Help me with this years bad bet..
Discussion
Every year, about this time, I make my one visit to the bookies. Every year I make a calculated bet based on my superior knowledge of F1 and my ability to spot things in cars/drivers that are so subtle I will get staggering odds and clean up.
Every year, by race 5, it is fairly clear I am going to lose horribly and I actually know nothing (thanks Ricciardo for 2018).
If anyone has a wildcard tip please share.
Or I may just slap £25 on Hamilton...............(watch him rejoin Mclaren before March now).
Every year, by race 5, it is fairly clear I am going to lose horribly and I actually know nothing (thanks Ricciardo for 2018).
If anyone has a wildcard tip please share.
Or I may just slap £25 on Hamilton...............(watch him rejoin Mclaren before March now).
Don't bet - it's a mug's game.
The bookies set odds which are far less generous than the chance of the thing happening. In the long run, the punter always loses. The law of probability doesn't have a kind heart.
This is how it's always been. These days it's far worse than ever because the bookies have huge amounts of data to help them set their odds. Ordinary punters can't possibly compete.
If you must waste your £25 buy some premium bonds.
The bookies set odds which are far less generous than the chance of the thing happening. In the long run, the punter always loses. The law of probability doesn't have a kind heart.
This is how it's always been. These days it's far worse than ever because the bookies have huge amounts of data to help them set their odds. Ordinary punters can't possibly compete.
If you must waste your £25 buy some premium bonds.
I cannot argue with your logic but i just can't bring myself to bet on a red car after years of shouting boo at the telly every time they are on the podium.
Also I don't want to jinx his career so early on.
I would love to see Vetel get his arse handed to him by a new team mate again though.
Also I don't want to jinx his career so early on.
I would love to see Vetel get his arse handed to him by a new team mate again though.
Problem is the lack of bets. Things like winning driver and constructor are so sewn up it's impossible to make money. McLaren and Williams are the two teams that had fundamental flaws with their cars so they would be the ones that could change position drastically compared to last season so I'd be looking for a bet that involved their points for the season or finishing position in the championship. Liquidity on Betfair markets (where you'll get the best odds generally) is another problem as not many people bet on F1.
F1 betting is rubbish, not like football where on the day anything can happen (or you can get a good pick on an accumulator). Before Melbourne 2014 it was 6/1 odds on something like 6 or 7 cars failing to finish. I nearly chucked 20 quid on but bottled it. I think only 12/13 cars finished in the end. 
FeelingLucky said:
There must be a fair outside chance of Red Bull finishing way down the order next year?
Battle for third will be interesting. I also wonder if LeClerc will steal points from Vettel resulting in them losing the WDC like the old Alonso/Lewis partnership which let Kimi win.What is the most equal due Ferrari everi fielded? Alesi/Berger?
SteBrown91 said:
F1 betting is rubbish, not like football where on the day anything can happen (or you can get a good pick on an accumulator). Before Melbourne 2014 it was 6/1 odds on something like 6 or 7 cars failing to finish. I nearly chucked 20 quid on but bottled it. I think only 12/13 cars finished in the end.
I'm assuming you mean at least 6 or 7 cars failing to finish? If so, and you were a bookmaker, would you have offered longer odds in the first race of the year when the reliability of cars was largely unknown? If yes, then the result shows you wouldn't last long as a bookmaker!Gassing Station | Formula 1 | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff