Interesting view of the future
Discussion
Home 3d printing is a bit crap, but commercial 3d printing isnt
Its doing very well at the high end - spacex printed rocket engines, aerospace etc and will work its way down through manufacturing as things get cheaper/improve.
Hopefully it will enable a new age of choice in goods, at the moment its expensive to set up production lines for mass production , once industrial 3d printing gets a good foothold you can vary product design and run smaller numbers easier.
Another interesting thing is the abilities of $20,000 robots, things have come on heaps to a point where theres talk about replacing burger flipping spotty youths with them.
Its certainly going to be a crazy next 10-20 years.
Its doing very well at the high end - spacex printed rocket engines, aerospace etc and will work its way down through manufacturing as things get cheaper/improve.
Hopefully it will enable a new age of choice in goods, at the moment its expensive to set up production lines for mass production , once industrial 3d printing gets a good foothold you can vary product design and run smaller numbers easier.
Another interesting thing is the abilities of $20,000 robots, things have come on heaps to a point where theres talk about replacing burger flipping spotty youths with them.
Its certainly going to be a crazy next 10-20 years.
Its an interesting proposition, but as others have said I think fully autonomous taxis (because that is what they are) are a long way off. Public trust in the technology would have to be 100% before it could be rolled out. Airliners can be almost fully automatic from take off to landing but how many people would get on a totally unmanned airliner even though autopilot technology and flight control systems are well established?
Cheap power? I think somebody has been dreaming because as long as they are privately owned companies that exist to make profit they will always charge as much as they can get away with, no matter what the source of the power is.
Cheap power? I think somebody has been dreaming because as long as they are privately owned companies that exist to make profit they will always charge as much as they can get away with, no matter what the source of the power is.
Terminator X said:
How will the world cope with millions of un-dead people saved by autonomous cars + their offspring of course? We're doomed!
TX.
By removing the head or destroying the brain TX.
When was this article written?
Also
The "sharing economy" is of big interest, people will still own cars but will share them, people own houses but will share them (AirBnB, easycar, etc)
We as a company are moving offer cover in these sectors, RISK will always exist so insurance will always be needed for the losses.
It comes down to how well an insurance company can adapt.
Also
Article said:
Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
I work in insurance, the risk from autonomous cars etc is already being discussed with alternative plans being implanted.The "sharing economy" is of big interest, people will still own cars but will share them, people own houses but will share them (AirBnB, easycar, etc)
We as a company are moving offer cover in these sectors, RISK will always exist so insurance will always be needed for the losses.
It comes down to how well an insurance company can adapt.
Adrian Flux insurance seem to of adapted already to autonomous driving - http://www.gizmag.com/adrian-flux-driverless-car-i...
and at the same website - http://www.gizmag.com/ehang-184-taxi-drone-testing...
So autonomous flying drones are the future....maybe ?
and at the same website - http://www.gizmag.com/ehang-184-taxi-drone-testing...
So autonomous flying drones are the future....maybe ?
I like reading predictions like this. I believe the basis of the predictions to be sound, just that the timeframe is more often than not a little optimistic. I certainly see stuff like this happening, just not all within the next 20 years.
And as for 80% of all automotive manufacturers going bankrupt, I find that one hard to believe. I work for a major manufacturer and believe me when I say we are not walking into this blind. Why do you think so many mainstream manufacturers are trialling their own, independent autonomous vehicle programs? The whole industry is gearing up for the switchover (which won't be binary as some people seem to think).
And as for 80% of all automotive manufacturers going bankrupt, I find that one hard to believe. I work for a major manufacturer and believe me when I say we are not walking into this blind. Why do you think so many mainstream manufacturers are trialling their own, independent autonomous vehicle programs? The whole industry is gearing up for the switchover (which won't be binary as some people seem to think).
PanzerCommander said:
"how many people would get on a totally unmanned airliner even though autopilot technology and flight control systems are well established?"
You forget what people put themselves through flying Ryanair just to save a fiver per head. If you offer someone 10 quid off to fly an autonomous aircraft I think they'll bite your hand off. (I don't doubt Ryanair will be the first - O'Leary tried to petition a single pilot in the cockpit)...mondeoman said:
"Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025."
Sorry, this aint gonna happen any time soon.
Funnily enough that was the part I filleted out to quote. It's a red herring to state that more (of a nascent technology) is installed in a given year than a mature technology. We already have more than 70% of the traditional generation plant we'll need for the next decade. If that represents the quality of the forecast then like most forecasts, it's wrong. I worked with a PhD holding self-proclaimed futurologist/economist in the 1970s. He committed suicide because the world had not evolved as he had so confidently predicted.Sorry, this aint gonna happen any time soon.
While most of those are disruptive applications of technology, they are not necessarily killer apps themselves.
Consider how IBM was displaced by Microsoft with the rise of the Microprocessors, which were simple much cheaper than Minis and Mainframes. Or the iTune replaced displaced the Walkman. Or how Google displaced Microsoft with the rise of the internet. Or DVDs the videotape.
They all made the old way obsolete, and replaced it with something that is both cheaper and better long term prospects.
In the case of Uber and airbnb, they have not replaced taxis and hotel rooms they have instead supplemented/grown the market. Online services with low barriers to entry for them, also have low barriers for competitors. Consider how many versions of YourFaceSpace have there been and still emerging.
Consider how IBM was displaced by Microsoft with the rise of the Microprocessors, which were simple much cheaper than Minis and Mainframes. Or the iTune replaced displaced the Walkman. Or how Google displaced Microsoft with the rise of the internet. Or DVDs the videotape.
They all made the old way obsolete, and replaced it with something that is both cheaper and better long term prospects.
In the case of Uber and airbnb, they have not replaced taxis and hotel rooms they have instead supplemented/grown the market. Online services with low barriers to entry for them, also have low barriers for competitors. Consider how many versions of YourFaceSpace have there been and still emerging.
Edited by 4x4Tyke on Wednesday 15th June 17:52
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