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Guam

22,050 posts

154 months

[news] 
Tuesday 7th August 2012 quote quote all
dickymint said:
Guam - you may find this Paper interesting...........

http://www.maths.bris.ac.uk/~MAZJCR/intractable1.p...

As linked via Bishop Hill.......

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2012/8/1/climate-h...

PS. The math is too heavy for me wink
Cant get to it all links are down frown

From comments coming from those who have seen it and digested it he seems to be making many of the points we have raised on here over the years <dangerous assumption though as I havent got to it yet>, Will check Briggs for a working link and his take on the paper. smile

Thanks for the heads up smile

dickymint

12,134 posts

144 months

[news] 
Tuesday 7th August 2012 quote quote all
Links still work for me. Top one is a PDF. No worries sure you'll get there. Think you will enjoy. thumbup

Guam

22,050 posts

154 months

[news] 
Tuesday 7th August 2012 quote quote all
dickymint said:
Links still work for me. Top one is a PDF. No worries sure you'll get there. Think you will enjoy. thumbup
Got it smile
Damn where is Ludo when you need him smile

I was hooked on this paper early on when I read this:

"I take it for granted that a Bayesian solution is preferred, because the dom-
inant source of uncertainty in complex systems is epistemic, not aleatory.
But I do not for one moment believe that a Bayesian solution can capture
all of my uncertainty, and am concerned that even to attempt such a thing
gives a false impression (Goldstein, 2011; Spiegelhalter and Riesch, 2011). I
do, however, believe that a Bayesian approach will do better at representing
epistemic uncertainty than the rather simpler and tractable non-Bayesian ap-
proaches that have been adopted"


The attentive regulars on here will recall My "Casino stats" argument with him when I made a very similar point <More simply> smile
If I could search worth a damn on here I would dig out the Bayesian reference I made then smile

Not finished reading through the paper yet, however it appears to confirm what many of been saying for some time on the statistical problems, inherent in the whole modelling excercise in a dynamic environment.
Thanks for this, its already giving me several chuckles and I am nowhere near done yet.
I reckon TB will enjopy this as well smile

Nice to see "Calibration" raising its head as well smile


Guam

22,050 posts

154 months

[news] 
Tuesday 7th August 2012 quote quote all
Oh My The "Random walk" makes a comeback and he illustrates the limitation of Monte Carlo simulations <Casino Stats as TB and I put it>.

If this gets much better I may print it off and frame it smile

And still only halfway through smile

dickymint

12,134 posts

144 months

[news] 
Tuesday 7th August 2012 quote quote all
^^^ Like I said I can't grasp the math but get the jist of it. The comments on Bishops are well worth a read as well - some very clever people on there.
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Guam

22,050 posts

154 months

[news] 
Tuesday 7th August 2012 quote quote all
dickymint said:
^^^ Like I said I can't grasp the math but get the jist of it. The comments on Bishops are well worth a read as well - some very clever people on there.
Yeah I read those while trying to get the paper smile

Nice to see chaos theory getting kicked around a lot on there smile

Shame these guys werent on here 2-3 years ago when us "Pistoncranks" were making the very same points smile

I love his subtle handling, drawing the reader inexorably to the comclusion that the Models <and specifically the Hockey Stick> are basically Junk, without coming right out and stating it openly smile
Deftly done that man smile

Apache

38,913 posts

170 months

[news] 
Thursday 9th August 2012 quote quote all
World On Alert For Massive Solar Storm. Experts say the sun is reaching a peak in its 10-year activity cycle, putting the Earth at greater risk from solar storms.

http://news.sky.com/story/969059/world-on-alert-fo...

I thought we'd been having an extended period of inactivity?

loafer123

3,293 posts

101 months

[news] 
Thursday 9th August 2012 quote quote all
I think we are near the peak of a cycle which is much lower than expected.

Cold winters here we come...

IainT

9,219 posts

124 months

[news] 
Monday 13th August 2012 quote quote all
Carrying on from a question I asked TB in the politics thread...

I can understand why the concept of CO2 driving temp change is, scientifically put, balls - it's based on GIGO models, poor data and political agendas.

We often slate the models for being too narrow and not considering various cycles within and without the planet.

Conversely, with the excellent post on WUWT discussing solar forcing and revised modelling projections for the coming cool spell: why is is acceptable to view that in isolation for accurate modelling of the planet? I assume it is seen as such a strong driver that other forcings are too short-term or of too small a magnitude?

pacman1

7,258 posts

79 months

[news] 
Monday 13th August 2012 quote quote all
Having just visited the BBC site to see the latest Rover image from Mars, I noticed a link entitled Climate may boost frog disease

Ooh I thought, I'll bet myself a pint that'll be a piece of guff penned by one R Black..

I won, I'm drinking it now.

Apache

38,913 posts

170 months

[news] 
Monday 13th August 2012 quote quote all
pacman1 said:
Having just visited the BBC site to see the latest Rover image from Mars, I noticed a link entitled Climate may boost frog disease

Ooh I thought, I'll bet myself a pint that'll be a piece of guff penned by one R Black..

I won, I'm drinking it now.
He must be verging on insanity by now, these articles are pure comedy and I'm surprised even the BBC can't see they are being made to look foolish by this poor deluded fool......perhaps they do because they don't allow comments anymore

Guam

22,050 posts

154 months

[news] 
Tuesday 14th August 2012 quote quote all
The old Tmax Tmin argument comes up again on Spencers site

Fun with Numbers smile

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/08/fun-with-summe...

This is just one of perhaps hundreds of statistical issues, with the whole process, several of which have been discussed on here at lengthsmile

General Bilko

266 posts

72 months

[news] 
Tuesday 14th August 2012 quote quote all
IainT said:
I can understand why the concept of CO2 driving temp change is, scientifically put, balls - it's based on GIGO models, poor data and political agendas.
This is the part that I'm trying to get my head around and as I understand it's not about models or data but about fundamental science. I've read Jo Nova's 4 key issues booklet and the key part of the whole argument for me is - adding more CO2 to the atmosphere doesn't make much, if any difference to temperature.

There is a significant warming effect at very low concentrations of CO2 but increasing the ppm doesn't have a linear effect, it's logarithmic. Not only that but we're pretty far up the curve in terms of the relative impact.

What I don't understand is why this issue doesn't get more attention? There seems to be a lot of discussion on statistics, measurements and data interpretation which seems a bit 'whatever' given the science.

Or am I missing something???

TheHeretic

73,668 posts

141 months

[news] 
Tuesday 14th August 2012 quote quote all
Is that the Beer's law thingy bob?

Apache

38,913 posts

170 months

[news] 
Tuesday 14th August 2012 quote quote all
yes

that'll be the chap

TheHeretic

73,668 posts

141 months

[news] 
Tuesday 14th August 2012 quote quote all
Apache said:
yes

that'll be the chap
Woohoo! I remembered something from class!

IainT

9,219 posts

124 months

[news] 
Wednesday 15th August 2012 quote quote all
TheHeretic said:
Is that the Beer's law thingy bob?
Mmmm, beer.

Plus the models codify a strong set of positive feedbacks from CO2 (primarily water vapour) but the evidence suggests a negative feedback. This is well documented on Jo Nova's site, Watts and some good YouTube presentations by Monckton.

rasto

1,472 posts

123 months

[news] 
Sunday 26th August 2012 quote quote all
Someone is going off message on the BBC news website !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-1933...

My first thoughts on reading this were that the team producing these results were likely to loose their funding, my wife then suggested that they might actually get more money and be asked to 'check' their conclusions wink

Globs

13,131 posts

117 months

[news] 
Sunday 26th August 2012 quote quote all
rasto said:
Someone is going off message on the BBC news website !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-1933...

My first thoughts on reading this were that the team producing these results were likely to loose their funding, my wife then suggested that they might actually get more money and be asked to 'check' their conclusions wink
BBCarticle said:
While oxygen is released into the atmosphere as a waste product of this process, the absorbed carbon primarily remains locked in the plant until it dies.
That means wood must be carbon free, amazing!
And people claim there is grade inflation at GCSE - Pah!

rasto

1,472 posts

123 months

[news] 
Sunday 26th August 2012 quote quote all
I wonder if this new information will be used to update the 'oh so accurate' models ?
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