Will we have Shed in 10 years?
Discussion
As the title suggests it feels like cars are becoming increasingly like white goods in that beyond a certain useful economic life they are just thrown away. Will we even have sheds in 10 years or will the cost of maintaining vehicles make them uneconomic to repair such that they are few cars on the road over a certain age? If I look around my village bar the odd classic no one has a car older then '04 which is bonkers - even the cleaning lady next door has a brand new Suzuki (fair play she could be a milionairess who likes cleaning so not being judgemental).
Whether DPF, expensive ABS sensors, gearboxes that pop, auto gearbox gremlins, rust coming back, tyres at £800 a set for a car worth 3x, whatever, it seems sad to think our kids won't see old cars from their childhood on the road when they grow up as the cost of doing so and skills required go beyond the pockets and skillsets or normal people.
Pessimistic attitude or do people agree?
Whether DPF, expensive ABS sensors, gearboxes that pop, auto gearbox gremlins, rust coming back, tyres at £800 a set for a car worth 3x, whatever, it seems sad to think our kids won't see old cars from their childhood on the road when they grow up as the cost of doing so and skills required go beyond the pockets and skillsets or normal people.
Pessimistic attitude or do people agree?
No different to older cars. Electronics have always gone wrong. If anything they are probably much more reliable than in the past, just much more of them, so the falier rate is probably much the same. For every new problem an old one is resolved. 20 years ago an 8 year old car was past it and probably starting to rot somewhere, but modern car's just don't rot like they used to, but on the other hand minor faults can cost a lot more. I don't think anything has changed over all and we will continue to get sheds. The only difference is that it will be less likely to be full of hidden rot and more likely to have some of the electrical toys broken. Expect to see much more sheds with broken integral sat navs and heated seats.
SteveSteveson said:
Expect to see much more sheds with broken integral sat navs
The problem is that more and more functionality is being built in to the touch screens. If the screen isn't working not only do you lose Sat-Nav, but potentially you can't control heating, radio, Bluetooth phone integration, vehicle configuration settings...It's potentially a crippling single point of failure that could render the car almost useless.
IanCress said:
The problem is that more and more functionality is being built in to the touch screens. If the screen isn't working not only do you lose Sat-Nav, but potentially you can't control heating, radio, Bluetooth phone integration, vehicle configuration settings...
It's potentially a crippling single point of failure that could render the car almost useless.
This ceases to be an issue when car 'sales' are dominated by leasing - it's only got to last long enough to see the original lease deal and the second owner sale out, then it completely stops being the manufacturer's problem.It's potentially a crippling single point of failure that could render the car almost useless.
Back when people actually bought cars and maybe ran them for 10-15 years, everything in the car needed to remain as functional as possible throughout the ownership period to give the greatest chance of the customer wanting to buy from the same manufacturer again.
Not much has changed in the respect that people are happy as long as nothing breaks while they own it, it's just people 'own' new vehicles for 2 years now rather than 10.
Also, if there's a lack of serviceable 10-15 year old cars available in the market because the touch-screen do-it-all packs in and it's £3k to fix then more people will start to see leasing as the easy option and get a new vehicle when they previously may have considered second hand.
I'm sure cheap after-market parts will become available for electronic components that fail regularly. Looking at the average quality/specs of the displays in cars, I doubt they cost more than £5 to make. I remember when fuel injection was going to kill older cars off because it was so complex. Then it was catalysts. Then ABS and traction control. Then airbags. Then high-pressure injectors. Then DMFs. Then DPFs. Then turbochargers.
What always gets forgotten is that the aftermarket always picks up the slack and prices always drop.
There's usually an uncomfortable period for some owners caught with a relatively expensive problem on their relatively cheap car before the aftermarket catches up, but it always catches up.
What always gets forgotten is that the aftermarket always picks up the slack and prices always drop.
There's usually an uncomfortable period for some owners caught with a relatively expensive problem on their relatively cheap car before the aftermarket catches up, but it always catches up.
charltjr said:
I remember when fuel injection was going to kill older cars off because it was so complex. Then it was catalysts. Then ABS and traction control. Then airbags. Then high-pressure injectors. Then DMFs. Then DPFs. Then turbochargers.
What always gets forgotten is that the aftermarket always picks up the slack and prices always drop.
There's usually an uncomfortable period for some owners caught with a relatively expensive problem on their relatively cheap car before the aftermarket catches up, but it always catches up.
Exactly this. I'm tired of people asking this question every time a car has a new feature that was previously unseen.What always gets forgotten is that the aftermarket always picks up the slack and prices always drop.
There's usually an uncomfortable period for some owners caught with a relatively expensive problem on their relatively cheap car before the aftermarket catches up, but it always catches up.
IanCress said:
The problem is that more and more functionality is being built in to the touch screens. If the screen isn't working not only do you lose Sat-Nav, but potentially you can't control heating, radio, Bluetooth phone integration, vehicle configuration settings...
It's potentially a crippling single point of failure that could render the car almost useless.
The CANBUS stuff for that is all increasingly well understood. Already if you buy a double-DIN unit from Kenwood, Alpine and the like and you can buy the adaptors that allow your heating controls, parking sensor visuals, etc on the unit just as it would on an OE one. This will all be as cheap as you like in a few years time.It's potentially a crippling single point of failure that could render the car almost useless.
Besides, the insides of these is just electronics. People can replace the tiniest of components on smartphone PCBs, the typical boards inside a car nav unit are way easier to work on. It just requires different skills. There are already good specialists who can cheaply repair common car electronic issues (things like Audi dash displays or BMW radio displays developing dead lines), and I'm sure they'll evolve to cope with whatever is likely to fail on modern stuff.
Jimmy Recard said:
charltjr said:
I remember when fuel injection was going to kill older cars off because it was so complex. Then it was catalysts. Then ABS and traction control. Then airbags. Then high-pressure injectors. Then DMFs. Then DPFs. Then turbochargers.
What always gets forgotten is that the aftermarket always picks up the slack and prices always drop.
There's usually an uncomfortable period for some owners caught with a relatively expensive problem on their relatively cheap car before the aftermarket catches up, but it always catches up.
Exactly this. I'm tired of people asking this question every time a car has a new feature that was previously unseen.What always gets forgotten is that the aftermarket always picks up the slack and prices always drop.
There's usually an uncomfortable period for some owners caught with a relatively expensive problem on their relatively cheap car before the aftermarket catches up, but it always catches up.
This is the elephant in the room...
Providing the car has no rust and is in decent state of bodywork and interior I don't understand why people say it is uneconomical to repair.
Even on a PCP for a nice car you are spending 300 a month, that is £3600 a year. How someone spends £3600 every year repairing an old normal car? I certainly haven't, there is no way my 10 year old BMW will cost me £10000 in repairs over the course of 3 years (normal PCP contract length) even if I change turbo (which will be good for another 100k), high pressure fuel pump (which will be good for another 160k) etc...
What I think is people have the desire to drive a new car, not because it is financially a better decision. So they just take the excuse of the more expensive repairs to buy a new car. A new car will cost more... Always! Unless you do have an odd get that needs scrap or a special older sports car.
It's uneconomical to repair for the insurance company because between paying to fix it or giving the value of the car, it is cheaper for them to give the low value of the car. I will quite happy pay up to 2000 a year to keep my car going, it is economical than buying a new car... Luckily I don't need to spend anything like that but in the past I have changed a few things that were costly like the high pressure fuel pump and a turbo... I never thought it was uneconomical at all... Maybe I am mad...
Providing the car has no rust and is in decent state of bodywork and interior I don't understand why people say it is uneconomical to repair.
Even on a PCP for a nice car you are spending 300 a month, that is £3600 a year. How someone spends £3600 every year repairing an old normal car? I certainly haven't, there is no way my 10 year old BMW will cost me £10000 in repairs over the course of 3 years (normal PCP contract length) even if I change turbo (which will be good for another 100k), high pressure fuel pump (which will be good for another 160k) etc...
What I think is people have the desire to drive a new car, not because it is financially a better decision. So they just take the excuse of the more expensive repairs to buy a new car. A new car will cost more... Always! Unless you do have an odd get that needs scrap or a special older sports car.
It's uneconomical to repair for the insurance company because between paying to fix it or giving the value of the car, it is cheaper for them to give the low value of the car. I will quite happy pay up to 2000 a year to keep my car going, it is economical than buying a new car... Luckily I don't need to spend anything like that but in the past I have changed a few things that were costly like the high pressure fuel pump and a turbo... I never thought it was uneconomical at all... Maybe I am mad...
luckystrike said:
This ceases to be an issue when car 'sales' are dominated by leasing - it's only got to last long enough to see the original lease deal and the second owner sale out, then it completely stops being the manufacturer's problem.
I disagree. A second owner will look at the expected reliability and value the car accordingly. A lower residual value at the lease end will make the lease more expensive and the first buyer/lessee will vote with their wallet/purse.Purity14 said:
Not always;
I have a 2.5 Petrol Estate worth about £1500 tops.
I get about 25mpg, I pay £280 road tax, about £280 insurance but spend about £3100 on petrol over 15k miles.
My circumstances have changed; I don't require an estate anymore.
I feel that a brand new Nissan Pulsar 1.2 fits the bill on lease.
£120 per month, zero road tax(Paid for by lease) £300 Insurance. £1500 on diesil over 15k miles.
My old banger was costing me: £305 per month
My brand new lease car could cost me £270 per month
This is a miles per gallon issue though, If my old banger was as fuel efficient then there would be no reason to change.
Apart from the fact that if it breaks down it gets fixed under warrenty, piece of mind/fixed motoring costs.
It depends if you consider cars to be white goods.
In the situation above, any whiff of a bill over £300 would send me toward a lease deal.
Erm.... How is that a fair comparison? You are comparing a 2.5 Petrol with a 1.2 that is obviously much more economic to drive.I have a 2.5 Petrol Estate worth about £1500 tops.
I get about 25mpg, I pay £280 road tax, about £280 insurance but spend about £3100 on petrol over 15k miles.
My circumstances have changed; I don't require an estate anymore.
I feel that a brand new Nissan Pulsar 1.2 fits the bill on lease.
£120 per month, zero road tax(Paid for by lease) £300 Insurance. £1500 on diesil over 15k miles.
My old banger was costing me: £305 per month
My brand new lease car could cost me £270 per month
This is a miles per gallon issue though, If my old banger was as fuel efficient then there would be no reason to change.
Apart from the fact that if it breaks down it gets fixed under warrenty, piece of mind/fixed motoring costs.
It depends if you consider cars to be white goods.
In the situation above, any whiff of a bill over £300 would send me toward a lease deal.
If your situation/needs changed certainly a new car can be an answer but I mean like for like.
Like for like, unless you have a car that needs scrapping or is in really bad shape repairing will be more economical than buying a new one. But hey do you man maths, I am sure you need a new car when the water pump fails
Devil2575 said:
Jimmy Recard said:
charltjr said:
I remember when fuel injection was going to kill older cars off because it was so complex. Then it was catalysts. Then ABS and traction control. Then airbags. Then high-pressure injectors. Then DMFs. Then DPFs. Then turbochargers.
What always gets forgotten is that the aftermarket always picks up the slack and prices always drop.
There's usually an uncomfortable period for some owners caught with a relatively expensive problem on their relatively cheap car before the aftermarket catches up, but it always catches up.
Exactly this. I'm tired of people asking this question every time a car has a new feature that was previously unseen.What always gets forgotten is that the aftermarket always picks up the slack and prices always drop.
There's usually an uncomfortable period for some owners caught with a relatively expensive problem on their relatively cheap car before the aftermarket catches up, but it always catches up.
I scrapped a good condition Mondeo TDCI because of the usual gremlins. Sometimes there is just no way around the cost of rebuilding a complex part or labour to fit.
A 2.0 duratec petrol of the same year and mileage would probably have had a good few years of service left. Sometimes there is truth in the doom mongering.
Whats worrying now is that a lot of changes are caused by arbitary regulations rather than natural design progress. Its all a bit dog chasing tail.
SuperHangOn said:
High pressure injectors and DMF's are writing off thousands of otherwise serviceable cars as we speak!
Agreed, but I'd say it's always been the way with the mass-market tackle though, because they're worth so little after a few years. If a £400-£500 bill is enough to make repairing an otherwise perfectly good car uneconomic then there are a lot of things that could be the end of it. It's one of the reasons the "premium" brands get a reputation for longevity IMO, owners are more likely to spend the money on keeping them going because they are worth more.
CrgT16 said:
What I think is people have the desire to drive a new car, not because it is financially a better decision.
I agree. In the vast majority of cases it's the number on the plate and the convenience of having a warranty that temps people to leasing. Rarely will it be cheaper unless you are running some thirsty old barge that's constantly breaking down and you have to pay someone to fix it.It's worth noting that for every horror story you see on the web about x electrical problem, x going pop; there are probably 10 cars of the same make & model that will never have a problem. No one writes home about things going well, the press like doom & gloom! There will loads of sheds in years to come.
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