BMW: All Models Electric Within Decade
Discussion
Condi said:
So what about those people who cant wait for 4 hours for it to charge? All you're doing is shifting the emissions elsewhere... Seem completely pointless to me!
No, the future of cars will be hydrogen based. Fuel cells produce electric and only emit water as a byproduct.
Charge at a supercharge station or at home.No, the future of cars will be hydrogen based. Fuel cells produce electric and only emit water as a byproduct.
Well to wheel EV's are way more efficient, and in addition petrol production uses about 7kwh of electrical energy during refinement. At the wost EV's shift a smaller proportion of pollution somewhere else.
Hydrogen is just a very inefficient energy store. Its also needs an entirety new storage and distribution infrastructure.
98elise said:
Hydrogen is just a very inefficient energy store. Its also needs an entirety new storage and distribution infrastructure.
Yes, but you make it dense - compress it. So while its energy density at atmospheric pressure, in the same way as LPG is kept its easy enough to transport and store. And as for new storage and distribution, not at all. It would be a relatively cheap and easy conversion from petrol station to hydrogen station. Going back to the LPG analogy, my local petrol station sells compressed gas and petrol - must make commercial sense.
AnotherClarkey said:
I don't think it is too surprising. As more and more people get experience of electric cars they won't want to put up with the noise, vibration, onerous servicing and laggy transmissions associated with internal combustion engines for general driving about. Nothing to do with 'green', not much to do with cost, just a better experience.
Internal combustion will continue on for those regularly covering long distances and 'purists'.
This is exactly it for me. Joe Schmoe isn't arsed about saving CO2's; the endless surveys courting people about the subjects that are of most concern to them almost always have climate change languishing in dead last. Some Schmoe's are interested in the cheap running costs, but that won't last forever. But it won't matter, once you've had the taste of an driving an EV, the experience is hard to put back down. I drove a Ford Focus BEV in detroit a couple of years ago. My word what a well sorted machine that is. The ride was superb and the NVH absolutely incredible, I suspect only cars from RR are better (its certainly got the edge on my OH's dad's S-Class).Internal combustion will continue on for those regularly covering long distances and 'purists'.
Granted, this is at odds with driving for pleasure which IMO still needs that ICE sound track (specifically 6 cylinders or more). But for day to day driving, the EV knocks the ICE powered car into a cocked hat (range permitting of course).
Olf said:
I have an i3 and a Z4MC.
The days of internal combustion engines are seriously numbered if BMW can double the mileage range. The driving experience is already amazing and the cost of running is so low it's almost comical. Honestly it will be a no brainer for 95% of people once the range is sorted.
No it won't - not everybody can plug the F*****s in overnight which makes them pointless!The days of internal combustion engines are seriously numbered if BMW can double the mileage range. The driving experience is already amazing and the cost of running is so low it's almost comical. Honestly it will be a no brainer for 95% of people once the range is sorted.
And if you would rather drive an i3 than a Z4MC I'll happily take the Z4MC off your hands!
Mr Tidy said:
No it won't - not everybody can plug the F*****s in overnight which makes them pointless!
And if you would rather drive an i3 than a Z4MC I'll happily take the Z4MC off your hands!
There will be many options with an IC engine to power the EV drivetrain like the i8.And if you would rather drive an i3 than a Z4MC I'll happily take the Z4MC off your hands!
Then infrastructure will catch up. Charging roads/parking spaces etc.
BoRED S2upid said:
Is it April 1st? Full electric in 10 years when petrol is getting cheaper by the day and is only going to get cheaper as the major powers pump the stuff faster and faster. It's never going to happen.
Doesn't matter how cheap it gets. With emission regs the world over getting tighter and tighter, hybrid/electric cars will only ever become more 'n' more common place.There's a few things on this thread that are right, wrong and interesting all at the same time. I'm a lover of the ICE, and I sit here in my PH 'life's too short for a hybrid' T. Honestly! It's a little faded now and I can see the time on the horizon when the weekend toy + sensible commute garage model becomes weekend toy + sensible hybrid commute model, purely due to volumes of suitably priced daily sheddage if nothing else.
Anyway firstly, the remark about the grid. Condi makes a valid point that even without a rapid increase in PHEVs using the grid, we're getting short on grid capacity. Its a problem, the answer in my opinion is nuclear but that's a political question not a practical one. However the counter argument is also true: the majority of charging will be done while we're all sleeping, so in theory the capacity issue is not as bad as it looks at first sight. There is an issue for a lot of people who live in towns and cities, and don't have the ability to plug in overnight. This is me (London - could not be worse!). This is a bit ridiculous, as these areas are the ones that have most to gain from EVs but the least ability to support them. That is another political issue, that will probably involve funding from additional voluntary taxation, by which I mean congestion and emission charging. I don't like it and I'll be a victim unless I can move, but again, politics.
Another point is the one Kambites makes about grid power consumption falling as refineries won't be so active in a PHEV-dominant era. Before criticising the guy I'll make the caveat that I don't know what he does for a living, and my knowledge is based on academia rather than practicality; but as I see it there are a couple of problems with this assertion. Firstly, while its true that refineries consume a huge amount of energy to do what they do, most of the thermal energy is provided by steam, which is raised on site by burning coal, oil, or gas. Power - electricity - is a byproduct. While some very high temperatures are required, anything above 380C (as hot as it gets for steam) is provided by burning gas, a byproduct of which is also electricity. I can't say for certain (and maybe kambites can) but I believe an oil refinery is a net producer of electricity, not a consumer - after all, it's in their interests to be so and they have the flexibility and capability to be so.
The second point is that refineries are part of the national infrastructure and although privately owned, are very much tied into national and international politics. If gasoline demand falls, the raw gasoline will just be processed to another product, the refinery activity won't change. This could be feedstocks for plastics, or hydrogen gas, or LPG to run gas power plants to generate electricity.
There is also another consideration in the whole electric vs. gasoline debate, that I've mentioned before: aviation. I know trials for battery powered aircraft are happening, but I cannot seriously see any feasible contender for non-liquid (hesitate to say fossil, because it needn't be so) fuelled aircraft, certainly not in the same way that PHEVs are breaking into routine road transport. It's only a matter of time until it does happen, but its also only a matter of time until we, i.e. humans, figure a way to create liquid fuels from non-dinosaur sources. I see much more progress and promise in the latter than the former, in the literature and engineering reports.
Back on topic; BMW are going PHEV. Of course they are. Audi are pushing their "Ultra" range and competing in WEC, Merc are ruling the pinnacle of motorsport in F1, Porsche seem to have taken the spoils of the hybrid hypercar contest on figures, Maclaren have taken it on drama, Ferrari on looks; of course BMW are making a big deal of it. They're dead, or niche, if they don't.
Anyway firstly, the remark about the grid. Condi makes a valid point that even without a rapid increase in PHEVs using the grid, we're getting short on grid capacity. Its a problem, the answer in my opinion is nuclear but that's a political question not a practical one. However the counter argument is also true: the majority of charging will be done while we're all sleeping, so in theory the capacity issue is not as bad as it looks at first sight. There is an issue for a lot of people who live in towns and cities, and don't have the ability to plug in overnight. This is me (London - could not be worse!). This is a bit ridiculous, as these areas are the ones that have most to gain from EVs but the least ability to support them. That is another political issue, that will probably involve funding from additional voluntary taxation, by which I mean congestion and emission charging. I don't like it and I'll be a victim unless I can move, but again, politics.
Another point is the one Kambites makes about grid power consumption falling as refineries won't be so active in a PHEV-dominant era. Before criticising the guy I'll make the caveat that I don't know what he does for a living, and my knowledge is based on academia rather than practicality; but as I see it there are a couple of problems with this assertion. Firstly, while its true that refineries consume a huge amount of energy to do what they do, most of the thermal energy is provided by steam, which is raised on site by burning coal, oil, or gas. Power - electricity - is a byproduct. While some very high temperatures are required, anything above 380C (as hot as it gets for steam) is provided by burning gas, a byproduct of which is also electricity. I can't say for certain (and maybe kambites can) but I believe an oil refinery is a net producer of electricity, not a consumer - after all, it's in their interests to be so and they have the flexibility and capability to be so.
The second point is that refineries are part of the national infrastructure and although privately owned, are very much tied into national and international politics. If gasoline demand falls, the raw gasoline will just be processed to another product, the refinery activity won't change. This could be feedstocks for plastics, or hydrogen gas, or LPG to run gas power plants to generate electricity.
There is also another consideration in the whole electric vs. gasoline debate, that I've mentioned before: aviation. I know trials for battery powered aircraft are happening, but I cannot seriously see any feasible contender for non-liquid (hesitate to say fossil, because it needn't be so) fuelled aircraft, certainly not in the same way that PHEVs are breaking into routine road transport. It's only a matter of time until it does happen, but its also only a matter of time until we, i.e. humans, figure a way to create liquid fuels from non-dinosaur sources. I see much more progress and promise in the latter than the former, in the literature and engineering reports.
Back on topic; BMW are going PHEV. Of course they are. Audi are pushing their "Ultra" range and competing in WEC, Merc are ruling the pinnacle of motorsport in F1, Porsche seem to have taken the spoils of the hybrid hypercar contest on figures, Maclaren have taken it on drama, Ferrari on looks; of course BMW are making a big deal of it. They're dead, or niche, if they don't.
I fully stand by everything becoming electric, no more gas supplies to houses, Electric cookers, boilers, cars, lighting, everything. And then they clean up the source. It means as technology improves the benefit is universal as everything already uses electricity. The job becomes making the electricity production as efficient as possible.
Digitalize said:
I fully stand by everything becoming electric, no more gas supplies to houses, Electric cookers, boilers, cars, lighting, everything. And then they clean up the source. It means as technology improves the benefit is universal as everything already uses electricity. The job becomes making the electricity production as efficient as possible.
Does clean up translate as "rely on renewables" by any chance?Not if we want to remain in a developed industrialised society.
http://bravenewclimate.com/2014/08/22/catch-22-of-...
Renewables simply won't work.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/22/shocker-top-...
The above links are evidence-based and well worth a read-through for anyone who thinks that renewables offer a solution, which is not the case.
Digitalize said:
I fully stand by everything becoming electric, no more gas supplies to houses, Electric cookers, boilers, cars, lighting, everything. And then they clean up the source. It means as technology improves the benefit is universal as everything already uses electricity. The job becomes making the electricity production as efficient as possible.
If it happens non of us will ever know. You could well be correct, but there are quite a few steps in the middle first.
turbobloke said:
The above links are evidence-based and well worth a read-through for anyone who thinks that renewables offer a solution, which is not the case.
On todays technology, but nuclear power offers the best solution, in either its current (fission) or future (fusion) formats. The latter of which is not quite renewable, but at the same time has so much potential fuel it would be in essence a limitless resource. Even the current model of plant actually uses an incredibly small amount of fuel, as spent fuel is recycled and you are left with only a small byproduct which cannot be reused. turbobloke said:
Reality will kick in at some point, that would be worth staying alive for!
Oh I hope so (reality that is) - every time you convert energy from one format to another you lose at least 20% of the energy. Oil burnt to make electricity to plug in to an EV - why oh why, just burn the oil in an ICE and get some FUN FFS!Mr Tidy said:
turbobloke said:
Reality will kick in at some point, that would be worth staying alive for!
Oh I hope so (reality that is) - every time you convert energy from one format to another you lose at least 20% of the energy. Oil burnt to make electricity to plug in to an EV - why oh why, just burn the oil in an ICE and get some FUN FFS!On the fun front, watch some videos of the latest Tesla P85D (700bhp) in insane mode. That looks like fun!
Just a minor point of correction with respect to UK refinery power usage - the trend is that increasing levels of refining will be done overseas due to simple economics. Use cheaper middle east labour in newer, more efficient plants to refine & then ship gasoline, diesel, FAME & aviation products over here bought at the best spot prices months in advance by the commodity brokers. Then use UK facilities as storage only. Blending & additive activities will be done here, but less & less refining.
Mr Tidy said:
Oh I hope so (reality that is) - every time you convert energy from one format to another you lose at least 20% of the energy. Oil burnt to make electricity to plug in to an EV - why oh why, just burn the oil in an ICE and get some FUN FFS!
Internal combustion is limited to around 37% thermal efficiency, whereas a modern CHP plant can hit double that, quite easily. 98elise said:
Mr Tidy said:
turbobloke said:
Reality will kick in at some point, that would be worth staying alive for!
Oh I hope so (reality that is) - every time you convert energy from one format to another you lose at least 20% of the energy. Oil burnt to make electricity to plug in to an EV - why oh why, just burn the oil in an ICE and get some FUN FFS!40% x 90% x 95% x 95% x 95% x 85% ~ 25%
Numbers vary slightly from source to source but the overall postition won't be too different from this wherever you look, and it represents an overall efficiecy of about 25%.
Taking the very best modern 'H-System' power generators moves the final figure to over 30% which is less than the best oil burners which are over 40% and about the same as the best petrol engines.
In summary a modern efficient (petrol) car can achieve 30% efficiency and the best diesels are around 42% efficiency. In comparison with electric cars, diesel wins and at best (for electric) it's a tie with petrol.
98elise said:
Also the production of petrol consumes a huge amounts of energy.
It's a long document at the link below and there have been several attempts to smear it but if you read this from cover to cover as it were, the detail is there and the result is surprising in a "dust to dust" analysis.Dust to Dust Report from CNW Marketing research
More here:
http://gm-volt.com/2009/04/19/study-calls-environm...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/greenertransport/...
"Study Calls Environmental Benefits of Electric Cars ‘Fiction’"
There's also this, which is probably now behind a paywall so the key quote is given.
Times Online said:
Under the EU emissions trading system electric cars were likely to result in higher overall CO2 emissions.
98elise said:
On the fun front, watch some videos of the latest Tesla P85D (700bhp) in insane mode. That looks like fun!
It would spark my terminals for sure.Regardless of unreality BMW's hands are tied by the EU so even if we get out in 2016/17 it may not offer much.
ETA a better CMW Marketing 'Dust to Dust' link (pdf):
Dust to Dust
ETA a better CMW Marketing 'Dust to Dust' link (pdf):
Dust to Dust
Edited by turbobloke on Monday 31st August 09:40
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