The Official 2016 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Thread **Spoilers**

[Flooble]

Dr Z said:

I worked it out that Hamilton has lost around 50 points to mechanical reliability and around 30 points to bad starts. He also got gifted around 13 points due to team orders and mechanical misfortune/bad starts of teammate. Don't have the time to construct a post detailing the rationale for it, but it's an interesting point that was made above that, if Hamilton had made equal good starts as his teammate, he'd likely be in a better position going into this last race. Who was it that said F1 is If spelled backwards?

I would like to see Toto's face if Rosberg's engine blows up in this race and Hamilton takes the Championship. /Schadenfreude

If you consider that each time he messed up, he gifted Rosberg points (as otherwise Rosberg would have finished 2nd or whatever) I make it:

Baku: Gifted 7, Lost 15
Japan: Gifted 7, Lost 10
Italy: Gifted 7, Lost 7
Singapore: Gifted 7, Lost 10

So, excluding all the races where he had an issue with the car of any description (unless you really stretch it to include the Baku engine mode issue, but that was directly a result of his qualifying crash) then I make it that Hamilton could have 70 points more over Rosberg, i.e. had he driven flawlessly then he'd currently be the WDC with a 58 point margin despite the engine issues. [Granted Rosberg may have fought harder in the last few races, but the point stands that Hamilton has given up the above points - in fact there's also Australia and Malaysia now I think about it, they were so long ago I had forgotten that they were also "bad start" races for Hamilton].

[swisstoni]

For the neutrals I suppose the best start would NR to take the lead with a very motivated LH in pursuit with not a lot to lose.

[S0 What]

768 said:

Is Hamilton really just going to go for the win without even a little bit of fun and games? Brake test into turn 1?

A brake test would cause Lesis more issues than Nico, a front wing loss is a 12 second change whereas a rear wing loss is race over so where is the pluss side in that for Lewis ?
Assuming that is Lewis is even in front at turn one ?

[HustleRussell]

S0 What said:

768 said:

Is Hamilton really just going to go for the win without even a little bit of fun and games? Brake test into turn 1?

A brake test would cause Lesis more issues than Nico

Not if Nico didn't hit him

[RB Will]

On the subject of what ifs. It would solidly be Rosbergs Championship if it were not for Hamiltons iffy driving.

I figure Rosberg is out approx 54 points due to Hamilton crashing into him and Playstationing the corner in Mexico.

Hamilton should be on approx 359 points or less and Rosberg at 422 going into this race

Which makes that a far bigger contributor to this championship than any reliability or poor starts!

I shall now retire to my super impenetrable nuclear bunker on the moon where I just might be safe.

[Dr Z]

Hungrymc said:

Interesting data. What are Nicos lost points due to reliability?

I think, 10 points max. He's had a front row start in all but one race. In my alternate universe, these would be their finishing positions taking out mechanical reliability (highlighted the ones that changed and actual position in brackets):

Race	Nico	Lewis
Australian GP	1	2
Bahrain GP	1	3
Chinese GP	1	2(7)
Russian GP	1	2
Spanish GP	-	-
Monaco GP	7	2(1)
Canadian GP	5	1
European GP	1	3(5)
Austrian GP	2(4)	1
British GP	2(3)	1
Hungarian GP	2	1
German GP	4	1
Belgian GP	1	2(3)
Italian GP	1	2
Singapore GP	1	3
Malaysian GP	4(3)	1(DNF)
Japanese GP	1	3
Total Points	319	318

...This would mean they both go into the final four races with a single point separating them. Then it's anyone's guess how the Championship would go as the dynamics changes completely. Feel free to disagree with how I've awarded the positions, but it's how I see it.

Starts have also played an important part, as Lewis has failed to convert quite a few pole positions (Australia, Bahrain, Spain until the crash, Canada until Ferrari dropped the ball and Italy). If he loses the Championship and puts it all down to reliability, it will be understandable as no racer would want to admit that he didn't do a good enough job out of ego but, I definitely see the starts as him not maximising his side of performance. Since the shocker in Japan, he's had better and more consistent starts and I read somewhere that he was working hard in the simulator to understand the issue. So, it's not totally outside of his domain to make a difference there.

[KevinCamaroSS]

RB Will said:

On the subject of what ifs. It would solidly be Rosbergs Championship if it were not for Hamiltons iffy driving.

I figure Rosberg is out approx 54 points due to Hamilton crashing into him and Playstationing the corner in Mexico.

Hamilton should be on approx 359 points or less and Rosberg at 422 going into this race

Which makes that a far bigger contributor to this championship than any reliability or poor starts!

I shall now retire to my super impenetrable nuclear bunker on the moon where I just might be safe.

Oh look another Hamilton hater!

Not sure what 'crashing into him' you are talking about? If you are talking about when they crashed out together then that is, at best, 50/50 since Rosberg did not leave the mandatory car width. Mexico, was Hamilton penalised? No, because he did nothing that was outside the rules. Forcing a following car wide is fine as long as you are in front. T-boning as is Rosberg's style is not OK. I cannot remember the race, but Rosberg was lucky not to get a penalty where he made no attempt to turn the corner and forced Hamilton off the track, then tried to keep him off the track when Hamilton rejoined.

Rosberg had one occasion where reliability made a difference to his race, he lost one place. Let's consider Malaysia, Rosberg gained one place (3 points) when Hamilton's engine broke. Hamilton lost 25 points. So, that one race made a 28 point difference. So, in that one race you could say Rosberg regained the points he lost due to his own reliability issue.

[Dusty964]

Is it possible to be a fan of one without hating the other?
It seems mostly not on this- and most other threads.

It does seem rather odd that if someone wants Rosberg to win, there are a number of following posts stating that its all down to reliability.
Granted, they have taken their toll, but to be 1st, 2nd, 3rd....whatever position and retire doesn't mean that they would automatically have finished in the position that they retired from- crash, puncture, damage coĺliding with back markers etc.

Of course, each has a favourite, but surely, grown men (and armchair experts) talking about who theoretically deserves what, and how one is not worthy yet the other is practically a god (each interchangeable so as not to appear biased) is nothing new for the championship nor the sport.
It makes you wonder why you give up so much time to watch the 'sport' that you are so enthralled by if only to moan, deride and offer opinion on- valid or indeed, wildly wide of the mark.

For me- Abu Dhabi will be a day out in the sun, a few laughs and plenty of beers. Hamilton wins= well deserved.
Rosberg wins= equally well deserved.
I get to see and hear some F1 cars up close, and treat it as the spectacle it is.

[HustleRussell]

Dusty964 said:

Is it possible to be a fan of one without hating the other?

and indeed is it possible to be a fan of neither and hater of neither?

I think if we could have signatures here mine would carry words to that effect... Of course every time I criticise or discuss the flaws of either driver I'm immediately considered a 'hater' or 'fanboi' one way or the other by somebody of a less mature disposition. Ho hum, such is the Pistonheads F1 section. Both drivers are signed to Mercedes until 2018 so it could well continue, at least until the Red Bull emerges as the fastest car again... At which point it'll be rinse and repeat with Riccardo and Verstappen

[GCH]

thatsprettyshady said:

thegreenhell said:

If he comes back to win it due to a Rosberg reliability issue in the last race then that is how it will be remembered. The headlines will all be about Rosberg leading for most of the year but being cruelly robbed in the last round, gifting the title to Hamilton. The circumstances as to why Hamilton was behind going into the race will be swept aside by all but the most rabid fans. People have short memories, and the tabloids and Hollywood love a good headline. Balance, fairness and a reasoned backstory will be overlooked by the majority.

[Dr Z]

Flooble said:

Dr Z said:

I worked it out that Hamilton has lost around 50 points to mechanical reliability and around 30 points to bad starts. He also got gifted around 13 points due to team orders and mechanical misfortune/bad starts of teammate. Don't have the time to construct a post detailing the rationale for it, but it's an interesting point that was made above that, if Hamilton had made equal good starts as his teammate, he'd likely be in a better position going into this last race. Who was it that said F1 is If spelled backwards?

If you consider that each time he messed up, he gifted Rosberg points (as otherwise Rosberg would have finished 2nd or whatever) I make it:

Baku: Gifted 7, Lost 15
Japan: Gifted 7, Lost 10
Italy: Gifted 7, Lost 7
Singapore: Gifted 7, Lost 10

So, excluding all the races where he had an issue with the car of any description (unless you really stretch it to include the Baku engine mode issue, but that was directly a result of his qualifying crash) then I make it that Hamilton could have 70 points more over Rosberg, i.e. had he driven flawlessly then he'd currently be the WDC with a 58 point margin despite the engine issues. [Granted Rosberg may have fought harder in the last few races, but the point stands that Hamilton has given up the above points - in fact there's also Australia and Malaysia now I think about it, they were so long ago I had forgotten that they were also "bad start" races for Hamilton].

This is where all these scenarios fail, as pointed out by another poster. It was quite clear Rosberg was driving for the Championship in the last two races at least, despite what he says about 'going for the win'...when he owned the restart after the second red flag in Brazil as if he was the race leader, allowing Hamilton to sprint away, this was a man who has the Championship firmly on his mind. All the stuff about 'going for the win' is simply a way of psyching himself up. Hamilton was doing the same last year in the second half when the roles were reversed, but many would have seen it as Rosberg having the upper hand.

I guess, this is what happens when you've got two guys from the same team in the WDC fight where they can afford to do this. If there was another driver or two from other teams also in this, they'd have to maximise themselves every weekend and mistakes would have worser consequences. I guess what I'm trying to say is, it's all well and good crying about reliability gifting the Championship to the other guy, but it is a direct consequence of being in the best car where there was no consistent challenge from another team/car/driver combination.

[S0 What]

Dusty964 said:

Is it possible to be a fan of one without hating the other?
It seems mostly not on this- and most other threads.

It does seem rather odd that if someone wants Rosberg to win, there are a number of following posts stating that its all down to reliability.
Granted, they have taken their toll, but to be 1st, 2nd, 3rd....whatever position and retire doesn't mean that they would automatically have finished in the position that they retired from- crash, puncture, damage co?liding with back markers etc.

Of course, each has a favourite, but surely, grown men (and armchair experts) talking about who theoretically deserves what, and how one is not worthy yet the other is practically a god (each interchangeable so as not to appear biased) is nothing new for the championship nor the sport.
It makes you wonder why you give up so much time to watch the 'sport' that you are so enthralled by if only to moan, deride and offer opinion on- valid or indeed, wildly wide of the mark.

For me- Abu Dhabi will be a day out in the sun, a few laughs and plenty of beers. Hamilton wins= well deserved.
Rosberg wins= equally well deserved.
I get to see and hear some F1 cars up close, and treat it as the spectacle it is.

I think i manage it ? as do "a few others on here" i follow Lewis (rather than idolise him or am a "fan") but have said on more than one occasion Nico deserves this championship if he wins.
It's the sport i love not the drivers, them i just follow, they come and go the sport stays (in many guises i feely admit).
Already got the snacks in ready for the "show", beers under the bed, in the fridge would just be too tempting

[DeltonaS]

Dr Z said:

I worked it out that Hamilton has lost around 50 points to mechanical reliability and around 30 points to bad starts. He also got gifted around 13 points due to team orders and mechanical misfortune/bad starts of teammate. Don't have the time to construct a post detailing the rationale for it, but it's an interesting point that was made above that, if Hamilton had made equal good starts as his teammate, he'd likely be in a better position going into this last race. Who was it that said F1 is If spelled backwards?

I would like to see Toto's face if Rosberg's engine blows up in this race and Hamilton takes the Championship. /Schadenfreude

So starts, good or bad, aren't part of F1, racing ?

Crashing into others during race starts isn't either ? not being used to starts in midfield/traffic isn't part of F1 anymore ?

Rosberg didn't have mechanical issues ?

How was Hamilton actually favored by Race control these past seasons ? (looking at just 2016; Monaco and Mexico spring to mind)

Looking at these past three years, all poles and wins from both Rosberg and Hamilton, looking at the complete dominance of Mercedes.

A Rosberg championship in Abu Dhabi is completely deserved. 2-1 is a fair display of the performances of both drivers.

Learn to live with it.

[Hungrymc]

I think you miss understood. DrZ will (I think) be very happy with a Nico win.
And most (but not all) posters, even Lewis followers / supporters, are echoing the sentiment that Nico has done a good job this year. And it might be frustrating that Lewis has had so many reliability issues, but st happens, and well done Nico for making the most of it.

[VolvoT5]

I would like to see Rosberg win but my instinct is Hamilton will take the championship. I suspect that Rosberg will suffer some kind of reliability issue or some other major screw up outside of his control... watch out for Verstappen or Vettel doing some kind of crazy move at the start of the race.

All the talk of reliability is getting a bit tedious now, even Andrew Benson is pushing this agenda on the BBC. Ultimately whoever wins has done it fair and square. People like to think it is all down to skill but luck has always played a part in F1, or any sport for that matter. Rosberg has had a couple of stand out drives this year as has Hamilton, but arguably Hamilton has made more unforced errors in addition to the bad luck.

I just hope there is no 3rd party involved in deciding the championship... including silly penalties from the stewards.

I do wonder if Rosberg will come to regret not just going after the wins a bit harder in the last couple of races.

Edited by VolvoT5 on Friday 18th November 07:49

[Dr Z]

DeltonaS said:

So starts, good or bad, aren't part of F1, racing ?

Crashing into others during race starts isn't either ? not being used to starts in midfield/traffic isn't part of F1 anymore ?

Rosberg didn't have mechanical issues ?

How was Hamilton actually favored by Race control these past seasons ? (looking at just 2016; Monaco and Mexico spring to mind)

Looking at these past three years, all poles and wins from both Rosberg and Hamilton, looking at the complete dominance of Mercedes.

A Rosberg championship in Abu Dhabi is completely deserved. 2-1 is a fair display of the performances of both drivers.

Learn to live with it.

I will be happy with Rosberg being the WDC this year. I was agreeing with the point that Hamilton hasn't maximised his performance too, and so it would be unfair to say that reliability alone has decided the Championship. It is the price you pay for sitting in the best car for 3 years and having little competition from other teams although, the competition has been closer this year than the last two.

[Flooble]

I think it's guaranteed to be a Rosberg championship - for the last 3 races we've been expecting "something" third party to happen which would erode his margin by more than the 7 points-per-race nibbling that could be done with 1-2s. But it hasn't happened, even in the wet in Brazil, so there's no real reason to expect it to in the final race of the season on a track which suits the Mercedes more than their only competitors.

[suffolk009]

^^^ Except that Hamilton has nothing to gain by driving to a first place with Rosberg cruising home in second. I expect shenanigans.

[48Valves]

suffolk009 said:

^^^ Except that Hamilton has nothing to gain by driving to a first place with Rosberg cruising home in second. I expect shenanigans.

Any shenanigans from Lewis would need to come after the final round of pit stops to cover off the chance of the team taking too long to change a tyre.

This race will either be a dull merc 1 - 2 or something will happen and the fall out will be enormous.

[tyranical]

Flooble said:

If you consider that each time he messed up, he gifted Rosberg points (as otherwise Rosberg would have finished 2nd or whatever) I make it:

Baku: Gifted 7, Lost 15
Japan: Gifted 7, Lost 10
Italy: Gifted 7, Lost 7
Singapore: Gifted 7, Lost 10

So, excluding all the races where he had an issue with the car of any description (unless you really stretch it to include the Baku engine mode issue, but that was directly a result of his qualifying crash) then I make it that Hamilton could have 70 points more over Rosberg, i.e. had he driven flawlessly then he'd currently be the WDC with a 58 point margin despite the engine issues. [Granted Rosberg may have fought harder in the last few races, but the point stands that Hamilton has given up the above points - in fact there's also Australia and Malaysia now I think about it, they were so long ago I had forgotten that they were also "bad start" races for Hamilton].

The most interesting part of all this is it proves the following.

So many people on here, across the internet, the world and the media have raved about how well Rosberg has driven this year and you have to give it to him apart from some questionable overtakes he has done what he has needed to do more often than not and has definitely had his best season of the past 3 years.

Equally, it is fair to say that Lewis has had a poor season by his own standards with quite a few unforced errors as you describe above - They kept blaming the clutch but I never bought it, especially as the "fix" to it has been a change in the clutch paddles that allows Hamilton to better feel what is going on, so it was the driver all along basically.

If you take the current points situation and remove things beyond the drivers control (Reliability issues), Hamilton would still be ahead by quite a margin.

That pretty much proves that a Rosberg at his very best that everyone has raved about is still not as good as a poor Hamilton.

I firmly believe that the gap in the driver performance levels is far bigger than these seasons have shown, if Rosberg had other people to contend with apart from Lewis I think he'd get shown up alot more.

That being said, if he wins he deserves it, performance is only 1 factor and noone has ever won a championship without a little luck, granted Rosberg has had more than his fair share this season.