Classic car bubble?
Discussion
Welshbeef said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Nope.
The take up so far has been very small and where it has many have used the funds to pay of mortgages.
This is frightening too - people close to retirement/retired and still have mortgages. The take up so far has been very small and where it has many have used the funds to pay of mortgages.
But it's still better than their kids who will either never have a mortgage or pay it off and certainly won't have any form of useable pension or savings.
Still, as long as they have the memories of that crap Audi TT and all those nights out, takeaways and extra holidays to keep them warm during their final twenty years of sitting in their own cold urine.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Nope.
The take up so far has been very small and where it has many have used the funds to pay of mortgages.
I have read the exact opposite of this, middle of the summer around 30% of people eligible already had taken out of thier pensions pot, on average £36k and only about 10% of them used any of it to pay down the mortgage. Why on earth would anyone take out money to pay down a mortgage with record low rates.The take up so far has been very small and where it has many have used the funds to pay of mortgages.
ging84 said:
I have read the exact opposite of this, middle of the summer around 30% of people eligible already had taken out of thier pensions pot, on average £36k and only about 10% of them used any of it to pay down the mortgage. Why on earth would anyone take out money to pay down a mortgage with record low rates.
If your total pension pot is only £36k paying down mortgage or anything else for that matter is neither here nor there it' adds up to what at best £1k a year pension... ging84 said:
Welshbeef said:
If your total pension pot is only £36k paying down mortgage or anything else for that matter is neither here nor there it' adds up to what at best £1k a year pension...
No £36k was the average amount people were taking out
ked or those working then will have to man up taxation wise. DonkeyApple said:
Pretty pathetic isn't it. The demographic that has never had it so easy, benefited from low tax, tax reliefs, untaxed pensions, and the obvious asset boom have been living so far beyond their means that they've had to resort to using their pension to pay off their over spending.
But it's still better than their kids who will either never have a mortgage or pay it off and certainly won't have any form of useable pension or savings.
Still, as long as they have the memories of that crap Audi TT and all those nights out, takeaways and extra holidays to keep them warm during their final twenty years of sitting in their own cold urine.
If you're going to sit in your own wee regardless, may as well do it on the state, rather than get shafted one way or another by the state for being good. But it's still better than their kids who will either never have a mortgage or pay it off and certainly won't have any form of useable pension or savings.
Still, as long as they have the memories of that crap Audi TT and all those nights out, takeaways and extra holidays to keep them warm during their final twenty years of sitting in their own cold urine.
There's also the CGT Vs IHT position - should know, but will admit to not paying any attention when I should
.I guess a classic car over a pension pot or let's say expensive watches or pens or cuff links etc are very easy to pass onto another individual.
Just like in a divorce easily hidden/never disclosed to the other and kept in a numbered safety deposit box. Worse happens you have huge wealth off balance sheet so to speak
.
Just like in a divorce easily hidden/never disclosed to the other and kept in a numbered safety deposit box. Worse happens you have huge wealth off balance sheet so to speak
. It's obviously a speculative market, car dealers will claim it is different this time...
Several are claiming the trigger for the crash will be base rate increases, I doubt that, I suspect it will be when the market stops rising for some time, it didn't take a base rate increase to knock a fair chunk off the gold market (in fact it was at a time of significant yield suppression by central banks), when the increases stop, the owners have had their fun, and the desire to own a car that needs expensive maintenance, and isn't increasing in value... well the shine will have faded and they will sell.
And when the "crash" finally comes, I suspect it will be a good thing, reality will have returned and the cars will only be of interest to enthusiasts rather than speculators (hence less demand). There is of course the upside of a bubble, some rot-boxes will have been restored as it is financially viable in a bubble keeping them on the road, otherwise they would have just rusted to nothing.
Several are claiming the trigger for the crash will be base rate increases, I doubt that, I suspect it will be when the market stops rising for some time, it didn't take a base rate increase to knock a fair chunk off the gold market (in fact it was at a time of significant yield suppression by central banks), when the increases stop, the owners have had their fun, and the desire to own a car that needs expensive maintenance, and isn't increasing in value... well the shine will have faded and they will sell.
And when the "crash" finally comes, I suspect it will be a good thing, reality will have returned and the cars will only be of interest to enthusiasts rather than speculators (hence less demand). There is of course the upside of a bubble, some rot-boxes will have been restored as it is financially viable in a bubble keeping them on the road, otherwise they would have just rusted to nothing.
Edited by GrizzlyBear on Sunday 11th October 22:00
GrizzlyBear said:
It's obviously a speculative market, car dealers will claim it is different this time...
I suspect that many claiming the trigger for the crash will be base rate increases, I doubt that, it will be when the market stops rising, it didn't take a base rate increase to knock a fair chunk off the gold market (in fact it was at a time of significant yield suppression by central banks), when the increases stop, the owners have had their fun, and the desire to own a car that needs expensive maintenance, and isn't increasing in value... well the shine will have faded and they will sell.
eh? just no.I suspect that many claiming the trigger for the crash will be base rate increases, I doubt that, it will be when the market stops rising, it didn't take a base rate increase to knock a fair chunk off the gold market (in fact it was at a time of significant yield suppression by central banks), when the increases stop, the owners have had their fun, and the desire to own a car that needs expensive maintenance, and isn't increasing in value... well the shine will have faded and they will sell.
firstly, gold is counter-cyclical and falls when sentiment is positive.
secondly, too many new owners don't even drive or 'enjoy' their cars, they're just investments.
Many possible triggers, but a base rate hike won't help.
Of course it's a bubble, a really big one.
Interest rate rises will not end the bubble.
What will will be something unseen as with every other boom and bust. South sea bubble, tulip mania, railways, 80s car bust, credit crunch etc.
Perhaps something like changes to emissions/taxes, banning of old vehicles on the road or good old property prices falling leading people to sell other assets or just a good old recession.
People forget in 2008/9 you couldn't give cars away.
Cars generate no income and you cannot offset capital losses against capital gains.
Once a few big players move for the exit then it will collapse.
Then it will move up again.
Interest rate rises will not end the bubble.
What will will be something unseen as with every other boom and bust. South sea bubble, tulip mania, railways, 80s car bust, credit crunch etc.
Perhaps something like changes to emissions/taxes, banning of old vehicles on the road or good old property prices falling leading people to sell other assets or just a good old recession.
People forget in 2008/9 you couldn't give cars away.
Cars generate no income and you cannot offset capital losses against capital gains.
Once a few big players move for the exit then it will collapse.
Then it will move up again.
GrizzlyBear said:
It's obviously a speculative market, car dealers will claim it is different this time...
Several are claiming the trigger for the crash will be base rate increases, I doubt that, I suspect it will be when the market stops rising for some time, it didn't take a base rate increase to knock a fair chunk off the gold market (in fact it was at a time of significant yield suppression by central banks), when the increases stop, the owners have had their fun, and the desire to own a car that needs expensive maintenance, and isn't increasing in value... well the shine will have faded and they will sell.
And when the "crash" finally comes, I suspect it will be a good thing, reality will have returned and the cars will only be of interest to enthusiasts rather than speculators (hence less demand). There is of course the upside of a bubble, some rot-boxes will have been restored as it is financially viable in a bubble keeping them on the road, otherwise they would have just rusted to nothing.
Spot OnSeveral are claiming the trigger for the crash will be base rate increases, I doubt that, I suspect it will be when the market stops rising for some time, it didn't take a base rate increase to knock a fair chunk off the gold market (in fact it was at a time of significant yield suppression by central banks), when the increases stop, the owners have had their fun, and the desire to own a car that needs expensive maintenance, and isn't increasing in value... well the shine will have faded and they will sell.
And when the "crash" finally comes, I suspect it will be a good thing, reality will have returned and the cars will only be of interest to enthusiasts rather than speculators (hence less demand). There is of course the upside of a bubble, some rot-boxes will have been restored as it is financially viable in a bubble keeping them on the road, otherwise they would have just rusted to nothing.
Edited by GrizzlyBear on Sunday 11th October 22:00
thelawnet1 said:
You could own a TVR a merc E55 K an RS6 M5 Porsche or this ..... Id not be buying this I think that the market will correct itself due to a sharp dose of realism rather than any planned or unexpected events in the financial world. The top cars are likely to hold their value, but I think that more and more people will come to share my opinion that a barn find is really worth that much; unless you are talking about a 60s Ferrari or Aston Martin restoration costs could easily come to more than the cost of a good original, which will always be worth more. I would be surprised if some of the more run of the mill cars keep much of their inflated values, so I see classic British sports cars losing a lot, but it means that I might even be able to afford a big Healey, so I'm not too bothered. 
Justin Case said:
I think that the market will correct itself due to a sharp dose of realism rather than any planned or unexpected events in the financial world. The top cars are likely to hold their value, but I think that more and more people will come to share my opinion that a barn find is really worth that much; unless you are talking about a 60s Ferrari or Aston Martin restoration costs could easily come to more than the cost of a good original, which will always be worth more. I would be surprised if some of the more run of the mill cars keep much of their inflated values, so I see classic British sports cars losing a lot, but it means that I might even be able to afford a big Healey, so I'm not too bothered.
It does depend on who has bought and why. Some may have bought their childhood poster cars (and at a high price) and no matter what the market does up or down its a keeper for life
Some may have bought it as a long term investment and will simply sit on the asset - just like so many did in the house price correction we saw 7 odd years ago - so few actual sales people simply sat tight that could afford to / didn't have to move and rode out the lower prices. The smarter ones if they really wanted used it as a cheap step up the property ladder.
The same could happen with classic cars
Also class will prevail so garage queens single owners full main dealer service history etc over high miles number of owners not perfect spec would be less desirable - along with people selling snake oil ie a 2.3 D Sierra low miles will never be a classic car it was horrid new horrid now and utterly no reason to buy one at any price.
jonah35 said:
People forget in 2008/9 you couldn't give cars away.
I'll agree they dipped for around a year but there are always buyers - I bought my wife her most expensive car to date in 2009 - we needed a better car so I bought it - expecting it to drop in value but that didn't matter as we wanted to use it, rather than sell it.V8RX7 said:
jonah35 said:
People forget in 2008/9 you couldn't give cars away.
I'll agree they dipped for around a year but there are always buyers - I bought my wife her most expensive car to date in 2009 - we needed a better car so I bought it - expecting it to drop in value but that didn't matter as we wanted to use it, rather than sell it.Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff