The Official 2016 German Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

The Official 2016 German Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

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Dr Z

Original Poster:

3,396 posts

170 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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Date(s): Friday 29 July - Sunday 31 July 2016

UK Broadcast Timings (and local time)

All sessions are live on Sky F1, with highlights of qualifying and race shown at Channel 4.

Session Day Sky F1 Channel 4 Session Start Local Time
Practice 1 Fri 0845 - 0900 1000
Practice 2 Fri 1245 - 1300 1400
Practice 3 Sat 0945 - 1000 1100
Qualifying Sat 1200 1730 1300 1400
Race Sun 1130 1800 1300 1400


Hockenheimring, Baden-Württemberg



Live timing for all sessions available here:

http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/f1-...

Info such as lap times, PU use, technical reports, stewards decisions etc for the weekend will appear here:

http://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-one-world-ch...

Weather forecast:

http://www.myweather2.com/Motor-Racing/Germany/Hoc...

Session Comment Air Temp (°C) Cloud Cover Rainfall (mm)
Practice 1 Partly Cloudy 23-25 56% 0.0
Practice 2 Partly Cloudy 26-27 53% 0.1
Practice 3 Cloudy 24-25 74% 0.0
Qualifying Light Rain Shower 25-26 88% 0.2
Race Thundery shower possible 25-27 83% 0.1



The tyre choices requested by the teams:



Pirelli nominated tyres are Medium and Soft for the race.

Some extra info from Pirelli:



2014 Qualifying

Pos. Driver Constructor Q1 Q2 Q3
1 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1:17.631 1:17.109 1:16.540
2 Valtteri Bottas Williams-Mercedes 1:18.215 1:17.353 1:16.759
3 Felipe Massa Williams-Mercedes 1:18.381 1:17.370 1:17.078
4 Kevin Magnussen McLaren-Mercedes 1:18.260 1:17.788 1:17.214
5 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull Racing-Renault 1:18.117 1:17.855 1:17.273
6 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull Racing-Renault 1:18.194 1:17.646 1:17.577
7 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 1:18.389 1:17.866 1:17.649
8 Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso-Renault 1:18.530 1:18.103 1:17.965
9 Nico Hülkenberg Force India-Mercedes 1:18.927 1:18.017 1:18.014
10 Sergio Pérez Force India-Mercedes 1:18.916 1:18.161 1:18.035
11 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1:18.425 1:18.193 -
12 Kimi Räikkönen Ferrari 1:18.534 1:18.273 -
13 Jean-Éric Vergne Toro Rosso-Renault 1:18.496 1:18.285 -
14 Esteban Gutiérrez Sauber-Ferrari 1:18.739 1:18.787 -
15 Romain Grosjean Lotus-Renault 1:18.894 1:18.983 -
16 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1:18.683 no time -
17 Adrian Sutil Sauber-Ferrari 1:19.142 - -
18 Jules Bianchi Marussia-Ferrari 1:19.676 - -
19 Pastor Maldonado Lotus-Renault 1:20.195 - -
20 Kamui Kobayashi Caterham-Renault 1:20.408 - -
21 Max Chilton Marussia-Ferrari 1:20.489 - -
NC Marcus Ericsson Caterham-Renault no time - -


2014 Race

Pos. Driver Constructor Laps Time/Retired Grid
1 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 67 1:33:42.914 1
2 Valtteri Bottas Williams-Mercedes 67 +20.789 2
3 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 67 +22.530 20
4 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull Racing-Renault 67 +44.014 6
5 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 67 +52.467 7
6 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull Racing-Renault 67 +52.549 5
7 Nico Hülkenberg Force India-Mercedes 67 +1:04.178 9
8 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 67 +1:24.711 11
9 Kevin Magnussen McLaren-Mercedes 66 +1 Lap 4
10 Sergio Pérez Force India-Mercedes 66 +1 Lap 10
11 Kimi Räikkönen Ferrari 66 +1 Lap 12
12 Pastor Maldonado Lotus-Renault 66 +1 Lap 18
13 Jean-Éric Vergne Toro Rosso-Renault 66 +1 Lap 13
14 Esteban Gutiérrez Sauber-Ferrari 66 +1 Lap 16
15 Jules Bianchi Marussia-Ferrari 66 +1 Lap 17
16 Kamui Kobayashi Caterham-Renault 65 +2 Laps 19
17 Max Chilton Marussia-Ferrari 65 +2 Laps 21
18 Marcus Ericsson Caterham-Renault 65 +2 Laps PL
Ret Adrian Sutil Sauber-Ferrari 47 Spun off 15
Ret Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso-Renault 44 Oil leak 8
Ret Romain Grosjean Lotus-Renault 26 Water leak 14
Ret Felipe Massa Williams-Mercedes 0 Collision 3


Fastest Race Lap: 1:19.908 (L53, L. Hamilton; Mercedes)


The German Grand Prix returns after a gap year. What can we expect? More of Hungary, except a more competitive Williams, perhaps?

Pirelli have gone conservative at this race compared to other races this year where they brought a softer compound to previous years--they brought the Soft and Super Soft for the 2014 race. So, the pace improvements seen this weekend will be mostly due to car developments. I’m predicting pole in the low 1:14s. Tyres wise, only Force India have ordered extra mediums to run in the practice session. Will be interesting to see if they can work that tyre into their strategy plans.

A good all rounder is necessary to go fast at this track, i.e. you need a Mercedes. The track rewards good stability under braking, with some fairly heavy braking events through the lap and the one big braking zone into T6. The Verstappens of the world rejoice! More time to defend vigorously. wink

The track also has good power sensitivity due to the amount of acceleration from low speed, with good traction and low-medium speed cornering performance also helping a great deal. The downforce requirements is said to be at the medium level for this track. I’m waiting to see the size of the barn door Red Bull will run regardless. biggrin Joking aside, there’s a lot of time to be gained in S1 and S3, so probably a good compromise is necessary.

Looking at the sector times from 2014, Williams had the quickest car in S2 whilst Red Bull had the second best car in both S1 and S3, and not far off the Mercedes. I’m hoping that Red Bull can take the fight to Mercedes this weekend. I suspect this year’s race will reveal how far Williams have fallen since the heady heights of 2014. Back then, McLaren also had a decent car in Sector 3; it will be interesting to see how far they have improved or regressed, with Sector 2 also being a good indicator of aero efficiency/low speed grip/traction.

Cool conditions are expected, with some rain around in Friday and Saturday.

Edited by Dr Z on Wednesday 27th July 12:36

rsbmw

3,464 posts

104 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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Looking at the 2014 data, this wouldn't be an awful place for LH to start from the back of the grid. Expect he'd rather build up (or at least try to) a bigger championship lead first though, so he can take his penalties and still be leading the championship assuming he can finish in the top 5.

37chevy

3,280 posts

155 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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Hmmm think Hamilton will want to try and extend his lead going into the summer break...more mind games so may take his penalties at spa or Monza instead

LaurasOtherHalf

21,429 posts

195 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
It's an interesting theory re LH taking the penalty early. I can understand wanting to increase the lead into the summer break but let's be honest, that's not guaranteed. Nico could be on form or LH's Merc could st itself.

If I were LH, I think I'd rather take the punishment now and get it over with. Everyone expects NR to experience some reliability issues before the end of the year but it doesn't work like that does it? And if he doesn't I'd want as many races as possible in which to score good points

suffolk009

5,344 posts

164 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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Wouldn't it make more sense for HAM to start at the back in Monza or Spa. They're both big power circuits, so even if he starts from the back, he's likely to end up top four. Surely?

His main hope though must be that Nico doesn't get pole on that day.

lee_fr200

5,476 posts

189 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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He mentioned spa on sky F1


tertius

6,838 posts

229 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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I'm sure this is obvious, but what is the point of nominating a single set of the Medium tyre? I don't see what you could possibly do with a single set.

Is it simply that they have to nominate three different tyres, and they actually don't expect to ever use the Medium, so bring 1 set and "lose" the minimum number of sets on that nomination?

M3ax

1,291 posts

211 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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Thanks Dr Z!

EnglishTony

2,552 posts

98 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
quotequote all
I read it that they have to use 1 set of medium fir the race in addition to a set of soft.

Why you'd only want one set of the medium and thus not have a set for for testing long runs with I don't know.

Perhaps they feel that they have enough data on the mediums

slipstream 1985

12,127 posts

178 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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Force india cleary thinking on a 1 stopper.

FurballS2000

1,052 posts

164 months

Tuesday 26th July 2016
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Fantastic thread opener as always :P

Looking forward to this one, going over to Germany to see it!

First Grand Prix biggrin

2lefthands

400 posts

138 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
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EnglishTony said:
I read it that they have to use 1 set of medium fir the race in addition to a set of soft.

Why you'd only want one set of the medium and thus not have a set for for testing long runs with I don't know.

Perhaps they feel that they have enough data on the mediums
Each driver must run one of the nominated tires in the race, so here, at least one set of medium or soft tires.

This years rules related to tires I think have really spiced things up.

suffolk009

5,344 posts

164 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
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I see James Allison is leaving Ferrari, with immediate effect.

He'll be in demand.


AndrewEH1

4,917 posts

152 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
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suffolk009 said:
I see James Allison is leaving Ferrari, with immediate effect.

He'll be in demand.
I believe he has some personal family issues to deal with? Read it in an article linked in the last thread.

Edit: His wife died in March frown With three children perhaps working in Italy was too far away.

Edited by AndrewEH1 on Wednesday 27th July 09:31

cgt2

7,093 posts

187 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
quotequote all
AndrewEH1 said:
I believe he has some personal family issues to deal with? Read it in an article linked in the last thread.

Edit: His wife died in March frown With three children perhaps working in Italy was too far away.

Edited by AndrewEH1 on Wednesday 27th July 09:31
Correct, he will most likely choose to spend time with his kids for awhile so I wouldn't get too excited about him going somewhere else immediately. He has left Ferrari for family reasons.

LaurasOtherHalf

21,429 posts

195 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
quotequote all
suffolk009 said:
Wouldn't it make more sense for HAM to start at the back in Monza or Spa. They're both big power circuits, so even if he starts from the back, he's likely to end up top four. Surely?

His main hope though must be that Nico doesn't get pole on that day.
It more than likely would but I think LH has been pretty canny at playing NR since monaco 2014. LH has 3 possible outcomes this weekend....

1/LH beats NR fair and square which puts LH in a good frame of mind for the summer break although he knows he will take a penalty on the return to racing

2/NR beats LH fair and square which puts NR in a good frame of mind as he knows LH will take a penalty on the return to racing.

3/LH takes his penalty now which lets NR beat him, but crucially lets him beat him on his own terms.

No3 for me emphasises to NR he's only got the lead in the championship due to the long game LH is playing. Sports physcology is an incredibly interesting subject, though I'm maybe looking into things a little too much smile

Dr Z

Original Poster:

3,396 posts

170 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
quotequote all
FurballS2000 said:
Fantastic thread opener as always :P

Looking forward to this one, going over to Germany to see it!

First Grand Prix biggrin
Thanks, hope you have a good one, but I'm not too optimistic for the race! getmecoat

tertius said:
I'm sure this is obvious, but what is the point of nominating a single set of the Medium tyre? I don't see what you could possibly do with a single set.

Is it simply that they have to nominate three different tyres, and they actually don't expect to ever use the Medium, so bring 1 set and "lose" the minimum number of sets on that nomination?

You got it. Plus, it's a back up in case something goes very wrong during the race due to unforeseen tyre degradation etc. However, there is one thing not clear from the info out there:

EnglishTony said:
I read it that they have to use 1 set of medium fir the race in addition to a set of soft.

Why you'd only want one set of the medium and thus not have a set for for testing long runs with I don't know.

Perhaps they feel that they have enough data on the mediums
The link below seems to suggest that teams will have to use one set of Medium and Soft in the race, but I have never seen this info repeated anywhere else. Pirelli have never nominated two compounds to be run in the race like this during this year, so I'm confused. Even though the Super Soft and Medium are low working range tyres, it is very strange for 10 out of 11 teams to be so confident of racing the Medium tyre without even having a look in the practice sessions. Something doesn't quite add up.

http://www.pirelli.com/corporate/en/press/2016/05/...


em177

3,127 posts

163 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
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Merc will have run countless simulations with Lewis starting at the back on all the remaining tracks to calculate which is the least risk. Both in terms of getting up the field quickly, and staying out of first lap issues.

Galileo

3,145 posts

217 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
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Looks to me like only Force India have read that memo.

Dr Z

Original Poster:

3,396 posts

170 months

Wednesday 27th July 2016
quotequote all
slipstream 1985 said:
Force india cleary thinking on a 1 stopper.
Did a quick analysis of the tyre strategies employed in the 2014 race:

Super Soft 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
No. of drivers 18 4 5 9
Minimum laps 1 2 8 6
25th Percentile 12.75 5 9.5 12.5
Median 14 15.5 11 14
75th Percentile 15.25 19.25 16.5 17.5
Maximum laps 20 20 21 24
Soft 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
No. of drivers 3 17 15 4
Minimum laps 20 15 12 16
25th Percentile 20 16.5 16 16.25
Median 24 21 22 19
75th Percentile 26 25 27 21.75
Maximum laps 26 28 30 22


From this data, the quickest for a top 10 car looks to me, a 2-stopper: 15 laps on the Super Soft followed by two stints on the Soft tyre 24 and 28 laps long. To do a viable 1-stopper, you are asking more than 40 laps on the mediums and that's assuming you're starting on the Softs to do a reasonably aggressive 1st stint. The strategy is worthless if you start on the Super Soft, having to baby them for 25-odd laps to make the 1-stopper work, IMO.

Looking at the tyre life teams got out of the Softs at the 2014 race, I'd say 20% more race distance out of them in the 3rd stint compared to the 2nd stint. So, a 1-stopper on the Medium tyres is essentially asking 1.5 times the race distance of the Soft in the 3rd stint. It's should be do-able dependent on the pace advantage of the Soft vs Medium at this track, can be anywhere from 0.5-0.8s/lap. Pit stop time is around 18 seconds here, a bit touch and go-I feel between a 1-stopper vs 2-stopper. Depends how long the 2-stopper can lean on the Soft tyres to make up that time lost in the pits, especially this being a rear-limited circuit due to the traction demands.