RE: Caterham: the future

RE: Caterham: the future

Author
Discussion

suffolk009

5,344 posts

164 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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It has just occured to me that if Caterham want to get into the four seater, stripped out, lightweight family car sector....well, it might look something like this.


LongLiveTazio

2,714 posts

196 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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I don't understand why they're not collaborating with Gordon Murray. A Caterham T25, a lightweight sports car next and a highly efficient manufacturing process with minimal tooling that would suit such a small operation. Of course there would also be the Chapman/Murray and F1 link with the benefit of one of the world's greatest car engineers being able to give his expertise.

This 40-50k sports car market is always talked about and yet doesn't really seem to exist. Every time someone tries to launch one it ends up being 60k+. They don't sell any because few people buy weekend cars costing that much, especially when you can buy an excellent Ferrari for much less, and it's never as well finished as a Porsche, nor does it have the benefits of a proven brand behind it so people won't consider it as a daily.

With good finance deals people can realistically afford a 25k or less car, they should be going after that.

Twincam16

27,646 posts

257 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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LongLiveTazio said:
I don't understand why they're not collaborating with Gordon Murray. A Caterham T25, a lightweight sports car next and a highly efficient manufacturing process with minimal tooling that would suit such a small operation. Of course there would also be the Chapman/Murray and F1 link with the benefit of one of the world's greatest car engineers being able to give his expertise.

This 40-50k sports car market is always talked about and yet doesn't really seem to exist. Every time someone tries to launch one it ends up being 60k+. They don't sell any because few people buy weekend cars costing that much, especially when you can buy an excellent Ferrari for much less, and it's never as well finished as a Porsche, nor does it have the benefits of a proven brand behind it so people won't consider it as a daily.

With good finance deals people can realistically afford a 25k or less car, they should be going after that.
Agreed - actually given how expensive the Elise has become (OK, you can buy a cheaper one but if you want thumping performance you have to spend Lotus money on it (Lotuses have always been fairly expensive)), perhaps the market would take quite well to a reintroduced 21, or evolution thereof?

I mean, how much would it cost as a factory turnkey? I reckon they could get it down to the fabled £25k, if they based it on the entry-level Seven.

DonkeyApple

54,921 posts

168 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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LongLiveTazio said:
I don't understand why they're not collaborating with Gordon Murray. A Caterham T25, a lightweight sports car next and a highly efficient manufacturing process with minimal tooling that would suit such a small operation. Of course there would also be the Chapman/Murray and F1 link with the benefit of one of the world's greatest car engineers being able to give his expertise.

This 40-50k sports car market is always talked about and yet doesn't really seem to exist. Every time someone tries to launch one it ends up being 60k+. They don't sell any because few people buy weekend cars costing that much, especially when you can buy an excellent Ferrari for much less, and it's never as well finished as a Porsche, nor does it have the benefits of a proven brand behind it so people won't consider it as a daily.

With good finance deals people can realistically afford a 25k or less car, they should be going after that.
The problem can really be seen when you take the cost of a good kit car and then the number of hours a trained mechanic can build it in and multiply those hours by about £30 and see what sort of end price you actually get. It's an extremely crude calculation but it really shows the power of bulk buying, bulk assembly and automation as well as cheap foreign labour in some cases.


LongLiveTazio

2,714 posts

196 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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DonkeyApple said:
The problem can really be seen when you take the cost of a good kit car and then the number of hours a trained mechanic can build it in and multiply those hours by about £30 and see what sort of end price you actually get. It's an extremely crude calculation but it really shows the power of bulk buying, bulk assembly and automation as well as cheap foreign labour in some cases.
Totally, but this is why they need to think outside of the box and platform share to some extent and box clever with the manufacturing. The amount of times companies have shot themselves in the foot with numbers apparently plucked from thin air... Why do it?!

wile7

275 posts

220 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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You just have to look at firms such as Donkervoort to see the common sense in sticking with a proven formula - just develop it mechanically. Although only 6 years younger than Caterham (1978 I think they began) their sevenesque car has remained similar in form but has received massive heart and lung transplants over the years from basic ford units through to top spec Audi transplants. The current D8 GTO is awesome I feel, but the company has stuck to its roots, it's one car platform and simply evolutionised (sic) it over the years.

I hark back to my earlier post - develop what you have on the seven platform. If you try and diversify you will fail in the current market and we will be reading on PH about the demise of Caterham in two years time (or earlier) as a manufacturer of exciting and rewarding sports cars.

kambites

67,461 posts

220 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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confused Are people really comparing something that Caterham are likely to produce to a 911?

davepoth

29,395 posts

198 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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kambites said:
confused Are people really comparing something that Caterham are likely to produce to a 911?
And that's the problem. Brand new Caterham, nearly new Porsche - which would you buy?

ewenm

28,506 posts

244 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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davepoth said:
And that's the problem. Brand new Caterham, nearly new Porsche - which would you buy?
No idea because we have no facts about what the new Caterham is going to be.

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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davepoth said:
And that's the problem. Brand new Caterham, nearly new Porsche - which would you buy?
See, the thing is - and making some assumptions about what kind of car they will make - even if a brand new Caterham and a brand new 911 were both 40 grand, I'd still rather have the Caterham. I'd rather have a new 7 CSR than a new 911. Unless I planned to spend a lot of time sitting in traffic or pounding the motorway, at least.

Tuna

19,930 posts

283 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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davepoth said:
And that's the problem. Brand new Caterham, nearly new Porsche - which would you buy?
By that token, why buy any new car at all? Brand new 911 v's nearly new Lambo.. Brand new Boxter v's nearly new Exige... Brand new anything versus something else with 30% off..

That said, I wouldn't buy a Porsche, just don't want one.

DonkeyApple

54,921 posts

168 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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otolith said:
See, the thing is - and making some assumptions about what kind of car they will make - even if a brand new Caterham and a brand new 911 were both 40 grand, I'd still rather have the Caterham. I'd rather have a new 7 CSR than a new 911. Unless I planned to spend a lot of time sitting in traffic or pounding the motorway, at least.
Especially if you look at it from the perspective of the second car.

The 911 is a primary car, like a BMW or Audi. Sure there are extreme versions but the majority of sales are to people who only have space for, or want one car and want something that is fun but totally reliable and practical.

When it comes to people wanting a second car the criteria change dramatically. The second car is typically the fun car. Practicality and even reliability are weaker criteria. The dominant criteria is the smile factor.

For some people it is a V8 rumble, for others it is spritely, nimble handling and for others it is a classic car. But really, it's never a 911 statistically.

Few people raise their garage door and have an involuntary smile and little kick of excitement when they look upon a normal 911. Everyone does when behind that door is something like a Caterham.

That is for me why you can never compare any Caterham product to a Porsche.

If I could only ever have one car, I would have a Porsche. But so long a I can have more than one car I have not a jot of interest in any product Porsche make.

Caterham would be silly to try and make a 'Porsche' and they won't. Even if they wanted to they can't.

Caterham will make a car that follows the ethos of Caterham and the 7 but ticks different boxes so as to appeal to a customer base that is similar to the 7 customer base in the experience they want but different in how they want it delivered.

There is definitely a demand for such a product and the price point mentioned isn't an issue. But they have noted that to keep it in a key range they may not be able to use UK resources for this model. The key I think is solely how it looks. It will obviously drive like a 7 and I suspect trimmed in the same style but their biggest gamble is whether to go the way everyone else has tried and be retro or to grow a pair and give it a modern style shell.

I feel the latter. It needs to be a little radical to play up on the fact that Caterham is now in F1 and not just replicating a late 50s look.

Good luck to them and go for it.

Tuna

19,930 posts

283 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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DonkeyApple said:
I thought this was the case as well.

A friend has a CSR and I'm sure it cost more than 40.

I found the CSR to be an exquisite piece of kit. The smoothness of the suspension and handling on normal roads came over as far superior to normal sevens.

Caterham aren't going to stop with the cheaper products but they can clearly sell a seven in the 40k band and I suspect there are people like me who love the seven experience but just don't want the seven shape etc.

Their 80k track car looks very impressive as well.

But something else to contemplate is that in Asia the new money doesn't want toys that look old like a seven. Like a lot of new money they shy away from heritage to start with and just want what is new and modern.

It's us Brits who love retro and the more established overseas punter but the largest group with money to blow are the Asian new money. Caterham need something that appeals more to this group.

Personally I think they should opt for a body shape that is ultra modern. It will shock us Brits but we are all debt ridden and depressed so not the best market to build a business around at the moment.

If you think back to the classic swooping shapes of the 60s that we all think of as beautifully classic, at the time they were cutting edge. So instead of harking back in time (they already build one of the most iconic cars from the past) I think they should look forward and do something that will catch the eyes of young Britons for future sales and modern overseas fat and growing wallets for current sales. This also geographically and culturally diversifies their revenue streams.
Good observations, I tend to agree.

Many years ago I worked for a company selling to telecoms companies around the world. We had rustic offices in the countryside - considered very cool in the UK. Yet, when inviting national players from around the world, many were unimpressed. They associate 'rustic' with the old days they're coming from. Show them an office of concrete and steel (even a refurb of a 70's office block!) and they associate 'modern' with where they're trying to go.

splitpin

2,740 posts

197 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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DonkeyApple said:
The 911 is a primary car, like a BMW or Audi. Sure there are extreme versions but the majority of sales are to people who only have space for, or want one car and want something that is fun but totally reliable and practical.
I know where you are coming from, but I don't think that is true.

I know about twenty guys who have 911s and I don't think there's one who uses it as a their primary or sole car; for most it's their third car, most with something like an S Class etc and a Range Rover etc as their everyday wheels. Several have sunny day/trackday weaponry like a Caterham etc making it their fourth plus option. The 7 is niche and if Caterham (or the new bean-counter) try to go beyond or even try to abandon 'niche', they will come a gigantic cropper in no time at all and that would be very sad.

DonkeyApple

54,921 posts

168 months

Thursday 19th July 2012
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Tuna said:
Good observations, I tend to agree.

Many years ago I worked for a company selling to telecoms companies around the world. We had rustic offices in the countryside - considered very cool in the UK. Yet, when inviting national players from around the world, many were unimpressed. They associate 'rustic' with the old days they're coming from. Show them an office of concrete and steel (even a refurb of a 70's office block!) and they associate 'modern' with where they're trying to go.
It's the exact reason why most of us in my industry have a quaint office outside London for quality of life and as it's better for UK clients but maintain a contract with an office company in Mayfair for our overseas (non US/EU) clients.

New money wants shiny and modern. Once the money gets a little old they understand the value of 'old' and crave that for status but while there is a healthy market in Asia for classic English goods when it comes to cars they want modern.

I think Caterham will find it hard to tap into Asia with the 7 and this is the real reason why they want this new car. It's a 7 for the Far East, where the money is. Obviously at the same time it is important that they handle the current markets wisely and integrate this new concept as best as possible there.

The 7 isn't going away anytime soon. He didn't mean in this article that people would eventually stop buying the 7. They won't. What he meant was that if their competition get into these new and vital markets ahead of them then the 7 won't be being bought from Caterham as they will have been mullered by their currently weaker competition. It's about who can be the first to establish 'brand' in these new markets and they feel that to do this they need a different looking product to the 7 and one that ticks a couple of different boxes.

sunsurfer

305 posts

180 months

Friday 20th July 2012
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DonkeyApple said:
... The key I think is solely how it looks. It will obviously drive like a 7 and I suspect trimmed in the same style but their biggest gamble is whether to go the way everyone else has tried and be retro or to grow a pair and give it a modern style shell.

I feel the latter. It needs to be a little radical to play up on the fact that Caterham is now in F1 and not just replicating a late 50s look.

Good luck to them and go for it.
I agree and if the finances can stretch to it they should ask design houses and individuals to sketch out ideas.

I also suspect if they are planning a new car and construction process they will set it up so there is substantial commonality of parts and construction shared between the seven and the new model.
A bit like Lotus modular sports/super car line...I guess I'll get my coat!

DonkeyApple

54,921 posts

168 months

Friday 20th July 2012
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splitpin said:
I know where you are coming from, but I don't think that is true.

I know about twenty guys who have 911s and I don't think there's one who uses it as a their primary or sole car; for most it's their third car, most with something like an S Class etc and a Range Rover etc as their everyday wheels. Several have sunny day/trackday weaponry like a Caterham etc making it their fourth plus option. The 7 is niche and if Caterham (or the new bean-counter) try to go beyond or even try to abandon 'niche', they will come a gigantic cropper in no time at all and that would be very sad.
Most of the people I know have the Porsche as their runabout and something fun in the garage if tey have a garage. The wife usually has the practical family car.

But I don't think for one moment Caterham are aiming at anything other than a car with 7 ability but a different look. I'm not entirely sure why the moment they want to put a rook and doors on a car it's assumed they are going after the non sporting, sportscar market.

JenkinsComp

918 posts

246 months

Friday 20th July 2012
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Caterham's USP is making light small sports cars.
The 7 is a British icon, and should not be built elsewhere at the expense of production in the UK, unless they wish to ruin the company and the brand like TVR did, like Mini has, like Bentley has.

Why do some managers of companies think that they always have to "grow" or "expand" anyway?
Why not recognize your market is what it is and carry on making a sustainable profit from your unque product? Year on year "growth" is just foolish greed, and is what has ruined western economies.

If Caterham must build another car, then leverage your USP of light small cars, and offer a modern turbo diesel, dual clutch gearbox, and make the first true 100mpg road car (that would still beat 6 secs 0-60 and handle like a beauty). A true 100mpg would make a great headline and prove that light sports cars are the greenest cars, not some polluting folly as some misguided people would like to think.

This could easily be followed up with a small T25/Moke type car with rear wheel drive 500kgs and 125ish bhp. I always fancied the idea of a small RWD 4 seater with a mid mounted Honda Gold Wing flat 6, 125bhp and 6 speed sequential gearbox (and the bike gearbox comes with a reverse!), that fits into a box the size of an original Mini or some other modern design of a small hatchback. This would produce performance in the range of 0-60 in 6 seconds, with easily more than 60mpg if the shape was reasonably aerodynamic. Needs to cost about 10k. Can be done easily with a spaceframe chassis & fibreglass body. Like the T25, using simple materials you could build that anywhere with local workforce, due to the simple technology.

DonkeyApple

54,921 posts

168 months

Friday 20th July 2012
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Ok. But where have tey said they would be building the 7 overseas?

The cost of a more complicated shell on a conventional roofed car makes it sensible to explore if that can be done cheaper overseas and if the chassis assembly can be done for much less labour cost that also makes sense.

Putting this components together in Asia for Asian clients to save on shipping costs and crippling import taxes also makes sense.

But I'm not sure anything in that article alludes to any such thing as not continuing with the 7 or building it overseas? Where has this come from?

Bill

52,472 posts

254 months

Friday 20th July 2012
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wile7 said:
You just have to look at firms such as Donkervoort to see the common sense in sticking with a proven formula - just develop it mechanically. Although only 6 years younger than Caterham (1978 I think they began) their sevenesque car has remained similar in form but has received massive heart and lung transplants over the years from basic ford units through to top spec Audi transplants. The current D8 GTO is awesome I feel, but the company has stuck to its roots, it's one car platform and simply evolutionised (sic) it over the years.

I hark back to my earlier post - develop what you have on the seven platform. If you try and diversify you will fail in the current market and we will be reading on PH about the demise of Caterham in two years time (or earlier) as a manufacturer of exciting and rewarding sports cars.
How many cars do they sell a year? Because I suspect Caterham are already doing better.