Driverless cars in the UK
Discussion
272BHP said:
Computer controlled cars will be incredibly orderly, neatly filing behind each over and peeling off at junctions seamlessly, it will be very impressive but totally joyless.
I get no joy from driving my mondeo. It is a tool of the job. It takes me to work, B&Q, the airport etc. this weekend it hauling the family to brighton. i'd much rather it drove its self.I do my fun driving in the elise.
Kawasicki said:
Also....
Can you point me to the hugely expensive self-driving production car that is on sale now?
This, like every other piece of tech, will first be introduced on expensive niche (PH worthy!)cars...then I estimate it will take between 5-15 years to be introduced on the volume models.
This isn't any old piece of tech though, as an add-on or development of current tech. Well it is but it's also a possible game changer. Plus when it seems to be Google driving(!) it they have no model range so that concept is out the window.Can you point me to the hugely expensive self-driving production car that is on sale now?
This, like every other piece of tech, will first be introduced on expensive niche (PH worthy!)cars...then I estimate it will take between 5-15 years to be introduced on the volume models.
AFAIK electric tech stared with small (albeit expensive) cars, unlike the S-Class trickle down effect you allude to. I think these will work on the same principle. Let's be honest when we have a search engine developing cars any idea of precedent is gone.
Google isn't yet 20 years old but has a market cap of $400bn. They and the internet in general have changed the way we do almost everything. You think they can't change our driving habits in 15?
Kawasicki said:
"UK's vehicle stock is quite young, in 10 - 15 years most cars will be self driving"
Would you like to make a bet that in 12.5 years most cars on UK roads will be autonomous?
In 12.5 years time you will have to buy 'boutique' cars if you want one without self driving ability. I'm not sure if by then we will have enforced self drive, or even required ability, but I suspect that it will be on almost every car sold.Would you like to make a bet that in 12.5 years most cars on UK roads will be autonomous?
The major manufacturers dont care if your driving or if its a computer, if they dont have a good self drive system they can just licence one from google. Its done tech. Tech gets cheap and popular almost overnight.
Couple this with the electric vehicle becoming practical for most city commutes you can have startups making electric self drive cars a lot cheaper than internal combustion cars.
Taken to the next level - cars as a service - you use big data and meshed systems to provide a fast efficient, clean urban transport system. Does it matter that the car you go to work in isnt yours? OK some people (reps, tradies etc) will still need their own transport. Most 9-5 workers dont, not when they can have a car in almost no time.
The interesting thing is how the tax and servicing will work out.
RobDickinson said:
In 12.5 years time you will have to buy 'boutique' cars if you want one without self driving ability. I'm not sure if by then we will have enforced self drive, or even required ability, but I suspect that it will be on almost every car sold.
The major manufacturers dont care if your driving or if its a computer, if they dont have a good self drive system they can just licence one from google. Its done tech. Tech gets cheap and popular almost overnight.
Couple this with the electric vehicle becoming practical for most city commutes you can have startups making electric self drive cars a lot cheaper than internal combustion cars.
Taken to the next level - cars as a service - you use big data and meshed systems to provide a fast efficient, clean urban transport system. Does it matter that the car you go to work in isnt yours? OK some people (reps, tradies etc) will still need their own transport. Most 9-5 workers dont, not when they can have a car in almost no time.
The interesting thing is how the tax and servicing will work out.
Have you seen how many mechanics it takes to inspect/service the tesla? Tesla claim to be able to remote connect to your car and read all the sensor data logs for any abnormalities and remote upgrade the software, the service bay consists of a lap top and a few tools. There's very little to service on an electric car and they claim they can do most of it remotely. Think how much data a formula1 car monitors in terms of heat, vibration etcThe major manufacturers dont care if your driving or if its a computer, if they dont have a good self drive system they can just licence one from google. Its done tech. Tech gets cheap and popular almost overnight.
Couple this with the electric vehicle becoming practical for most city commutes you can have startups making electric self drive cars a lot cheaper than internal combustion cars.
Taken to the next level - cars as a service - you use big data and meshed systems to provide a fast efficient, clean urban transport system. Does it matter that the car you go to work in isnt yours? OK some people (reps, tradies etc) will still need their own transport. Most 9-5 workers dont, not when they can have a car in almost no time.
The interesting thing is how the tax and servicing will work out.
RobDickinson said:
Kawasicki said:
"UK's vehicle stock is quite young, in 10 - 15 years most cars will be self driving"
Would you like to make a bet that in 12.5 years most cars on UK roads will be autonomous?
In 12.5 years time you will have to buy 'boutique' cars if you want one without self driving ability. I'm not sure if by then we will have enforced self drive, or even required ability, but I suspect that it will be on almost every car sold.Would you like to make a bet that in 12.5 years most cars on UK roads will be autonomous?
The major manufacturers dont care if your driving or if its a computer, if they dont have a good self drive system they can just licence one from google. Its done tech. Tech gets cheap and popular almost overnight.
Couple this with the electric vehicle becoming practical for most city commutes you can have startups making electric self drive cars a lot cheaper than internal combustion cars.
Taken to the next level - cars as a service - you use big data and meshed systems to provide a fast efficient, clean urban transport system. Does it matter that the car you go to work in isnt yours? OK some people (reps, tradies etc) will still need their own transport. Most 9-5 workers dont, not when they can have a car in almost no time.
The interesting thing is how the tax and servicing will work out.
Where are all these self driving cars being developed? By whom?
Suppliers can't even do a plug and play auto wiper function in cars, yet you think that plug and play autonomous control is just around the corner. These Google people are very bright.
The future is so exciting...
for the naive.
RobDickinson said:
In 12.5 years time you will have to buy 'boutique' cars if you want one without self driving ability. I'm not sure if by then we will have enforced self drive, or even required ability, but I suspect that it will be on almost every car sold.
I think you're being very optimistic with your timing. There's not a chance that by the end of 2026 you'll have to place a special order to buy a car that doesn't drive itself. Self driving cars aren't going to be commonplace any time soon.It wasn't that long ago we were predicted to have flying cars and hoverboards by 21st October 2015.
Kawasicki said:
Where are all these self driving cars being developed? By whom?
You know that company building the cars? Google? They also do search...http://www.theguardian.com/technology/gallery/2014...
So that's Google, Audi, Toyota, Ford, Nissan, BMW and Lexus to start with. Not all fully automated but that's where they're going. When you consider the amount of resources being piled into this I don't see how anyone can't think it's going to happen. And happen sooner than we might think.
98elise said:
Googles cars have covered 750k automated miles on public roads without incident. The cars have been involved in accidents, but only when they were being driven by a human (they have full normal controls).
If something major fails, the car will simply stop safely.
Self driving cars don't need to be perfect, they just need to be better then humans. ABS, ESP etc is not perfect, but its better than 99% of the population.
You're making the same statistical error they make when they trial a 20mph speed limit.If something major fails, the car will simply stop safely.
Self driving cars don't need to be perfect, they just need to be better then humans. ABS, ESP etc is not perfect, but its better than 99% of the population.
Regardless, it will be a disaster in the UK, because you can't factor out moronic people (and the UK has an above average share).
Mr GrimNasty said:
You're making the same statistical error they make when they trial a 20mph speed limit.
Regardless, it will be a disaster in the UK, because you can't factor out moronic people (and the UK has an above average share).
Did you really write both those sentences without any sense of irony? Pointing out a "statistical error" and then going on to use a completely made-up statistic as your argument?Regardless, it will be a disaster in the UK, because you can't factor out moronic people (and the UK has an above average share).
technodup said:
Kawasicki said:
Where are all these self driving cars being developed? By whom?
You know that company building the cars? Google? They also do search...http://www.theguardian.com/technology/gallery/2014...
So that's Google, Audi, Toyota, Ford, Nissan, BMW and Lexus to start with. Not all fully automated but that's where they're going. When you consider the amount of resources being piled into this I don't see how anyone can't think it's going to happen. And happen sooner than we might think.
I am contesting the delusion that they will make up the majority of cars on UK roads within 15 years. I work in automotive development, as do about 80% of my friends. Don't you think it is a little bit unusual that NONE of them think that volume autonomous cars are imminent. In order for them to be on sale within 10 years at least some of us should be working on them now, and NONE of us are. Yes we work on parts of the tech, but there are no volume programs in development. Hell, even infotainment systems seem to cause huge quality issues...and that's just a simple computer in a car. People who expect this stuff is imminent need to stop believing the hype and look for actual evidence.
Kawasicki said:
I'm not arguing that we are heading towards fully autonomous cars. That's obvious.
I am contesting the delusion that they will make up the majority of cars on UK roads within 15 years. I work in automotive development, as do about 80% of my friends. Don't you think it is a little bit unusual that NONE of them think that volume autonomous cars are imminent. In order for them to be on sale within 10 years at least some of us should be working on them now, and NONE of us are. Yes we work on parts of the tech, but there are no volume programs in development. Hell, even infotainment systems seem to cause huge quality issues...and that's just a simple computer in a car. People who expect this stuff is imminent need to stop believing the hype and look for actual evidence.
Are you familiar with the term technological lock-in? That's you that is. I'd agree that it's ludicrous to think of a majority of automated cars in 15 years, but they will probably make up a significant proportion, particularly in areas where there are savings to be made like taxis(no cabbie, no wage to pay) and perhaps commercial travellers(they can work en-route rather than waste time driving, lower insurance premiums due to no gash driving).I am contesting the delusion that they will make up the majority of cars on UK roads within 15 years. I work in automotive development, as do about 80% of my friends. Don't you think it is a little bit unusual that NONE of them think that volume autonomous cars are imminent. In order for them to be on sale within 10 years at least some of us should be working on them now, and NONE of us are. Yes we work on parts of the tech, but there are no volume programs in development. Hell, even infotainment systems seem to cause huge quality issues...and that's just a simple computer in a car. People who expect this stuff is imminent need to stop believing the hype and look for actual evidence.
hidetheelephants said:
Are you familiar with the term technological lock-in? That's you that is. I'd agree that it's ludicrous to think of a majority of automated cars in 15 years, but they will probably make up a significant proportion, particularly in areas where there are savings to be made like taxis(no cabbie, no wage to pay) and perhaps commercial travellers(they can work en-route rather than waste time driving, lower insurance premiums due to no gash driving).
I don't agree with the connection to tech lock-in, though I do see your point. You are agreeing with my point about it not being volume ready within 15 years anyway! You mention significant proportions, if there are just 100 cars operating in the UK autonomously by 2020 that will be significant, but it is still a very small number. I know the tech is coming, I do tests for people developing the tech, I'm working to make it better, but I do not agree that it's "all sorted" and "ready to roll"...I'm a conservative engineer, and the proof will be those significant number of vehicles doing a better job than typical drivers in the UK. A little bit of modesty is required, is that tech lock-in?
Kawasicki said:
I don't agree with the connection to tech lock-in, though I do see your point. You are agreeing with my point about it not being volume ready within 15 years anyway! You mention significant proportions, if there are just 100 cars operating in the UK autonomously by 2020 that will be significant, but it is still a very small number. I know the tech is coming, I do tests for people developing the tech, I'm working to make it better, but I do not agree that it's "all sorted" and "ready to roll"...I'm a conservative engineer, and the proof will be those significant number of vehicles doing a better job than typical drivers in the UK. A little bit of modesty is required, is that tech lock-in?
Ironically your killing the enjoyment of driving, it's a sad day for me when automated electric/ hybrid cars are driving around with no soul...people born in 2000s won't understand what it would be like driving and listening to a v8 as you drive along the country roads the noise, feeling and freedom it brings. Instead it will be a simple bland and boring as people sit in their car playing on their ipad.Kawasicki said:
I'm not arguing that we are heading towards fully autonomous cars. That's obvious.
I am contesting the delusion that they will make up the majority of cars on UK roads within 15 years. I work in automotive development, as do about 80% of my friends. Don't you think it is a little bit unusual that NONE of them think that volume autonomous cars are imminent. In order for them to be on sale within 10 years at least some of us should be working on them now, and NONE of us are. Yes we work on parts of the tech, but there are no volume programs in development. Hell, even infotainment systems seem to cause huge quality issues...and that's just a simple computer in a car. People who expect this stuff is imminent need to stop believing the hype and look for actual evidence.
Not wishing to argue, but I went to a road safety summit a few month ago, attended by top bods from the AA, the minster for transport, shadow minster for transport and the 'head of road safety for the EU' along with several organisations/research centres with a link to transport/road safety.I am contesting the delusion that they will make up the majority of cars on UK roads within 15 years. I work in automotive development, as do about 80% of my friends. Don't you think it is a little bit unusual that NONE of them think that volume autonomous cars are imminent. In order for them to be on sale within 10 years at least some of us should be working on them now, and NONE of us are. Yes we work on parts of the tech, but there are no volume programs in development. Hell, even infotainment systems seem to cause huge quality issues...and that's just a simple computer in a car. People who expect this stuff is imminent need to stop believing the hype and look for actual evidence.
Anyway, long story short, they anticipate driver-less cars in the UK in about 6 years time, give or take a year.
TLandCruiser said:
Ironically your killing the enjoyment of driving, it's a sad day for me when automated electric/ hybrid cars are driving around with no soul...people born in 2000s won't understand what it would be like driving and listening to a v8 as you drive along the country roads the noise, feeling and freedom it brings. Instead it will be a simple bland and boring as people sit in their car playing on their ipad.
Sadly I feel you're right. I just wonder what cash cow the government will turn to next under the pretence of safety and the environment once all the fast cars and bikes are banned98elise said:
defblade said:
2 problems here for me:
1) I can't help but remember Volvo's demonstration of their automatic braking system
2) My 13 year old car has a series of problems with its electrics, and it's not alone. There are plenty of tales, just on here even, of new cars with technology faults. Are these cars really going to be working properly (ie, safely) in 13 years time? 10 years? 8? 5? Will there be an expiry date on them, beyond which the manufacturers won't guarantee them working correctly?
Googles cars have covered 750k automated miles on public roads without incident. The cars have been involved in accidents, but only when they were being driven by a human (they have full normal controls).1) I can't help but remember Volvo's demonstration of their automatic braking system
2) My 13 year old car has a series of problems with its electrics, and it's not alone. There are plenty of tales, just on here even, of new cars with technology faults. Are these cars really going to be working properly (ie, safely) in 13 years time? 10 years? 8? 5? Will there be an expiry date on them, beyond which the manufacturers won't guarantee them working correctly?
If something major fails, the car will simply stop safely.
Self driving cars don't need to be perfect, they just need to be better then humans. ABS, ESP etc is not perfect, but its better than 99% of the population.
It's great to know that Google's hand-created-from-the-finest-ingredients cars have clocked up so many miles (altough I'm guessing that's across a fleet, not one single car!) without problem. I'm still not sure that slapped-together-as-cheap-as-we-can-get-away-wtih-it mass market cars will show a similar level of reliability, especially as they age and warranties expire.
I'm spending too much time at the moment fixing a myriad of small electrical problems on my over-complicated-for-the-sake-of-it E46* to imagine that an even more complicted car would be OK.
And, I think that the cars actually would have to be (very, very, near) perfect, both from the point of view of someone who gets in shuts the door and puts their trust in arriving at the other end in one piece; and for manufacturers keen to stay in business between court cases and damaged reputations. I believe there is a special horror in not being "in control" when traveling - everyone believes they drive well and could cope with an emergency; similarly those in the same car, possibly same bus/coach, are close enough and trusting enough of the driver to feel reassured. However once you get to maybe trains and certainly planes, the idea of being strapped into a box you have no control over starts to really get to people. I think rollercoasters play on this as much as the speed/turns/etc - the lack of control is scarey itself, even when you "know" it's very safe. And this fear would have to be overcome and then never be seen to be realised or the Daily Mail will kill the whole thing before it has really got started.
*Over-complicated electrical failures:
- new radiator fan as the infinitely variable speed control packed up (what's wrong with 1 or 2 speeds)
- driver's door doesn't know if it's open or not as the Hall Effect sensor buried in the latch has failed (what's wrong with a pin switch to ground)
- electric tailgate glass release button started randomly opening the glass (fixed glass would be fine)
- boot release microswitch stuck, stopping boot from opening normally (what's wrong with a manual latch - at least they normally get hard to use giving you a chance to WD40 them before they fail)
- ABS pump failed; the cost of a new one would have written the car off, so 2nd hand installed but has the wrong software for my car so traction inoperative (traction useless on this car anyway (not enough power!) and never needed it on previous more powerful E36)
- airbag sensor failed in passenger seat, switching off the whole system (Ok, airbags I get, but making whether it knows a passenger is there or not switch the sytem off... I'd rather it fired all of them, just in case)
- 2nd key remote doesn't work as it hadn't been inductively charged by the car for some time before I bought it even (what's wrong with batteries, if you have to have remote locking at all).
And that's without starting on the mechanicals...
defblade said:
*Over-complicated electrical failures:
- new radiator fan as the infinitely variable speed control packed up (what's wrong with 1 or 2 speeds)
- driver's door doesn't know if it's open or not as the Hall Effect sensor buried in the latch has failed (what's wrong with a pin switch to ground)
- electric tailgate glass release button started randomly opening the glass (fixed glass would be fine)
- boot release microswitch stuck, stopping boot from opening normally (what's wrong with a manual latch - at least they normally get hard to use giving you a chance to WD40 them before they fail)
- ABS pump failed; the cost of a new one would have written the car off, so 2nd hand installed but has the wrong software for my car so traction inoperative (traction useless on this car anyway (not enough power!) and never needed it on previous more powerful E36)
- airbag sensor failed in passenger seat, switching off the whole system (Ok, airbags I get, but making whether it knows a passenger is there or not switch the sytem off... I'd rather it fired all of them, just in case)
- 2nd key remote doesn't work as it hadn't been inductively charged by the car for some time before I bought it even (what's wrong with batteries, if you have to have remote locking at all).
And that's without starting on the mechanicals...
How many of those had a secondary or tertiary system that also failed? Because that's the sort of thing we'd be looking at. It won't be a system where a single component failure will stop the car driving as it should. It might stop you starting another autonomous journey until it's been fixed. But the car would remain operational.- new radiator fan as the infinitely variable speed control packed up (what's wrong with 1 or 2 speeds)
- driver's door doesn't know if it's open or not as the Hall Effect sensor buried in the latch has failed (what's wrong with a pin switch to ground)
- electric tailgate glass release button started randomly opening the glass (fixed glass would be fine)
- boot release microswitch stuck, stopping boot from opening normally (what's wrong with a manual latch - at least they normally get hard to use giving you a chance to WD40 them before they fail)
- ABS pump failed; the cost of a new one would have written the car off, so 2nd hand installed but has the wrong software for my car so traction inoperative (traction useless on this car anyway (not enough power!) and never needed it on previous more powerful E36)
- airbag sensor failed in passenger seat, switching off the whole system (Ok, airbags I get, but making whether it knows a passenger is there or not switch the sytem off... I'd rather it fired all of them, just in case)
- 2nd key remote doesn't work as it hadn't been inductively charged by the car for some time before I bought it even (what's wrong with batteries, if you have to have remote locking at all).
And that's without starting on the mechanicals...
None of your failures have made the car unsafe to operate and as such are made without regard to failure (other than avoiding warranty liability and damage to the reputation of the brand).
The simplistic versions of this already happen with cars noticing a brake light failure and substituting the fog light in the same light block, and brakes having 2 circuits operating on diagonal wheels.
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