Jensons future

[Esseesse]

Mini1275 said:

Soul Reaver said:

I hope Jenson moves to another team. I'm sick to death of seeing him my favorite driver by far year after year in that st fking car and with that tt Ron D at the helm. It is a st team and has been for years.

Sorry, could you just clarify...are you a fan of McLaren or not ?

I often see Ron receiving a lot of hate. Why is that? Always thought he came across ok...?

[cgt2]

Esseesse said:

I often see Ron receiving a lot of hate. Why is that?

From people that haven't met him and believe what they read on the internet. He is a self made guy who rose from very humble beginnings to build a powerhouse of British Motorsport achievement, still the most successful British F1 team ever.

I've met him twice and two close friends have worked for McLaren over 20 years combined. He's a tough guy and very determined but very fair to those who work for him. If he didn't look after people they would not stay there a long time.

Ron's focus is exactly what McLaren need to get back to the top.

[Crafty_]

Dr Z said:

Sorry, can't agree. He may be more mature, but equally I can say Hamilton's speed over one lap has also remained consistently solid as you judged JB's performances since then. There is no way to prove that Hamilton has become faster compared to his younger self, either over a lap or even race pace. However, what I can say confidently is that if you were to rewind the clock back to 2013 and put Hamilton and Button in the Merc then till now, Hamilton would have at least one less WDC to his name.

Button may not be as fast as Hamilton over a lap, but he's a brilliant racer who maximises the car's potential over a season purely by being consistent, less error prone and fast in the race. I can back this up with stats. You don't need to be as fast as Hamilton to win in the Merc, where your one lap pace doesn't count for much.

I don't agree, sure Hamilton has made mistakes over the last three years, but as we see with Rosberg consistency alone won't win you WDCs.

When Lewis and Button were team mates Hamilton had the worst years of his career, both professionally and personally, that's a long way behind him since he joined Mercedes. Even then, Lewis beat him in 2010, lost in 2011 and in 2012 beat him by two points, despite having 5 retirements vs Button's 2. The point is its hardly conclusive that Button outpaced/outraced Hamilton during this period.

Button is a good driver, you don't have a 16 year career in F1 by being ok but he's a way off being capable of beating Hamilton over the last three years. I think he would have put up a better fight than Rosberg - certainly 2015 would have been closer and Button wouldn't have squandered a 40 odd point lead this year but I don't think the result would have been any different.

Interestingly his stats are comparative to both Coulthard and Webber, I would say that all three have, at times had the best car and have also had definite mid field cars. All three have a strong showing but none have been the strongest drivers of their respective eras.

If anything Button is slightly behind the other two, but to be fair he's probably had a leading car for less of his career than the others, particularly Webber who enjoyed the RBR for a few years.

	Button	Coulthard	Webber
Starts	299	247	217
Wins	15	13	9
Podiums	50	62	42
Poles	8	12	13
Fastest Laps	8	18	19

[Trabi601]

I'd say Button had a real top-notch title winning car for half a season at Brawn.

The McLaren in his first 3 seasons was competitive under a very narrow range of conditions with both Button and Hamilton grabbing the odd win, but never really sustaining any kind of title challenge.

Outside of this, he's been mostly lumbered with 2nd or 3rd tier cars - which is a real shame, as he deserves more than a single title to his name.

[LaurasOtherHalf]

Trabi601 said:

he deserves more than a single title to his name.

No chance, I like JB as much as most and I think he's a great driver but he's not a multiple WDC.

[DKL]

If he'd been in a Mercedes in the last 4 years he'd probably have had another WDC by now but that could be said for one or two others as well.
He took his chance well when it arrived but just hasn't been in quite the right place at the right time since.
If Rosberg doesn't win this year (or next I suppose) he will be one of the few drivers who can genuinely say he missed his opportunity with few other outside influences. He just has to beat his team mate.

[paulguitar]

The statistic that Button outpointed Hamilton is actually very misleading as it is heavily weighted by reliability issues, plus of course Hamilton would have more points had he not have been punted out of the lead in his last McLaren race.

I think Jenson is a terrific driver, and very occasionally, when everything was perfect, he outperformed Hamilton. Those instances were few and far between, however, and often Hamilton was on a different planet. I think I am correct in saying when both were McLarens he actually lapped Button at one GP?

Also, the points are added up at the end of each year, not accrued over 3 years, So the actual score is Hamilton 2, Button 1.

[Vocal Minority]

I have to say - I think 'on a different planet' is a pretty unfair assessment. Button went through a slump in 2012, not dissimilar to the one Hamilton went through in 2011 with his fad for driving into Massa. That's when the biggest disparity took place.

That said, in a straight race between the two in equal kit I suppose I would expect Button to maybe win 3/10 between the two of them.

[The Surveyor]

Vocal Minority said:

I have to say - I think 'on a different planet' is a pretty unfair assessment. Button went through a slump in 2012, not dissimilar to the one Hamilton went through in 2011 with his fad for driving into Massa. That's when the biggest disparity took place.

That said, in a straight race between the two in equal kit I suppose I would expect Button to maybe win 3/10 between the two of them.

Agree, and just the point I was making earlier.

For me, JB has the potential to switch to sports car racing and become a multiply Le Mans winner, to become a proper legend like Tom Kristensen / Derek Bell. He has the raw speed but more importantly the mechanical sympathy to push cars without braking them, the perfect mix for endurance racing. I'd hate to see him move from McLaren and end up fighting at the back of an F1 grid in a 3rd rate car, he should follow Webber or better still lead a McLaren GT Pro Team back to Le Mans.

[Likes Fast Cars]

rubystone said:

It isn't far from Grove to Brooklands after all and there are over 130 brands represented on that particular industrial estate.

As long as he's not being driven in a Willy F1 car which could breakdown along the way ....

[suffolk009]

The Surveyor said:

Agree, and just the point I was making earlier.

For me, JB has the potential to switch to sports car racing and become a multiply Le Mans winner, to become a proper legend like Tom Kristensen / Derek Bell. He has the raw speed but more importantly the mechanical sympathy to push cars without braking them, the perfect mix for endurance racing. I'd hate to see him move from McLaren and end up fighting at the back of an F1 grid in a 3rd rate car, he should follow Webber or better still lead a McLaren GT Pro Team back to Le Mans.

A McLaren LMP1 works team would be my personal wet dream. Don't care who's pedalling.

[paulguitar]

Fair enough, ‘different planet’ was a poor choice or words.


JB was indeed super impressive on occasion, I do remember when he beat LH fair and square in one race early in their time together at McLaren and Lewis looked genuinely shell-shocked and baffled, I don’t think he could quite believe it had happened.

I suppose though I sometimes get fed up with people using the 3 year points statistic, as it is so misleading. Lewis was more often the leading McLaren driver while they were team mates, and sometimes by a large margin.


I agree also that Button would likely make a superb WEC driver, he makes very few mistakes and is consistently quick.


I consider him a class act, both in and out of the car.

[AndrewEH1]

suffolk009 said:

A McLaren LMP1 works team would be my personal wet dream. Don't care who's pedalling.

They must be thinking about this now Ford are back on with the GT.

[Smollet]

AndrewEH1 said:

suffolk009 said:

A McLaren LMP1 works team would be my personal wet dream. Don't care who's pedalling.

They must be thinking about this now Ford are back on with the GT.

However they're not fighting for the overall lead and I doubt Jenson would be overawed competing for one of the lesser titles. I just hope he doesn't go to Indycar as it's a shadow of their former selves these days. They were brutes when Mansell competed

[Dr Z]

Crafty_ said:

Dr Z said:

Button may not be as fast as Hamilton over a lap, but he's a brilliant racer who maximises the car's potential over a season purely by being consistent, less error prone and fast in the race. I can back this up with stats. You don't need to be as fast as Hamilton to win in the Merc, where your one lap pace doesn't count for much.

I don't agree, sure Hamilton has made mistakes over the last three years, but as we see with Rosberg consistency alone won't win you WDCs.

When Lewis and Button were team mates Hamilton had the worst years of his career, both professionally and personally, that's a long way behind him since he joined Mercedes. Even then, Lewis beat him in 2010, lost in 2011 and in 2012 beat him by two points, despite having 5 retirements vs Button's 2. The point is its hardly conclusive that Button outpaced/outraced Hamilton during this period.

Button is a good driver, you don't have a 16 year career in F1 by being ok but he's a way off being capable of beating Hamilton over the last three years. I think he would have put up a better fight than Rosberg - certainly 2015 would have been closer and Button wouldn't have squandered a 40 odd point lead this year but I don't think the result would have been any different.

Interestingly his stats are comparative to both Coulthard and Webber, I would say that all three have, at times had the best car and have also had definite mid field cars. All three have a strong showing but none have been the strongest drivers of their respective eras.

If anything Button is slightly behind the other two, but to be fair he's probably had a leading car for less of his career than the others, particularly Webber who enjoyed the RBR for a few years.

	Button	Coulthard	Webber
Starts	299	247	217
Wins	15	13	9
Podiums	50	62	42
Poles	8	12	13
Fastest Laps	8	18	19

I don’t believe it’s right to exclude 2011/2012 because Hamilton was not ‘on it’ or the team was not on it, if you then don’t afford Button the same luxury of excuses as in, going into a new team in 2010 or that the team was not on it in 2012. Why is it then that we are prepared to give the trophy to Hamilton in 2010 but make excuses for 2011 and 2012?

I recall everyone expected Button to be dominated by Hamilton in 2010, as JB was going to “Lewis’ team”. I also recall that Button immediately got the team’s respect by being the first to win races for the team in 2010 and as quick as Hamilton in the races, even if his one lap pace wasn’t as good which tended to underestimate his race performances.

Whilst it is correct to say that over the course of 3 years, Button accumulated more points than Hamilton, it doesn’t give us the full picture--even though that stat is very favourable, speaking as a Button fan. I think if you look at the individual season’s stats you get a far more nuanced view of Jenson’s performances relative to his team mate. As a bonus, you even get a better picture of Hamilton’s performance in 2011.

These are the average qualifying positions and race finishing positions for Button and his team mates from 2010-present, when both drivers finished:

Team mate	Year	Q (Team mate)	Q (Button)	R (Team mate)	R (Button)	Sample size
Hamilton	2010	5.21	7.29	3.86	4.43	14
Hamilton	2011	3	3.64	3.93	3.21	14
Hamilton	2012	2.92	7.54	5.31	8.77	13
Perez	2013	10.95	10.58	10.16	9.11	19
Magnussen	2014	8.12	8.41	9.35	6.94	17
Alonso	2015	16.22	15.33	12.56	12	9
Alonso	2016	12.33	12	11	9.67	6

The way I did this is not very fair to Button as Hamilton tended to suffer more self-induced DNFs over their time as teammates, but equally I wanted to see if the received narrative of ‘poor Hamilton suffering at the hands of woeful McLaren’ is true or not, so all DNFs are excluded. Instead of making some hand wavy statement about either Hamilton or Button overall, each season provides its own story.

In 2010, Hamilton tended to qualify a couple of positions ahead of Button (5.21 vs 7.29), but interestingly both drivers finish the races a lot closer together than their qualifying positions indicate (3.86 vs 4.43). Over that season, purely going from Hamilton’s qualifying positions, the MP4/25 is a 3rd best car over a lap but clearly a better race car, and Button is making twice as much a rate of progress in the race as did Hamilton from their respective grid positions. From this, I would conclude that Button is able to maximise the race performance of the car over that season, as much as Hamilton. Not bad for the first season with the team.

Surprisingly (or not), Button is a lot closer to Hamilton on one-lap pace in 2011, but Hamilton is marginally ahead still (3 vs 3.64). Button is ahead in the races though, at a similar margin to what Hamilton had over Button in 2010. From the improvement in one-lap pace between the Hamilton of 2010 and 2011, the car is clearly better than the MP4/25 and Hamilton is clearly extracting the best from it in 2011 in qualifying. This was the year in which Red Bull and Vettel were on a different level to everybody else, so seeing the qualifying positions of both McLaren drivers, it is not unreasonable to suggest that Hamilton’s head is in the right place to give the team a consistent 2nd row start which is the best McLaren could hope for, given Red Bull’s performance. But starting from such similar positions to his teammate, I can only conclude he is being out-raced by Button in 2011.

2012 is a funny year, and I saw a very interesting swing in performance from the 1st half to 2nd half for Button, possibly the result of a change in tyre construction mid season (this was part of a much larger analysis that I’m doing that includes all F1 seasons from 1955 and I hope to share the results in this forum at some point). But the above table is consistent with the general narrative: the car was the best McLaren had produced over four years in qualifying, but it all went badly wrong in the races.

We’re seeing a return of the large gap in qualifying between Button and Hamilton, and both drivers go backwards in the races. However, Hamilton is going backwards about twice as much as Button. It is a messy season to conclude anything as Hamilton had 5 DNFs to Button’s 2, and Button had a lot of good results when Hamilton DNF’d, but the above table doesn’t reflect that. McLaren as a team were also not up to scratch operationally and I’d have to say both drivers appear to have suffered from it. I’m inclined to call it a draw…given 2010 and 2011.

Jenson’s subsequent years in McLaren consolidate the impression you get from analysing 2010-2012.

2013: Perez’s first season with the team, slightly slower or on similar pace to Button in qualifying but gets out-raced.

2014: Magnussen’s rookie season, quicker than Button on one-lap pace but gets out-raced.

2015: Small sample size due to huge number of DNFs, but quicker on one-lap pace and finishes marginally higher than Alonso when both finish

2016: So far, marginally ahead of Alonso in qualifying and has managed to out-race him at a bigger margin than 2015.

Button is not the quickest out there on a single lap, but he’s as quick as anyone in the race, with great race craft and very good wet/changeable weather ability. There is no question in my mind that he’s got what it takes to win against Hamilton in the Mercedes of this hybrid era. When I say Button is consistent, I don’t mean consistent in bringing the car home (although that’s true of him too), or consistent as in consistently coming second to Hamilton (the cheek)...I mean consistently as quick as Hamilton in race pace to make it a proper fight and come out on top with equal probability. Looking at the career stats and comparing him to Coulthard or Webber does a great disservice to Button’s talents, IMO.

Here endeth the fanboy monologue.

Trabi601 said:

I'd say Button had a real top-notch title winning car for half a season at Brawn.

The McLaren in his first 3 seasons was competitive under a very narrow range of conditions with both Button and Hamilton grabbing the odd win, but never really sustaining any kind of title challenge.

Outside of this, he's been mostly lumbered with 2nd or 3rd tier cars - which is a real shame, as he deserves more than a single title to his name.

Never a truer assessment of a driver made, in this forum. Thank you.

Edited by Dr Z on Thursday 11th August 13:34

[The Surveyor]

Dr Z said:

Button is not the quickest out there on a single lap, but he’s as quick as anyone in the race, with great race craft and very good wet/changeable weather ability. There is no question in my mind that he’s got what it takes to win against Hamilton in the Mercedes of this hybrid era. When I say Button is consistent, I don’t mean consistent in bringing the car home (although that’s true of him too), or consistent as in consistently coming second to Hamilton (the cheek)...I mean consistently as quick as Hamilton in race pace to make it a proper fight and come out on top with equal probability. Looking at the career stats and comparing him to Coulthard or Webber does a great disservice to Button’s talents, IMO.

Here endeth the fanboy monologue.

Trabi601 said:

I'd say Button had a real top-notch title winning car for half a season at Brawn.

The McLaren in his first 3 seasons was competitive under a very narrow range of conditions with both Button and Hamilton grabbing the odd win, but never really sustaining any kind of title challenge.

Outside of this, he's been mostly lumbered with 2nd or 3rd tier cars - which is a real shame, as he deserves more than a single title to his name.

Never a truer assessment of a driver made, in this forum. Thank you.

Edited by Dr Z on Thursday 11th August 13:34

History of F1 is littered with 'should have' 'could have' stories which is why it's such a fascinating sport, and one that has much more depth than simple statistics (or even complex statistics!) can show. Being in the right team at the right time, working with that team in a positive and productive way rather than a divisive way, being lucky, making your own luck, are all elements that contribute to the raw statistics.

JB is a superb driver, a great racer, but to his credit I think he's been a little too 'nice' to make that final microscopic step up to F1 'greatness', not quite ruthless enough. Margins are tiny in F1, success in a season defining race can be measured in hundredths of a second in quali, inches in braking zones etc. He's less gung-ho and plays the percentage game better than others but whilst he may be as quick as others including LH or FA he seams more wired up to finish at all cost rather than win at all cost. More Prost than Senna if you like!

[Vocal Minority]

The Surveyor said:

He's less gung-ho and plays the percentage game better than others but whilst he may be as quick as others including LH or FA he seams more wired up to finish at all cost rather than win at all cost. More Prost than Senna if you like!

Senna

Starts - 161
Wins - 41
Win ration - 25.46%

Prost

Starts - 199
Wins - 51
Win ratio - 25.62%

So who was the better winner

(I know exactly what you mean and I agree entirely - just having fun)

On another note that is astonishingly close as a ratio - 0.16% ?!?!

[lbc]

The trouble for me with Button is that he does not have the X-Factor since he left Brawn.

I can't even listen to his voice in interviews anymore, as I know he just moans a lot.

He needs to spice up his life to make him appear more interesting as a person.

Jenson needs to replicate to some extent what Hamilton is doing outside of F1.

He was good on his last Top Gear appearance though, so I think that is where his future should be.

[Trabi601]

lbc said:

Jenson needs to replicate to some extent what Hamilton is doing outside of F1.

I think he's trying to appeal to a more mature and diverse audience than the teenage 'gangsta' wannabes.

If you think he's moaning, it's nothing compared with what we'd have heard from Lewis in that dog of a McLaren Honda!

[Dr Z]

The Surveyor said:

History of F1 is littered with 'should have' 'could have' stories which is why it's such a fascinating sport, and one that has much more depth than simple statistics (or even complex statistics!) can show. Being in the right team at the right time, working with that team in a positive and productive way rather than a divisive way, being lucky, making your own luck, are all elements that contribute to the raw statistics.

JB is a superb driver, a great racer, but to his credit I think he's been a little too 'nice' to make that final microscopic step up to F1 'greatness', not quite ruthless enough. Margins are tiny in F1, success in a season defining race can be measured in hundredths of a second in quali, inches in braking zones etc. He's less gung-ho and plays the percentage game better than others but whilst he may be as quick as others including LH or FA he seams more wired up to finish at all cost rather than win at all cost. More Prost than Senna if you like!

As a fan of his, I think I can live with the fact that he's not a "great". If greatness is achieved by being ruthless and generally being a bd towards one's competitors, then it is quite a compliment actually. I like that about him, and I find drivers like that far more inspiring than the ones that are statistically a 'great' but are known for being ruthless. I'm just glad Brawn happened so it allows his talents to be recognised.