life out there?
Discussion
Eric Mc said:
Explain why it's not just better quality guessing then.
Don't forget that probability theory was a key tool used in determining the probable behaviour of markets in the world of international banking and debt management - and look what happened there.
That to me shows that just throwing lots of fancy formulae at a problem does not always mean you are going to come up with a better or more accurate answer.
Are you seriously suggesting that probability doesn't allow us to predict the future?!Don't forget that probability theory was a key tool used in determining the probable behaviour of markets in the world of international banking and debt management - and look what happened there.
That to me shows that just throwing lots of fancy formulae at a problem does not always mean you are going to come up with a better or more accurate answer.
TX.
We may have estimated the probability of life elsewhere using Drake's equation but this probability is an estimate. We then scale this probability to estimate the number of planets harbouring life but unless we can validate that underlying probability then it remains a complete shot in the dark.
We do not know what conditions are required for life to begin, only that it did at some location/s in the past. Life either exists elsewhere or not - I suspect we would find evidence of life (if it exists) long before we understand how to estimate all of the parameters needed to estimate the probability of its existence.
'Believing' that life exists elsewhere is verging on 'faith' and is not science.
We do not know what conditions are required for life to begin, only that it did at some location/s in the past. Life either exists elsewhere or not - I suspect we would find evidence of life (if it exists) long before we understand how to estimate all of the parameters needed to estimate the probability of its existence.
'Believing' that life exists elsewhere is verging on 'faith' and is not science.
On the subject of the actual search for other intelligent life, I have a suspicion that by looking for radio or laser emissions we are wasting our time. I think an advanced civilisation will have moved on to other means of communication, for example based on quantum entanglement, and developing civilisations only use electromagnetic radiation for communications fr a relatively short time. It would add another variable to the Drake equation - the lifespan of radio communications.
Unless of course a civilisation deliberately transmits such primitive signals to get the attention of less advanced races like ourselves...
Unless of course a civilisation deliberately transmits such primitive signals to get the attention of less advanced races like ourselves...
ash73 said:
I would prefer we find a habitable planet with no life on it. Earth is getting crowded, and resources limited; we need to spread our wings and remove a single point of failure. It would require multiple generations to evolve any immunity to alien bacteria. The ideal would be a completely blank canvas, with a temperate climate, we can populate with terrestrial life.
If there was no life on it there wouldn't be any 'alien bacteria'... 
Having just been to Canada, Earth is certainly not crowded - it's just that it's badly distributed.
I think, if I was setting off to fnd a habitable plant, I'd like a good choice of green vegetation, but no animals bigger than friendly cat-like things
I guess the concept of Utopia is the oldest fantasy of all.
ash73 said:
Alien life would either be a threat, or just get in the way. If they find life on Mars everyone will want to preserve it, which would prevent us experimenting with terraforming.
Of course in these fluffy PC idealist days you'd be expected to integrate the alien life within your own community, or be sent to jail for racism if you failed to comply.I think that when push comes to shove, alien life would either be an ally (if useful), or be eaten for food, or destroyed (if a threat).
Yes, life. Even intelligent life. However, considering the massive scale of the universe we as a species will never encounter intelligent lifeforms.
That's my guess; the distance is literally a killer. We need to secure and ensure our own planets wellbeing first.
Edit: on the communication via radio, I believe this is a no go too. Aren't the furthest radio waves travelled from earth on 200 lightyears away? It's a pin head in our galaxy. Which gives a good idea of how pointless this sort of searching would be. I'm surprised that Hawking endorsed the latest 'search'.
That's my guess; the distance is literally a killer. We need to secure and ensure our own planets wellbeing first.
Edit: on the communication via radio, I believe this is a no go too. Aren't the furthest radio waves travelled from earth on 200 lightyears away? It's a pin head in our galaxy. Which gives a good idea of how pointless this sort of searching would be. I'm surprised that Hawking endorsed the latest 'search'.
Edited by PD9 on Tuesday 21st July 00:15
If you include the earliest experiments with electricity you could say the earliest man made electrical signals would date back around 200 years - but they were accidental by products of the messing about they were doing with primitive batteries etc at that time - and wouldn't have been very strong either.
If you draw a sphere of 105 light years around our sun, how many stars fall into that sphere. And now that we know for sure that planets are pretty common, how many planets fall into that sphere.
If you draw a sphere of 105 light years around our sun, how many stars fall into that sphere. And now that we know for sure that planets are pretty common, how many planets fall into that sphere.
And the method of transmission, dish vs long wave, analogue vs digital, modulation methods etc. The Earths atmosphere is the biggest issue for local global stuff, the satellite TV does around 36,000km but the last leg is the clincher (of course it must be considered both ways because the signal needs to get there first).
What I wonder is how far from a big dish will the signal be coherent, will it ever degrade. Dishes have certain characteristics as will a main TV transmitter.
Coupled with that analogue used a lot more power but digital needs less and the signal is a lot "smaller" for want of a better term.
What I wonder is how far from a big dish will the signal be coherent, will it ever degrade. Dishes have certain characteristics as will a main TV transmitter.
Coupled with that analogue used a lot more power but digital needs less and the signal is a lot "smaller" for want of a better term.
That is the thing with evolution, at least evolution on this planet. Does the same arms race happen elsewhere? I say arms race, when watching documentaries on dinosaurs, they liken evolution to an arms race. I develop teeth to get at the meat, the meat develops bony plates, I develop claws to deal with plates, the meat developed horns to up the ante.
Prof Prolapse said:
It's simple probability. You don't even need the numbers.
1) Are the conditions required for life unique? - No.
2) Are the conditions required for the development of intelligent life unique? - Almost certainly no.
3) Is the universe mindboggling f
king massive? - Yes.
4) Does this mean intelligent life is likely to exist elsewhere? - Yes.
5) Does this mean we are likely to find other intelligent life? - No, see (3).
There is also a 3a:1) Are the conditions required for life unique? - No.
2) Are the conditions required for the development of intelligent life unique? - Almost certainly no.
3) Is the universe mindboggling f
king massive? - Yes.4) Does this mean intelligent life is likely to exist elsewhere? - Yes.
5) Does this mean we are likely to find other intelligent life? - No, see (3).
3a) For those planets with life - how many have a species that despite being intelligent - are technologically advanced enough for us to be able to detect them - and how long do they remain that way?
Life has existed on this planet for around 3.5 billion years. Humans have existed for around 200,000 of those - yet we have only been transmitting radio signals that would be detectable by another civilisation for little over 100 years.
How long will be be using radio for? Will there come a point in the near future that our planet will fall silent once more?
Even if every star in our galaxy had planets that harboured life at some point in
their history - and even if a significant portion of them harboured intelligent life, the chances of us overlapping in time (taking into account light travel time) from a technological perspective so as to make them detectable to us, us detectable to them, or both - are fairly remote. We may only have detection windows of a few hundred years for any given technological civilisation.
Edited by Moonhawk on Tuesday 21st July 09:27
Probably a good enough description but it is enacted over ages (in my limited understanding). We are the pinnacle at the moment and that took a change in diet (as I understand it) for our brains to start to think outside the box of fight or flight but still with strings attached. We cannot go toe to toe with a lion obviously, we took another direction. But will that direction always be the result of evolution? That is to say run the same conditions again and this time we turn into cheat beating sprinters but with the IQ of Big Brother contestant.
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