The Official 2016 Belgian Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**
Discussion
Dr Z said:
Leave my day job and be a PH F1 analyst...sounds like my dream job! 
Day job pays so I better do well in it!
Dr Z - it's for PH i.e. the Greater Good Day job pays so I better do well in it!
williamp said:
Thanks as always. We dont ***need*** as much info as you provide, but its always very welcome, so thanks for all the hard work.
maybe a template is needed, where others can fill in the blanks as required? I'd be happy to do some (a part of me has always wanted to start one of these threads...
You should do the next one then! I tend to start them off 10 days before the race (if it's not a back-to-back race), but leave some gap from the previous race. Just quote the OP of this thread and you'll have a template to work off on. I get the tyre allocation jpeg link from the F1 or Pirelli motorsport twitter account, the circuit figure from the fia website, broadcast and session timings from the F1 app. Live timing link is the same for all races. The rest is a bit of fluff (that takes most of the time actually!), so skip or if you'd like to give some comments from your POV of the upcoming race, go for it. maybe a template is needed, where others can fill in the blanks as required? I'd be happy to do some (a part of me has always wanted to start one of these threads...
williamp - think you have had the baton passed to your hand by Dr Z - and as he says - Go for it!
Is it possible to have a Wiki for each race based on Dr Z's template? It's a great resource that I use loads and would be a shame to lose it, relying on one poster to create it 20 times a year seems a bit harsh so if the load could be spread out it may be a better long term solution?
I'd like to add a big thanks for the Zee man 
honestly your posts have been the best OP i've had the pleasure of reading, it is appreciated, thank you for your time and i hope work aint too hard on you
Looking forward to some penaltys for LH here, never thought i'd say that but my mouth is watering at the thought of him coming through the pack
honestly your posts have been the best OP i've had the pleasure of reading, it is appreciated, thank you for your time and i hope work aint too hard on you
Looking forward to some penaltys for LH here, never thought i'd say that but my mouth is watering at the thought of him coming through the pack
Thanks for the kind messages guys!
Maybe OT but catching up on the news at AMuS, saw this and had to post:
GPS trace of the qualifying laps of Hamilton and Verstappen in Silverstone!
Showing where RB/Verstappen combo is stronger than Merc/Hamilton and vice versa.
This one from the qualifying laps from Hungary:
Bits of Ricciardo's trace missing here but this is gold dust!
Maybe OT but catching up on the news at AMuS, saw this and had to post:
GPS trace of the qualifying laps of Hamilton and Verstappen in Silverstone!
Showing where RB/Verstappen combo is stronger than Merc/Hamilton and vice versa.
This one from the qualifying laps from Hungary:
Bits of Ricciardo's trace missing here but this is gold dust!
Flooble said:
Amazing stuff, although I am scratching my head. The Merc clearly has a power advantage (acceleration and top speed) but in some corners it appears to hold more speed while in others Red Bull is ahead.
Possibility this is driving style? I might be seeing Hamilton being very aggressive on entry and to apex, and maybe Max getting out relatively well? Big differences at Beckets but I'm sure that's driving style and what the drivers are prioritizing in the sector?I'm surprised at the apex speeds as I'd expect RB aero to be giving an advantage here (And maybe at the end of the braking phase etc).
On balance, I'd say it's a bit depressing as the Merc looks relatively strong everywhere not just on power.
Great find Dr Z ! It warrants a load more studying.
Hungrymc said:
Possibility this is driving style? I might be seeing Hamilton being very aggressive on entry and to apex, and maybe Max getting out relatively well? Big differences at Beckets but I'm sure that's driving style and what the drivers are prioritizing in the sector?
I'm surprised at the apex speeds as I'd expect RB aero to be giving an advantage here (And maybe at the end of the braking phase etc).
On balance, I'd say it's a bit depressing as the Merc looks relatively strong everywhere not just on power.
The Mercedes is going faster at the end of the straight obviously. Hamilton is also able to carry that advantage into the corner. What I find striking is how having had such a disadvantage at the end of the straight and in the early part of the corner, the Red Bull is then equally fast through the apex and exit of the corner suggesting that Red Bull have maintained their trademark on-power handling and traction. Presumably this comes from their underbody / floor aero and mechanical grip?I'm surprised at the apex speeds as I'd expect RB aero to be giving an advantage here (And maybe at the end of the braking phase etc).
On balance, I'd say it's a bit depressing as the Merc looks relatively strong everywhere not just on power.
Mercedes can afford to be greedy with their downforce due to their power advantage, Red Bull have to do more with less. The slight reluctance to turn in (witness the slower corner entry speeds of the Red Bull) is a compromise RB have made on upper body downforce to compensate for their lack of power. In terms of race pace, if you are going to have to lose time somewhere it’s best to lose it in corner entry, hence the best way to save fuel across the teams is ‘lift and coast’.
This is news to no-one but of course you can expect Red Bull of all people to be able to readily increase their downforce levels as the Renault PU improves, and if more improvements are forthcoming it’d be tough to bet against Red Bull being strong into the end of this season and quite possibly right up there in 2017 when underbody downforce / ‘ground effect’ will play a greater role.
TL;DR Red Bull are rapidly approaching a tipping point in their PU development which will enable them to unleash their potential in terms of aero grip and tyre longevity.
HustleRussell said:
The Mercedes is going faster at the end of the straight obviously. Hamilton is also able to carry that advantage into the corner. What I find striking is how having had such a disadvantage at the end of the straight and in the early part of the corner, the Red Bull is then equally fast through the apex and exit of the corner suggesting that Red Bull have maintained their trademark on-power handling and traction. Presumably this comes from their underbody / floor aero and mechanical grip?
Mercedes can afford to be greedy with their downforce due to their power advantage, Red Bull have to do more with less. The slight reluctance to turn in (witness the slower corner entry speeds of the Red Bull) is a compromise RB have made on upper body downforce to compensate for their lack of power. In terms of race pace, if you are going to have to lose time somewhere it’s best to lose it in corner entry, hence the best way to save fuel across the teams is ‘lift and coast’.
This is news to no-one but of course you can expect Red Bull of all people to be able to readily increase their downforce levels as the Renault PU improves, and if more improvements are forthcoming it’d be tough to bet against Red Bull being strong into the end of this season and quite possibly right up there in 2017 when underbody downforce / ‘ground effect’ will play a greater role.
TL;DR Red Bull are rapidly approaching a tipping point in their PU development which will enable them to unleash their potential in terms of aero grip and tyre longevity.
You make very good points.Mercedes can afford to be greedy with their downforce due to their power advantage, Red Bull have to do more with less. The slight reluctance to turn in (witness the slower corner entry speeds of the Red Bull) is a compromise RB have made on upper body downforce to compensate for their lack of power. In terms of race pace, if you are going to have to lose time somewhere it’s best to lose it in corner entry, hence the best way to save fuel across the teams is ‘lift and coast’.
This is news to no-one but of course you can expect Red Bull of all people to be able to readily increase their downforce levels as the Renault PU improves, and if more improvements are forthcoming it’d be tough to bet against Red Bull being strong into the end of this season and quite possibly right up there in 2017 when underbody downforce / ‘ground effect’ will play a greater role.
TL;DR Red Bull are rapidly approaching a tipping point in their PU development which will enable them to unleash their potential in terms of aero grip and tyre longevity.
The only thing I would challenge is that the later phase of braking (not initial phase which is dictated by outright speed - but where the curves converge in DR Z's plots), through be apex and out to the point of the cars being straight should really favour the car with most grip (therefore aero in faster corners). Completely accept that Merc can run aggressive on aero due to power advantage but its hard to draw conclusions with the drag impact on straight line performance of RB's famed strong aero. The perception is certainly that RBs aero is very efficient and has less impact - not sure I've seen evidence of this though other than anecdotal observations in previous years.
The lift / coast argument is also a good one and may be another angle on my driving style question (ie, what the driver is doing as opposed to what the car is ultimately capable of at that point on track). The complex leading up to Becketts really doesn't suggest they will have such a large delta at the apex of Becketts - this has to be a subtle difference in where they are carrying speed and where they are compromising for the corner / straight.
Great data anyway.
When I first saw the Silverstone trace, the immediate thought was Red Bull being the 'draggier' car of the two, especially as the speed advantage of the Merc only appears to come in play at speeds in excess of 200 kph where the drag penalty is more pronounced, but in reality the speed disadvantage is likely due to a combination of drag and ERS/ICE output. As the lap goes on, it looks like the RenaultTag-Heuer ERS is spreading itself thin and the boost out of the corners is not so potent as the Merc.
I'm reminded of the comments Paddy and Toto made in the British GP weekend about the Red Bull car.
It’s the whole package surely?
The Merc apex speeds are higher in low speed corners compared to the Red Bull, most notable in T16 and T3...Paddy’s comments suggest that his team is running less downforce/wing than Red Bull, but the Merc is able to match the Red Bull in the high speed corners too...it’s not like the Red Bull is pulling out a big advantage in those corners...Hamilton is carrying way more speed into the corners and able to match the apex speeds of the Red Bull with superior downforce (if Paddy’s assertion is true)...how can that be explained? And the Merc is clearly superior in the low speed corners, and has a big punch out of most corners too.
While this is quite depressing, the Hungary plot is a lot more encouraging, where in the first half of the lap the Merc doing it’s usual thing but the RB was fighting back in the second half gaining handsomely in some corners. I hope this trend continues into 2017.
I found the overall plot too if reading the speed trace was hard:
I'm reminded of the comments Paddy and Toto made in the British GP weekend about the Red Bull car.
Paddy Lowe said:
Silverstone is a circuit which is undoubtedly a real test of a car, power and aerodynamics. It’s interesting that Red Bull are constantly peddling a story about the low power they’ve got, but just to set the record straight at this event as they often do, they chose to run a higher level of wing than we did. Therefore they look like they have less power and they’re quicker in the corners, because that’s the choice they make. The reality is there’s not a huge difference between the engines these days, but there are still differences between the downforce you can run.
It's funny to see Paddy moaning at Red Bull for running a bigger wing, with more alleged downforce levels than Merc...I'm not so sure it's as simple as bigger the “wing levels”, greater the drag penalty and therefore quicker in the corners, especially as RB also have one of the shortest wheelbases and largest rake angles (along with FI and McLaren) on the grid:It’s the whole package surely?
The Merc apex speeds are higher in low speed corners compared to the Red Bull, most notable in T16 and T3...Paddy’s comments suggest that his team is running less downforce/wing than Red Bull, but the Merc is able to match the Red Bull in the high speed corners too...it’s not like the Red Bull is pulling out a big advantage in those corners...Hamilton is carrying way more speed into the corners and able to match the apex speeds of the Red Bull with superior downforce (if Paddy’s assertion is true)...how can that be explained? And the Merc is clearly superior in the low speed corners, and has a big punch out of most corners too.
While this is quite depressing, the Hungary plot is a lot more encouraging, where in the first half of the lap the Merc doing it’s usual thing but the RB was fighting back in the second half gaining handsomely in some corners. I hope this trend continues into 2017.
I found the overall plot too if reading the speed trace was hard:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37082165
BBC gossip page - "Mercedes would prefer Lewis to take engine penalty at Monza not Spa because it's easier to overtake."
I disagree. The chassis means more at Spa and I think they will have a larger advantage over the mid-field teams at Spa. He could easily get stuck behind Williams or a Force India at Monza.
And he is more likely to get into a first lap incident at Monza.
BBC gossip page - "Mercedes would prefer Lewis to take engine penalty at Monza not Spa because it's easier to overtake."
I disagree. The chassis means more at Spa and I think they will have a larger advantage over the mid-field teams at Spa. He could easily get stuck behind Williams or a Force India at Monza.
And he is more likely to get into a first lap incident at Monza.
Good points both but I guess Mercedes has plugged all the data into its supercomputer and it says Monza. I'm sure Hamilton would relish a fight from the back at Spa but he did imply before the summer break that he was more likely to take the hit at Monza or maybe even later in the season.
GTO-3R said:
With the weather being how it can be at Spa, surely Merc would also take in to account safety cars and Lewis being able to jump a few spots after it? Bit of a gamble that there is going to be a safety car but if he's trying to cut through the field anyway then it will only benefit.
That's my opinion as well in a way: which track has the highest likelihood of pace cars together with which first corner has the lowest number of accidents for the mid/back field.Which circuit does LH find it easier to overtake is a consideration.
Another point is that it infrequently rains in Italy - I hope this is true as I'm in the Amalfie coast for the race. I'm told it is best to watch the race together with a load of Italians.
I would assume that LH's target would be the top four places, 2-4 in practice.
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