s,Creation motorsport,Zytec and A1GP

Think I can hold my own

[TheHeretic]

f1rob said:

BarnatosGhost said:

Would you accept $1m to prove that you're brilliant at composites and car builds?

Well built and ran cars for Mansell,Senna,Haikkinen,Herbert,and Barrichello to name a few,still dip my toe in F1 now and again but after twenty years moved on and the last 10 years won Le Mans with Bentley,moved onto the Toureg and won the Dakar and done the chassis for the A4DTM,s,Creation motorsport,Zytec and A1GP

Think I can hold my own

I think you missed his point.

[S13_Alan]

TheHeretic said:

I think you missed his point.

I'm slightly disappointed you didn't make use of the Woosh Parrot

[The Excession]

OK I'm ready.....

Despite all the talk of heads & tails and probabillities, I'm ready.

Did we go with the ten numbers in ten envelopes with ten different people? Or did we go with 10 people arranged in a list with one number each?

Let me know when you all are all ready to start the test, because at the moment all we have is a bunch of people bickering about probabillities on a thread called 'Explain water diving' which (admittedly) I side tracked by asking for a test of some number divining.

But hey ho. When you're ready.

[Gaspode]

Start with me. I've chosen a number. What is it?

[carmonk]

7. And if you say it isn't then you changed your mind because my woo powers are infallible.

[TheHeretic]

Purple... Oh wait, I'm doing it wrong.

[Gaspode]

carmonk said:

7. And if you say it isn't then you changed your mind because my woo powers are infallible.

Ha! Puny earthling! Your so called powers of woo are but naught when confronted by the awesomeness of my mighty pendulum of precognition! I foresaw weeks back that you would think that I would choose 7, so I didn't.

[carmonk]

Gaspode said:

carmonk said:

7. And if you say it isn't then you changed your mind because my woo powers are infallible.

Ha! Puny earthling! Your so called powers of woo are but naught when confronted by the awesomeness of my mighty pendulum of precognition! I foresaw weeks back that you would think that I would choose 7, so I didn't.

Ah, so it's probably a 1 than you wrote a bit like a 7.

Or 7 is actually 'seven' which has 5 letters so the answer's 5.

And if that's not right then you thought of 7 subconsciously and that's what I'm picking up on, so I was actually right.

See, when you're psychic (or religious) you can invent the rules as you go and never be wrong.

[Gaspode]

carmonk said:

Ah, so it's probably a 1 than you wrote a bit like a 7.

Or 7 is actually 'seven' which has 5 letters so the answer's 5.

And if that's not right then you thought of 7 subconsciously and that's what I'm picking up on, so I was actually right.

See, when you're psychic (or religious) you can invent the rules as you go and never be wrong.

[The Excession]

Gaspode said:

carmonk said:

Ah, so it's probably a 1 than you wrote a bit like a 7.

Or 7 is actually 'seven' which has 5 letters so the answer's 5.

And if that's not right then you thought of 7 subconsciously and that's what I'm picking up on, so I was actually right.

See, when you're psychic (or religious) you can invent the rules as you go and never be wrong.

Bugger... you mean he got it right?

So let's do it! One person here needs to assign numbers to ten posters' names from this thread.

Write them on a bit of paper, take a pic, or at least distribute the list to some other posters.

Once that is done, I'll get out my Jedi Ninja dowsing tools, prove you all wrong by correctly prediticting it all and everything. Meanwhile if one of you leaks me me the list I'll keep very quiet about it all apart from the bit where I'll repeatedly post the right answers with "WOOO WOOO WHAADDYA THINK OF THAT EH???"

[don4l]

The Excession said:

Bugger... you mean he got it right?

So let's do it! One person here needs to assign numbers to ten posters' names from this thread.

Write them on a bit of paper, take a pic, or at least distribute the list to some other posters.

Once that is done, I'll get out my Jedi Ninja dowsing tools, prove you all wrong by correctly prediticting it all and everything. Meanwhile if one of you leaks me me the list I'll keep very quiet about it all apart from the bit where I'll repeatedly post the right answers with "WOOO WOOO WHAADDYA THINK OF THAT EH???"

OK!

List completed and photo taken.

Get guessing!

Don
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