Discussion
ash73 said:
cymtriks said:
The total number of species on Earth, including extinct ones, is estimated as several billion and only one got as far as the wheel, fire or the lever.
Neanderthals had advanced flint tools and controlled fire, and were a separate species. If they hadn't gone extinct perhaps they could have developed more advanced technology.So I just doubled your estimate
Given the known start point for the universe, plus what we understand about stellar evolution, galaxy formation, element production and the hugely improbably chain of events that gave rise to us all sat here thinking about it, is it possible we are the first species to "go civilised"? It's a rather startling thought, but on the basis there must be a horizon before which life couldn't have existed, might we indeed be the first to have avoided the various cosmic bullets? There must've been one.
cymtriks said:
My estimate for Fi is 1E-10 (3 civilisations) to 1E-12 (just us, we're a freak event)
For some reason scientists seem to assume simple life will have occurred in numerous places but complex life is rare, hence your guess. This may be a legitimate hunch.Perhaps all life is rare but where it does occur it always develops into intelligent life? (For example, of all the known planets in the universe we only know of one with simple life... Earth)
Until we start to find many planets with only simple life (arguably this is even harder than finding intelligent life) the equation is greatly shifted into the favour of their being intelligent life despite what our best guess tells us- statistics triumphs logic again :-)
My best guess is that there is plenty of life out there and between the start and end of the universe there will exist many intelligent species but time and distance render any chance of detection, let alone contact down to a minute value.
Given the distances, value of C and projected lifespan of the Universe- every single planet that could support life and sire an intelligence could and none of them might ever detect or contact each other! Statistics for the win yet again!
hornet said:
Given the known start point for the universe, plus what we understand about stellar evolution, galaxy formation, element production and the hugely improbably chain of events that gave rise to us all sat here thinking about it, is it possible we are the first species to "go civilised"? It's a rather startling thought, but on the basis there must be a horizon before which life couldn't have existed, might we indeed be the first to have avoided the various cosmic bullets? There must've been one.
Could be - someone has to be first or further up the line of development.I find it hard to believe that we are the first or only 'intelligent' life in the universe though - there are many tales from mankinds history of visits from 'gods' and drawings/paintings of such things that look like spacecraft.
cymtriks said:
From the drake equation
N = R * Fp * Ne * Fe * Fi * Fc * L
R = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
Fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
Ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
Fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
Fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
Fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
Taking current estimates from Wikipedia, plus my own thoughts, we have
R = 7
Fp = 1
Ne = 1 - All stars have at least one planet or moon that can support life
Fl = 1 - Thermodynamics (Jeremy England's theory) apparently suggests it may be inevitable where conditions allow. It certainly started quickly on Earth.
Fi = very small
Fc = 1 - any advanced civilisation can be detected, they are sure to do, make or influence something in a way we can detect
L = 5 Billion years , any advanced civilisation ultimately removes all obstacles to its existence. However there are no civilisations older than 5 Billion as the heavier elements, required for life, were not present in the early universe.
So that gives
N = 35 Billion * Fi
The total number of species on Earth, including extinct ones, is estimated as several billion and only one got as far as the wheel, fire or the lever. Evolution needed several run ups to this state and we're due another mass extinction about now. If we'd been slightly later on the scene then that next big asteroid would wipe us out, as it is we are only just capable of dealing with it when it comes. The number of people that make significant technological contributions every generation is very small. In other species technical ability hardly exists at all. You don't need to look far down the list of animals known to use tools to see that any kind of technology, even just hitting something with a stick, is very rare. Given how many species there are on Earth it seems highly likely that Fi is less than a very small number.
My estimate for Fi is 1E-10 (3 civilisations) to 1E-12 (just us, we're a freak event)
With R being the average rate of star formation in our Galaxy - should'nt R be x by the number of Galaxys there are believed to be? thus your number 7 would be multiplied by 100 - 200 billion? (current guess range of galaxys)N = R * Fp * Ne * Fe * Fi * Fc * L
R = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
Fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
Ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
Fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
Fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
Fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
Taking current estimates from Wikipedia, plus my own thoughts, we have
R = 7
Fp = 1
Ne = 1 - All stars have at least one planet or moon that can support life
Fl = 1 - Thermodynamics (Jeremy England's theory) apparently suggests it may be inevitable where conditions allow. It certainly started quickly on Earth.
Fi = very small
Fc = 1 - any advanced civilisation can be detected, they are sure to do, make or influence something in a way we can detect
L = 5 Billion years , any advanced civilisation ultimately removes all obstacles to its existence. However there are no civilisations older than 5 Billion as the heavier elements, required for life, were not present in the early universe.
So that gives
N = 35 Billion * Fi
The total number of species on Earth, including extinct ones, is estimated as several billion and only one got as far as the wheel, fire or the lever. Evolution needed several run ups to this state and we're due another mass extinction about now. If we'd been slightly later on the scene then that next big asteroid would wipe us out, as it is we are only just capable of dealing with it when it comes. The number of people that make significant technological contributions every generation is very small. In other species technical ability hardly exists at all. You don't need to look far down the list of animals known to use tools to see that any kind of technology, even just hitting something with a stick, is very rare. Given how many species there are on Earth it seems highly likely that Fi is less than a very small number.
My estimate for Fi is 1E-10 (3 civilisations) to 1E-12 (just us, we're a freak event)
AshVX220 said:
ash73 said:
cymtriks said:
The total number of species on Earth, including extinct ones, is estimated as several billion and only one got as far as the wheel, fire or the lever.
Neanderthals had advanced flint tools and controlled fire, and were a separate species. If they hadn't gone extinct perhaps they could have developed more advanced technology.So I just doubled your estimate
superlightr said:
I find it hard to believe that we are the first or only 'intelligent' life in the universe though - there are many tales from mankinds history of visits from 'gods' and drawings/paintings of such things that look like spacecraft.
We could be the first.We could also be the only.
We can make a good guess at several of the values in the Drake equation, the big unknown is Fi. Going by all the non-tech life on Earth I honestly think that big brains is a freak result. We might be the once in a universe roll of the dice event.
If so this is actually excellent news. There are no rivals. It's all ours.
ash73 said:
I guess dinosaurs were a bit of a 150 million year dead-end, although Troodons were quite interesting. Perhaps they could have evolved further if the asteroid missed.
Actually they were anything but a dead end. They were a highly successful group that lasted a long time and diversified to fill a lot of niches. Their decedents, the birds, are still with us.Viewing evolving as increasing intelligence is a very anthropomorphic view. What about stronger limbs, thicker scales, wings, swimming, venom, camouflage, etc? All of these are vastly more common in the animal world and arguably more obvious results than the long game of intelligence.
Russian Rocket said:
we cant communicate effectively with other intelligent species on earth (the dolphins, and the white mice)
Communicating with aliens is going to be hard even if we find them
We can't even communicate effectively within our own species (and some say genders) at times.Communicating with aliens is going to be hard even if we find them
Russian Rocket said:
we cant communicate effectively with other intelligent species on earth (the dolphins, and the white mice)
Communicating with aliens is going to be hard even if we find them
Indeed.Communicating with aliens is going to be hard even if we find them
Considering how we treat the other animals, especially the ones with intelligence close to human, is depressing, can't even begin to see how we could cope with aliens.
Halb said:
Russian Rocket said:
we cant communicate effectively with other intelligent species on earth (the dolphins, and the white mice)
Communicating with aliens is going to be hard even if we find them
Indeed.Communicating with aliens is going to be hard even if we find them
Considering how we treat the other animals, especially the ones with intelligence close to human, is depressing, can't even begin to see how we could cope with aliens.
annodomini2 said:
Halb said:
Russian Rocket said:
we cant communicate effectively with other intelligent species on earth (the dolphins, and the white mice)
Communicating with aliens is going to be hard even if we find them
Indeed.Communicating with aliens is going to be hard even if we find them
Considering how we treat the other animals, especially the ones with intelligence close to human, is depressing, can't even begin to see how we could cope with aliens.
ash73 said:
I meant the Troodons were (relatively) smart and may evolve further in that direction, not better per se. Artist impression of a Dinosauroid, a possible evolutionary path from a Troodon
Way off topic, but interesting little diversion nonetheless. As more evidence has come to light that Troodons, along with most other therapod dinosaurs, are now thought to be feathered rather than the usual bare skin look, the Dinosauroid would probably look more like a man in a chicken suit. Also another poster made the comment about they'd probably be extinct anyway, well dinosaurs never became extinct, they're still running around in the form of birds. Just one of the many evolutionary branches one particular member of the dinosauria took and probably a close relative of the Troodons, none of which ever developed tool use beyond using sticks to fish out grubs from bark, which is remarkable in itself.Anyway, back on topic, I think if contact was ever made with an intelligent civilisation that the only really reliable method of communication, irrespective of the medium used to communicate, would be through mathematics. Like others have mentioned, even trying to communicate with the other species on this planet with appreciable levels of intelligence has been fruitless so would it be any different trying to communicate with an alien species? However, if they're technologically developed then they would have developed a fairly comprehensive understanding of maths and as physical laws remain constant throughout the universe it could almost be a universal Rosetta stone.....
We can only speculate until proof is delivered and then it may be easy or it may be hard.
I expect most people on the planet have bigger issues. I think we will find proof but no contact.
However, Mr Alien, zooming around the galaxy, it may well try to make contact with a rubbish bin first
many making script for a comedy film here......
Hang on, been done.
I expect most people on the planet have bigger issues. I think we will find proof but no contact.
However, Mr Alien, zooming around the galaxy, it may well try to make contact with a rubbish bin first
many making script for a comedy film here......Hang on, been done.
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