RE: DiCaprio's Formula E team
Discussion
While I'm on a roll and just to correct a few more untruths (again):
The jury is out because the EV issue is about more than just price, although it seems even that showstopper is conveniently ignored here. It’s also about functionality, residuals and a product capable of meeting the needs of the majority. The EV fails on all those counts.
DonkeyApple said:
Range isn't an issue for a significant number of car owners. Average commute by car is less than 9 miles. Just study the Govt data on social and business car usage, I found it very revealing as it really does show that very, very few people in the UK travel on a daily basis in excess of the range of the crappest EV.
Incorrect, your ‘significant’ should read ‘insignificant’. Range is an issue for a hugely significant number of car owners. It’s why EVs don’t sell. They need a vehicle that can do more than just a commute. Only 5000 EVs sold in the last 3 years in the UK. A pathetic 1666 per year compared to total UK sales of about 2,000,000 per year. Reality check. DonkeyApple said:
EV purchase prices have already fallen to be close to their comparable ICE product, as can be seen with the i3 pricing v 120D pricing. Quite a significant fall in just a couple of years. Trend is down.
Incorrect. The i3 is significantly more expensive than a 120D regarding purchase price. Differential will further increase as Govt purchase grants taper off. A VW e-Up is nearly 3 times more expensive than its VW Up ICE counterpart. DonkeyApple said:
REX will easily outsell EV for first few years and primarily because of the mis perception regarding personal daily driven distance and overall weekly useage etc. So, one can expect the ratio to shift over time as the market begins to understand its own useage.
The REX sells because it offers the flexibility the EV doesn’t. The same principle applies to Hybrids and sales growth is accelerating in that segment. Buyers are indicating they don’t want to commit to a one trick EV pony. DonkeyApple said:
Residuals are obviously going to remain an issue until a product such as the i3 (if it manages to do so) sells in sufficient numbers so as to be able to define a credible market. Also, the subsidies which are available to new buyers but not to used will also be a negative factor, as are all subsidies, but these will be phased out.
Fair point, but the i3 is not going to be a significant enough player in the EV market to shift overall perceptions and trends. One vehicle type in the global market isn’t going to shift market trends, particularly when the EV i3 brings nothing new to the market other than a boutique brand image. The same limitations apply. DonkeyApple said:
The reality, whether you like it or not, is that for a very significant number of UK car users the concept of an EV is better than ICE until you factor in one primary and very significant detail and that is the initial cost of purchase. So, as far as I am concerned the jury is only out on the product based on whether market forces, competition and volumes contrice to lower prices.
Incorrect as you are confusing significant with insignificant again, unless you deem about 0.12% EV market sales as significant. A strange interpretation. The jury is out because the EV issue is about more than just price, although it seems even that showstopper is conveniently ignored here. It’s also about functionality, residuals and a product capable of meeting the needs of the majority. The EV fails on all those counts.
Technomatt said:
You may be surprised to learn that the average age of cars in Europe is about 8 years old and the USA about 11 years old. In developing nations, a much older average.
An 8 year battery life kiss of death for an EV. The dismal residuals are there for a reason.
Ffs idea not an 8 year battery life. Its guaranteed for 8 years. The same rubbish was spouted when the Prius came out. They're all still on their first battery. When you buy a washing machine with a 1 year guarantee do you expect it to be useless after 1 year. No. The reason they givean 8 year warranty on the battery is to provide some assurance it will last AT LEAST that long with no cost to you if it doesn't. Maybe they should just do the 3 years to avoid confusion? An 8 year battery life kiss of death for an EV. The dismal residuals are there for a reason.
In 8 years time you can also expect to get they £10000 battery for £5000 (or less) Which is still a non issue as its better than having to shell out £1800 a year in fuel duty. Sorry I mean fuel.
You might if you wanted to, upgrade before 8 years if you find that you can get a 100kwh pack for a decent price rather than buying a whole new car.
Can we have Matts superior knowledge here please
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
It is a perfect thread to rant about how electric cars destroy the world
http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...
It is a perfect thread to rant about how electric cars destroy the world
Technomatt said:
While I'm on a roll and just to correct a few more untruths (again):
The jury is out because the EV issue is about more than just price, although it seems even that showstopper is conveniently ignored here. It’s also about functionality, residuals and a product capable of meeting the needs of the majority. The EV fails on all those counts.
How many miles a day do you think that the average UK worker commutes by car?DonkeyApple said:
Range isn't an issue for a significant number of car owners. Average commute by car is less than 9 miles. Just study the Govt data on social and business car usage, I found it very revealing as it really does show that very, very few people in the UK travel on a daily basis in excess of the range of the crappest EV.
Incorrect, your ‘significant’ should read ‘insignificant’. Range is an issue for a hugely significant number of car owners. It’s why EVs don’t sell. They need a vehicle that can do more than just a commute. Only 5000 EVs sold in the last 3 years in the UK. A pathetic 1666 per year compared to total UK sales of about 2,000,000 per year. Reality check. DonkeyApple said:
EV purchase prices have already fallen to be close to their comparable ICE product, as can be seen with the i3 pricing v 120D pricing. Quite a significant fall in just a couple of years. Trend is down.
Incorrect. The i3 is significantly more expensive than a 120D regarding purchase price. Differential will further increase as Govt purchase grants taper off. A VW e-Up is nearly 3 times more expensive than its VW Up ICE counterpart. DonkeyApple said:
REX will easily outsell EV for first few years and primarily because of the mis perception regarding personal daily driven distance and overall weekly useage etc. So, one can expect the ratio to shift over time as the market begins to understand its own useage.
The REX sells because it offers the flexibility the EV doesn’t. The same principle applies to Hybrids and sales growth is accelerating in that segment. Buyers are indicating they don’t want to commit to a one trick EV pony. DonkeyApple said:
Residuals are obviously going to remain an issue until a product such as the i3 (if it manages to do so) sells in sufficient numbers so as to be able to define a credible market. Also, the subsidies which are available to new buyers but not to used will also be a negative factor, as are all subsidies, but these will be phased out.
Fair point, but the i3 is not going to be a significant enough player in the EV market to shift overall perceptions and trends. One vehicle type in the global market isn’t going to shift market trends, particularly when the EV i3 brings nothing new to the market other than a boutique brand image. The same limitations apply. DonkeyApple said:
The reality, whether you like it or not, is that for a very significant number of UK car users the concept of an EV is better than ICE until you factor in one primary and very significant detail and that is the initial cost of purchase. So, as far as I am concerned the jury is only out on the product based on whether market forces, competition and volumes contrice to lower prices.
Incorrect as you are confusing significant with insignificant again, unless you deem about 0.12% EV market sales as significant. A strange interpretation. The jury is out because the EV issue is about more than just price, although it seems even that showstopper is conveniently ignored here. It’s also about functionality, residuals and a product capable of meeting the needs of the majority. The EV fails on all those counts.
Now, bear in mind that the average person has one job and the average commute by car is less than 9 miles.
How many miles a day do you think the average driver covers going to the shops or out socially? Bearing in mind that 90% of the UK population live in an urban environment.
For the average UK car user a vehicle with a 100 mile range is overkill.
Range is not an issue. It's people's perception of their daily range that is. Hence why people are paying up for products like REx etc.
And the other matters have been covered before under the concept of early adopting.
Oh, and you are confusing the words 'concept of an EV'. Hence why much of your post was pointless.
DonkeyApple said:
How many miles a day do you think that the average UK worker commutes by car?
Now, bear in mind that the average person has one job and the average commute by car is less than 9 miles.
How many miles a day do you think the average driver covers going to the shops or out socially? Bearing in mind that 90% of the UK population live in an urban environment.
For the average UK car user a vehicle with a 100 mile range is overkill.
Range is not an issue. It's people's perception of their daily range that is. Hence why people are paying up for products like REx etc.
And the other matters have been covered before under the concept of early adopting.
Oh, and you are confusing the words 'concept of an EV'. Hence why much of your post was pointless.
People’s lives involve more than just commuting. Now, bear in mind that the average person has one job and the average commute by car is less than 9 miles.
How many miles a day do you think the average driver covers going to the shops or out socially? Bearing in mind that 90% of the UK population live in an urban environment.
For the average UK car user a vehicle with a 100 mile range is overkill.
Range is not an issue. It's people's perception of their daily range that is. Hence why people are paying up for products like REx etc.
And the other matters have been covered before under the concept of early adopting.
Oh, and you are confusing the words 'concept of an EV'. Hence why much of your post was pointless.
They also see all those inherent EV disadvantages.
You obviously find it hard to understand why all that consumer 'commuting potential' is not translating into sales.
Technomatt said:
People’s lives involve more than just commuting.
They also see all those inherent EV disadvantages.
You obviously find it hard to understand why all that consumer 'commuting potential' is not translating into sales.
Nope. They also see all those inherent EV disadvantages.
You obviously find it hard to understand why all that consumer 'commuting potential' is not translating into sales.
You are saying that the majority of people in the UK drive more than 100 miles a day, every day?
No. Of course not. Hardly any UK drivers do. That's why it is so obviously not actually about range.
You can bang on about range all you like but it's a stupid argument.
It boils down to money and perception. And guess what, they are getting cheaper and more widespread. If they manage to reach the point that they are cheaper to buy than an equivalent ICE then that's it, they're here to stay as more than an interesting niche.
But one thing you need to spend just a couple of minutes thinking through is that range is not the issue.
Technomatt said:
Max_Torque said:
Max_Torque said:
You still haven't told us what you do for a living matt?
Still waiting...........TransverseTight said:
Technomatt said:
You may be surprised to learn that the average age of cars in Europe is about 8 years old and the USA about 11 years old. In developing nations, a much older average.
An 8 year battery life kiss of death for an EV. The dismal residuals are there for a reason.
Ffs idea not an 8 year battery life. Its guaranteed for 8 years. The same rubbish was spouted when the Prius came out. They're all still on their first battery. When you buy a washing machine with a 1 year guarantee do you expect it to be useless after 1 year. No. The reason they givean 8 year warranty on the battery is to provide some assurance it will last AT LEAST that long with no cost to you if it doesn't. Maybe they should just do the 3 years to avoid confusion? An 8 year battery life kiss of death for an EV. The dismal residuals are there for a reason.
In 8 years time you can also expect to get they £10000 battery for £5000 (or less) Which is still a non issue as its better than having to shell out £1800 a year in fuel duty. Sorry I mean fuel.
You might if you wanted to, upgrade before 8 years if you find that you can get a 100kwh pack for a decent price rather than buying a whole new car.
You do know the Prius and i3 batteries are completely different. One is an NiMh and the other a Li-ion.
Even a projected £5000 battery replacement cost at an 8 year point is a residual killer.
Max_Torque said:
Technomatt said:
Max_Torque said:
Max_Torque said:
You still haven't told us what you do for a living matt?
Still waiting...........Where was my quote?: "EV's are a complete failure and will never be practical mass transport"
I'd like to see your authoritative views on how EVs will become 'practical mass transport' for the trillions of daily tonnage/millions of people moved around the globe. Crack on.
Technomatt said:
Max_Torque said:
Technomatt said:
Max_Torque said:
Max_Torque said:
You still haven't told us what you do for a living matt?
Still waiting...........
Max_Torque said:
Technomatt said:
Max_Torque said:
Technomatt said:
Max_Torque said:
Max_Torque said:
You still haven't told us what you do for a living matt?
Still waiting...........Technomatt said:
What happens after the 8 year i3 warranty period for the EV and REX?
You do know the Prius and i3 batteries are completely different. One is an NiMh and the other a Li-ion.
Even a projected £5000 battery replacement cost at an 8 year point is a residual killer.
maybe £2,200 at current prices would be better then. i originally just halved your figure which was proably the first 5 digit number which came into your head.You do know the Prius and i3 batteries are completely different. One is an NiMh and the other a Li-ion.
Even a projected £5000 battery replacement cost at an 8 year point is a residual killer.
tesla are quoting usd $10,000 for a replacement 60kwh pack or $12,000 for the 85kwh.
Thats about £111/kWh based on 1.5 usd to gbp.
So the 22kwh in the bmw would work out at £2,200ish assuming theres not much economy of scale once you get past the first 10kw and are simply buying more cells.
TransverseTight said:
Technomatt said:
What happens after the 8 year i3 warranty period for the EV and REX?
You do know the Prius and i3 batteries are completely different. One is an NiMh and the other a Li-ion.
Even a projected £5000 battery replacement cost at an 8 year point is a residual killer.
maybe £2,200 at current prices would be better then. i originally just halved your figure which was proably the first 5 digit number which came into your head.You do know the Prius and i3 batteries are completely different. One is an NiMh and the other a Li-ion.
Even a projected £5000 battery replacement cost at an 8 year point is a residual killer.
tesla are quoting usd $10,000 for a replacement 60kwh pack or $12,000 for the 85kwh.
Thats about £111/kWh based on 1.5 usd to gbp.
So the 22kwh in the bmw would work out at £2,200ish assuming theres not much economy of scale once you get past the first 10kw and are simply buying more cells.
Tesla is charging $12000 for the pre-paid battery option which is based on their prediction of what the future cost to change will be in 8+ years time.
Of course, Tesla has a vested interest in favourable predictions so using their data to try and set an industry standard battery replacement cost is problematic.
Also, Tesla has a quick swop, modular battery replacement strategy, the i3 doesn’t. Battery pack and control module standardisation is also a big industry concern and will keep battery replacement cost high.
EV manufacturers are being deliberately guarded over these issues..... because they know it is a major and expensive issue downstream and would rather not talk about it.
Unfortunately for them, it’s already hammering residuals and you may see the 8+ year old i3, ZOE, Leaf etc all being worthless.
McWigglebum4th said:
Technomatt said:
Unfortunately for them, it’s already hammering residuals and you may see the 8+ year old i3, ZOE, Leaf etc all being worthless.
Meanwhile all fossil fueled cars are worth exactly the same as a brand new one
Any nobody's worried about swirl flaps breaking off and lunching the engine, HPFP giving up at great expense, injectors going at potentially ruinous expense, it's all gravy baby!
oh, hang on... nope, the car is basically worthless after 10 years. ho hum.
TransverseTight said:
maybe £2,200 at current prices would be better then. i originally just halved your figure which was proably the first 5 digit number which came into your head.
tesla are quoting usd $10,000 for a replacement 60kwh pack or $12,000 for the 85kwh.
Thats about £111/kWh based on 1.5 usd to gbp.
So the 22kwh in the bmw would work out at £2,200ish assuming theres not much economy of scale once you get past the first 10kw and are simply buying more cells.
Current battery power packs are the real issue of EVs. tesla are quoting usd $10,000 for a replacement 60kwh pack or $12,000 for the 85kwh.
Thats about £111/kWh based on 1.5 usd to gbp.
So the 22kwh in the bmw would work out at £2,200ish assuming theres not much economy of scale once you get past the first 10kw and are simply buying more cells.
Not how they work as they deliver enough range for the majority of daily car usage but in their costs.
Their current cost makes an EV dearer to buy than it needs to be and then must be replaced at a date in the future when the typical used buyer isn't the type of person who will spend several thousand pounds.
Companies have tried several approaches so far from lease deals to insurance packages. Neither seem ideal to me.
If I were buying an EV I would do so on a lease deal so that it wasn't my issue and I locked in an agreed resale.
But, the battery cost issue is why I am not convinced EVs should follow the conventional car route. What I mean by this is that if we assume a useable battery life of 10 years (2 more than BMW's warranty seems about where they are betting) then a normal steel ICE car has depreciated to the low thousands and likewise the EV but the ICE can eke out many more years of use in likelihood. The EV can't at this point.
So, if an EV is made of steel etc then you also have a shell that will be decaying etc. with something like the i3 surely the solution to the fact that the cost of replacement batteries will stop traditional used car buyers is to not bother catering for the typical used car buyer. Surely the logic lies in recycling the 8+ year old vehicle and reselling it as a recon to the new car buyer wanting a lower price level? Or you buy your used i3 for next to nothing and take out a lease in a new battery pack.
Of course, battery costs are falling around 10-15% a year on average and capacities are improving at a quicker rate so in all likelihood the battery pack in 8 years that is needed to replace today's and give the same power will be up to half the size and cheaper. And on top of that the whole concept of the battery will evolve and superior products will sit in the big void where our current tech used to sit. But this cannot be quantified or relied on and so can't form any part of credible values today.
The way that batteries are paid for and their cost is really the core hurdle for full EVs to overcome at present.
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