So then...This "future classic" bubble?
Discussion
I'm sure most people have noticed, the price of anything reasonably interesting is going absolutly mental at the moment.
From the old school hot hatches like the 205Gti, Escort Cossie etc, through to E46 M3 CSLs, 911 of all descriptions air cooled, and the water cooled turbos, GT2/3, Ferrari 355s & everything in between , prices seem to be climbing at an absurd rate. Cars that were 40k before Xmas are now marked up at 75k!
How long can the market stand this? It's crazy but people are jumping on the bandwagon, which is a real shame as most of the cars that people aspire to own & drive will end up being stuck in a garage & never used, because people are scared of putting miles on & devaluing them.
From the old school hot hatches like the 205Gti, Escort Cossie etc, through to E46 M3 CSLs, 911 of all descriptions air cooled, and the water cooled turbos, GT2/3, Ferrari 355s & everything in between , prices seem to be climbing at an absurd rate. Cars that were 40k before Xmas are now marked up at 75k!
How long can the market stand this? It's crazy but people are jumping on the bandwagon, which is a real shame as most of the cars that people aspire to own & drive will end up being stuck in a garage & never used, because people are scared of putting miles on & devaluing them.
Usual caveat is that an advertised price is not a selling price and the 'classic', and particularly the 'modern / future classic' markets are full of chancers.
Values are on the rise across the board, can I see the 'bubble' bursting and values falling to what they were1,3,5 years ago though? Nah.
Values are on the rise across the board, can I see the 'bubble' bursting and values falling to what they were1,3,5 years ago though? Nah.
There are always winners and losers in these bubbles. The real winners typically being those who bought well before the bubble and got lucky. Plenty of speculators turn up, and the bubble is stretched to bursting. It'll happen again, as it has happened before. I think Porsches will be a winner this time around, because they've been trendy in two bubbles with a big fall off in between. I suspect people will want to hang onto them, in expectation of the next bubble!
I'm not sure how much further this bubble can go on. It seems like every day we read about the next exorbitantly priced classic at auction. Surely, we're reaching saturation point now.
I'm not sure how much further this bubble can go on. It seems like every day we read about the next exorbitantly priced classic at auction. Surely, we're reaching saturation point now.
In the late eighties property prices went insane and people looked to other things to invest in. Classic cars were popular, 'mainstream' classic prices went insane and then everyone started buying 'fringe' classics, Jag S Types rather than E Types etc and so the price of more ordinary old cars went mad.
Eventually it all peaked out and collapsed. I recall a Ferrari 512 that changed hands pre collapse for quarter of a million selling for eighty thousand.
Obviously it won't happen again because everyone learns from past mistakes rather than diving blindly into the bandwagon as it hurles toward the cliff edge.
Don't they..?
Eventually it all peaked out and collapsed. I recall a Ferrari 512 that changed hands pre collapse for quarter of a million selling for eighty thousand.
Obviously it won't happen again because everyone learns from past mistakes rather than diving blindly into the bandwagon as it hurles toward the cliff edge.
Don't they..?
It's always the same, lots of available money so people scrabble to buy everything, money disappears or just slows and the bubble starts to collapse, speculators panic and the bubble collapses rapidly as they sell. If you buy a classic because you want it to own and drive then life will go on. If you are relying on it as an investment you will probably be disappointed.
Juber said:
How long is a piece of string
Often it turns out to be shorter than you thought!Very,very few cars appreciate in value once ownership costs and inflation are taken in to account. So if you see the words "car" and "investment" in the same sentence - run away!
Even when cars do appreciate in real terms (1960s Mustangs are a good example right now) prices will collapse as the generation for which they were a childhood dream dies off.
Having followed these cars through 2 recessions now I think I have a feel for the market. I believe we reached the peak of their true value 6 months or so ago, any rise since then is artificial and when interest rates and inflation rise the prices will fall back to that level, there will be no sharp burst, just a slight negative re aligning.
The people coming into the modern classic market recently are the type that also started watching homes under the hammer etc and bought property thinking its easy money, you know the ones, they invested blindly in apartments in Bulgaria etc without a clue and have been stuck with them ever since, by the time they start making programs about such things the smart money has already moved onto the next under the radar investments, its the same now with the cars, the clever ones have cashed in and ploughed the ££££ into something else.
The people coming into the modern classic market recently are the type that also started watching homes under the hammer etc and bought property thinking its easy money, you know the ones, they invested blindly in apartments in Bulgaria etc without a clue and have been stuck with them ever since, by the time they start making programs about such things the smart money has already moved onto the next under the radar investments, its the same now with the cars, the clever ones have cashed in and ploughed the ££££ into something else.
Edited by PAUL500 on Saturday 28th February 11:16
It is quite mad at the moment. I recall not so long back you could pick up a decent Ferrari 328 for £25k. They're £75k now. While I don't doubt that this is an appreciating classic there were over 6,000 them built, so they're hardly in short supply. When the BoE eventually grows a spine and starts cranking interest rates up other investment vehicles will start to recover their appeal and classic cars may well start to slide back towards attainability by folk who actually want to enjoy them.
hora said:
They are only worth what people will pay.
Indeed. It'd be interesting to know what cars actually sold for.hora said:
People are stubborn though. If they think they can get +10k they'll advertise and wait months?
I do wonder if some of the cars I see for sale are simply listed by someone who isn't actually bothered about selling but will sell if they can get silly money, so they advertise it on the basis that someone may pay it, but are happy to keep said car otherwise.rossub said:
It's not the same as the last collapse in prices. The market conditions are different - interest rates at near enough 0% means there are very few alternatives to invest in at the moment.
Or possibly just put off the inevitable a while longer and allow the bubble to grow even bigger. I was thinking this just recently. Years ago Evo had a "best cars for £10k" feature where the Impreza RB5 and Clio V6 were joint winnerz. Goood luck getting a V6 now with your 10k! I notice S1 Elises arent as cheap as they were before, but can't think of why you'd take one over an S2 except as a third car perhaps.
Even the nissan 200sx is reaching parity with the bottom of market 350z, thanks to drifting perhaps.
Even the nissan 200sx is reaching parity with the bottom of market 350z, thanks to drifting perhaps.
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