Is the bubble about to burst?

Is the bubble about to burst?

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Discussion

Crimp

Original Poster:

909 posts

186 months

Alpinestars

13,954 posts

243 months

Friday 7th August 2015
quotequote all
Whilst I agree that sales seem to have slowed down, why would the bubble burst now? There's still plenty of cheap money for the foreseeable future, supply is limited and can only ever decrease, and demand is becoming global.

People have been calling the top for nearly 2 years now. Someone will get it right at some point, but it'll either be luck or very obvious.

W12GT

3,502 posts

220 months

Friday 7th August 2015
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It will happen and I think it will be rapid but I can't see it happening in the next 6months.

Some of the cars are way over priced for what they are - like the stock at JZM - I can't believe they've for from selling some very run of the mill cars that were up to about £60k to some cars nearing 500k in a fairly short time frame. They'd definitely been partly responsible for the crazy prices we see today.

I think the first signs we will see will be that the cars that are SOR as the dealers won't want to get stung badly so will leave it with the owner to take the risk - either that or they will do low ball purchase price offers.

HokumPokum

2,049 posts

204 months

Friday 7th August 2015
quotequote all
Alpinestars said:
Whilst I agree that sales seem to have slowed down, why would the bubble burst now? There's still plenty of cheap money for the foreseeable future, supply is limited and can only ever decrease, and demand is becoming global.

People have been calling the top for nearly 2 years now. Someone will get it right at some point, but it'll either be luck or very obvious.
Cash is the worse asset in the world. Of course bubble not going to burst......

GT4RS

4,395 posts

196 months

Friday 7th August 2015
quotequote all
W12GT said:
I think the first signs we will see will be that the cars that are SOR as the dealers won't want to get stung badly so will leave it with the owner to take the risk - either that or they will do low ball purchase price offers.
This is already happening !

nicksps

24 posts

108 months

Friday 7th August 2015
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As far as 997 (2) Turbo's go...... there's no sign of it yet.
I've logged just about all 997TT's for sale in the UK since March (Porsche site, Autotrader and this site). Here's what I've found:

997tt Coupe Average price Mar/Apr £68772 Average price June/July £71212

Criteria: 2010-2011 models only, 15-30k miles only, Turbo S and cabrio's excluded.

Obviously, age and mileage variations will influence this, but overall I think they're still rising.

Damn..... I should have bought in April rather than wait till September !!


mollytherocker

14,365 posts

208 months

Friday 7th August 2015
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I own a 993 and hope that 'the bubble bursts'. This could mean that I could buy a GT3.

Its not going to happen though. I am 100% sure.

stichill99

1,040 posts

180 months

Friday 7th August 2015
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I also have a 993 Carrera and hope the bubble bursts as I would love a 964 to keep it company in the garage. Honestly I don't think it's ever going to happen but consider myself fortunate that I have the 993 and that's not going anywhere!

PR36

341 posts

115 months

Friday 7th August 2015
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^^^ There are just too many people with spare cash 'poised' to take advantage of this bursting bubble for it to happen!

wtdoom

3,742 posts

207 months

Friday 7th August 2015
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A friend just sold his 2.4s for 220,000,oo was on sale for less than a week

Wozy68

5,387 posts

169 months

Friday 7th August 2015
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mollytherocker said:
I own a 993 and hope that 'the bubble bursts'. This could mean that I could buy a GT3.

Its not going to happen though. I am 100% sure.
It aint going to burst quite yet for us Molly. In the wider classic car market/boom, the Porsche 911 993 is very much playing catch-up compared to some makes out there.

Even if the whole lot came crashing down tomorrow, I reckon we would be ok, purely because they haven't really headed as far north as some others out there.



Edited by Wozy68 on Friday 7th August 22:26

Crimp

Original Poster:

909 posts

186 months

Friday 7th August 2015
quotequote all
I think its the real high end stuff which will come tumbling down.
That said I think you'd be silly to buy a Carrera 3.2 at 60-70k as some are advertised for, or chancers selling 930's at close to £100k.

graemel

7,017 posts

216 months

Friday 7th August 2015
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I guarantee that the bubble will burst two months before the restoration of my 67S is completed. It is nice to know you have an appreciating asset but I think like most of you guys I buy them to use and enjoy. I have just bought a 65 911 FIA historic race car. It will be pampered. It will be well cared for. But I intend to race the crap out of it.
Just don't look at Thomas's site. My old 993GT2 is about to come back on the market. I know what the asking will be. Am I depressed about it. Hell no. I got to enjoy it too the full. Had I have kept it the car would have ended up in a secure storage facility. Wrapped up in cotton wool and never driven. A crying shame. With the bubble about to burst that has been talked about for years would I have bailed at 350, 500, 750, 1000. Would I have had the balls to see it right the way through just to see how far fetched the number could be. Unlikely.
I think that we will see some price correction on the relatively mass produced stuff. But I believe in the numbers game. They built 256 911's in 1964 and 256 in 1965. I'm guessing that there is less than 50 left. 67S's built in 1966 there are three right hand drive cars left in the world. 993GT2 evo's they built 20 cars

coccodrillo

35 posts

105 months

Friday 7th August 2015
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All markets that involve speculation will suffer at least a correction at some point and I get the impression that there's been a fair bit of speculation going on lately. I do think that the lack of a decent alternative for surplus cash is a primary factor these days and I don't really see that changing for a while yet.

The thing with asset bubbles is that they tend to pop just when people think that they can't possibly do so. I remember property in 88 and tech in 99 and people are talking now in just the same way as they did back then, i.e. "Prices will never go down". Everything was going great right up until the moment when it wasn't.

The price increases in the air cooled cars seem to have been particularly rapid and rapid increases aren't often a good sign of a sustainable market. I'd really like to get a 993 but I'm nervous about doing it just now. Things just feel a bit overheated at the moment .

Crimp

Original Poster:

909 posts

186 months

Friday 7th August 2015
quotequote all
graemel said:
I guarantee that the bubble will burst two months before the restoration of my 67S is completed. It is nice to know you have an appreciating asset but I think like most of you guys I buy them to use and enjoy. I have just bought a 65 911 FIA historic race car. It will be pampered. It will be well cared for. But I intend to race the crap out of it.
Just don't look at Thomas's site. My old 993GT2 is about to come back on the market. I know what the asking will be. Am I depressed about it. Hell no. I got to enjoy it too the full. Had I have kept it the car would have ended up in a secure storage facility. Wrapped up in cotton wool and never driven. A crying shame. With the bubble about to burst that has been talked about for years would I have bailed at 350, 500, 750, 1000. Would I have had the balls to see it right the way through just to see how far fetched the number could be. Unlikely.
I think that we will see some price correction on the relatively mass produced stuff. But I believe in the numbers game. They built 256 911's in 1964 and 256 in 1965. I'm guessing that there is less than 50 left. 67S's built in 1966 there are three right hand drive cars left in the world. 993GT2 evo's they built 20 cars
Good post Graeme and trust you're well.
With you on the 993 GT2 evo's don't think any bubble will affect these!!
You hit the nail on the head though, its nice to think your car from a value perspective is skyrocketing but there's no enjoyment involved with it wrapped in cotton wool in a de-humidified bubble somewhere is there, i've been there done that and was rather bored.

supersport

4,040 posts

226 months

Saturday 8th August 2015
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Who gives a f... I bought mine to drive, couldn't care less what my children inherit, another restoration bill probably. Either way I will be dead.

YoungMD

326 posts

119 months

Saturday 8th August 2015
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Things increase in Value for two reasons; supply reduces or demand increases, as long as they continue on the same course prices will stay the same.

Where there is low numbers, specials etc etc supply dictates prices so probably little correction, but where demand drives prices unless that stays the same a correction is enviable, have more people bought air cooled porsches over the last two years than 'normally' would?

Probably...trend, investment, etc etc so if this is the case unless a new normal is established with generally a higher demand for air cooled porsches a correction is enviable. Maybe the demand will stay there, high interest rates still etc etc but there are very few things in this world that enjoy a rapid value increase that is not driven by speculation, and speculation is time limited....

Wilmslowboy

4,189 posts

205 months

Saturday 8th August 2015
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During the last catastrophic financial event (late 2008)...most of the classic car indices showed at worse a 20% drop - most of which was recovered within a year or so.....

So if we had another Lemans (global credit crunch) ...we could see that £100k 911E/ 993 Turbo return to what £80k ???

I personally think it's unlikely we will see huge drops (worse case) ...primarily because these are good cars (unlike some of the late 80's Ferrari that saw 70% drops in value in 1989) and I know of many wannabe owners who are wanting to own them to drive (regardless of investment potential).



...note I'm talking average prices,you will always get the ridiculously priced (and sold car) that will suffer harder than the average...

ChrisW.

6,214 posts

254 months

Saturday 8th August 2015
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I certainly agree that life isn't a museum ...

QED -- to try the range there will probably be an evolution of car ownership that is fascinating for the fact that in these respects, one can speak fondly from personal experience.

My challenge is, when a price doubles in a year, where is the real value ?

Combine with this the acceleration in the quality and performance of most new cars --- who would not want to play (for example) with a McLaren as well as a GT3 ??

And what if to add a little spice, the McLaren became a more cost effective ownership experience than the GT3 ? My GT3's were never "cheap" to run by the time I had paid for various radiators, dampers, exhaust boxes, drop links etc etc ... even on secondhand cars with the most detailed service histories ...

This is where the competition now is for the Porsche pot --- particularly when secondhand values do silly things and there is no real shortage of metal to buy ...

Audi R8 V10 ? Various generations of M3 ? Audi RS4 ? Golf R ?




rubystone

11,252 posts

258 months

Saturday 8th August 2015
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F40s and Daytonas hit £700k during the last bubble. They dropped back to £150k and £85k respectively at their lowest levels. You don't need a calculator to establish that's way more than a 20% drop.

I think the blue chip cars such as F40s, Daytonas, 2.7 RS and anything limited in number from the prestige marques will maintain value unless being oversold. I don't see 2.7 RS at 7 figures though, unless they have a very special history. If a boggo touring in lhd light yellow gets there, I made a big mistake in letting one go last month...

I think that the more common cars - 308s, post G Series Porsches - for example, will find a floor around 30-50% of their top end value. After all, £25k is fair value for a decent 3.2 and £40k should be sensible for a 308, right? Cars such as the 355 and oversold 930s should take the biggest hit. I think they'll drop by at least 50%.