Official 2024 Japanese Grand Prix Thread ***SPOILERS***

[WPA]

TheDeuce said:

entropy said:

carlo996 said:

And this is the point. Have they reached a stage where TW has simply run out of ideas? How can they be in such a mess at this point in time?

They went down the wrong car concept and development.

Now they're aligned with everybody else with RBR inspired sidepods Merc are behind the 8 ball by ~12-8 months.

If Merc had their way last year they would have built a completely new chassis mid-season but couldn't because of the cost cap.

Now they're blaming correlation wind tunnel / sim / real world correlation.

Personally I think we should do away with the cost cap. All it has done is give the appearance of equity when the reality is that are far deeper problems at playing catch-up (e.g. cap-ex) and opened a can of worms in a catering department that give you wings.

The problem is that while the alternative does allow teams to rapidly catch up and adapt, they can do so only if they have a lot of money to throw at the problem - which essentially means 'pay to win'. It's no coincidence that before the cost cap the established top three teams had by far the biggest budgets.

Now the cost caps are in place, the teams will all fiercely defend them remaining, because they have transformed the value and financial security of each team, so the caps are here to stay. But I do think that the current 'catch up' mechanic designed let struggling teams have more CFD and wind tunnel etc is insufficient. I'm not sure how to improve it or what the answer is but clearly it's not working as it is, RBR started miles ahead in the current regs era and haven't been caught up at all - not even close.

During the Merc period of dominance Ferrari got close a few seasons, close enough to get exciting and it was by no means a walk in the park for Merc to get them beaten. and of course 2021 RBR got very close to beating Merc

No one's on a tradjectory to put any serious pressure on RBR, and I think that'll remain the case at least until the new engine regs.

Is it time for the FIA to act then?

Lets be honest they tried hobbling Mercedes at every chance they could, surely it is now time they step in and close the field somehow.

Or do people think they are happy for viewing figures to keep dropping which they must be.

[TheDeuce]

WPA said:

TheDeuce said:

entropy said:

carlo996 said:

And this is the point. Have they reached a stage where TW has simply run out of ideas? How can they be in such a mess at this point in time?

They went down the wrong car concept and development.

Now they're aligned with everybody else with RBR inspired sidepods Merc are behind the 8 ball by ~12-8 months.

If Merc had their way last year they would have built a completely new chassis mid-season but couldn't because of the cost cap.

Now they're blaming correlation wind tunnel / sim / real world correlation.

Personally I think we should do away with the cost cap. All it has done is give the appearance of equity when the reality is that are far deeper problems at playing catch-up (e.g. cap-ex) and opened a can of worms in a catering department that give you wings.

The problem is that while the alternative does allow teams to rapidly catch up and adapt, they can do so only if they have a lot of money to throw at the problem - which essentially means 'pay to win'. It's no coincidence that before the cost cap the established top three teams had by far the biggest budgets.

Now the cost caps are in place, the teams will all fiercely defend them remaining, because they have transformed the value and financial security of each team, so the caps are here to stay. But I do think that the current 'catch up' mechanic designed let struggling teams have more CFD and wind tunnel etc is insufficient. I'm not sure how to improve it or what the answer is but clearly it's not working as it is, RBR started miles ahead in the current regs era and haven't been caught up at all - not even close.

During the Merc period of dominance Ferrari got close a few seasons, close enough to get exciting and it was by no means a walk in the park for Merc to get them beaten. and of course 2021 RBR got very close to beating Merc

No one's on a tradjectory to put any serious pressure on RBR, and I think that'll remain the case at least until the new engine regs.

Is it time for the FIA to act then?

Lets be honest they tried hobbling Mercedes at every chance they could, surely it is now time they step in and close the field somehow.

Or do people think they are happy for viewing figures to keep dropping which they must be.

I think that I'd rather see the FIA and Liberty reflect upon what's not working to help others catch up and refine the rules surrounding the cost caps than actually try and 'hobble' a team.

And I'm not sure they would want to hobble RBR anyway, I think they were very happy for Max, the young and exciting driver that has the most fans, to be a repeat WDC. I'm sure in the end they might get bored of it being the Max show... but until then the real problem isn't who is winning, but how far back everyone else is! To fix that they need to give the lower teams more of a development advantage I think.

I'm sure that along with the general new regs in 2026, a lot of learning from and adaption of the cost cap restrictions will come into play too. That's not to say it's the changes will actually work out well... but I'm sure there will be changes, because the current system isn't helping anyone catch up in a meaningful way.

[Mad Maximus]

Well it was nice to see some cherry blossom about this year. Just about the most interesting part of the GP apart from the back room gossip.

[PlywoodPascal]

good point TheDeuce.

When Mercedes just plain did a better job with their engine than all of their competitors in 2014, the FIA left the new 'development-token' regulations untouched for two years (iirc). The regulations allowed manufacturers to exchange tokens in return for being able to develop various components of their engines. The effect was essentially a cap or restriction on the rate of development. Nobody could catch Mercedes, and so the FIA changed the regulations to allow free development. the gap closed.

What we have with the cost cap is basically a development cap. Whatever region of the spend:development curve we are now in (after 3 years of regs) it seems that the curve is not yet sufficiently flat for the front runner(s) that those further behind can catch up in an appreciable time frame (like, a season).
Clearly the current framing of the cost cap (and wind tunnel/aero development restrictions) entrench car advantages rather than allow for them to be closed. The sport should see why this entrenching of technical advantage (especially one gained whilst breaking the rules as red bull did in 2021) is negative in the long term and act to rectify the issue.

no hobbling of competitors/winner is required, rather, the unhobbling.


that or perhaps they will instead use Amazon MEGACLOUDBRAIN or whatever it's called to analyse twitter and the driver of the day polls and determine whom they want to anoint next as the new big thing/'generational talent'.

[PlywoodPascal]

Mad Maximus said:

Well it was nice to see some cherry blossom about this year. Just about the most interesting part of the GP apart from the back room gossip.

just like the sporting renaissance it will one day wither and die.

[jm doc]

PlywoodPascal said:

good point TheDeuce.

When Mercedes just plain did a better job with their engine than all of their competitors in 2014, the FIA left the new 'development-token' regulations untouched for two years (iirc). The regulations allowed manufacturers to exchange tokens in return for being able to develop various components of their engines. The effect was essentially a cap or restriction on the rate of development. Nobody could catch Mercedes, and so the FIA changed the regulations to allow free development. the gap closed.

What we have with the cost cap is basically a development cap. Whatever region of the spend:development curve we are now in (after 3 years of regs) it seems that the curve is not yet sufficiently flat for the front runner(s) that those further behind can catch up in an appreciable time frame (like, a season).
Clearly the current framing of the cost cap (and wind tunnel/aero development restrictions) entrench car advantages rather than allow for them to be closed. The sport should see why this entrenching of technical advantage (especially one gained whilst breaking the rules as red bull did in 2021) is negative in the long term and act to rectify the issue.

no hobbling of competitors/winner is required, rather, the unhobbling.


that or perhaps they will instead use Amazon MEGACLOUDBRAIN or whatever it's called to analyse twitter and the driver of the day polls and determine whom they want to anoint next as the new big thing/'generational talent'.

It's actually not that different to the mess that football has got into with FFP, all it's really done is enshrined the advantage of the succesful teams and long-term will cripple the attractiveness of the Premier league worldwide, as we are see currently with F1. It's a big turnoff.

[entropy]

TheDeuce said:

But I do think that the current 'catch up' mechanic designed let struggling teams have more CFD and wind tunnel etc is insufficient. I'm not sure how to improve it or what the answer is but clearly it's not working as it is, RBR started miles ahead in the current regs era and haven't been caught up at all - not even close.

The cost cap is a security blanket. We've got more races, Liberty are bit more equitable c.f. BCE, the teams have enough power to shut down new entrants so that F1 remains 20 teams

The problem is the cost cap because how do you take advantage of having extra R&D time?

Ditch cost cap but keep RRA.

Or perhaps there should be a sliding spending scale akin to RRA?

[isaldiri]

WPA said:

Is it time for the FIA to act then?

Lets be honest they tried hobbling Mercedes at every chance they could, surely it is now time they step in and close the field somehow.

Or do people think they are happy for viewing figures to keep dropping which they must be.

If the FIA tried to mess around with aero rules to knock Red Bull back but end up letting them exploit any new loopholes better than everyone else it would be quite something for unintended consequences......

[TheDeuce]

entropy said:

TheDeuce said:

But I do think that the current 'catch up' mechanic designed let struggling teams have more CFD and wind tunnel etc is insufficient. I'm not sure how to improve it or what the answer is but clearly it's not working as it is, RBR started miles ahead in the current regs era and haven't been caught up at all - not even close.

The cost cap is a security blanket. We've got more races, Liberty are bit more equitable c.f. BCE, the teams have enough power to shut down new entrants so that F1 remains 20 teams

The problem is the cost cap because how do you take advantage of having extra R&D time?

Ditch cost cap but keep RRA.

Or perhaps there should be a sliding spending scale akin to RRA?

The problem with ditching the caps is the reasons you've just laid out for them being desirable - to both the sports rule makers, owner and the teams themselves.

I do think extra cap allowance for struggling teams would work wonderfully to let the likes of Ferrari, Merc and McLaren start to catch up to RBR, but the problem still remains that some other teams can't find a spare £20m even if they were allowed to spend it - and the basic principle of the caps is that it creates a level playing field, financially at least. Also the teams that can't find the extra budget are typically those that are furthest away from the top and need the biggest advantage.

I'm sure there must be a non financial way of delivering the lower teams of significant advantage, but I can't think of what/how

Anyone..?

[carlo996]

isaldiri said:

WPA said:

Is it time for the FIA to act then?

Lets be honest they tried hobbling Mercedes at every chance they could, surely it is now time they step in and close the field somehow.

Or do people think they are happy for viewing figures to keep dropping which they must be.

If the FIA tried to mess around with aero rules to knock Red Bull back but end up letting them exploit any new loopholes better than everyone else it would be quite something for unintended consequences......

Nobody was saying the same when Mercedes were on cruise control, all seems a bit sour grapes tbh.

[thegreenhell]

carlo996 said:

isaldiri said:

WPA said:

Is it time for the FIA to act then?

Lets be honest they tried hobbling Mercedes at every chance they could, surely it is now time they step in and close the field somehow.

Or do people think they are happy for viewing figures to keep dropping which they must be.

If the FIA tried to mess around with aero rules to knock Red Bull back but end up letting them exploit any new loopholes better than everyone else it would be quite something for unintended consequences......

Nobody was saying the same when Mercedes were on cruise control, all seems a bit sour grapes tbh.

Everyone was saying it, not least Christian Horner.

[entropy]

TheDeuce said:

I'm sure there must be a non financial way of delivering the lower teams of significant advantage, but I can't think of what/how

Anyone..?

Give them a few extra mm in diffuser height?

BoP is the answer no-one wants to hear. F1 is a meritocracy and if it remains so there's always going to be a team(s) doing a job better than the rest and the haves and have nots.

[cuprabob]

TheDeuce said:

I'm sure there must be a non financial way of delivering the lower teams of significant advantage, but I can't think of what/how

Anyone..?

I suppose the extra wind tunnel time the lower teams are allowed goes a little way towards that

[carlo996]

entropy said:

Give them a few extra mm in diffuser height?

BoP is the answer no-one wants to hear. F1 is a meritocracy and if it remains so there's always going to be a team(s) doing a job better than the rest and the haves and have nots.

But why penalise a team which had made the best of the regulations? It’s the opposite of what’s needed. Poor old Mercedes are going around in circles all by themselves. It’s tough luck. Get better people…

[thegreenhell]

entropy said:

TheDeuce said:

But I do think that the current 'catch up' mechanic designed let struggling teams have more CFD and wind tunnel etc is insufficient. I'm not sure how to improve it or what the answer is but clearly it's not working as it is, RBR started miles ahead in the current regs era and haven't been caught up at all - not even close.

The cost cap is a security blanket. We've got more races, Liberty are bit more equitable c.f. BCE, the teams have enough power to shut down new entrants so that F1 remains 20 teams

The problem is the cost cap because how do you take advantage of having extra R&D time?

Ditch cost cap but keep RRA.

Or perhaps there should be a sliding spending scale akin to RRA?

I'm all for keeping the cost cap if they then free up the technical side more and allow them to spend the limited budget any way they want. At the moment they're limiting how much they can spend and telling them how to spend it, and as a consequence any advantages or disadvantages are baked in for extended periods with no way for anyone to develop their way out of it.

There's also no real reason to ban testing now, as long as the costs are within the cap then it's the same for everyone, just have a couple of designated circuits they're allowed to test at to stop Ferrari from pounding around Fiorano endlessly.

I don't believe in hobbling the most successful or giving freebies to the weak, but they should all have the same opportunity to spend their resources in whichever way they think is the most useful, whether it's windtunnel or track testing or anything else they can think of. As long as all these things have a financial cost then the cost cap will give them equal opportunity to develop their cars.

The cleverest engineers will always prevail as long as the playing field is level. If that means one team is out in front of everyone else then so be it, but at least give the others the opportunities to catch up during the season without artificially limiting windtunnel time or track time.

[thegreenhell]

entropy said:

TheDeuce said:

I'm sure there must be a non financial way of delivering the lower teams of significant advantage, but I can't think of what/how

Anyone..?

Give them a few extra mm in diffuser height?

BoP is the answer no-one wants to hear. F1 is a meritocracy and if it remains so there's always going to be a team(s) doing a job better than the rest and the haves and have nots.

BoP is absolutely not the answer. If they want total equality of cars then they could collectively save a billion dollars a year and have a spec chassis, but nobody, the teams included, wants that. Spending that billion dollars on unique chassis and then hobbling the best ones through BoP is madness.

[NGK210]

Actual race highlights but in the medium of stop-motion Lego. Genius:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0Szu5wAMBYw

[White-Noise]

TheDeuce said:

The problem with ditching the caps is the reasons you've just laid out for them being desirable - to both the sports rule makers, owner and the teams themselves.

I do think extra cap allowance for struggling teams would work wonderfully to let the likes of Ferrari, Merc and McLaren start to catch up to RBR, but the problem still remains that some other teams can't find a spare £20m even if they were allowed to spend it - and the basic principle of the caps is that it creates a level playing field, financially at least. Also the teams that can't find the extra budget are typically those that are furthest away from the top and need the biggest advantage.

I'm sure there must be a non financial way of delivering the lower teams of significant advantage, but I can't think of what/how

Anyone..?

Motogp did something to help the lower teams. I can't remember what it was now but it helped suzuki get on the pace and they won the champ.

Bop I really don't like. It can make racing closer but it drives me nuts when a team gets a change and then can be further ahead of the others.

[entropy]

thegreenhell said:

I'm all for keeping the cost cap if they then free up the technical side more and allow them to spend the limited budget any way they want. At the moment they're limiting how much they can spend and telling them how to spend it, and as a consequence any advantages or disadvantages are baked in for extended periods with no way for anyone to develop their way out of it.

There's also no real reason to ban testing now, as long as the costs are within the cap then it's the same for everyone, just have a couple of designated circuits they're allowed to test at to stop Ferrari from pounding around Fiorano endlessly.

I don't believe in hobbling the most successful or giving freebies to the weak, but they should all have the same opportunity to spend their resources in whichever way they think is the most useful, whether it's windtunnel or track testing or anything else they can think of. As long as all these things have a financial cost then the cost cap will give them equal opportunity to develop their cars.

The cleverest engineers will always prevail as long as the playing field is level. If that means one team is out in front of everyone else then so be it, but at least give the others the opportunities to catch up during the season without artificially limiting windtunnel time or track time.

Teams can only spend on development on what they've got. The lesser teams don't have the spending power nor resources of top teams to take advantage of RRA or as suggested the greater technical freedoms.

Merc is an extreme example of cost cap and RRA not working. It's also hurting McLaren and AM.

Zak is adamant of keeping within the cost cap with McLaren then in theory it also plays into as a factor on McLaren not making more gains closing in on RBR this year?

Because AM started off '23 as the second best team but they were rewarded with earning less R&D time than they start the year with.

Teams will perennially yo-yo / stasis as also rans whilst a team like RBR can keep their performance over a season.

[White-Noise]

thegreenhell said:

carlo996 said:

isaldiri said:

WPA said:

Is it time for the FIA to act then?

Lets be honest they tried hobbling Mercedes at every chance they could, surely it is now time they step in and close the field somehow.

Or do people think they are happy for viewing figures to keep dropping which they must be.

If the FIA tried to mess around with aero rules to knock Red Bull back but end up letting them exploit any new loopholes better than everyone else it would be quite something for unintended consequences......

Nobody was saying the same when Mercedes were on cruise control, all seems a bit sour grapes tbh.

Everyone was saying it, not least Christian Horner.

Plus the mercs had a much more equal driver line up which kept the drama coming. Its all well and good saying it was the same then but it was more of a battle at the front and that kept it interesting. There were 2 different world driver champions during that time. It's like comparing the Schumacher Ferrari era to Mclaren with Prost and Senna, its not the same.