RE: PH Blog: is Shed motoring doomed?
Discussion
aeropilot said:
The Jolly Todger said:
Won't the bigger issue for future shedmen be the current push towards smaller capacity turbocharged engines? Surely these have far more chance of becoming economically unviable to repair as they get older compared to the N/A cars?
Why....?It's only a turbo, not a Saturn V rocket assembly.
SuperHangOn said:
The E38 is mechanically traditional and fairly DIY friendly. The E65 which came afterwards will be a whole different ball game (I expect). Some jobs require specialist tools and knowledge to fit even if you can pick up cheap secondhand parts- with specialist charging £75/hour it just won't be feasible to spend 8hr's repairing air suspension ECU's and stuff.
Cars like it are already out there- try bodging up a Soarer with active suspension on the cheap. It won't happen.
You've sort of gone and contradicted yourself by mentioning the Soarers. It can't of been much more than 5 years since I became aware of active suspension 32s and in tthat time it has gone from a matter of praying that one of the 873 of them made was being broken and had good struts if yours had packed it in, to today where you can get the legs regassed for a reasonable sum of money. The point being that people do adapt and find work arounds to keep cars that they love on the road.Cars like it are already out there- try bodging up a Soarer with active suspension on the cheap. It won't happen.
Edited by 279 on Wednesday 9th January 22:37
xRIEx said:
Already been done - www.ted.com/talks/avi_rubin_all_your_devices_can_b.... Skip to 4:47 for the car hacking.
Jeez, that is worrying especially the part about disabling brakes and running the target car from a following vehicle.
Just off to plan the perfect "moider".
Cheers,
Tony
279 said:
You've sort of gone and contradicted yourself by mentioning the Soarers. It can't of been much more than 5 years since I became aware of active suspension 32s and in tthat time it has gone from a matter of praying that one of the 873 of them made was being broken and had good struts if yours had packed it in, to today where you can get the legs regassed for a reasonable sum of money. The point being that people do adapt and find work arounds to keep cars that they love on the road.
Ok if you don't mind taking your car off the road for a few weeks while you post half your suspension to a geek on ebay. I rebuilt the air suspension on my P38 with some rebuilt kits I ordered from america and soapy water.. would rather fit a pair of £30 springs from German & Swedish though Edited by 279 on Wednesday 9th January 22:37
. Edited by SuperHangOn on Wednesday 9th January 22:54
For some cars I am not pessimistic, even the electronic bits can be sorted with a bit of aftermarket knowledge; for others like the posher BMWs, Audis and the like, I think they are doomed in the long term, as many of the owners are not car enthusiasts, but fashion/status seekers.
Talk about peak oil being pushed back by 20-40 years by "fracking" suggest that the personal car will be around for a fair bit longer to come. For me, I have the galvanised Defender solution, (200Tdi and minimal electrics), but I also have a 1990 Eunos and an even older Morgan, (1972 Capri 1600 technology!).
A friend of mine has a 2001 MX5 where the engine ECU had got wet. It was reconditioned by a independent specialist for about half what Mazda wanted and similar specialists are becoming more common. The MX5OC forum suggested an aftermarket ECU, (Emerald), which might have been overall a little cheaper, but I wanted the car's owner to be able to take it back to Mazda for servicing, (though on past form God knows why!).
For some cars, the aftermarket has come up with equivalent or even better alternatives to OEM bits, think LR P38, fast Subarus, MX5, VW Golf/Rabbit and for vehicles with an enthusiast following this can only get better. As was pointed out by a previous poster, it is the intellectual property, (IP), availability that makes a difference. One of the senior engineers on the Toyota/Subaru project have suggested that the base car will be an "Open Source" project with many third party suppliers of special bits. If this really happens, then I see this as the next really durable car.
On the electronic side it is possible to make a programmable black box to replicate the actions of a previous long dead black boxes, (think PC emulations of long dead Sinclair games!), so it ought be possible to have a universal body module unit if you can sort out all of the inputs and outputs. Think MegaSquirt for secondary systems. The issue here is I cannot see there being enough of an enthusiast base to pay for development of an aftermarket body module for a 7 Series or an A6. For a future MX5 or GT86 I can see it, so long as they continue to sell well and motivate their owners to keep them.
In the long term, I'd suggest that mass production will become less important as resources become more expensive. I am a keen advocate of the Durable Car and I expect to keep mine for a very long time. www.jeremymedwards.co.uk
Talk about peak oil being pushed back by 20-40 years by "fracking" suggest that the personal car will be around for a fair bit longer to come. For me, I have the galvanised Defender solution, (200Tdi and minimal electrics), but I also have a 1990 Eunos and an even older Morgan, (1972 Capri 1600 technology!).
A friend of mine has a 2001 MX5 where the engine ECU had got wet. It was reconditioned by a independent specialist for about half what Mazda wanted and similar specialists are becoming more common. The MX5OC forum suggested an aftermarket ECU, (Emerald), which might have been overall a little cheaper, but I wanted the car's owner to be able to take it back to Mazda for servicing, (though on past form God knows why!).
For some cars, the aftermarket has come up with equivalent or even better alternatives to OEM bits, think LR P38, fast Subarus, MX5, VW Golf/Rabbit and for vehicles with an enthusiast following this can only get better. As was pointed out by a previous poster, it is the intellectual property, (IP), availability that makes a difference. One of the senior engineers on the Toyota/Subaru project have suggested that the base car will be an "Open Source" project with many third party suppliers of special bits. If this really happens, then I see this as the next really durable car.
On the electronic side it is possible to make a programmable black box to replicate the actions of a previous long dead black boxes, (think PC emulations of long dead Sinclair games!), so it ought be possible to have a universal body module unit if you can sort out all of the inputs and outputs. Think MegaSquirt for secondary systems. The issue here is I cannot see there being enough of an enthusiast base to pay for development of an aftermarket body module for a 7 Series or an A6. For a future MX5 or GT86 I can see it, so long as they continue to sell well and motivate their owners to keep them.
In the long term, I'd suggest that mass production will become less important as resources become more expensive. I am a keen advocate of the Durable Car and I expect to keep mine for a very long time. www.jeremymedwards.co.uk
Not sure there are too many professionals posting here.. Think the problem may be much worse than many realise.. The problems are ALL electrical.. Do you know what parts you can safely remove from a modern high end car WITHOUT taking it to a thieving Main Dealer to have the relevant repair mode activated on a car.. Answer Not much! A suspension leg has no electrical parts, right? Wrong.. Some manufacturers chip such components, and their replacement requires the manufacturers computer system to code the new part to the ECU..
So even if you know what's wrong with the car, and can get a 2nd hand part, it might well put your car into limp mode from which it will never return.
Speedo failure on a modern Citroen, got a 2nd hand one? Don't fit it! The e-prom on the speedo 'remembers' the mileage of the vehicle it was taken from.. Fit it to another car.. even just to confirm a fault, and it will add the mileage from the old car to the mileage of yours.. Dash will show your car has moon mile on it.. Fit it back to the old car, and it will do the same again. Ask a Citroen mechanic!
Walk round your local independent body shop, and check the wrinkles on the owners face.. If he's still trading. It's a tough, tough world in the motortrade at the mo. Modern chasis materials and assembly techniques make the simplest of body repairs very difficult. And how many dealers tell the customer the pitfalls of running a diesel car with a particulate filter? Heard a great story recently about a guy replacing a window regulator.. Took the door panel off, without disconnecting the wires to the 'box' put it down on the floor UPSIDE DOWN. Set off £4k worth of airbags!
Shed motoring is coming to an end.. Enjoy it while you can. Todays euro-box has a very short shelf life. Because a C1 costs £7k, and a dealers labour rate will be around £80 per hour. Buy it.. Service it.. Crush it.. If manufacturers could 'crush' every shed, imagine how many new cars they would sell!
The ONLY upside is reliability. Most major manufacturers now know how to build a reliable car.. (Except perhaps Alfa). That wasn't true 30 years ago. Perhaps as is the case even now, a high end BMW or Merc will be worth less than a Corsa, C1 etc..
Interesting times..
So even if you know what's wrong with the car, and can get a 2nd hand part, it might well put your car into limp mode from which it will never return.
Speedo failure on a modern Citroen, got a 2nd hand one? Don't fit it! The e-prom on the speedo 'remembers' the mileage of the vehicle it was taken from.. Fit it to another car.. even just to confirm a fault, and it will add the mileage from the old car to the mileage of yours.. Dash will show your car has moon mile on it.. Fit it back to the old car, and it will do the same again. Ask a Citroen mechanic!
Walk round your local independent body shop, and check the wrinkles on the owners face.. If he's still trading. It's a tough, tough world in the motortrade at the mo. Modern chasis materials and assembly techniques make the simplest of body repairs very difficult. And how many dealers tell the customer the pitfalls of running a diesel car with a particulate filter? Heard a great story recently about a guy replacing a window regulator.. Took the door panel off, without disconnecting the wires to the 'box' put it down on the floor UPSIDE DOWN. Set off £4k worth of airbags!
Shed motoring is coming to an end.. Enjoy it while you can. Todays euro-box has a very short shelf life. Because a C1 costs £7k, and a dealers labour rate will be around £80 per hour. Buy it.. Service it.. Crush it.. If manufacturers could 'crush' every shed, imagine how many new cars they would sell!
The ONLY upside is reliability. Most major manufacturers now know how to build a reliable car.. (Except perhaps Alfa). That wasn't true 30 years ago. Perhaps as is the case even now, a high end BMW or Merc will be worth less than a Corsa, C1 etc..
Interesting times..
renrut said:
The sheds of tomorrow are the sheds of today - very cheap to keep a shed running long term if you pick the right one.
Old school indirect diesel turbo or a multipoint petrol engine with no turbo would be my choicey picks. Gearbox - manual without a DMF. Pick it right and there are no big bills looming. Pick one without too many airbags and even that ain't such a big problem. 1995-2001 is about the zenith for minimal electrics and maximum reliability/corrosion protection, IMO they've all taken a bit of a step back since then. Also if you get a big engine you escape the CO2/km monster in the closet being pre2001.
This is true, although I will always have a modern car I keep an eye on Ebay for W123 or W124 Mercs or another Range Rover Classic, although finding one of them with a diesel engine isn't the easiest feat, likely to go up in value and very simple to work on.Old school indirect diesel turbo or a multipoint petrol engine with no turbo would be my choicey picks. Gearbox - manual without a DMF. Pick it right and there are no big bills looming. Pick one without too many airbags and even that ain't such a big problem. 1995-2001 is about the zenith for minimal electrics and maximum reliability/corrosion protection, IMO they've all taken a bit of a step back since then. Also if you get a big engine you escape the CO2/km monster in the closet being pre2001.
I wouldn't count on too many sheds in the future.
First new cars are being designed so that expensive components are bound to cheap, expendable ones that break (airflow meters in manifolds, ECUs in manifolds etc.). It's a "cost saving" that makes the cars uneconomical to repair.
Secondly, we've got new engine design. Common rail diesels have gotten so stressed they have trouble getting past 120-140k mark without expensive repairs (each around or over 1000 pounds, like injectors, turbo, dual mass flywheel, high pressure fuel pump, DPF etc.). Petrols are getting direct injection, so the same problems as diesels (there was a reason to Mitsubishi abandoning the tech in the 90s).
Thirdly, scaling down. How reliable 1.0, 1.2 or 1.4 turbo is going to be? Those engines have to move 1.5 tonne cars around. How thick the rods are? How good the pistons? Sure, first user should have little problem, but after a while stress will take its toll. Remember, this is part of the same cost saving exercise as first point above.
Looks like I'll be driving 90s and 2000s cars until they all rot through or manufacturers regain sanity.
First new cars are being designed so that expensive components are bound to cheap, expendable ones that break (airflow meters in manifolds, ECUs in manifolds etc.). It's a "cost saving" that makes the cars uneconomical to repair.
Secondly, we've got new engine design. Common rail diesels have gotten so stressed they have trouble getting past 120-140k mark without expensive repairs (each around or over 1000 pounds, like injectors, turbo, dual mass flywheel, high pressure fuel pump, DPF etc.). Petrols are getting direct injection, so the same problems as diesels (there was a reason to Mitsubishi abandoning the tech in the 90s).
Thirdly, scaling down. How reliable 1.0, 1.2 or 1.4 turbo is going to be? Those engines have to move 1.5 tonne cars around. How thick the rods are? How good the pistons? Sure, first user should have little problem, but after a while stress will take its toll. Remember, this is part of the same cost saving exercise as first point above.
Looks like I'll be driving 90s and 2000s cars until they all rot through or manufacturers regain sanity.
On the flip side of the argument, there are a number of companies making pattern parts to near as OE specs.
Companies such as Blueprint are making parts now for some pretty obscure cars and their parts website is pretty good once youve subscribed.
Motor factors are in reality facing a bit of a boom, fewer people want to pay stealer prices when diagnosis is sometimes as simple as a £14 ODB2 bluetooth adaptor and a copy of Torque on your phone. Stealers must be fuming at the fact that for every one sold chances are its a garage not getting another diagnosis to charge for.
However, in build obsolescence does seem to be the way manufactures build. Add to that the fact we probably drive more now that we ever did due to the road network and how reliable we perceive our cars to be.
How many people in the 1960's would load their car up with holiday stuff and drive to Switzerland for example? Not many I would think, but its what we expect now - cars that will drive to the moon and back with just a few oil changes, tyres and fuel thrown in!
Companies such as Blueprint are making parts now for some pretty obscure cars and their parts website is pretty good once youve subscribed.
Motor factors are in reality facing a bit of a boom, fewer people want to pay stealer prices when diagnosis is sometimes as simple as a £14 ODB2 bluetooth adaptor and a copy of Torque on your phone. Stealers must be fuming at the fact that for every one sold chances are its a garage not getting another diagnosis to charge for.
However, in build obsolescence does seem to be the way manufactures build. Add to that the fact we probably drive more now that we ever did due to the road network and how reliable we perceive our cars to be.
How many people in the 1960's would load their car up with holiday stuff and drive to Switzerland for example? Not many I would think, but its what we expect now - cars that will drive to the moon and back with just a few oil changes, tyres and fuel thrown in!
SuperHangOn said:
279 said:
You've sort of gone and contradicted yourself by mentioning the Soarers. It can't of been much more than 5 years since I became aware of active suspension 32s and in tthat time it has gone from a matter of praying that one of the 873 of them made was being broken and had good struts if yours had packed it in, to today where you can get the legs regassed for a reasonable sum of money. The point being that people do adapt and find work arounds to keep cars that they love on the road.
Ok if you don't mind taking your car off the road for a few weeks while you post half your suspension to a geek on ebay. I rebuilt the air suspension on my P38 with some rebuilt kits I ordered from america and soapy water.. would rather fit a pair of £30 springs from German & Swedish though Edited by 279 on Wednesday 9th January 22:37
. Edited by SuperHangOn on Wednesday 9th January 22:54
I think the amount of tech in modern cars is pretty absurd really, and I'm saying that as a design engineer not some luddite. It's not just the electronics but seal for life this and that which will prevent future DIY maintainance too.
A laptop will have to be part of every toolkit as fault finding otherwise will be a nightmare. As long as the supply of little black boxes for modern cars is there then people ought to be able to repair them but at what cost?
For me my '02 Focus TDDI probably has about the right amount of tech for A to B driving. My '89 XJ40 has quite a lot of electricals but it's relatively easy to fix as components aren't highly intergrated like they are in moderns.
A laptop will have to be part of every toolkit as fault finding otherwise will be a nightmare. As long as the supply of little black boxes for modern cars is there then people ought to be able to repair them but at what cost?
For me my '02 Focus TDDI probably has about the right amount of tech for A to B driving. My '89 XJ40 has quite a lot of electricals but it's relatively easy to fix as components aren't highly intergrated like they are in moderns.
Never discount the possibilities of EU/save the polar bear/penguin/ice caps/whale legislation with lots of countries wanting to scrap/reduce shed usage to a minimum & OEM's wanting to forbid anyone from fitting aftermarket parts, 
f
ers
Think of the children, won't someone please think of the children
fersThink of the children, won't someone please think of the children
I agree with those who say the 1990s are the zenith of affordable shedding. As others (more knowledgable than me) have said, ECUs can be worked around, but ePROMs, part prices/availability and the advance of MOT regs can't.
...and as for DMFs, DPFs, direct injection, turbo'd everything, integrated multi-media systems (& worse - iDrive/MMI/etc), multi-airbags etc. etc. - these are hitting the runners of 3-6y.o. cars already, even before these motors reach shed money. Costly failures that mean a 3y.o. car requires a good warranty unless it's as boggo as an Aygo.
SOME modern cars will continue to be owned/maintained/looked-after - but probably only the expensive stuff and the true enthusiast machinery - your average hot-hatch will be scrapped as quickly as anything else.
...and as for DMFs, DPFs, direct injection, turbo'd everything, integrated multi-media systems (& worse - iDrive/MMI/etc), multi-airbags etc. etc. - these are hitting the runners of 3-6y.o. cars already, even before these motors reach shed money. Costly failures that mean a 3y.o. car requires a good warranty unless it's as boggo as an Aygo.
SOME modern cars will continue to be owned/maintained/looked-after - but probably only the expensive stuff and the true enthusiast machinery - your average hot-hatch will be scrapped as quickly as anything else.
What a bunch of PH whingers,
- Cars are cheaper now than they've ever been
- Cars are more reliable now than they've ever been
- Cars last at least as long now as they ever have
- I imagine that back in the 1970s/1980s nobody needed to worry about repair costs on an alder car because the the bodywork would be dissolving in front of your eyes every time it rained!
Ozzie Osmond said:
"Shed motoring" has always been a PH myth unless you're prepared to throw away the shed the first time it gets a serious problem. Let's face it, a big old BMW/Merc can land you with a £1,000 bill at the drop of a hat.
That's only true if you buy a basket case and/or are unable to do work on it yourself. Secondhand parts for old barges and the like are peanuts, the only parts that might kill off a shed are a dead engine or 'box, or badly damaged bodywork. What else is going to cost £1k?!Ozzie Osmond said:
What a bunch of PH whingers,
1) No they're not. £30k for a Golf GTi???- Cars are cheaper now than they've ever been
- Cars are more reliable now than they've ever been
- Cars last at least as long now as they ever have
- I imagine that back in the 1970s/1980s nobody needed to worry about repair costs on an alder car because the the bodywork would be dissolving in front of your eyes every time it rained!
2) Debatable, esp. in the last 4-5 years as electronics have proliferated, as have DPFs, DMFs, DI and all the other crap mentioned on here.
3) See (2). Rust was largely conquered as a short-term issue in the mid-90s with galvanising of bodyshells. There's not been any progress since then, really.
4) If you had a Lancia, you'd be right. For most other cars, you WOULD need to do some work on the car by it's 10th birthday, but wheelarches etc. were considered almost a maintenance item. My first car (a 1978 VW Polo which was 13y.o. when I was given it) had some rust on the arches but with a little work still looked OK when I scrapped it (engine woes) 5 years later.
5) But a less-complex car can be maintained for a lot less cash, and once you have no depreciation worries (~20% of the car's value each year, on a reducing balance basis, so a £10k car would lose £2k then £1,600 etc...) you've got a little bit of leeway. The problem comes when someone with a set budget splashes the whole lot on a shed without considering maintenance.
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