The Official 2016 Belgian Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

[FourWheelDrift]

Bonefish Blues said:

I'm still somewhat nonplussed and lacking in understanding about how LH has been able to leave behind all his engine and transmission woes in one fell swoop. Can anyone point me to somthing which will help the hard of thinking?

Same thing McLaren did last year. Run out of engines, get penalty for an engine change at the race weekend. Penalties are not carried over so make 3 engine changes to introduce new engines that can be used and take all the penalties in one go, can't do any worse than start last in one race.

FIA in a not thought through a rule shocker.

[rsbmw]

Disastrous said:

I think taking all the stats and points aside, Sunday suggests that it will be Hamilton's year again.

F1 has a funny habit of swinging luck and momentum around and you can nearly always pick the guy who has things going his way into the latter half of the season.

For Hamilton to take all those penalties, start at the back and still make it onto the podium has to be the writing on the wall for Rosberg.

He needed not only to win on Sunday, but for Hamilton to have a nightmare, not getting points and consequently retaking the lead and some momentum. Now Hamilton has the lead, no engine penalties, the luck and the momentum.

I'm no Hamilton fan but he's brought this one back round for himself and no mistake.

Even if LH had a DNF, a win in Monza would have given him the lead back regardless of what Rosberg had managed.

Bonefish Blues said:

I'm still somewhat nonplussed and lacking in understanding about how LH has been able to leave behind all his engine and transmission woes in one fell swoop. Can anyone point me to somthing which will help the hard of thinking?

Simplification - 3 new engines taken at Spa, grid penalties couldn't drop him any further back than the back of the grid (they don't carry over) - job jobbed

[antspants]

Playing devils advocate or most likely just exposing my limited knowledge on the subject, but what's the difference between making one move from the racing line to defend your position usually by making the following driver take the long way round to complete their overtake, and making a defensive move once you see which side the driver behind is going to overtake on and blocking that move?

I'm certainly not defending the move he pulled when Raikkonen tried to overtake on the Kemmel Straight, just wondering if this is why the stewards didn't deem it worth penalising?

Martin Brundle was talking about a driver code of conduct in the commentary, and that Verstappen wasn't conforming to this. Are the actual rules not that specific other than stating a cars width should be left on the track?

[rsbmw]

antspants said:

Playing devils advocate or most likely just exposing my limited knowledge on the subject, but what's the difference between making one move from the racing line to defend your position usually by making the following driver take the long way round to complete their overtake, and making a defensive move once you see which side the driver behind is going to overtake on and blocking that move?

I'm certainly not defending the move he pulled when Raikkonen tried to overtake on the Kemmel Straight, just wondering if this is why the stewards didn't deem it worth penalising?

Martin Brundle was talking about a driver code of conduct in the commentary, and that Verstappen wasn't conforming to this. Are the actual rules not that specific other than stating a cars width should be left on the track?

I think waiting to see which side they are going is fair enough, what Max seems to do is wait until they are fully committed and almost upon him, then move into their path forcing them to hit the brakes or crash (too late to simply switch back). He will also happily move 2-3 times. Both things are not cricket.

[antspants]

rsbmw said:

Both things are not cricket.

I agree, but that's my question. "Not cricket" or clearly in breach of the rules?

Is this just an unofficial drivers agreement of "lets try not kill each other" or are there a set of rules that don't allow it?

[Rude-boy]

rsbmw said:

I think waiting to see which side they are going is fair enough, what Max seems to do is wait until they are fully committed and almost upon him, then move into their path forcing them to hit the brakes or crash (too late to simply switch back). He will also happily move 2-3 times. Both things are not cricket.

Without wishing to be too flippant about it all there is only one person who has tried to pull off a later block than Max this year. That was Nico in Spain and it didn't turn out well for him or the overtaker.

Honestly I have seen less questionable blocking at Ellough Park on a Stag Do.....

[heebeegeetee]

antspants said:

Playing devils advocate or most likely just exposing my limited knowledge on the subject, but what's the difference between making one move from the racing line to defend your position usually by making the following driver take the long way round to complete their overtake, and making a defensive move once you see which side the driver behind is going to overtake on and blocking that move?

I'm certainly not defending the move he pulled when Raikkonen tried to overtake on the Kemmel Straight, just wondering if this is why the stewards didn't deem it worth penalising?

Martin Brundle was talking about a driver code of conduct in the commentary, and that Verstappen wasn't conforming to this. Are the actual rules not that specific other than stating a cars width should be left on the track?

I agree with much of what you are saying. I think Max was involved in too much stuff on Sunday, and in the first corner he was the author of his own misfortune by cutting the corner and running over those kerbs.

But on the Kemmel straight I think Kimi should have moved to the right a bit earlier and then as Max moved Kimi passes on the left - Max isn't allowed to move back to the left.

At the chicane at the top of Kemmel Max was moving directly to the white line on the left of the track thus running other drivers off the track. I think Kimi was right to question having to give it back and certainly should have waited until told by Charlie imo.

[spitfire-ian]

Bonefish Blues said:

I'm still somewhat nonplussed and lacking in understanding about how LH has been able to leave behind all his engine and transmission woes in one fell swoop. Can anyone point me to somthing which will help the hard of thinking?

You get a grid penalty for every extra engine you use.

Stick 3 new engines in the car in one weekend.

Take all the combined grid penalties in one race as they can't be carried over to the next.

Feel smug you now have your 3 new engines and have taken the penalties for them.

[Z3MCJez]

heebeegeetee said:

I agree with much of what you are saying. I think Max was involved in too much stuff on Sunday, and in the first corner he was the author of his own misfortune by cutting the corner and running over those kerbs.

But on the Kemmel straight I think Kimi should have moved to the right a bit earlier and then as Max moved Kimi passes on the left - Max isn't allowed to move back to the left.

At the chicane at the top of Kemmel Max was moving directly to the white line on the left of the track thus running other drivers off the track. I think Kimi was right to question having to give it back and certainly should have waited until told by Charlie imo.

The F1 website has the two laps in question now back to back as a video. On the first, Max moved gently to the right, indicating that he was closing that side off, forcing Kimi around the outside. All good. He then dived up the inside at the corner (as he is entitled to do) forcing Kimi off the track and failing to make the corner. Ferrari gave the place back (unnecessarily in my view, as Max failed to make the corner, and I'm sure that had there been contact, if Kimi had made the corner, then it would have been Max to blame. Kimi was far enough past to own the line into the corner with the whole of the Ferrari past the whole of the Red Bull (unlike, say, Nico, in 2014). Of course, if Ferrari had stayed in front we'd never have had the next lap ...

On the following lap, Max looked like he wasn't going to close the door. As Kimi moved right, Max aggressively moved across. This was unacceptable, like Nico in Barcelona. Only difference was that Kimi never got a wheel alongside, as his approach speed differential was much lower than Lewis's in Barcelona (wrong engine mode story).

The rule is that you can move once to defend. The unwritten rule is that you move early enough so that the other car can go around the other side without running in to the back of you. Nico and Max have both strayed over this line and this is what the stewards should be warning about.

Jez

[Dr Z]

Blayney said:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5ETHyX6ZMDFZzNoS...

That's the full file. I apologise for any mistakes made! Going off Rosbergs performance in the Williams and early Mercedes he seems to go forward in races. I'm still not convinced the raw data is enough to draw any real conclusions though... just interesting to have a look!

Thanks for that, it's certainly interesting and now let me convince you that he's not as bad as it looks...

The one big aspect that's missing is that all that lovely data should be placed in context of his team mate to get a real idea of his performance. So, he seems to be going backwards in the races in relation to his qualifying position in quite a few of his seasons, but is it down to the car being not inherently not as good as it was in qualifying compared to the race? Or is it purely down to driver performance? How do you determine which had a greater influence?

As I have said, it's not reliable to use stats from when a driver has a top qualifying car to measure his race performances as the only way is backwards. These are factors that cannot be easily disentangled. Put within the context of the team mate however, it will be clear who got more performance out of the car in qualifying vs the race. But then it comes down to how strong the team mate is generally considered to be, so you give more weight to good performances against a stronger team mate in a midfield car than a weak team mate in a top car or a weak team mate in a midfield car for that matter.

The ironic thing is, if you devalue Rosberg as a driver, you are devaluing Hamilton's own performances too. It's the same story as Vettel vs Webber, and it's why we talk about Senna vs Prost in such high regard as even when they had top cars they were considered to be a match for each other...even if their racing styles were very different.

I did the same as you, excluding races where one or both drivers did not finish. These were the results for Rosberg and his team mates:

-	-	-	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate
Reliability	Teammate (s)	Year	Q	Q	R	R	Q*	Q*
22%	Webber	2006	13.5	10.75	10	7.25	12.39	10.833
65%	Wurz/Nakajima	2007	9.91	15.55	9.91	10.73	9.47	15.88
78%	Nakajima	2008	12.71	15.5	10.57	12.86	11.94	15.06
76%	Nakajima	2009	8.85	12.77	7.23	12.46	8.41	12.65
79%	Schumacher	2010	7.8	9.33	6.93	8.8	7.32	9.42
68%	Schumacher	2011	7.62	11	7.31	8.54	7.53	10.32
50%	Schumacher	2012	11.1	9.2	10.6	9.5	9.45	9.05
79%	Hamilton	2013	4.26	3.53	5	5.6	4.42	3.21
74%	Hamilton	2014	1.71	4.5 (2.16)	2.71 (1.84)	1.5	1.68	3.95 (2.24)
84%	Hamilton	2015	1.75	1.38	2.22	1.81	2.05	1.58
92%	Hamilton	2016	1.5	6.25 (2.44)	2.58	2.33 (1.77)	1.54	5.85 (2.3)

Reliability is no. of races when both drivers finished divided by total no. of races expressed as percentage.

Q* is average qualifying position in all races. Q and R numbers are average when both drivers finished. In some instances I have given another number in brackets which denote the average position excluding races/qualifying when the driver had reliability issues. I've only done this for 2014-2016 as the car was dominant and some outliers had a large effect on the average number.

2006 You'd say he's been comprehensively beaten by Webber but you have to give some concessions for a rookie year and that too in a woefully unreliable car (sample size of 4 doesn't go very far). However, he's still making good progress in the races where they both finished--about the same rate as Webber too.

2007-2009 Generally seems to qualify a lot higher than his team mates and except 2007 makes good progress in the race too (relative to team mates). But since the team mates are not generally considered to be strong...you have to assume Rosberg is extracting the maximum from the car. Data is inconclusive.

2010-2012 is very interesting. At last some proper competition...but you can't be serious about what we're seeing here? Even if you concede 2010 as a 'back to school' season for Schumacher, 2011 is surprising too. Now you start to get an idea of the level Rosberg is operating at. There's an interesting swing back towards Schumacher in 2012 but it is quite clear that the car is now worser than when Schumacher joined as the average finishing positions and overall reliability gets steadily worse from 2010 to 2012.

2013 A big test now. Hamilton is immediately quicker demonstrating his superiority in single lap pace over Rosberg but the car eats it's tyres in the races, so they both go backwards...Hamilton a little more than Rosberg. So who is maximising that car's potential?

2014 Wow...what a gift from Mercedes. The car is the class of the field, and Rosberg is clearly the quicker driver over a lap but Hamilton outpaces him in the races to take the Championship.

2015 Rosberg's average qualifying position is similar to 2014 but Hamilton is now quicker over a lap and race. You'd expect this, see Vettel vs Webber 2011.

2016 He has picked up his performance in qualifying but in a rerun of 2014, is getting outraced. It is notable that there is a steady deterioration in Rosberg's race finishing positions from 2014-2016...perhaps a sign of the strain placed on him fighting for the Championship for 3 consecutive years in a losing cause.

As for how good he is as a racer, you can't be bringing in performances as in 2007-2012 in a midfield car without being a good racer...and that also includes having to overtake other drivers. Yes, he's not as celebrated as his more illustrious team mate, but that doesn't mean all those results from his years in the midfield were handed on a plate. He has had some questionable racecraft in the last three years, but I don't know if fighting for the Championship had changed his mentality or if he had the same traits in the midfield. Apart from 2012 Bahrain when he pushed Hamilton and Alonso off track on the straight, I don't know of any other instances.

[HustleRussell]

cgt2 said:

HustleRussell said:

I don't disagree overall but for memorable Rosberg drives- was it 4th in a Williams in Interlagos in the rain? We're talking years ago- 2006?

ETA: 2007

I dont remember that memorable moment

I beg your pardon, I suppose it didn't happen then.

Dr Z said:

did anybody else see a great pass?

Who was it that went around the outside of Felipe Massa in the right hander at Les Combes? One of the Force Indias? That was pretty special.

[Bonefish Blues]

Thanks for the clarification re LH's engine penalties.

Can I just say that that's the most stupid thing I've heard in a long time!

[FourWheelDrift]

HustleRussell said:

Who was it that went around the outside of Felipe Massa in the right hander at Les Combes? One of the Force Indias? That was pretty special.

Sergio Perez.


They have completely forgot about Canada 2014 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fO43-0Pooz4

[Dr Z]

FourWheelDrift said:

HustleRussell said:

Who was it that went around the outside of Felipe Massa in the right hander at Les Combes? One of the Force Indias? That was pretty special.

Sergio Perez.


They have completely forgot about Canada 2014 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fO43-0Pooz4

Oh yes, that pass was fantastic!

Fancy trying that on Max?

[Disastrous]

rsbmw said:

Disastrous said:

I think taking all the stats and points aside, Sunday suggests that it will be Hamilton's year again.

F1 has a funny habit of swinging luck and momentum around and you can nearly always pick the guy who has things going his way into the latter half of the season.

For Hamilton to take all those penalties, start at the back and still make it onto the podium has to be the writing on the wall for Rosberg.

He needed not only to win on Sunday, but for Hamilton to have a nightmare, not getting points and consequently retaking the lead and some momentum. Now Hamilton has the lead, no engine penalties, the luck and the momentum.

I'm no Hamilton fan but he's brought this one back round for himself and no mistake.

Even if LH had a DNF, a win in Monza would have given him the lead back regardless of what Rosberg had managed.

Of course, but in Rosberg's shoes, I'd rather be coming into Monza ahead on points knowing that LH needs to win.

[entropy]

antspants said:

Playing devils advocate or most likely just exposing my limited knowledge on the subject, but what's the difference between making one move from the racing line to defend your position usually by making the following driver take the long way round to complete their overtake, and making a defensive move once you see which side the driver behind is going to overtake on and blocking that move?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dypzl-BBh08t=32s

Regards to code of conduct its informal and not codified and is brought up in the drivers meeting. Moving around in the braking is another example of a manoeuvre that's frowned upon. No driver wants be caught up in a last millisecond of a change of direction from their opponent.

Edited by entropy on Tuesday 30th August 16:31

Edited by entropy on Tuesday 30th August 16:33

[Flooble]

Bonefish Blues said:

I'm still somewhat nonplussed and lacking in understanding about how LH has been able to leave behind all his engine and transmission woes in one fell swoop. Can anyone point me to somthing which will help the hard of thinking?

Hamilton had "run out" of components. He had to take a grid penalty for each new one. As you can only go to the back of the grid, he took three lots of new engine parts and went to the back of the grid. He now has three engines on the shelf ready to go.

[Blayney]

Dr Z said:

Lot's of superb work

Some very interesting things to look at there! I find 2013 -> 2014 very interesting. It seems, as you say, Lewis got to grips with the car quickly, but suffered higher deg. He clearly must have worked on this for 2014 and Rosberg became the better qualifier... but the race is where the championship is won! Very interesting stuff, thank you.

[RichB]

Bonefish Blues said:

Thanks for the clarification re LH's engine penalties. Can I just say that that's the most stupid thing I've heard in a long time!

And good luck to him. It's what the rules say you can do so he'd be foolish not to do it. I hope he goes on to win his 4th WDC

p.s. It was also the case last year when the McLarens did it but no one commented, either because they are so woeful or because it wasn't Hamilton

[Crafty_]

rdjohn said:

If Lewis had stayed at McLaren, as many suggested he should, Nico would be a triple World Champion at the end of this year. While I wholeheartedly agree that he is not as good as Lewis, it is churlish to suggest that he is bad and not deserving of the drive.

Mercedes have a very strong pairing in their drivers. Only RB might be stronger, in the longer term.

Disagree. Mercedes were coming in to do this properly. If they hadn't signed Hamilton they would have gone for Alonso / Vettel. Both capable of beating Rosberg.

Dr Z said:

-	-	-	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate
Reliability	Teammate (s)	Year	Q	Q	R	R	Q*	Q*
22%	Webber	2006	13.5	10.75	10	7.25	12.39	10.833
65%	Wurz/Nakajima	2007	9.91	15.55	9.91	10.73	9.47	15.88
78%	Nakajima	2008	12.71	15.5	10.57	12.86	11.94	15.06
76%	Nakajima	2009	8.85	12.77	7.23	12.46	8.41	12.65
79%	Schumacher	2010	7.8	9.33	6.93	8.8	7.32	9.42
68%	Schumacher	2011	7.62	11	7.31	8.54	7.53	10.32
50%	Schumacher	2012	11.1	9.2	10.6	9.5	9.45	9.05
79%	Hamilton	2013	4.26	3.53	5	5.6	4.42	3.21
74%	Hamilton	2014	1.71	4.5 (2.16)	2.71 (1.84)	1.5	1.68	3.95 (2.24)
84%	Hamilton	2015	1.75	1.38	2.22	1.81	2.05	1.58
92%	Hamilton	2016	1.5	6.25 (2.44)	2.58	2.33 (1.77)	1.54	5.85 (2.3)

Is the scenario of "finished but car crippled" taken in to account ? 92% reliability doesn't seem to reflect the Merc this year, least not in Hamilton's corner.