The Official 2016 Russian Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

[glazbagun]

That's one bad overtake or something like his last infringement, fairly easy to do I'd have thought. Probably why you're allowed three strikes before a penalty.

[Derek Smith]

JNW1 said:

He's certainly not had the rub of the green so far this season but he's still been scoring decent points even when things haven't been going in his favour (2nd on Sunday was hardly a disaster!). At some point during the course of the season things will change - and it will be Rosberg who hits a period of bad luck - and the question will be whether those bits of misfortune result in non-finishes or very low points finishes as opposed to being on the podium? Lewis is doing a nice of job of pushing pressure Nico's way at the moment by making out he (Lewis) has got a mountain to climb and that Nico can only throw it away; however, we all know there's a long way to go and with 25 points for a win Rosberg's lead is very catchable by the end of the season (as Hamilton knows only too well!).

But there is no guarantee that NR will have a period of bad luck or that LH won't have more.

In effect we are at the start of a new season with LH having a 47 point penalty.

The difference between to two drivers is very small. 47 points is a massive gap.

[patmahe]

Rosberg could be punted off at the start of two races which Hamilton could go on to win, then all of a sudden its pretty much all square. It can change as quickly as that, people are getting far to excited, its still early days in a very long championship. Yes Lewis hasn't had the best start to the year but its hardly game over.

[Vaud]

47 points with 4 races to go would be a big gap, but with the length of the season, only 4 races down isn't a lot.

Given Merc and Ferrari seem to be having more reliability glitches (and then getting caught up in incidents) it's a long, long way to go.

[hairyben]

Vaud said:

47 points with 4 races to go would be a big gap, but with the length of the season, only 4 races down isn't a lot.

Given Merc and Ferrari seem to be having more reliability glitches (and then getting caught up in incidents) it's a long, long way to go.

It's a snapshot of less than 20% of the season in isolation; it's a smaller number than the number of points by which hamilton has twice beaten rosberg over the last two seasons

That said he really does need to turn it around or he's going to start questioning himself.

[gibbon]

Derek Smith said:

But there is no guarantee that NR will have a period of bad luck or that LH won't have more.

In effect we are at the start of a new season with LH having a 47 point penalty.

The difference between to two drivers is very small. 47 points is a massive gap.

Agreed, but i would add that Lewis is also more vulnerable in terms of a future mistake leading to a penalty and penalties for drivetrain changes.

[revrange]

yeah will need a NR DNF to spice this season up.

LH needs a clean weekend, and to beat NR, he may well have done that this weekend until the car let him down.

I would imagine there are some busy dyno's in Northamptonshire today...

[Daston]

The issue I see is that every time Hamilton's engine lets go it gives the team data in order to improve the reliability of both of the teams engines so Rosberg gains twice.

[Vaud]

Daston said:

The issue I see is that every time Hamilton's engine lets go it gives the team data in order to improve the reliability of both of the teams engines so Rosberg gains twice.

No issue, any issues Nico has are shared with Hamilton to avoid any issues he might have had...

[JNW1]

Derek Smith said:

JNW1 said:

He's certainly not had the rub of the green so far this season but he's still been scoring decent points even when things haven't been going in his favour (2nd on Sunday was hardly a disaster!). At some point during the course of the season things will change - and it will be Rosberg who hits a period of bad luck - and the question will be whether those bits of misfortune result in non-finishes or very low points finishes as opposed to being on the podium? Lewis is doing a nice of job of pushing pressure Nico's way at the moment by making out he (Lewis) has got a mountain to climb and that Nico can only throw it away; however, we all know there's a long way to go and with 25 points for a win Rosberg's lead is very catchable by the end of the season (as Hamilton knows only too well!).

But there is no guarantee that NR will have a period of bad luck or that LH won't have more.

In effect we are at the start of a new season with LH having a 47 point penalty.

The difference between to two drivers is very small. 47 points is a massive gap.

There are still seventeen races left which until not so long ago was more than an entire F1 season! 47 points could in theory be turned around in only two races and, while I accept thats unlikely, one DNF for Rosberg combined with five wins for Hamilton would put Lewis in front. It's very unusual for a driver to go an entire season without problems of some sort so sure as eggs are eggs Nico will experience a blip somewhere along the line. Therefore, all is far from lost for Hamilton and I don't think 47 points is a massive gap with so many races left - with a reliable car and his head together he's faster than Rosberg and hence I think he's more than capable of clawing-back the current deficit.

[swisstoni]

Reminds me of when Greg Norman started a last round of the Masters with a surely unassailable 6 shot lead ...

[JNW1]

swisstoni said:

Reminds me of when Greg Norman started a last round of the Masters with a surely unassailable 6 shot lead ...

Except the current F1 season is a long way from being at the equivalent of the start of the final round in a major golf tournament; if there were only 6 or 7 races left perhaps but there are still 17 to go!!

[swisstoni]

I think we are in agreement. Rosberg looks miles ahead but there are just so many things that can put a spanner in the works. Just like you can lose a ton of shots in golf pretty sharpish.

Note to self: give the metaphors a rest.

[f1_dragon]

Not wishing to be pedantic but I've seen 47 points being cited as the gap a number of times above. I thought it was 43; just want to make sure I haven't missed anything?

[JNW1]

swisstoni said:

I think we are in agreement. Rosberg looks miles ahead but there are just so many things that can put a spanner in the works.

Yes, we are in agreement! Casting my mind back to 2006 I seem to remember that Fernando Alonso was way ahead of Michael Schumacher at the mid-point of the season (think the lead was more than 30 points with less than 10 races left and at the time a win was only worth 10 points not 25). However, Alonso's lead had gone before the end of the season and had it not been for an engine failure at the penultimate race Schumacher would have probably won the title. In that context, to be the equivalent of less than two race wins ahead with 17 races to go isn't that much of an advantage and Hamilton is a long way from having an impossible mountain to climb!

[VolvoT5]

JNW1 said:

Yes, we are in agreement! Casting my mind back to 2006 I seem to remember that Fernando Alonso was way ahead of Michael Schumacher at the mid-point of the season (think the lead was more than 30 points with less than 10 races left and at the time a win was only worth 10 points not 25). However, Alonso's lead had gone before the end of the season and had it not been for an engine failure at the penultimate race Schumacher would have probably won the title. In that context, to be the equivalent of less than two race wins ahead with 17 races to go isn't that much of an advantage and Hamilton is a long way from having an impossible mountain to climb!

I agree. I think the Hamilton fans are getting a bit hysterical really. Was it 2014 that Rosberg had a few issues starting around Singapore time and the whole championship momentum just rolled away from him? Things can turn so quickly.

The lead is tiny relative to the points available. There is a 43 point gap, 17 races to go and a 7 point difference between 1st and 2nd place. So if my calculations are right if every race is a Merc 1-2 finish Hamilton would have to beat Rosberg 12-5. Also you would have to say that based on past history if both cars finish every race then Lewis is more likely to win a couple of races where Nico doesn't manage 2nd but perhaps gets pipped by one or both of the Ferraris. The win is still far from impossible.

Plus it would be pretty lucky for Nico if he didn't experience at least 1 more car issue than Hamilton from this point onwards......

All this talk on social media of "just give Nico the trophy" is ridiculous.

[LivingTheDream]

f1_dragon said:

Not wishing to be pedantic but I've seen 47 points being cited as the gap a number of times above. I thought it was 43; just want to make sure I haven't missed anything?

You are correct

[deadslow]

VolvoT5 said:

All this talk on social media of "just give Nico the trophy" is ridiculous.

I actually wish they would 'just give Nico the trophy' just to pee off these morons.

[JNW1]

LivingTheDream said:

f1_dragon said:

Not wishing to be pedantic but I've seen 47 points being cited as the gap a number of times above. I thought it was 43; just want to make sure I haven't missed anything?

You are correct

Apologies, picked-up the 47 from a previous post and assumed it was correct without checking - schoolboy error! However, in that case the gap is less massive than was seeing suggested and should therefore be a bit easier to close!

[VolvoT5]

deadslow said:

I actually wish they would 'just give Nico the trophy' just to pee off these morons.

Well so do I....... but it will be so much more satisfying if Nico manages to beat Lewis in a relatively straight fight from now on. I believe he can do it, he is a very fast driver and seems to have a bit more of an edge to him this year.

I think it is fair to say Nico is not far off some of the other 1 time winners like Hill, Villeneuve, Button, etc. In my view he is deserving of a WDC should he win it this year... even if he has a bit of luck on his side.