When is Bottas going to show up?

[bobbo89]

tommunster10 said:

Yep lets wait till Q3.
I'll sticki it on stone:

Merc 1-2 in race
Williams 3rd and a 5th for Stroll.....(that could really bite me in the backside and haunt me...lol)

On previous form the Merc 1-2 is the obvious assumption to make and much as I'd like to see that result from Williams I don't hold your optimism!

My prediction is for a split front row with a Merc and a Red Bull, the same in the second row and a mess of Williams, Ferrari and McLaren making up the 3rd, 4th and 5th.

That said, even Melbourne can be unrepresentative of the seasons outcome, remember Hass last year?

[hora]

Stroll walked away with his title. Any other reasons why?

[bunglesprout]

Bottas needs to be a bit canny this year. He's got a one year contract, presumably because Vettel is out of contract this year so Mercedes may try and snaffle him up. That isn't a given however, and he may stay put, or end up at McLaren in place of Alonso if the team shows big improvement. Alonso will retire, and I certainly cannot see him as a Mercedes driver if James Allison does go there. Hamilton is out of contract at the end of 2018 and will likely either move teams or retire. So if Bottas walks the fine line between being quick enough to show he's capable of fighting for WDC, but not upsetting the apple cart too much, he could be in line for a longer term contract at Merc if they fail to get Vettel, or put himself in line for a McLaren or Ferrari seat if Merc sign Vettel.

[tuffer]

bunglesprout said:

Bottas needs to be a bit canny this year. He's got a one year contract, presumably because Vettel is out of contract this year so Mercedes may try and snaffle him up. That isn't a given however, and he may stay put, or end up at McLaren in place of Alonso if the team shows big improvement. Alonso will retire, and I certainly cannot see him as a Mercedes driver if James Allison does go there. Hamilton is out of contract at the end of 2018 and will likely either move teams or retire. So if Bottas walks the fine line between being quick enough to show he's capable of fighting for WDC, but not upsetting the apple cart too much, he could be in line for a longer term contract at Merc if they fail to get Vettel, or put himself in line for a McLaren or Ferrari seat if Merc sign Vettel.

I don't think Hamilton will retire, I believe he wants to set some records. He will be eyeing up the best possible seat and aiming for 2 or 3 more WDC's.

[Westblue]

Can Valtteri become the next champion? Is this his best chance for the title?

He was fast, calm and consistent at Williams and he is also a Finn so is highly unlikely to be intimidated by his new seat, Toto, Hamilton or anything.

I for one have high hopes for Valtteri.

Any thoughts?

[Pebbles167]

Westblue said:

Can Valtteri become the next champion? Is this his best chance for the title?

He was fast, calm and consistent at Williams and he is also a Finn so is highly unlikely to be intimidated by his new seat, Toto, Hamilton or anything.

I for one have high hopes for Valtteri.

Any thoughts?

General consensus I think, is that he probably has the ability, but will play a safe number 2 to Lewis.

Would love to be proven wrong and have him battling though.

[PhillipM]

I think if anything Williams will drop back, these regulations give more inherent drag anyway so their usual low drag philosophy elsewhere will give even less benefit than it was. Plus, Botta's didn't hang around...if there was a shot at the williams being up at the sharp end he might have stayed instead of leaving nothing but a pair of flaming shoe-prints.

[deadslow]

Pebbles167 said:

Westblue said:

Can Valtteri become the next champion? Is this his best chance for the title?

He was fast, calm and consistent at Williams and he is also a Finn so is highly unlikely to be intimidated by his new seat, Toto, Hamilton or anything.

I for one have high hopes for Valtteri.

Any thoughts?

General consensus I think, is that he probably has the ability, but will play a safe number 2 to Lewis.

Would love to be proven wrong and have him battling though.

would be cracking to see the newer guys battling it out Bottas/Danny Ric or Bottas/Max

[thegreenhell]

Pebbles167 said:

General consensus I think, is that he probably has the ability, but will play a safe number 2 to Lewis.

Would love to be proven wrong and have him battling though.

I don't think he can afford to play it too safe. He obviously doesn't need to get crashy, but he needs to be seen to be pushing Hamilton if he isn't going to be dropped in 12 months when Vettel and Alonso become available. He may be forgiven for needing one or two races at the start of the season to settle into the team, but then he needs to start performing regularly before the mid-season game of musical chairs for 2018 begins.

[C Lee Farquar]

Pebbles167 said:

General consensus I think, is that he probably has the ability, but will play a safe number 2 to Lewis.

Would love to be proven wrong and have him battling though.

Obviously neither of us know yet but I think that it is inconceivable he'll settle for being a safe number 2. He got to F1 entirely on merit, I don't think that commitment could turn to submission so early in his career.

[HustleRussell]

Broadly speaking people are underestimating Bottas. I think part of his problem is that people think Massa is useless. Massa was always blisteringly quick on a qualifying lap and has existed in the shade of the greatest drivers of modern times. I think people increasingly underestimate him.

[hora]

thegreenhell said:

I don't think he can afford to play it too safe. He obviously doesn't need to get crashy, but he needs to be seen to be pushing Hamilton if he isn't going to be dropped in 12 months when Vettel and Alonso become available. He may be forgiven for needing one or two races at the start of the season to settle into the team, but then he needs to start performing regularly before the mid-season game of musical chairs for 2018 begins.

Let's face it. Was Bottas their first, second or third driver choice?

They mucked about abit and made the 'we are making a brave chouce' comment. All of which is disengenious to Bottas.

[HustleRussell]

hora said:

Let's face it. Was Bottas their first, second or third driver choice?

I bet it was never that black & white. Mercedes would've fully explored all of the possible options and decided which struck the best compromise considering all of the many factors at play.

[Rich_W]

HustleRussell said:

I bet it was never that black & white.

Are you suggesting this was Mercedes ideal drive line up based on race?

I jest.

[KevinCamaroSS]

I think they should have gone with Werhlein, by the end of 2017 he will have matured nicely into the role of F1 driver. I read Benson's analysis and comparison of Bottas and Massa with their team-mates to get a common base. His analysis indicates Bottas is around 0.1 to 0.2 seconds a lap slower than Rosberg. I think Werhlein will be at Merc in 2018.

[Vaud]

KevinCamaroSS said:

I think they should have gone with Werhlein, by the end of 2017 he will have matured nicely into the role of F1 driver. I read Benson's analysis and comparison of Bottas and Massa with their team-mates to get a common base. His analysis indicates Bottas is around 0.1 to 0.2 seconds a lap slower than Rosberg. I think Werhlein will be at Merc in 2018.

Bensons analysis. There is your first problem.

It was a tough call for them, I think they went conservative rather than aggressive, but when you have Lewis as number 1 driver, that's not a bad approach.

Plus plenty more driver options open up for 2018+.