The Official 2016 Belgian Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

[cgt2]

I really hope the older wiser Alonso Mk.2 gets near the sharp end of the grid soon. I think we would be in for some fantastic racing.

[enjo]

With the dominance of the merc this year is anyone else surprised by the average race position? (Especially as this excludes the DNF).

[Dr Z]

Blayney said:

Dr Z said:

Lot's of superb work

Some very interesting things to look at there! I find 2013 -> 2014 very interesting. It seems, as you say, Lewis got to grips with the car quickly, but suffered higher deg. He clearly must have worked on this for 2014 and Rosberg became the better qualifier... but the race is where the championship is won! Very interesting stuff, thank you.

Thanks...it does look like a yo yoing of qualifying vs race performance between them, but Rosberg looks fairly adaptable too with his performances in 2010 vs 2011 as the tyre supplier changed, and to beat Hamilton at his own game in 2014 qualifying. But as you say it's the races where Championships are won.

Crafty_ said:

Dr Z said:

-	-	-	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate	Rosberg	Teammate
Reliability	Teammate (s)	Year	Q	Q	R	R	Q*	Q*
22%	Webber	2006	13.5	10.75	10	7.25	12.39	10.833
65%	Wurz/Nakajima	2007	9.91	15.55	9.91	10.73	9.47	15.88
78%	Nakajima	2008	12.71	15.5	10.57	12.86	11.94	15.06
76%	Nakajima	2009	8.85	12.77	7.23	12.46	8.41	12.65
79%	Schumacher	2010	7.8	9.33	6.93	8.8	7.32	9.42
68%	Schumacher	2011	7.62	11	7.31	8.54	7.53	10.32
50%	Schumacher	2012	11.1	9.2	10.6	9.5	9.45	9.05
79%	Hamilton	2013	4.26	3.53	5	5.6	4.42	3.21
74%	Hamilton	2014	1.71	4.5 (2.16)	2.71 (1.84)	1.5	1.68	3.95 (2.24)
84%	Hamilton	2015	1.75	1.38	2.22	1.81	2.05	1.58
92%	Hamilton	2016	1.5	6.25 (2.44)	2.58	2.33 (1.77)	1.54	5.85 (2.3)

Is the scenario of "finished but car crippled" taken in to account ? 92% reliability doesn't seem to reflect the Merc this year, least not in Hamilton's corner.

That number only reflects the percentage of races both drivers have finished which is all but one. Except Baku and maybe Bahrain, Hamilton had a healthy car to race with as his problems were in or before qualifying.... Baku's result skews his qualifying average a bit (1.4 vs 2.3) but that was driver inflicted so a pretty fair reflection of things. Bahrain is racing, I guess? So, overall, a 92% reliability but the numbers in brackets should indicate how the performance was when mechanical unreliability were not a factor (i.e. excluding China, Russia and Belgium).

[Z3MCJez]

Dr Z said:

That number only reflects the percentage of races both drivers have finished which is all but one. Except Baku and maybe Bahrain, Hamilton had a healthy car to race with as his problems were in or before qualifying.... Baku's result skews his qualifying average a bit (1.4 vs 2.3) but that was driver inflicted so a pretty fair reflection of things. Bahrain is racing, I guess? So, overall, a 92% reliability but the numbers in brackets should indicate how the performance was when mechanical unreliability were not a factor (i.e. excluding China, Russia and Belgium).

It's a harsh man that blames Hamilton's race problems in Baku on Hamilton. Not qualifying, which was entirely his problem, but in the race he had a badly configured ECU and had to guess his way out of it.

Anyway, I guess you really aren't going to start the Monza thread. Anyone else ...

Jez

[Z3MCJez]

EDIT: Thanks to Stevesingo!

[Dr Z]

Z3MCJez said:

Dr Z said:

That number only reflects the percentage of races both drivers have finished which is all but one. Except Baku and maybe Bahrain, Hamilton had a healthy car to race with as his problems were in or before qualifying.... Baku's result skews his qualifying average a bit (1.4 vs 2.3) but that was driver inflicted so a pretty fair reflection of things. Bahrain is racing, I guess? So, overall, a 92% reliability but the numbers in brackets should indicate how the performance was when mechanical unreliability were not a factor (i.e. excluding China, Russia and Belgium).

It's a harsh man that blames Hamilton's race problems in Baku on Hamilton. Not qualifying, which was entirely his problem, but in the race he had a badly configured ECU and had to guess his way out of it.

Anyway, I guess you really aren't going to start the Monza thread. Anyone else ...

Jez

RTFM!

Joking aside, I left his race finishing position in because it doesn't affect his average all that much nor does it detract from the overall point: he has been outpacing his teammate in the race. He finished 5th in Baku and was looking at a possible 3rd. Given, how much he's been outpacing Rosberg this year, I feel 3rd vs 5th won't make a blind bit of difference in the grand scheme of things. This is easily going to be his 4th WDC.

Ps: sorry yes I'm not getting a huge amount of free time at work these days.

[VladD]

Mark Hughes not overly impressed by Max's antics.

Motorsport magazine

[Smollet]

VladD said:

Mark Hughes not overly impressed by Max's antics.

Motorsport magazine

Not usually a fan of Hughes but he's got it spot on this time. Verstappen needs to be taught a lesson and soon before someone gets seriously hurt.

[Flooble]

Dr Z said:

RTFM!

Joking aside, I left his race finishing position in because it doesn't affect his average all that much nor does it detract from the overall point: he has been outpacing his teammate in the race. He finished 5th in Baku and was looking at a possible 3rd. Given, how much he's been outpacing Rosberg this year, I feel 3rd vs 5th won't make a blind bit of difference in the grand scheme of things. This is easily going to be his 4th WDC.

Ps: sorry yes I'm not getting a huge amount of free time at work these days.

Hamilton didn't exactly rocket forward from the back of the grid - even left behind by a McLaren. The third place is a bit of a flatter to deceive I feel - take away the various crashes and I doubt he'd have made it into the top ten. Not convinced he'll have it that easy. Especially as all the Mercedes customer teams will get uprated engines after Japan, while he'll still be on the old spec.

[HustleRussell]

Flooble said:

Hamilton didn't exactly rocket forward from the back of the grid - even left behind by a McLaren. The third place is a bit of a flatter to deceive I feel - take away the various crashes and I doubt he'd have made it into the top ten.

I think that was Hamilton cruising off the line and coasting into T1 to negate the risk of getting caught up in the usual La Source first corner bun fight. I think he'd have been well into the points even without stoppages and safety cars IMO.

[VladD]

HustleRussell said:

Flooble said:

Hamilton didn't exactly rocket forward from the back of the grid - even left behind by a McLaren. The third place is a bit of a flatter to deceive I feel - take away the various crashes and I doubt he'd have made it into the top ten.

I think that was Hamilton cruising off the line and coasting into T1 to negate the risk of getting caught up in the usual La Source first corner bun fight. I think he'd have been well into the points even without stoppages and safety cars IMO.

Hamilton actually got away better than Alonso, but let Alonso past him in T1 as he wanted to avoid a collision at all costs. The start of his season was full of turn 1 incidents, so I can understand his caution. Given that he set his car up for a straight line speed advantage, I'd assume that his race tactic was to get round lap 1 in once piece and then start to pick the other cars off on the fast bits and see where he could get to. We'll never know how far he'd have got if the race had stayed green. My pre-race prediction was 5th.

[lord summerisle]

Flooble said:

Hamilton didn't exactly rocket forward from the back of the grid - even left behind by a McLaren. The third place is a bit of a flatter to deceive I feel - take away the various crashes and I doubt he'd have made it into the top ten. Not convinced he'll have it that easy. Especially as all the Mercedes customer teams will get uprated engines after Japan, while he'll still be on the old spec.

From the back of the grid - going into such a tight corner where there is a pretty good chance of there being an incident off the start: cautious start was the way to go: dont get mixed up with a silly puncture or broken wing. From 21st he wasnt going win the race off a good start and poking his nose in - but could have lost the race.

then running at a good pace, but not taking too much out the tyres running too closely to a car in front: eak the tyres out to minimise number of stops and lower the risk of the rears blistering

[freddytin]

VladD said:

Mark Hughes not overly impressed by Max's antics.

Motorsport magazine

I wholeheartedly agree with this excellent article, and this comment ,

"His PlayStation-esque blocking techniques will end badly for someone, and sooner rather than later".

Who has the balls to dole out the black flags ?

[NJK44]

cgt2 said:

I really hope the older wiser Alonso Mk.2 gets near the sharp end of the grid soon. I think we would be in for some fantastic racing.

Unlikely. Next year is probably his last year in F1.

[anonymous-user]

freddytin said:

Who has the balls to dole out the black flags ?

Unfortunately no one it would seem.

[Dr Z]

Flooble said:

Hamilton didn't exactly rocket forward from the back of the grid - even left behind by a McLaren. The third place is a bit of a flatter to deceive I feel - take away the various crashes and I doubt he'd have made it into the top ten. Not convinced he'll have it that easy. Especially as all the Mercedes customer teams will get uprated engines after Japan, while he'll still be on the old spec.

I believe we were talking about his problems in the Baku GP...but I agree that third place in this race was due to a large slice of luck, I still think he'd have been well into points on a normal race. I would put his finishing position anywhere between 5-7.

I'm convinced that he'll be able to win this WDC comfortably because of the buffer Merc have built up on Red Bull and Ferrari drivers, his only real challenger is Rosberg and he has outraced him whenever they both finish. Now he's got more than enough PUs for the rest of the season, if anything Rosberg will be on the backfoot on mileage/performance.

The late season upgrade could help Rosberg but Hamilton will be able to run his PUs harder to match. Unless he suffers further reliability problems which could provide a twist in the tail...Hamilton has got this one in the bag I feel.

[Flooble]

Dr Z said:

I believe we were talking about his problems in the Baku GP...but I agree that third place in this race was due to a large slice of luck, I still think he'd have been well into points on a normal race. I would put his finishing position anywhere between 5-7.

I'm convinced that he'll be able to win this WDC comfortably because of the buffer Merc have built up on Red Bull and Ferrari drivers, his only real challenger is Rosberg and he has outraced him whenever they both finish. Now he's got more than enough PUs for the rest of the season, if anything Rosberg will be on the backfoot on mileage/performance.

The late season upgrade could help Rosberg but Hamilton will be able to run his PUs harder to match. Unless he suffers further reliability problems which could provide a twist in the tail...Hamilton has got this one in the bag I feel.

Sorry yes, I was talking about Belgium. I agree that only Rosberg can challenge for the title and it remains to be seen how much more power Mercedes are able to squeeze out of their design. I imagine they are well into marginal gains by now and possibly some of the late season improvements can be offset in other ways. E.g. if the Japan update improves fuel economy, allowing Rosberg to carry less fuel and thus run faster, Hamilton could offset that by also carrying less fuel, ensuring he gets ahead, and then blocking Rosberg while in fuel-saving mode. I think it's going to be fascinating to watch whether the pendulum continues to swing back and forth. Particularly as Belgium is the first race where a Mercedes was able to get away from pole cleanly. If their clutch-start issues reoccur and things get scrappy everything could turnabout again, depending on who gets unlucky in the melee.

[Derek Smith]

lord summerisle said:

Flooble said:

Hamilton didn't exactly rocket forward from the back of the grid - even left behind by a McLaren. The third place is a bit of a flatter to deceive I feel - take away the various crashes and I doubt he'd have made it into the top ten. Not convinced he'll have it that easy. Especially as all the Mercedes customer teams will get uprated engines after Japan, while he'll still be on the old spec.

From the back of the grid - going into such a tight corner where there is a pretty good chance of there being an incident off the start: cautious start was the way to go: dont get mixed up with a silly puncture or broken wing. From 21st he wasnt going win the race off a good start and poking his nose in - but could have lost the race.

then running at a good pace, but not taking too much out the tyres running too closely to a car in front: eak the tyres out to minimise number of stops and lower the risk of the rears blistering

If you look at the recorded highlights, still available on Ch4 I think, you'll see that he allowed Alonso through at La Source. He had the same sort of start as FA and the cars in front were rather slower. He wasn't boxed in as such but Alonso's line baulked him. He then followed him at a distance. As you say, probably husbanding tyres. I think the Renault crash might have even cost him a place. He was fifth at the time and was on mediums. Everyone in front might well have had a stop more than him. But the red flag meant everyone changed tyres. He'd have never made first of course, but I think second was on.

But then as Murray Walker always said, F1 spelt backwards is enof (already). Whatever, he did what he had to do. He had luck on his side, and possibly some of it was bad. Had the Ferraris and RBs not decided to crash, he might have driven a different race.

[NRS]

Derek Smith said:

lord summerisle said:

Flooble said:

Hamilton didn't exactly rocket forward from the back of the grid - even left behind by a McLaren. The third place is a bit of a flatter to deceive I feel - take away the various crashes and I doubt he'd have made it into the top ten. Not convinced he'll have it that easy. Especially as all the Mercedes customer teams will get uprated engines after Japan, while he'll still be on the old spec.

From the back of the grid - going into such a tight corner where there is a pretty good chance of there being an incident off the start: cautious start was the way to go: dont get mixed up with a silly puncture or broken wing. From 21st he wasnt going win the race off a good start and poking his nose in - but could have lost the race.

then running at a good pace, but not taking too much out the tyres running too closely to a car in front: eak the tyres out to minimise number of stops and lower the risk of the rears blistering

If you look at the recorded highlights, still available on Ch4 I think, you'll see that he allowed Alonso through at La Source. He had the same sort of start as FA and the cars in front were rather slower. He wasn't boxed in as such but Alonso's line baulked him. He then followed him at a distance. As you say, probably husbanding tyres. I think the Renault crash might have even cost him a place. He was fifth at the time and was on mediums. Everyone in front might well have had a stop more than him. But the red flag meant everyone changed tyres. He'd have never made first of course, but I think second was on.

But then as Murray Walker always said, F1 spelt backwards is enof (already). Whatever, he did what he had to do. He had luck on his side, and possibly some of it was bad. Had the Ferraris and RBs not decided to crash, he might have driven a different race.

I have to agree. This was not the "Senna" style Hamilton, or the Hamilton of younger years, but rather a more mature Hamilton doing a Prost. Too many points lost from trying to gain too many positions too quickly meant he was being conservative and maximising points. If he was behind in the championship or there wasn't the first corner incident he might have been pushing more, but he seems confident enough in his own driving and lead in the Championship that he is now aiming at regularly scoring points rather than going all or nothing. I think after all the gains he made recently he is even more confident than normal that if he had lose the lead of the Championship that he would still regain it later anyway.

[VolvoT5]

garyhun said:

freddytin said:

Who has the balls to dole out the black flags ?

Unfortunately no one it would seem.

Max has too much 'box office' appeal and so nothing will be done about his antics until he causes a Grosjean at Spa style pile up or he upsets one of the other drivers so much that they either deliberately ram him off the track or smack him in the chops post race. But by that point it could be too late.

The disappointing thing is that just like Schumacher he has so much talent he doesn't need to pull dirty tricks to get his own way most of the time, but he still chooses to. On the rare occasion he is beaten into a corner he should learn when is time to give it up. I don't care what the rules say there is a certain unwritten code of conduct in that the drivers should not break.... for safety and good sportsmanship purposes.

Edited by VolvoT5 on Wednesday 31st August 17:24