The Official 2016 Belgian Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**
Discussion
Just needs to keep out of trouble on lap 1 and then boost past people. Though to be fair, given his GP2 driving etc I would not be surprised to see him launching it up the inside of the back markers for the first 10 laps or so until he comes across a car that will give him a run for his money.
Going to be fun to watch.
And even funnier if Nico doesn't win it.
Going to be fun to watch.
And even funnier if Nico doesn't win it.
suffolk009 said:
It should at least make the race much more interesting.
LH needs to keep out of trouble for the first lap. He needs to make up a few places in the first lap. So no conflict there.It should make things interesting. This could be a fun race.
If he comes out of this with the lead of the WDC then he'll be happy I think.
Flooble said:
If Hamilton comes out of this still leading the WDC then Nico is going to have to have a really hard look at himself.
Not really. Hamilton only needs to finish 7th to still lead the championship if Rosberg wins, or at least be equal on points. That means that even if Rosberg aces it Hamilton probably doesn't even need to overtake a Ferrari or Red bull.
Seeing a few of you like these mangled analyses I post, I did a short analysis of tyre usage from last year, and wanted to post some predictions before a wheel has turned for the weekend but only got around to it now.
Of the 13 sets of dry tyre allocations for each weekend per driver, the teams must return 2 sets at the conclusion of a practice session (6 sets returned in total before qualifying). So the tyre choices this weekend, gives a glimpse as to what tyres the top teams will be focusing on in the practice sessions for their preferred strategy.
Among the 2-stopping drivers last year, these were the stint lengths in the 2nd and 3rd stints for the Soft and Medium tyre.
Usually, you see teams are happy to run a tyre for around 20% more of the race distance in the final stint compared to the heavier fuelled 1st or 2nd stints, but it seems not the case with the Soft tyre--teams preferring to split the race distance equally among the 2nd/3rd stints on the Soft. However, the Medium tyre was used to cover more race distance in the 3rd stint vs the 2nd as expected. I don't fully appreciate why teams were reluctant to do the same with the Soft tyre, but I think there are clues in the lap time comparison between Vettel and Grosjean in last year's race. Instead of plotting it myself, here is a nice comparison:
http://en.mclarenf-1.com/index.php?page=chart&...
Both of them started the race at similar positions on the grid but the Lotus had more inherent pace in qualifying than the Ferrari. The lap times suggest that there is a bigger lap time delta between old vs new Softs than the Mediums. In the 1st half of the race, Grosjean on new Softs gained 5.5 seconds on Vettel in 3 laps vs Vettel was on 10 lap old Softs. The undercut is going to play a big part this race.
Compare their times on the Medium tyre when Grosjean pitted under the VSC while Vettel didn’t...it took Grosjean around 21 laps to close down a gap of ~5.2 seconds and a lap time gain of ~1.7s in the first 5 laps for Grosjean. This is another big clue...under normal circumstances, it will be impossible to make up the time loss in the pits in a 3-stop strategy vs a 2-stop on cars that are at similar pace. At first glance, Ferrari’s tyre selection suggests they may be going for a 3-stop but I think there is still some flexibility there.
Here’s how I think the race distances will be split on a 2-stop vs 3-stop strategy for Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari. My prediction for the Super soft is based on other circuits where it is normally run for around 70% of the race distance of the Softs.
Except the first stint, I haven’t put the tyres in order so it may be switched around depending on race situation. For Hamilton starting near the back, I think it may be favourable to start on the Soft tyres, or may be even the Mediums with the advantage that car has on this track he’s not likely to lose a lot of time to others on the 1st stint where most top 10 drivers are not pushing to the limit on the super soft anyway.
For Ferrari I have assumed that they are not going to use the Medium tyre unlike Red Bull and Mercedes. It looks like a slower strategy for Ferrari but if the conditions are hot, the Ferrari might work the Soft tyres well enough to get themselves in play at the front.
In the 3-stop for Red Bull, I have included the Medium tyre--it is not ideal to run a slower tyre on a ‘fast’ strategy but I’m assuming Red Bull will do an early first stop like they did last year in which case, it will be hard to run the Soft to meet the required stint lengths and have good performance left to react to a situation in-race. Depends if there’s no one in sight for miles either side.
I have always put the Super Soft in the final stint of a 3-stopper, but it may be substituted for Softs depending on the longevity of the performance available on the Super Softs. If there is a big drop off in performance of Super Softs after 4-5 hard laps, then it may be favourable to run the Softs in the final stint if there's a good chance of catching an opponent to overtake. All depends on the race situation.
FP2 starting soon...may have a look at long runs tomorrow if I have time.
Of the 13 sets of dry tyre allocations for each weekend per driver, the teams must return 2 sets at the conclusion of a practice session (6 sets returned in total before qualifying). So the tyre choices this weekend, gives a glimpse as to what tyres the top teams will be focusing on in the practice sessions for their preferred strategy.
Among the 2-stopping drivers last year, these were the stint lengths in the 2nd and 3rd stints for the Soft and Medium tyre.
| Tyre | Stint | Average laps | Max laps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medium | 2nd | 17.17 | 19 |
| Medium | 3rd | 19.43 | 23 |
| Soft | 2nd | 13.14 | 17 |
| Soft | 3rd | 13.5 | 16 |
Usually, you see teams are happy to run a tyre for around 20% more of the race distance in the final stint compared to the heavier fuelled 1st or 2nd stints, but it seems not the case with the Soft tyre--teams preferring to split the race distance equally among the 2nd/3rd stints on the Soft. However, the Medium tyre was used to cover more race distance in the 3rd stint vs the 2nd as expected. I don't fully appreciate why teams were reluctant to do the same with the Soft tyre, but I think there are clues in the lap time comparison between Vettel and Grosjean in last year's race. Instead of plotting it myself, here is a nice comparison:
http://en.mclarenf-1.com/index.php?page=chart&...
Both of them started the race at similar positions on the grid but the Lotus had more inherent pace in qualifying than the Ferrari. The lap times suggest that there is a bigger lap time delta between old vs new Softs than the Mediums. In the 1st half of the race, Grosjean on new Softs gained 5.5 seconds on Vettel in 3 laps vs Vettel was on 10 lap old Softs. The undercut is going to play a big part this race.
Compare their times on the Medium tyre when Grosjean pitted under the VSC while Vettel didn’t...it took Grosjean around 21 laps to close down a gap of ~5.2 seconds and a lap time gain of ~1.7s in the first 5 laps for Grosjean. This is another big clue...under normal circumstances, it will be impossible to make up the time loss in the pits in a 3-stop strategy vs a 2-stop on cars that are at similar pace. At first glance, Ferrari’s tyre selection suggests they may be going for a 3-stop but I think there is still some flexibility there.
Here’s how I think the race distances will be split on a 2-stop vs 3-stop strategy for Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari. My prediction for the Super soft is based on other circuits where it is normally run for around 70% of the race distance of the Softs.
| Team | Strategy | 1st Stint | 2nd Stint | 3rd Stint | 4th Stint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrari | 2 stop | SS 8 | S 17 | S 19 | - |
| Ferrari | 3 stop | SS 8 | S 13 | S 13 | SS 10 |
| Red Bull | 2 stop | SS 8 | M 19 | S 17 | - |
| Red Bull | 3 stop | SS 5 | S 15 | M 16 | SS 9 |
| Mercedes | 2 stop | SS 8 | M 20 | S 16 | - |
| Mercedes | 3 stop | SS 7 | S 14 | S 15 | SS 8 |
Except the first stint, I haven’t put the tyres in order so it may be switched around depending on race situation. For Hamilton starting near the back, I think it may be favourable to start on the Soft tyres, or may be even the Mediums with the advantage that car has on this track he’s not likely to lose a lot of time to others on the 1st stint where most top 10 drivers are not pushing to the limit on the super soft anyway.
For Ferrari I have assumed that they are not going to use the Medium tyre unlike Red Bull and Mercedes. It looks like a slower strategy for Ferrari but if the conditions are hot, the Ferrari might work the Soft tyres well enough to get themselves in play at the front.
In the 3-stop for Red Bull, I have included the Medium tyre--it is not ideal to run a slower tyre on a ‘fast’ strategy but I’m assuming Red Bull will do an early first stop like they did last year in which case, it will be hard to run the Soft to meet the required stint lengths and have good performance left to react to a situation in-race. Depends if there’s no one in sight for miles either side.
I have always put the Super Soft in the final stint of a 3-stopper, but it may be substituted for Softs depending on the longevity of the performance available on the Super Softs. If there is a big drop off in performance of Super Softs after 4-5 hard laps, then it may be favourable to run the Softs in the final stint if there's a good chance of catching an opponent to overtake. All depends on the race situation.
FP2 starting soon...may have a look at long runs tomorrow if I have time.
Edited by Dr Z on Friday 26th August 11:57
HustleRussell said:
The Moose said:
Looks stunning at Spa. Not been and driven there for a few years now but have a real hankering to go back!
Same. My last race in my own car was at Spa in 2013, DNF'd early on from a close 3rd place with upright failure at Les Combes 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VTMMVwrozc
em177 said:
Last time I raced there I went round the outside of 2 cars going up Eau Rouge. Fun times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VTMMVwrozc
Nice! That must've been before they installed those massive sausages just beyond the apex kerb? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VTMMVwrozc
Looking forward to this and praying for rain. I see Lewis has already overtaken Alonso:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/125868...
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/125868...
HustleRussell said:
em177 said:
Last time I raced there I went round the outside of 2 cars going up Eau Rouge. Fun times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VTMMVwrozc
Nice! That must've been before they installed those massive sausages just beyond the apex kerb? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VTMMVwrozc
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