WHat will be the next big automotive merger??

[DonkeyApple]

saaby93 said:

JLR looks exposed

I doubt TATA would sell JLR as the revenues from JLR since 2010 have been what has stopped the entire TATA conglomerate from defaulting on its over leveraged debt obligations. They need many years of the future revenues, more than could be acquired in a sale.

[DonkeyApple]

kambites said:

glazbagun said:

I'm not sure size is so important if they can keep profitability up. Porsche were making fortunes off the back of the Cayenne, after all. So long as they can keep their "premiumness" up and don't overplay their hand I think they'll be OK.

Well yes but Porsche are no longer independent, they're part of VAG.

Porsche own the controlling stake of the VW Group, what used to be VAG. After taking control they spun the Porsche car business into a new wholly owned subsiduary of VW Group called Porsche AG but the original Porsche SE controls the whole shebang.

[RDMcG]

DonkeyApple said:

Porsche own the controlling stake of the VW Group, what used to be VAG. After taking control they spun the Porsche car business into a new wholly owned subsiduary of VW Group called Porsche AG but the original Porsche SE controls the whole shebang.

As I recall the Porsche/Piech clan had 51% control over all of VAG

[uk_vette]

goneape said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if China and India get involved somewhere. They will surely want a slice of the established market and I guess it's a tough place for new entrants.

I am sure this will be the case.
The Chinese are awash with money, much more so than the Indians.

My bet would be a Chinese car company buying some one out.

[uk_vette]

glazbagun said:

kambites said:

BMW are starting to look awfully small for an independent mainstream car maker.

I'm not sure size is so important if they can keep profitability up. Porsche were making fortunes off the back of the Cayenne, after all. So long as they can keep their "premiumness" up and don't overplay their hand I think they'll be OK.

I can't see Aston surviving much longer without someone to help them with economies of scale, but (Like Lotus) I'm not sure who would want them. Ford seem to be out of the buying game, as do GM. Toyota could buy Lotus or Proton, but I have no idea why they'd want to. Something as niche as a sportscar seems to be a shared risk thing these days, like the GT86, and why would anyone want Proton?

I think Lotus is Chinese ?

[TooMany2cvs]

Slinky1989 said:

Also doesn't capture the powertrain agreements JLR still have with Ford and PSA.

No, it doesn't capture any of the JVs or powertrain agreements or platform sharing. Purely corporateness. It'd look like a plate of spaghetti if it did.

Just for a start, PSA are currently in bed with Mitsu (i-MiEV/C-Zero/i-On, Outlander/C4Aircross/4008), Toyota (Aygo/108/C1 & van), Ford (engines), JLR (engines), Fiat (various vans), GM (platforms)... They're also just getting out of bed with BMW on engines.

[DonkeyApple]

RDMcG said:

DonkeyApple said:

Porsche own the controlling stake of the VW Group, what used to be VAG. After taking control they spun the Porsche car business into a new wholly owned subsiduary of VW Group called Porsche AG but the original Porsche SE controls the whole shebang.

As I recall the Porsche/Piech clan had 51% control over all of VAG

Yes. And a larger holding of the voting rights. VAG basically became VW Group and that owns all the brands and subsidiaries but is controlled by the original Porsche entity which became a governance/holding company and spun off the car building to a new company as a subsidiary of VW Group. It all stems from that blinding options coup that Porsche pulled on VAG when VAG tried to buy Porsche.

It's semantics really but the long/short is that Porsche bought VAG rather than the reverse which was intended.

[Bodo]

DonkeyApple said:

RDMcG said:

DonkeyApple said:

Porsche own the controlling stake of the VW Group, what used to be VAG. After taking control they spun the Porsche car business into a new wholly owned subsiduary of VW Group called Porsche AG but the original Porsche SE controls the whole shebang.

As I recall the Porsche/Piech clan had 51% control over all of VAG

Yes. And a larger holding of the voting rights. VAG basically became VW Group and that owns all the brands and subsidiaries but is controlled by the original Porsche entity which became a governance/holding company and spun off the car building to a new company as a subsidiary of VW Group. It all stems from that blinding options coup that Porsche pulled on VAG when VAG tried to buy Porsche.

It's semantics really but the long/short is that Porsche bought VAG rather than the reverse which was intended.

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG is owned by VW AG 100%

VW AG is owned by
Porsche SE with 50.73% voting rights (and 32.2% in capital)
Porsche GmbH 2.37%
Land Niedersachsen 20% (right to veto any decision according to Volkswagen Gesetz)
Qatar Holding LLC (QH) 17%
Free float 9.9%

Porsche SE is owned by
Families Porsche-Daxer-Piëch Beteiligung GmbH 27%
Familie Porsche Beteiligung GmbH 26%
Ferdinand Piëch GmbH 14%
Hans-Michel Piëch GmbH 14%
Porsche GmbH 9%
Qatar Holding LLC (QH) 10%

Porsche GmbH is owned by Porsche Holding Salzburg, which is owned by the Porsche family, iirc.

[TooMany2cvs]

Bodo said:

VW AG is owned by
Porsche SE with 50.73% voting rights (and 32.2% in capital)
Qatar Holding LLC (QH) 17%

Porsche SE is owned by
Qatar Holding LLC (QH) 10%

So the Qatari sovereign wealth fund controls a bit over 22% of VAG?

[The Wookie]

Didn't the Porsche takeover bid effectively fail? I thought they needed 75% and that the local state had a blocking minority?

Also, Fiat has some desirable brands in its portfolio but it needs to shrink into something viable before anyone will be interested IMHO.

[MadmanO/T People]

Both GM and Toyota have allegedly rebuffed Marchionne's inquires concerning talks of a merger. Ford is clearly out of the takeover game, so who else could FCA take to the alter? How about these possible candidates?.......

1) Mazda. No longer affiliated with Ford, Mazda looks to be quite exposed. FCA and Mazda already have a link together, as Fiat will soon be selling a new Spider roadster based on the new MX-5 and built in Japan my Mazda. Could this partnership lead to something bigger?

2) BMW. Lots of potential for Fiats, MINIs and small front-drive BMWs to share a common platform. Likewise, bigger Bimmers, Alfa Romeos and Maseratis could share the same oily bits. A merged Fiat-Chrysler-BMW could cover the entire price/product spectrum.

3) Renault-Nissan. Infiniti and Alfa Romeo seem like a natural pairing. Renault is weak in the SUV sector and can use assistance from Jeep. But could two egomaniacs like Marchionne and Ghosn run a car company together? I think NOT!

4) PSA Peugeot Citroen. Like Fiat, PSA are masters of small cheap hatchbacks, but they lack a premium brand. Alfa and Maserati fills that gap. Dongfeng recently purchased 14 per cent of PSA stock, which could also open the door to an influx of Chinese money. Speaking of China.....

5) One of many Chinese manufacturers. China is flush with cash and craves western brand names with History and Heritage™ they can use to lend their own products some much-needed credibility. See Geely and Volvo, SAIC and MG. China has become the partner of last resort whenever western companies refuse to play ball.


Consolidation in the car industry seems inevitable. The only questions are who will merge with whom and when.

[gazza285]

loose cannon said:

Mr GrimNasty said:

It may not be big, but I predict vultures will be picking over the bones of TESLA for anything they can salvage in the not too distant future.

I agree the man likes setting up over valued company's that go bust
He must be great at marketing and sucking off congress

Subsidised smoke and mirrors.

[RDMcG]

I quite like the notion of FCA-BMW actually . Wonder what happens to Ferrari which they have slightly restructured corporately in the group in the scenario...

[MadmanO/T People]

Another potential merger partner for FCA might be Hyundai-Kia. Hyundai wants to move upmarket but that's hard to do without a viable upmarket brand name which FCA can certainly provide. Hyundai already have a rear-drive platform (Genesis and Equus) which would have to be sharpened up and made less barge-like to make a convincing Alfa Romeo, but it could be done. And Chrysler could do much worse than using Hyundai platforms for their future models.

[kambites]

DonkeyApple said:

kambites said:

glazbagun said:

I'm not sure size is so important if they can keep profitability up. Porsche were making fortunes off the back of the Cayenne, after all. So long as they can keep their "premiumness" up and don't overplay their hand I think they'll be OK.

Well yes but Porsche are no longer independent, they're part of VAG.

Porsche own the controlling stake of the VW Group, what used to be VAG. After taking control they spun the Porsche car business into a new wholly owned subsiduary of VW Group called Porsche AG but the original Porsche SE controls the whole shebang.

As I understand the situation, Porsche's car division (Porsche AG?) is 100% owned by VAG. Who owns VAG is fascinating and thoroughly confusing but somewhat beyond the scope of this discussion.

[TooMany2cvs]

MadmanO/T People said:

4) PSA Peugeot Citroen. Like Fiat, PSA are masters of small cheap hatchbacks, but they lack a premium brand.

Which is exactly why they're spinning DS into a separate brand.

And Citroen owning Maserati didn't exactly work brilliantly last time, nor did the last attempted merger between Citroen and Lancia. All of that early '70s mullarkey is what led to Sevel and the van/sprogbus tie-ups. If there was appetite on either side, it'd have long-since been done.

[DonkeyApple]

The Wookie said:

Didn't the Porsche takeover bid effectively fail? I thought they needed 75% and that the local state had a blocking minority?

Also, Fiat has some desirable brands in its portfolio but it needs to shrink into something viable before anyone will be interested IMHO.

Yes and no. It's a long time ago but as I recall, the then CEO or Porsche tried to stealthily and as it transpires, dishonestly, buy VW. Porsche built up a large physical holding and then started borrowing money to buy options on VW stock. At one point they were making more money from trading the options than selling cars.

This whole fiasco went on for ages, with VW then trying to buy Porsche etc.

In the end, VW pulled a cunning trick (can't recall what but it involved the head of Saxony or Bavaria etc being a shareholder and calling a veto) that saw its share price drop enough to wipe out Porsche's massive options position and leave Porsche with a massive trading debt. Porsche then ran to the Qataris deaperate for cash to plug their hole. VW persuaded Merkal to tell the Qataris not to invest.

The long and the short of it was that it was a total mess that ended in Porsche being broke bar for its massive stake in VW and after years of wrangling resulted in Porsche owning VW but key VW people owning stock in Porsche.

In short, it was one massive fraud and people are due to go to prison over their market manipulation and other illegal activities.

[DukeDickson]

RDMcG said:

I quite like the notion of FCA-BMW actually . Wonder what happens to Ferrari which they have slightly restructured corporately in the group in the scenario...

Sounds to me like a variation on the Arna.


Will never happen, but BMW & Honda (one way or another) is the obvious choice. Or, failing that, FCA with anyone purely into money (but in a leftfield way) and either of the engine builders with a kindred spirit.


Of course, the interesting thing is the Chinese & Koreans (as always). Money talks!

[Bodo]

I didn't recognize any interesting merger in the last few months, but things are moving nonetheless.

• Renault-Nissan has had their dispute settled with more French government influence
• Apple is rumoured to work on building a car (as they have vacancies for automotive production engineers)
• Google works on a self-driving car

Also, some journalist suggested that Apple is looking at BMW. While I believe BMW would make a good premium automotive division, a buyout would depend on the family owners, who own 46.7% of shares.

[AmitG]

Bodo said:

Also, some journalist suggested that Apple is looking at BMW. While I believe BMW would make a good premium automotive division, a buyout would depend on the family owners, who own 46.7% of shares.

I would be astounded if Apple bought BMW. I can imagine Apple and BMW partnering on pure electric cars, and perhaps Apple leveraging BMW for powertrain on a future Apple car, but I can't see Apple wanting anything else.