Where Will Williams Finish in 2017

[Piginapoke]

I love Williams F1, have done for years.

I can never recall such a poor a poor driver pairing as Massa and Stroll. 5th at best, but will lose sponsors/personnel throughout the year.

[tommunster10]

Mr_Thyroid said:

Massa will score approximately 25% fewer points than Bottas would have (based on the average deficit over the last three years).

Thinking quickly, so forgive me if i'm wrong, but wouldn't Bottas of taken some of those ponts, so assuming Massa is beating Stroll he should be getting most of the teams points?

Also we don't yet know what Merc are giving Williams extra. Stroll last year was hanging out with 5 of Mercs top technicians learning about the car, the Merc engine in the Williams will be of a good standard, not factory spec but closer.
If they get a close spec Merc engine to the factory who knows what could happen.
Betting on F1 is pointless, but if I did i'd take that into account.

In MotoGP they are very open about factory bikes having better engines/parts than the satellite bikes, in F1 can't be much different.
I'm sure in 2013 when Williams were close to Merc that they had a deal with Merc F1 to not try to pass the Mercs off the line.

Edited by tommunster10 on Thursday 19th January 11:16

[pits]

Hopefully first, and Massa wins the championship and when he does he stands up on Lewis' car,, gets his knob out and windmills it around in front of Hamilton, but realistically I reckon 4-6

[Mr_Thyroid]

tommunster10 said:

Mr_Thyroid said:

Massa will score approximately 25% fewer points than Bottas would have (based on the average deficit over the last three years).

Thinking quickly, so forgive me if i'm wrong, but wouldn't Bottas of taken some of those ponts, so assuming Massa is beating Stroll he should be getting most of the teams points?

Edited by tommunster10 on Thursday 19th January 11:16

Interesting point.

In 2014 Massa scored 28% fewer points - the team finished 3rd so on average I guess they were racing for 5th and 6th. The points gap between those positions is 20% so Massa falls outside of this margin.

In 2015 Massa scored 11% fewer points - the team was 3rd again so by the above reasoning this margin is allowable - but there is the caveat that Bottas injured his back at the first race and may have underperformed as a result.

In 2016 Massa scored 38% fewer points but the team only finished fifth so it could be argued that on average they were racing for 9th and 10th - the gap between the points for these positions is 10% so Massa is a long way behind this bench mark.

I'm not a statistician - I'm making this up as I go along.

[steve-5snwi]

Will SAGA be sponsoring Williams this year ? It would make more sense to bring Mansell back. I'll go for 7th this year.

[Norfolkit]

They'll beat Sauber and Haas, probably Toro Rosso and possibly McLaren and/or Renault, 5th at best but probably lower.

[London424]

tommunster10 said:

Mr_Thyroid said:

Massa will score approximately 25% fewer points than Bottas would have (based on the average deficit over the last three years).

Thinking quickly, so forgive me if i'm wrong, but wouldn't Bottas of taken some of those ponts, so assuming Massa is beating Stroll he should be getting most of the teams points?

Also we don't yet know what Merc are giving Williams extra. Stroll last year was hanging out with 5 of Mercs top technicians learning about the car, the Merc engine in the Williams will be of a good standard, not factory spec but closer.
If they get a close spec Merc engine to the factory who knows what could happen.
Betting on F1 is pointless, but if I did i'd take that into account.

In MotoGP they are very open about factory bikes having better engines/parts than the satellite bikes, in F1 can't be much different.
I'm sure in 2013 when Williams were close to Merc that they had a deal with Merc F1 to not try to pass the Mercs off the line.

Edited by tommunster10 on Thursday 19th January 11:16

All Merc engines are the same. The only thing that has been different is when upgrades happen and are made available.

[FourWheelDrift]

Await the Alan Partridge commentary.

"Stroll on!" - Suprise Suprise, he's beaten Massa in qualifying
"going for a stroll" - When the pitlane reporter walks with Lance before the race
"Stroll around" - Lance visits local attractions near the track for a TV piece.
"Rock n stroll" - I wonder what he has playing on his headphones pre-race
"Take a stroll down memory lane" - for past Williams season clips
"They see me strolling, they hating" - first point.

[tommunster10]

London424 said:

tommunster10 said:

Mr_Thyroid said:

Massa will score approximately 25% fewer points than Bottas would have (based on the average deficit over the last three years).

Thinking quickly, so forgive me if i'm wrong, but wouldn't Bottas of taken some of those ponts, so assuming Massa is beating Stroll he should be getting most of the teams points?

Also we don't yet know what Merc are giving Williams extra. Stroll last year was hanging out with 5 of Mercs top technicians learning about the car, the Merc engine in the Williams will be of a good standard, not factory spec but closer.
If they get a close spec Merc engine to the factory who knows what could happen.
Betting on F1 is pointless, but if I did i'd take that into account.

In MotoGP they are very open about factory bikes having better engines/parts than the satellite bikes, in F1 can't be much different.
I'm sure in 2013 when Williams were close to Merc that they had a deal with Merc F1 to not try to pass the Mercs off the line.

Edited by tommunster10 on Thursday 19th January 11:16

All Merc engines are the same. The only thing that has been different is when upgrades happen and are made available.

Forgive me but that does mean at times the engines are not the same spec. So if Williams get the upgrades etc first then by some sort of logic they have an advantage closer to the one Merc enjoy.

[KevinCamaroSS]

London424 said:

All Merc engines are the same. The only thing that has been different is when upgrades happen and are made available.

The hardware is the same, but, what about the software?

[London424]

tommunster10 said:

London424 said:

tommunster10 said:

Mr_Thyroid said:

Massa will score approximately 25% fewer points than Bottas would have (based on the average deficit over the last three years).

Thinking quickly, so forgive me if i'm wrong, but wouldn't Bottas of taken some of those ponts, so assuming Massa is beating Stroll he should be getting most of the teams points?

Also we don't yet know what Merc are giving Williams extra. Stroll last year was hanging out with 5 of Mercs top technicians learning about the car, the Merc engine in the Williams will be of a good standard, not factory spec but closer.
If they get a close spec Merc engine to the factory who knows what could happen.
Betting on F1 is pointless, but if I did i'd take that into account.

In MotoGP they are very open about factory bikes having better engines/parts than the satellite bikes, in F1 can't be much different.
I'm sure in 2013 when Williams were close to Merc that they had a deal with Merc F1 to not try to pass the Mercs off the line.

Edited by tommunster10 on Thursday 19th January 11:16

All Merc engines are the same. The only thing that has been different is when upgrades happen and are made available.

Forgive me but that does mean at times the engines are not the same spec. So if Williams get the upgrades etc first then by some sort of logic they have an advantage closer to the one Merc enjoy.

The only time they haven't had the same was for a race or two when Merc tried something experimental (if I remember correctly). It's a requirement of the regs that all customers get the same as the factory teams.

[London424]

KevinCamaroSS said:

London424 said:

All Merc engines are the same. The only thing that has been different is when upgrades happen and are made available.

The hardware is the same, but, what about the software?

https://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2016/04/insight-how-mercedes-supplies-its-customer-formula-1-teams-with-engines/

[thegreenhell]

London424 said:

It's a requirement of the regs that all customers get the same as the factory teams.

They may start out the same, but once the season is underway it also depends on each individual driver's engine replacement schedule. One could have just taken a new engine, then at the next race Mercedes make a new specification available, but the driver can't use it until he next needs a new engine, which could be three or four races away. So during that time he'll be a spec iteration behind others, unless they think it's worth taking a penalty to get the newer spec sooner.

The works team will obviously try to time the spec upgrades with their scheduled engine changes, but the customer teams have to make do with however it works out.

Edited by thegreenhell on Friday 20th January 14:47

[London424]

thegreenhell said:

London424 said:

It's a requirement of the regs that all customers get the same as the factory teams.

They may start out the same, but once the season is underway it also depends on each individual driver's engine replacement schedule. One could have just taken a new engine, then at the next race Mercedes make a new specification available, but the driver can't use it until he next needs a new engine, which could be three or four races away. So during that time he'll be a spec iteration behind others, unless they think it's worth taking a penalty to get the newer spec sooner.

The works team will obviously try to time the spec upgrades with their scheduled engine changes, but the customer teams have to make do with however it works out.

Edited by thegreenhell on Friday 20th January 14:47

It's all in the article I posted above. In almost every circumstance when Merc have an upgrade, every team gets it.

As you say, if they don't want to, or can't take it then it's down to them. But last season the only team that needed more engines out of sync with the release cycle were funnily enough Merc themselves with Lewis.

[FourWheelDrift]

It also says "How the engine is operated is governed by something called the ‘phase document’ which regulates how hard each specification of engine can be run."

And "How the engine is run is defined by what we call the phase document. This dictates how many laps can be done in each engine mode and defines the safe operating limits."

Customers engines looked after by Mercedes employed engineers in the team could still be run at a lower spec, different modes or lower safety limits than the factory team engines. Williams and Force India used far fewer engines and power unit components compared to the factory Mercedes in 2016.

[London424]

FourWheelDrift said:

It also says "How the engine is operated is governed by something called the ‘phase document’ which regulates how hard each specification of engine can be run."

And "How the engine is run is defined by what we call the phase document. This dictates how many laps can be done in each engine mode and defines the safe operating limits."

Customers engines looked after by Mercedes employed engineers in the team could still be run at a lower spec, different modes or lower safety limits than the factory team engines. Williams and Force India used far fewer engines and power unit components compared to the factory Mercedes in 2016.

Yes, but all Merc engines are the same! They all have the same spec, they all have the same software, they all have the same strengths and weaknesses. When the teams are playing around with engine modes then by definition they are at different specs during a race.

They all get the same number of laps to use for each of the engine modes.

[tommunster10]

London424 said:

FourWheelDrift said:

It also says "How the engine is operated is governed by something called the ‘phase document’ which regulates how hard each specification of engine can be run."

And "How the engine is run is defined by what we call the phase document. This dictates how many laps can be done in each engine mode and defines the safe operating limits."

Customers engines looked after by Mercedes employed engineers in the team could still be run at a lower spec, different modes or lower safety limits than the factory team engines. Williams and Force India used far fewer engines and power unit components compared to the factory Mercedes in 2016.

Yes, but all Merc engines are the same! They all have the same spec, they all have the same software, they all have the same strengths and weaknesses. When the teams are playing around with engine modes then by definition they are at different specs during a race.

They all get the same number of laps to use for each of the engine modes.

The Merc team have options available to them that the satellite teams don't. Yes they may say it's all exactly the same but we all know this is nonsense. Merc have a means to extract more from their engines, it also explains the issues they have had whilst pushing the envelope and how they could run the engines lower towards later part of 2016 after Lewis's engine fault.
My point is if Williams have an advantage of a a stronger customer package from Merc then they could well be at the sharp end again like they were in 2013.
20 mil of Stroll's Daddys slush fund says "yes".

Edited by tommunster10 on Friday 20th January 17:47

[London424]

tommunster10 said:

London424 said:

FourWheelDrift said:

It also says "How the engine is operated is governed by something called the ‘phase document’ which regulates how hard each specification of engine can be run."

And "How the engine is run is defined by what we call the phase document. This dictates how many laps can be done in each engine mode and defines the safe operating limits."

Customers engines looked after by Mercedes employed engineers in the team could still be run at a lower spec, different modes or lower safety limits than the factory team engines. Williams and Force India used far fewer engines and power unit components compared to the factory Mercedes in 2016.

Yes, but all Merc engines are the same! They all have the same spec, they all have the same software, they all have the same strengths and weaknesses. When the teams are playing around with engine modes then by definition they are at different specs during a race.

They all get the same number of laps to use for each of the engine modes.

The Merc team have options available to them that the satellite teams don't. Yes they may say it's all exactly the same but we all know this is nonsense. Merc have a means to extract more from their engines, it also explains the issues they have had whilst pushing the envelope and how they could run the engines lower towards later part of 2016 after Lewis's engine fault.
My point is if Williams have an advantage of a a stronger customer package from Merc then they could well be at the sharp end again like they were in 2013.
20 mil of Stroll's Daddys slush fund says "yes".

Edited by tommunster10 on Friday 20th January 17:47

Can you link to something so I can read up on this then?

I think you might need to take off the tinfoil hat now.

[PhillipM]

If Williams were looking like any chance of being up at the pointy end this year, Bottas wouldn't be packing his bags.

[PhillipM]

London424 said:

Yes, but all Merc engines are the same! They all have the same spec, they all have the same software, they all have the same strengths and weaknesses. When the teams are playing around with engine modes then by definition they are at different specs during a race.

They all get the same number of laps to use for each of the engine modes.

They might have the same software/UI but they don't get access to the firmware and backends, that's what pissed Mclaren off.