Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

[Isotopologue]

Gadgetmac said:

Isotopologue said:

Lotus 50 said:

Gadgetmac said:

The really concerning thing is that he apparently marks Uni students papers.

Hopefully not in Geography!

A big plus is that Diderot isn't plagiarising from Wikipedia by copying and pasting text without attribution and a second one is that links to the original material were actually provided.

...the bad news is that (as durbs keeps pointing out) he's invariably wrong, doesnt answer straight questions and resorts to waffling in an archaic middle European language no longer in general usage as if it's some kind of legitimate response to the question posed.

Who's plagiarising Wiki without attribution?

Same person doing it again in response to a question asking what they understood on a particular topic. Leaving the reference numbers in is a bit of a giveaway - but no quote marks, citation of source, etc. Just simply taking the work of others without providing due credit.

[kerplunk]

Was just browsing Marc Morano's propaganda blog Climate Depot and saw this article on arctic sea ice in summer by Meteorologist Paul Doran

https://www.climatedepot.com/2024/03/04/arctic-sea...

With the headline:

Arctic sea ice continues to show resiliency…nearly normal temperatures in summer (melting) season holds the key to its holding firm

And this graph of near surface air temps above 80N (the arctic 'centre spot'):



Can anyone provide a better analysis than what Paul Doran has provided?

I've provided a hint below

The headline is precisely backwards

[kerplunk]

No takers?

Here's are seasonal time series of the +80N ERA40 data from DMI





Lots of warming since the nineties in Autumn/Winter/Spring and high variabilty, but in summer temps have hugged Zero C with little variability for 60+ years and counting

Why?

(unlike the first graph these time series are anomaly values, but the summer absolute temps are near zero C every year as per the first graph)

Edited by kerplunk on Monday 11th March 11:09

[Lotus 50]

The energy required to melt the ice that is there keeps the temps down in summer?

Edited by Lotus 50 on Tuesday 12th March 10:42

[kerplunk]

Lotus 50 said:

The energy required to melt the ice that is there keeps the temps down in summer?

Edited by Lotus 50 on Tuesday 12th March 10:42

Correct - when temps reach zero C in summer the thermal energy goes into the ice to water phase change - melting

If/when the sea ice melts completely in summer the temperature clipping effect will cease allowing surface air temps to rise.

So the headline is precisely backwards - the key to temps holding firm in summer is the presence of ice!

The article also misdirects on basic physics by suggesting that increasing temps in the other 9 months doesn't matter for the sea ice because temps are well below freezing. The amount of ice that forms in the refreeze season is affected by those temperature increases

[Lotus 50]

Yep, and the decreasing ice volume is interesting/important in that it suggests that it could get to a point where a large change in ice cover could take place quickly. So not only would the heat requirement to melt the ice go but also the reflectivity of the ice itself would significantly reduce.

Interesting to see the apparent effect of AMO though... need to understand that more.

Edited by Lotus 50 on Tuesday 12th March 13:32

[Toltec]

This is more climate change adjacent in environmental terms, but I thought you may find it interesting.

"Earth and Mars are close in planetary terms. When their orbits align, Mars passes within a mere 33.9 million miles (54.6 million kilometers) of our blue marble. New research on deep ocean sediments suggests the gravity of the fourth planet could impact the ebb and flow of currents. This could point to a "grand cycle" of 2.4 million years in our oceans controlled by Mars's orbit. "

https://www.extremetech.com/science/mars-may-cause...

[Lotus 50]

Toltec said:

This is more climate change adjacent in environmental terms, but I thought you may find it interesting.

"Earth and Mars are close in planetary terms. When their orbits align, Mars passes within a mere 33.9 million miles (54.6 million kilometers) of our blue marble. New research on deep ocean sediments suggests the gravity of the fourth planet could impact the ebb and flow of currents. This could point to a "grand cycle" of 2.4 million years in our oceans controlled by Mars's orbit. "

https://www.extremetech.com/science/mars-may-cause...

Interesting - as an aside, if you've ever looked into the calculation of tides the calcs involved are much more complex than just looking at the Sun & Moon vs Earth and include the other planets.

[kerplunk]

Climastrology

[Toltec]

kerplunk said:

Climastrology

Climastronomy please.

[Brother D]

This was interesting. Not sure if it falls under the scientific or political debate threads...

"Yale researcher Dan Kahan studied the personality and cultural differences of Americans and found a fascinating distinct cluster: white hierarchical individualistic men

Making up around 1/6th of the population, this cluster has markedly different views about risk, guns, environment, and more.

For example, here's white hierarchical men on climate change vs everyone else:

[Getragdogleg]

Brother D said:

This was interesting. Not sure if it falls under the scientific or political debate threads...

"Yale researcher Dan Kahan studied the personality and cultural differences of Americans and found a fascinating distinct cluster: white hierarchical individualistic men

Making up around 1/6th of the population, this cluster has markedly different views about risk, guns, environment, and more.

For example, here's white hierarchical men on climate change vs everyone else:

It will be spun as a negative thing, a "look at these idiots" sort of deal but the other side of the argument could counter that these are the people who don't give a st and can take care of themselves, are not worried about it because they are the type to solve the immediate problems and survive, which is what humanity has been doing since year dot.

[durbster]

Getragdogleg said:

Brother D said:

This was interesting. Not sure if it falls under the scientific or political debate threads...

"Yale researcher Dan Kahan studied the personality and cultural differences of Americans and found a fascinating distinct cluster: white hierarchical individualistic men

Making up around 1/6th of the population, this cluster has markedly different views about risk, guns, environment, and more.

For example, here's white hierarchical men on climate change vs everyone else:

It will be spun as a negative thing, a "look at these idiots" sort of deal but the other side of the argument could counter that these are the people who don't give a st and can take care of themselves, are not worried about it because they are the type to solve the immediate problems and survive, which is what humanity has been doing since year dot.

That doesn't make sense. People who tell themselves there is no problem are not the people who solve problems.

[jshell]

Maybe a bit left-field, but popping up on feeds every so often has been this recent oceanic temperature anomoly where we are seeing a real outlier in terms of temperature rises with a step-change unherd of. At first I thought it was just someone playing with the models to ramp the fear, but on looking at it it appears genuine.

On reflection though, I thought that what we are seeing simply cannot be a result of solar energy absorption, rather it would be more likely an exothermal input, perhaps due to tectonic or volcanic activity. As if by magic, an update to a piece published in March was released. I thought it may be of interest:

https://theethicalskeptic.com/2020/02/16/the-clima...

[Getragdogleg]

durbster said:

That doesn't make sense. People who tell themselves there is no problem are not the people who solve problems.

They solve problems for themselves, often don't go looking for additional problems nor make the solution harder than the actual problem.

In summary, the sort of person who would survive if society fell apart.

[durbster]

Getragdogleg said:

durbster said:

That doesn't make sense. People who tell themselves there is no problem are not the people who solve problems.

They solve problems for themselves, often don't go looking for additional problems nor make the solution harder than the actual problem.

In summary, the sort of person who would survive if society fell apart.

The idea of the lone warrior roaming the landscape surviving on ruggedness and shotgun skills is a Hollywood trope but I doubt it'd play out in reality.

If society really fell apart, the ones who survived would be the ones who gathered together to look after each other. Strength in numbers with a diversity of ideas and abilities.

Humans are a social species. The fact we evolved in groups is evidence that the ones who survived were actually the ones who looked out for other people. People who aren't solving problems unless it affects them aren't very useful in a society.

Edit: it'd be an interesting topic for a thread that

Edited by durbster on Friday 22 March 12:44

[hairykrishna]

Getragdogleg said:

durbster said:

That doesn't make sense. People who tell themselves there is no problem are not the people who solve problems.

They solve problems for themselves, often don't go looking for additional problems nor make the solution harder than the actual problem.

In summary, the sort of person who would survive if society fell apart.

I'm not aware of any research that suggests that "white hierarchical individualistic men" have the traits you ascribe to them. The paper that shows they're not very concerned about climate change also seems to suggest that they are quite worried about environmental regulations, regulation of private gun ownership and terrorist attacks. I don't think that the paper implies anything about intelligence.

Edited by hairykrishna on Friday 22 March 20:21

[Getragdogleg]

hairykrishna said:

Getragdogleg said:

durbster said:

That doesn't make sense. People who tell themselves there is no problem are not the people who solve problems.

They solve problems for themselves, often don't go looking for additional problems nor make the solution harder than the actual problem.

In summary, the sort of person who would survive if society fell apart.

I'm not aware of any research that suggests that "white hierarchical individualistic men" have the traits you ascribe to them. The paper that shows they're not very concerned about climate change also seems to suggest that they are quite worried about environmental regulations, regulation of private gun ownership and terrorist attacks. I don't think that the paper implies anything about intelligence.

Nor should it mean we make assumptions about intelligence and leap to the conclusion they are thick because their opinions are different.

Its entirely possible they believe Climate change is natural or not worth worrying about and "regulations" are "the Man" placing more controls over their freedoms and using climate as the excuse to do so.

[kerplunk]

Gavin Schmidt scratching his head


"For the past nine months, mean land and sea surface temperatures have overshot previous records each month by up to 0.2 °C — a huge margin at the planetary scale. A general warming trend is expected because of rising greenhouse-gas emissions, but this sudden heat spike greatly exceeds predictions made by statistical climate models that rely on past observations. Many reasons for this discrepancy have been proposed but, as yet, no combination of them has been able to reconcile our theories with what has happened."

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00816-z

oops wrong link

Edited by kerplunk on Thursday 28th March 11:14

[Brother D]