Discussion
llewop said:
The odd thing, with respect to the half-lives is that the report on BBC is talking about thyroid cancers, it implies 400 or so within the last 10 years in Belarus. But iodine isotopes - associated with thyroid cancers - mostly have half-lives of less than 2 months so would be gone within the first year or two at worst. The thyroid cancer would be expected to develop fairly quickly after that.
Which is consistent with a presentation I saw on Friday by a guy from UNSCEAR which showed a huge spike in thyroid issues in the late 80s and it dropping to pre-accident levels more recently.
What they're referring to there is the statistical increase in risk associated with the radiation dose. The actual half life of the isotope isn't relevant. Which is consistent with a presentation I saw on Friday by a guy from UNSCEAR which showed a huge spike in thyroid issues in the late 80s and it dropping to pre-accident levels more recently.
As it was such a large release much of the population received doses too small to cause short or medium term illnesses or injuries, too small to cause an immediate cancer.
IrateNinja said:
llewop said:
The odd thing, with respect to the half-lives is that the report on BBC is talking about thyroid cancers, it implies 400 or so within the last 10 years in Belarus. But iodine isotopes - associated with thyroid cancers - mostly have half-lives of less than 2 months so would be gone within the first year or two at worst. The thyroid cancer would be expected to develop fairly quickly after that.
Which is consistent with a presentation I saw on Friday by a guy from UNSCEAR which showed a huge spike in thyroid issues in the late 80s and it dropping to pre-accident levels more recently.
What they're referring to there is the statistical increase in risk associated with the radiation dose. The actual half life of the isotope isn't relevant. Which is consistent with a presentation I saw on Friday by a guy from UNSCEAR which showed a huge spike in thyroid issues in the late 80s and it dropping to pre-accident levels more recently.
As it was such a large release much of the population received doses too small to cause short or medium term illnesses or injuries, too small to cause an immediate cancer.
BBC article said:
In more than a decade's work as a paediatrician in Britain, Dr Furley has seen two children with thyroid tumours.
Roughly half of the 800 children her charity assists in the Gomel region have developed thyroid cancer.
The half life of the isotope is very relevant when the isotope most associated with thyroid cancers from reactor accidents is I-131 with an 8 day half life; and is only generated in the reactor whilst at power. Therefore even a few months after the accident I-131 levels would drop to insignificance. The data and information I'm aware of (from the likes of UNSCEAR, World Health Organisation, Chernobyl Forum) shows the increase in childhood thyroid cancers in the period post accident, then reducing childhood thyroid cancers since then and post ~ 2002 childhood thyroid cancers have returned to pre-accident levels. The suggestion in the article is that there are currently or recently approximately 400 cases of childhood thyroid cancer in Belarus, my point is that this isn't consistent with WHO etc information, nor the known characteristics of radio-iodine caused thyroid cancers.Roughly half of the 800 children her charity assists in the Gomel region have developed thyroid cancer.
I don't disagree that the statistical increased risk of cancer associated with radiation dose takes half life out of the equation by the committed effective dose model. There also appears to generally be at least a 3-4 year latency period for thyroid cancers anyway, so very few were immediate.
I may be just looking at the article as written too specifically and presuming that the number of cancers during her involvement are as appears to be stated 'children', rather than 'were children at the time of the accident, are now adults and have developed thyroid cancer', but as it states '800 children her charity assists' that seems to me to be the individuals are currently children.
If anyone is reading this and think I'm being defensive or picky - I possibly am, but because what seem to be presented as facts/associated information do not make sense from a technical point of view.
llewop said:
If anyone is reading this and think I'm being defensive or picky - I possibly am, but because what seem to be presented as facts/associated information do not make sense from a technical point of view.
And those that made the fateful decisions 30 yreas ago probably felt the same.Sylvaforever said:
And those that made the fateful decisions 30 yreas ago probably felt the same.
No, the decisions made then and earlier - since it was a poor design, were in some cases made due to lack of information or understanding.Thankfully I have nothing to do with operating reactors, Although I did get to play with a baby one a long time ago. I am more interested in trying to help demystify radiation and what it can do to us.
Here's the UNSCEAR report:
http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/2008/11-80076_...
There's a very detailed breakdown of thyroid cancers associated with the accident from page 60.
http://www.unscear.org/docs/reports/2008/11-80076_...
There's a very detailed breakdown of thyroid cancers associated with the accident from page 60.
llewop said:
No, the decisions made then and earlier - since it was a poor design, were in some cases made due to lack of information or understanding.
Thankfully I have nothing to do with operating reactors, Although I did get to play with a baby one a long time ago. I am more interested in trying to help demystify radiation and what it can do to us.
I was under the impression they were trying to increase backup coolant pumping times - it seems strange it had to happen whilst trying to make it safer on a reactor with no containment structure (biggest flaw?) Thankfully I have nothing to do with operating reactors, Although I did get to play with a baby one a long time ago. I am more interested in trying to help demystify radiation and what it can do to us.
Poisson96 said:
I was under the impression they were trying to increase backup coolant pumping times - it seems strange it had to happen whilst trying to make it safer on a reactor with no containment structure (biggest flaw?)
they were trying to test cooling without pumps, so auto circulation or something like that, but because they'd messed about they had ended up outside of the normal operating conditions so when it got away from them, there was no way back. Flawed design & operators probably didn't understand things well enough to realise the implications of what they were doing. And it was a nightshift, which with the best will in the world will inevitably have fewer people on duty and almost certainly those that perhaps did understand the operating envelope were not around at the time.llewop said:
Poisson96 said:
I was under the impression they were trying to increase backup coolant pumping times - it seems strange it had to happen whilst trying to make it safer on a reactor with no containment structure (biggest flaw?)
they were trying to test cooling without pumps, so auto circulation or something like that, but because they'd messed about they had ended up outside of the normal operating conditions so when it got away from them, there was no way back. Flawed design & operators probably didn't understand things well enough to realise the implications of what they were doing. And it was a nightshift, which with the best will in the world will inevitably have fewer people on duty and almost certainly those that perhaps did understand the operating envelope were not around at the time.I did some work on one in the late 90s. Fascinating things to look round.
Could the simple answer relate to gender?
Girls / Women are born with all their eggs and ovaries intact? A finite but over abundance of them that should last many lifetimes?
So there is every chance that every woman exposed to excess radiation will have children with birth defects?
But a bloke, who produces reproduces sperm on a regular basis could produce an uncorrupted genome after exposure to similar levels of radiation?
Girls / Women are born with all their eggs and ovaries intact? A finite but over abundance of them that should last many lifetimes?
So there is every chance that every woman exposed to excess radiation will have children with birth defects?
But a bloke, who produces reproduces sperm on a regular basis could produce an uncorrupted genome after exposure to similar levels of radiation?
Dark Pripyat is worth a read too:
http://www.urbanpixels.co.uk/dark-pripyat-availabl...
(It's free and there is a PDF version kicking about)
http://www.urbanpixels.co.uk/dark-pripyat-availabl...
(It's free and there is a PDF version kicking about)
Poisson96 said:
Zombie said:
BTW, my dream holiday would be a photo tour round Pripyat. That place looks AWESOME!!! Not sure about the cuisine though, I really don't like cabbage. 
Hmmmm...Chernobyl or DPRK..... either could be equally as fun/dangerousMartG said:
Just read it now and bought the book, in hard back of the back of it. Thanks for the link. 
ncaplin said:
You know you can actually tour the CEZ but you'll be on a very carefully planned route- which is, unfortunately, heavily bated for tourist photos. Particularly "urban explorer" types that love a good derelict photo opportunity. Plenty of creepy dolls have been planted around Pripryat alongside gas masks (which wouldn't have been distributed during the evacuation) but nevertheless strewn around for some post-apocalyptic atmos. The Ukrainians have mixed feelings about this for obvious reasons, but they're now seeing a mini tourist boom as a result.
I didn't know it was stage managed to that extent. 
Zombie said:
I didn't know it was stage managed to that extent.
It really is. The region is so poor it's a no-brainer to the locals to generate some income. I was super privileged to be able to go to areas outside of the tourist trail. Some of my pictures from there: https://www.instagram.com/chernobyldiary/
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