Classic car bursting...??
Discussion
http://www.evo.co.uk/news/17345/comedian-jerry-sei...
Plus Chris Evans sold all his cars off
Plus Rowan Atkinson selling his F1
Are these along with the incredibly toppy Ferrari race car that sold last week the indicators the game of musical chairs is starting to slow and you want to ensure you grab a seat quickly else you'll be carrying the can
Plus Chris Evans sold all his cars off
Plus Rowan Atkinson selling his F1
Are these along with the incredibly toppy Ferrari race car that sold last week the indicators the game of musical chairs is starting to slow and you want to ensure you grab a seat quickly else you'll be carrying the can
Welshbeef said:
So what are the signs of a classic car market at or very near its peak?
Surely you'd agree the risk of that being the case has increased notably
Huge numbers of SoR cars at specialist dealers, all POA, but not too much moving. I may very well be wrong, but I sense something amiss right now. Maybe it's just a seasonal thing and all will be back to "normal" come the Spring?Surely you'd agree the risk of that being the case has increased notably
With all due respect, a few celebrities selling their car collection doesn't necessarily mean the classic car market is collapsing. The term "classic" is always changing - at one point, the Model T and Benz Patent Motorwagen were regarded as classic cars rather than the vintage cars they are now - in much the same way that one day a Porsche 918 and Bugatti Chiron will be remembered by elderly petrolheads as the classics of their time.
If someone who had collected a heap of 1949 Chevrolet Deluxes was selling them, they'd get a passing glance in an editorial. Someone selling a couple of Ferrari 488s would probably get investigated for money laundering. I don't see the classic car bubble bursting (Mk1 MX-5s and classic Minis are only going one way), although it may have moved on from the traditional classic cars we've all been used to.
To put it into perspective, a Mitsubishi GTO and the mk1 Clio can now be insured as classic cars.
If someone who had collected a heap of 1949 Chevrolet Deluxes was selling them, they'd get a passing glance in an editorial. Someone selling a couple of Ferrari 488s would probably get investigated for money laundering. I don't see the classic car bubble bursting (Mk1 MX-5s and classic Minis are only going one way), although it may have moved on from the traditional classic cars we've all been used to.
To put it into perspective, a Mitsubishi GTO and the mk1 Clio can now be insured as classic cars.
Welshbeef said:
HustleRussell said:
No.
So what are the signs of a classic car market at or very near its peak? Surely you'd agree the risk of that being the case has increased notably
Add three years of rebasing of commodities, the sudden oil war and subsequent plummet, fears over Chinese growth and their sudden implementation of capital controls, a strong stock market correction, a very sudden and clear sell off, possible rebasing, of major tech stocks. Oh and genuine concerns of a new banking crisis. And through it all more and more collectors are going into margin calls. And the banking layoffs from Christmas probably won't be finding replacement jobs for a while so be selling toys to pay school fees, mortgages and to keep the wife in the expected way.
Whether 2016 transpires to be the year the market corrects or not there is no disputing that the market is at its highest risk of correction yet in this cycle. It's going to be a touchy year. Especially as the default assets/trophies from the oil industry and possibly the tech and banking industry start hitting the markets as forced sellers.
DonkeyApple said:
An unregulated market being referred to as the best performing asset class of 2015 by investors and assets being bought daily on leverage or used as collateral and all the while the salesmen, lenders and participants all talking the market up while little old ladies in Timbuktu are talking about how well 911 prices are performing? Those are the key signs that a market is beyond the point of rational value and picking up pace towards a correction.
Add three years of rebasing of commodities, the sudden oil war and subsequent plummet, fears over Chinese growth and their sudden implementation of capital controls, a strong stock market correction, a very sudden and clear sell off, possible rebasing, of major tech stocks. Oh and genuine concerns of a new banking crisis. And through it all more and more collectors are going into margin calls. And the banking layoffs from Christmas probably won't be finding replacement jobs for a while so be selling toys to pay school fees, mortgages and to keep the wife in the expected way.
Whether 2016 transpires to be the year the market corrects or not there is no disputing that the market is at its highest risk of correction yet in this cycle. It's going to be a touchy year. Especially as the default assets/trophies from the oil industry and possibly the tech and banking industry start hitting the markets as forced sellers.
Hmmm, very interesting...thanks for that. Yes, I think I understand some of that. Add three years of rebasing of commodities, the sudden oil war and subsequent plummet, fears over Chinese growth and their sudden implementation of capital controls, a strong stock market correction, a very sudden and clear sell off, possible rebasing, of major tech stocks. Oh and genuine concerns of a new banking crisis. And through it all more and more collectors are going into margin calls. And the banking layoffs from Christmas probably won't be finding replacement jobs for a while so be selling toys to pay school fees, mortgages and to keep the wife in the expected way.
Whether 2016 transpires to be the year the market corrects or not there is no disputing that the market is at its highest risk of correction yet in this cycle. It's going to be a touchy year. Especially as the default assets/trophies from the oil industry and possibly the tech and banking industry start hitting the markets as forced sellers.
So, the message is, it's going to burst? And probably pretty soon this time?My question is:
How long will this effect take to hit classic car values at the more the "pond sediment" level that I and others (who don't make our livings in the financial sector) have an interest in? So, not the rarefied stratospheric atmosphere at the £100K-plus Ferraris, Porsches et al; more the thick primordial soup level of the sub-£10K cars that most ordinary and genuine car enthusiasts have to subsist upon?
My impression is that at this level the market is already completely over-cooked and saturated. Ordinary vendor's expectations have now outstripped the reality of what ordinary buyers will pay...in large, fuelled by what they have seen certain dealers "get away with" at the top-end of the market.
I posted this yesterday elsewhere on PH but essentially yesterday I scrolled through a full 50 pages of BMWs on the Car & Classic classified adverts website. That's close to 1000 cars, stretching right back to cars that were already for sale at the end of last year. By definition (because they are BMWs and not Ferraris etc) very few of these cars fall into the really high-end price category. That is, they are classic cars that one might expect 'ordinary folk' to be buying. However, in all of those 50 pages only three cars appear to have actually sold! And one of those was a car I sold on Saturday. The only explanation that I can think of, even allowing for time of year factors, is that the prices being asked are just simply too high for what is being offered. So in order to sell the prices need to come down.
I'd be interested in yours (and other people's) thoughts.
Thanks again.
Very interesting insight DA, cheers for that!
And Derin, I think myself if the likes of 964 Turbos drop by 30-40% over the next say 18 month, then it will push everything down pretty quickly too, right through E28 M5s & 500Es to E30 318iSs
I said it on another thread, but this auction is very interesting IMO: https://www.silverstoneauctions.com/race-retro-cla...
Some of the cars seem to have have slightly conservative estimates when compared to 2015 asking prices, but will these cars sell? e.g. An RS500 with estimate of £50k
If I was to make a call on it now, I think many won't hit reserve, and those that do sell will be below even those estimates. I am biased though, as I want 190 EvoII prices back nearer £30k again!
And Derin, I think myself if the likes of 964 Turbos drop by 30-40% over the next say 18 month, then it will push everything down pretty quickly too, right through E28 M5s & 500Es to E30 318iSs
I said it on another thread, but this auction is very interesting IMO: https://www.silverstoneauctions.com/race-retro-cla...
Some of the cars seem to have have slightly conservative estimates when compared to 2015 asking prices, but will these cars sell? e.g. An RS500 with estimate of £50k
If I was to make a call on it now, I think many won't hit reserve, and those that do sell will be below even those estimates. I am biased though, as I want 190 EvoII prices back nearer £30k again!
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