The Official 2016 Belgian Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

[suffolk009]

Pebbles167 said:

Reckon Gasly will replace Kvyat next year?

I think somebody will. And maybe before the end of the season.

[glazbagun]

oobster said:

Leroy902 said:

Whatever happens, I hope Mclaren drop JB and get some new blood into the team, he's had his time in the spotlight, time to retire.

I think he's still got a lot to offer an F1 team, if McLaren DO drop him then i'd like to see him get Massa's place at Williams for a season or two before JB calls it a day on his F1 career.

I'd be happy with that, though IMO Bottas hasn't really been living up to his 2014 promise either.

[allegerita]

Report from trackside: i am wearing my PH T shirt but nobody seems to recognise. Quali was fun to watch but way too many people restricting my eye view.

Temps are high, On my evening prayers for rain right now.

[jbudgie]

BlimeyCharlie said:

I've got a bet on the go to see how many times Jonathan Palmer is featured in the pit garage on the telly.

Is the TV director a family member?

It's awful isn't it, and does he only have a green shirt.

[rubystone]

suffolk009 said:

I think somebody will. And maybe before the end of the season.

Ghasly seems to have turned his season around. If he wins the GP2 title id say he's a shoe-in to replace Kyvat for the later rounds. Can't see anyone else getting that seat.

Some talk though of Williams talking to Vandoorne though. Could make sense; FW and RD are good mates.

[Derek Smith]

suffolk009 said:

Seems reasonable, but then you have to remember that the Power Units are down to the Engine suppliers - they are turn key products. The teams barely touch them. Merc and others have their mechanics embedded in customer teams, wearing their gear.

So what do you do, punish the engine manufacturers? Or their customers?

What you do is accept that a/ the cost savings were illusory, and b/ that the current regs are farcical.

It was a pointless exercise. It is not as if costs haven't risen year after year. Just accept that they got it wrong and move on.

[VolvoT5]

vonuber said:

Clever use of the rules by Merc. The car is so much faster than the others over the race I expect Hamilton to be on the podium as a minimum; if Rosberg hits trouble then a Hamilton win.

Really, you expect Hamilton to come right from the back and still manage to get past both Red Bulls and Ferraris? That seems quite optimistic to me unless there is carnage at turn 1 or it pisses down with rain at some point.

The Ferrari and Red Bull pace has been decent this weekend, I don't think Mercedes have so much in hand that Lewis will cruise up and pass everyone easily.... especially not as his long runs in Q3 were poor - he couldn't keep the tyres alive.

[Flooble]

The guys praying for rain - if Hamilton fans - have you considered that he has a low downforce setup in an attempt to let him overtake on the straights? Rain is going to hurt Hamilton badly.

If the guys praying for rain are not Hamilton fans on the other hand - yep, should make things really good fun!

[markcoznottz]

Rosbergs car looked every bit 950 bhp or thereabouts today, never seen such speed from an f1 car at spa.

[Crafty_]

Flooble said:

The guys praying for rain - if Hamilton fans - have you considered that he has a low downforce setup in an attempt to let him overtake on the straights? Rain is going to hurt Hamilton badly.

If the guys praying for rain are not Hamilton fans on the other hand - yep, should make things really good fun!

We don't know that he has a low DF set up. Arguably he may have gone more the other way, given that he didn't need outright speed for qualifying.

[London424]

Crafty_ said:

Flooble said:

The guys praying for rain - if Hamilton fans - have you considered that he has a low downforce setup in an attempt to let him overtake on the straights? Rain is going to hurt Hamilton badly.

If the guys praying for rain are not Hamilton fans on the other hand - yep, should make things really good fun!

We don't know that he has a low DF set up. Arguably he may have gone more the other way, given that he didn't need outright speed for qualifying.

If it does rain they could just chuck a wet setup on and start from the pit lane if they really wanted. Not like he's going to be much worse off than now.

[Derek Smith]

VolvoT5 said:

Really, you expect Hamilton to come right from the back and still manage to get past both Red Bulls and Ferraris? That seems quite optimistic to me unless there is carnage at turn 1 or it pisses down with rain at some point.

The Ferrari and Red Bull pace has been decent this weekend, I don't think Mercedes have so much in hand that Lewis will cruise up and pass everyone easily.... especially not as his long runs in Q3 were poor - he couldn't keep the tyres alive.

I would expect at least one of the RBs/Ferraris to drop out with reliability or, more likely, an incident. If LH can make his way up the pack then he stands a excellent chance at sixth which will keep him in the WDC lead, which I would assume would be his target. I think there will be quite a few pit stops and there's a good chance a bit of tactical pitting could get him in front of Perez even if he could not pass him on track. So perhaps fifth and maybe a good weekend. He's got a few new tyres to play with.

There will be incidents though. If LH can avoid them, he'll do alright. His pass of Hulk might be the critical one.

However, the big unknown is up front. We could be in for a big battle for the lead. How long since that has happened with different makes of car without the Mercs dropping out?

This could, just could, be an epic.

I think, however, there might be a coming together in the first lap or two as they jockey for position. Then there's the DR being enabled and the attempt at the first bit of Les Combes, which could live up to its reputation. Not to mention Bus Stop and, if the lead cars messes up the last corner, then La Source.

Even if NR goes off into the distance, and despite Wolff talking it down, I think there's a very good chance NR will control the race, then there are three drivers all in with their best chance of a win this season. There's a lot of pressure on the youngster though, just to add to the excitement. He has appeared very mature, regardless of his age, but this is the first time he's been at a circuit with everyone seemingly wanting him to win.

So four fairly evenly matched drivers in very evenly matched cars, with their drivers wanting to shine. What could go wrong?

Let's hope they keep it on the black stuff and that we get a real thriller. I'm excited by the potential. I'll have lap timing on as I will want to follow LH's progress and I hope it will be too thrilling for the director to leave the battle for the lead.

[Flooble]

Crafty_ said:

We don't know that he has a low DF set up. Arguably he may have gone more the other way, given that he didn't need outright speed for qualifying.

I thought in the interview he said he had taken wing off? Something about losing 0.4s in the corners but making it back on the straight? Maybe I mis remembered ...

I think HustleRussell said the penalty of starting form the pitlane was significant, so it'd have to be a definite wet race to risk switching to a wet setup? The Extreme Wet tyres are apparently so rubbish that there isn't really any wet racing anyway these days?

[sasha320]

glazbagun said:

I really hope Rosberg fluffs his start here and we see him try to dispatch Max and the two Ferraris.

Lol, not sure Nico can overtake really, let alone race wheel to wheel, once he falls back, that's where he'll stay...

[NRS]

hairyben said:

Even putting the rain aside maxs strat looks weak, early stopping will put him right back in the pack, unless its a bit cooler tomorrow?

Could be interesting to see how maturely rosberg handles a punchy max at the start though

I suspect it is the typical Red Bull strategy. Mess up one driver to try and make sure they get the win when they might have a chance. In this case MV could get ahead of Rosberg from the start and hold him. That gives DR a chance to pass later, since Rosberg is both slowed down and his tyres go off more quickly than they would if he was in the front with clean air. It also means they are on different strategies if something unexpected happens and then Max might get lucky and be out in front compared to the strategy of those around him.

[RichB]

Derek Smith said:

I'll have lap timing on as I will want to follow LH's progress

Which one do you use Derek, assuming you haven't paid for Bernie's one?

[Derek Smith]

RichB said:

Derek Smith said:

I'll have lap timing on as I will want to follow LH's progress

Which one do you use Derek, assuming you haven't paid for Bernie's one?

I normally use the FIA one as I only use it sparingly. But it doesn't give sector times. Do you have another?

Derek

[cheddar]

Dr Z, as always, thank you

Have the Mercs still got the dominant straight line pace they've had all season, the speed trap figures say maybe not and, on this circuit, with the most time spent north of 300 klickety klicks, it's crucial.........

[Dr Z]

Derek Smith said:

cgt2 said:

Dr Z said:

Realistically, I think Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Vettel and Rosberg have a better chance of winning the race as they're starting on the more durable tyre, unless Verstappen can get into the lead and control the race from the front. It will be tough for him, but RB have played a great strategy with both their drivers. Rain should further mix things up, but the timing will be very important--if rain arrives after Verstappen has pitted and everyone around him is still going along in the 1st stint, that'll be his race done. Should be a fascinating race, and if the field is close at the sharp end in Spa, it bodes well for the rest of the year.

I'm thinking rain Doc..

Or a pace car just as his tyres go off and all the leaders charging into the pits. MV will have got his SS stint out of the way.

All sorts of possibilities.

Sure, but the Super Soft in the final stint/2nd half of the race would be the faster option...I doubt Max will be able to extract the full performance of the SS tyre in the heavier 1st stint. A shower at the right time might help him.

hairyben said:

Even putting the rain aside maxs strat looks weak, early stopping will put him right back in the pack, unless its a bit cooler tomorrow?

Yeah, just checked the predicted track temps for the race, and it has changed to around mid 30 C, so definitely cooler than today which would help Max. But the temps are predicted to go down further as the race progresses as there's some cloud cover (see below), so I would think a SS stint on lighter fuel loads would be more favourable...

The tyre performance from yesterday's long runs are inline with what I predicted earlier in the thread so the stint lengths should apply. It's hard to judge how quick the Merc is compared to the competition, but I'd estimate Rosberg's long run on the Soft yesterday to be around 0.2s/lap quicker than the Red Bull. Verstappen should be able to hang in there reasonably well at the start tomorrow but if my calculations are correct, his tyres should start to go off 3-4 laps earlier than the Soft (which in turn should go off after 12 laps). I can see a daring pass at the start, but it's harder to 'nurse' the tyres when the car is heavy so I doubt he'd be able to pull out a big enough advantage on pace and match the stint lengths of the others on the Soft.

[HustleRussell]

I'd like to get excited about Verstappen's chances... On second thoughts though, I'm not sure we'll see a Tag Heuer pass the Mercedes even with the mother of all tows down Kemmel, and by the time DRS is enabled, Rosberg could probably be out of range.

If Verstappen does get past Rosberg off the start though, I'd expect Rosberg could breeze past again before Les Combes.