Tesla Model 3 revealed

[babatunde]

kambites said:

k-ink said:

Only if the wind is blowing in the right direction. The net pollution China makes will still be in the atmosphere for the world to breathe.

As stated, that's simply not true. Some of the pollution will be in the atmosphere; some of it will be on the ground; some of it will have degraded into things which aren't pollution or at least are less harmful pollution.

Even for things which don't degrade or fall to the ground, there are chemicals which are catastrophic for human health when breathed in but are beneficial at other points in the atmosphere (such as ozone).

Saying "pollution is pollution, wherever it's released" is simply not true.

And that's ignoring the fact that it's much easier and I dare say cheaper to control the amount of pollution generated when production points are reduced

[TransverseTight]

Here's an example of how air pollution works... I have Asthma so this is first hand. (And not so scienftic)
Until I was 23 I lived in Tamworth. Neer had Asthma.
More to West Brom 1 miles from teh M5/M6 junction, and 70 meter from a bust interstection and a bus stop which had about 4 buses a minute pulling off. Ended up with Ashtma.
Wehn I was 25 I spent 5 weeks working in Phoenix, AZ , right on the outskirts in a subdivision called Ahwatuke. Asthma disappeared while I was out there.
At 30 I moved back to Tamworth. My Asthma dissapered completely.
At 38 I moved in to Brum city centre in a flat. MY asthma returned.
At 40 I moved back to Tamworth and I've been Asthma free for 3 years.

The main Asthma antagonist from vehicle emissions is NOx.
The EU has "safe" limit of 40ug per m3 for NOx. A lot of UK cities are hitting over 200 on the worst days. And have annual average of over 80ug. I don't have figures for what the numbers are are you travel up the motorway sucking up the HGV exhaust emissions. But I bet it's on the high side! Add into that light commerical and private diesel and you can see the problem.

If you don't want to breathe crap air - buying an EV is jusdt the start point you've got to convince everyone else to get one too!

I'm not going to claim I drive an EV as I have Asthma, I only found all this out 8 months after buying mine. I have one as it drives so easy. No gear changing necessary to go from slowing down from 60 to 30 as you come to a round about and suddenly realise you have a gap... boom. Off you go. Sat in the middle lane at 65 and need to get to 75 to nip out into the fast lane... boom. Forget a track weapon - you want a road warrior. ;-)

[98elise]

Tuna said:

It would have to be very low miles. A typical UK domestic solar installation will get you about 900 miles a year in a Tesla - and that requires that you have it plugged in at home during all daylight hours. In the three months of winter, you get virtually no useful energy at all. If you really wanted to be harsh and included the opportunity cost of a domestic solar installation (i.e. the interest you loose by putting your cash into solar panels), it works out at about 75 pence per mile.

I don't have solar, but a 4kWp should typically produce around 3,500 kWh per year. An EV will typically get around 3 miles per kWh which so should produce enough energy for 9000 miles?

Of course that would need the car to be plugged in during the day, however for people like my parents, who are retired or my wife who walks to work (so do about 2-3k miles per year), its entirely possible to power an EV from a domestic solar PV system.

If I've got my sums wrong then happy for someone to correct me.

[Tuna]

98elise said:

Tuna said:

It would have to be very low miles. A typical UK domestic solar installation will get you about 900 miles a year in a Tesla - and that requires that you have it plugged in at home during all daylight hours. In the three months of winter, you get virtually no useful energy at all. If you really wanted to be harsh and included the opportunity cost of a domestic solar installation (i.e. the interest you loose by putting your cash into solar panels), it works out at about 75 pence per mile.

I don't have solar, but a 4kWp should typically produce around 3,500 kWh per year. An EV will typically get around 3 miles per kWh which so should produce enough energy for 9000 miles?

Of course that would need the car to be plugged in during the day, however for people like my parents, who are retired or my wife who walks to work (so do about 2-3k miles per year), its entirely possible to power an EV from a domestic solar PV system.

If I've got my sums wrong then happy for someone to correct me.

My maths is terrible. I misread Tesla's miles per kwh as kwh per mile. Doh! I'll correct the original post to the correct value.

[rscott]

98elise said:

Tuna said:

It would have to be very low miles. A typical UK domestic solar installation will get you about 900 miles a year in a Tesla - and that requires that you have it plugged in at home during all daylight hours. In the three months of winter, you get virtually no useful energy at all. If you really wanted to be harsh and included the opportunity cost of a domestic solar installation (i.e. the interest you loose by putting your cash into solar panels), it works out at about 75 pence per mile.

I don't have solar, but a 4kWp should typically produce around 3,500 kWh per year. An EV will typically get around 3 miles per kWh which so should produce enough energy for 9000 miles?

Of course that would need the car to be plugged in during the day, however for people like my parents, who are retired or my wife who walks to work (so do about 2-3k miles per year), its entirely possible to power an EV from a domestic solar PV system.

If I've got my sums wrong then happy for someone to correct me.

So for someone like me who does about 8000 miles a year, I could get solar panels, a Tesla powerwall cell to charge up from the panels and never need to spend a single penny on electricity for my Tesla again?
Hmm. Man maths time - £5k for panels, £4.5k for Powerwall, plus £35k for Tesla with lots of options.. So up front costs of about £45k.

[Tuna]

rscott said:

So for someone like me who does about 8000 miles a year, I could get solar panels, a Tesla powerwall cell to charge up from the panels and never need to spend a single penny on electricity for my Tesla again?
Hmm. Man maths time - £5k for panels, £4.5k for Powerwall, plus £35k for Tesla with lots of options.. So up front costs of about £45k.

Ok, some really scary man maths ahead (going on my past performance, this will be wrong!)..

Buy a FORD Mondeo ECOnetic for £21K - 79mpg. You're left with £24K.

Put that in a bank earning 3% -> £720 a year. Buy diesel (current price about £4.87/gallon) = 148 gallons. At 79 mpg that gives you 11,680 miles per year free driving.

And when you're done with it, you still have £24K in the bank.

Edited by Tuna on Tuesday 26th April 15:20

[kambites]

I think putting petrol in a diesel Mondeo might be a mistake.

I suppose the question is whether it's worth twice the money to be able to drive a model-S rather than a diesel Mondeo.

[Tuna]

kambites said:

I think putting petrol in a diesel Mondeo might be a mistake.

I suppose the question is whether it's worth twice the money to be able to drive a model-S rather than a diesel Mondeo.

Bah. Now corrected It does improve figures (by about 50 miles a year) if you don't use petrol!

Of course, the £24K in the bank can then be spent on a therapist to get you over the fact you've been driving a Mondeo.

[rscott]

Tuna said:

rscott said:

So for someone like me who does about 8000 miles a year, I could get solar panels, a Tesla powerwall cell to charge up from the panels and never need to spend a single penny on electricity for my Tesla again?
Hmm. Man maths time - £5k for panels, £4.5k for Powerwall, plus £35k for Tesla with lots of options.. So up front costs of about £45k.

Ok, some really scary man maths ahead (going on my past performance, this will be wrong!)..

Buy a FORD Mondeo ECOnetic for £21K - 79mpg. You're left with £24K.

Put that in a bank earning 3% -> £720 a year. Buy petrol (current price about £4.89/gallon) = 147 gallons. At 79 mpg that gives you 11,631 miles per year free driving.

And when you're done with it, you still have £24K in the bank.

No no no... Looking for similar performance to the T3, plus a diesel's no good for my driving patterns (sub 10 mile journeys are the norm).

Buy a BMW 330i with a few options - £36k. 9k in the bank.
My annual mileage of 8000 at 44mpg, with petrol at £4.89 a gallon means £890 a year on petrol.
£9k in the bank earning 3% - 270 a year, so using £600+ a year of the savings on fuel, with petrol at current prices (which will only rise).

[98elise]

rscott said:

98elise said:

Tuna said:

It would have to be very low miles. A typical UK domestic solar installation will get you about 900 miles a year in a Tesla - and that requires that you have it plugged in at home during all daylight hours. In the three months of winter, you get virtually no useful energy at all. If you really wanted to be harsh and included the opportunity cost of a domestic solar installation (i.e. the interest you loose by putting your cash into solar panels), it works out at about 75 pence per mile.

I don't have solar, but a 4kWp should typically produce around 3,500 kWh per year. An EV will typically get around 3 miles per kWh which so should produce enough energy for 9000 miles?

Of course that would need the car to be plugged in during the day, however for people like my parents, who are retired or my wife who walks to work (so do about 2-3k miles per year), its entirely possible to power an EV from a domestic solar PV system.

If I've got my sums wrong then happy for someone to correct me.

So for someone like me who does about 8000 miles a year, I could get solar panels, a Tesla powerwall cell to charge up from the panels and never need to spend a single penny on electricity for my Tesla again?
Hmm. Man maths time - £5k for panels, £4.5k for Powerwall, plus £35k for Tesla with lots of options.. So up front costs of about £45k.

Techincally yes but only if you want to be very green regardless of cost. There will be losses involved in using a power wall as a store though, but were just talking rough numbers here. You would also need to factor in that PV is not constant through the year.

You would do better to export the power to the nextwork during the day, then charge from the network at night. Essentially your using the network as a buffer, and providing an element of peak smoothing. No additional fossil fuel would be used doing this.

[TransverseTight]

Mr GrimNasty said:

You didn't listen properly. It was comparing average figures for petrol/diesel with EV.

The poor air pollution situation is China is almost entirely because of the take up of EVs. They all fail the common sense test.

Your back of fag packet figures are junk, frankly.

Coal powers stations obviously produce more of the very same PMs, although the risk from PMs is vastly overstated and only a minority comes from private diesel cars anyway. So effectively the environmentalists are being hoisted by their own petard on that one.

All current 'green' solutions are simply bad - expensive, not effective or efficient, poor engineering solutions, not economically viable, requiring vast subsidies.

Poland, Spain, Germany and Denmark are all currently trying to extract themselves from their wind turbine catastrophe. And Venezuela has power cuts because it refuses to use it's own fossil fuel reserves for power generation.

The collapse of SunEdison is just the beginning, TESLA will go exactly the same way as there are many parallels.

Like solar and wind turbines, EVs are a poor technical solution with no substantial benefit.

You call my figures junk but you still didn't give me any better numbers. I'll be happy to take yours if you can provide some. I am keen to get facts not opinion. Mine aren't actually fag packet numbers they are UK specific, quoted from memory (to the nearest 50g/kWh as it's close enough).

The problem with Mr Lomburgs video is that it over simplified things in to a single Average. And there''s no such thing as an average. He uses average US grid emissions, and a Modern Mercedes A160 diesel (cough).
Most EVs are charged at night when gird emission are lower (coal throttles back but wind still blows)
50% of US EVs are in California which has well below average US grid emissions.
I can't quite remember the number but around 30-40% of US EV owners have their own solar power.

It just doesn't stick trying to blame the current average power grid efficiency on a cars potential emissions.

As he produced no reference I can't get onto how he derives the manufacturing figures, but for example Telsa is intending the Giga factory to be totally renewable powered, so I doubt the figures are accurate for the Model 3. Maybe for a EV made in China?? PS that's why it took me so long to respond - I've been trying to see if there's any paper with references behind the video to add clarity. Nope. I am genuinely interested so would love to see how they arrived at these numbers.

Lastly - why does he bring the EU carbon cost into US grid emissions? A) It's from another continent, and b) It's a permitting system not the actual cost of carbon cutting. The whole thing has been a sham with high carbon industries given too many starting credits so the price collapsed. So yeah use those figures if you want to use some figure to show how cheap carbon is.

What you've actually done is translocate what looks to be a US Oil sponsored piece of cack PR demoting EVs into the UK market. File under irrelevant.

If you like simple videos designed for 'Mericans you might like this one...
https://youtu.be/z9stsKVnJzo

This one actually has a full report behind it with the methodology.
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/52/18490.full.pdf

Unsurprisingly it comes to some similar conclusions, if you power an EV with coal it can be dirtier than gasoline, but this ignores the fact that most aren't!

[modeller]

TransverseTight said:

You call my figures junk but you still didn't give me any better numbers. I'll be happy to take yours if you can provide some. I am keen to get facts not opinion. Mine aren't actually fag packet numbers they are UK specific, quoted from memory (to the nearest 50g/kWh as it's close enough).

The problem with Mr Lomburgs video is that it over simplified things in to a single Average. And there''s no such thing as an average. He uses average US grid emissions, and a Modern Mercedes A160 diesel (cough).
Most EVs are charged at night when gird emission are lower (coal throttles back but wind still blows)
50% of US EVs are in California which has well below average US grid emissions.
I can't quite remember the number but around 30-40% of US EV owners have their own solar power.

It just doesn't stick trying to blame the current average power grid efficiency on a cars potential emissions.

As he produced no reference I can't get onto how he derives the manufacturing figures, but for example Telsa is intending the Giga factory to be totally renewable powered, so I doubt the figures are accurate for the Model 3. Maybe for a EV made in China?? PS that's why it took me so long to respond - I've been trying to see if there's any paper with references behind the video to add clarity. Nope. I am genuinely interested so would love to see how they arrived at these numbers.

Lastly - why does he bring the EU carbon cost into US grid emissions? A) It's from another continent, and b) It's a permitting system not the actual cost of carbon cutting. The whole thing has been a sham with high carbon industries given too many starting credits so the price collapsed. So yeah use those figures if you want to use some figure to show how cheap carbon is.

What you've actually done is translocate what looks to be a US Oil sponsored piece of cack PR demoting EVs into the UK market. File under irrelevant.

If you like simple videos designed for 'Mericans you might like this one...
https://youtu.be/z9stsKVnJzo

This one actually has a full report behind it with the methodology.
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/52/18490.full.pdf

Unsurprisingly it comes to some similar conclusions, if you power an EV with coal it can be dirtier than gasoline, but this ignores the fact that most aren't!

Quite!
Some people must believe crude magically jumps out of the ground and refines itself. Factor that in too and it's a no brainer that EVs are less polluting.

[babatunde]

rscott said:

Tuna said:

rscott said:

So for someone like me who does about 8000 miles a year, I could get solar panels, a Tesla powerwall cell to charge up from the panels and never need to spend a single penny on electricity for my Tesla again?
Hmm. Man maths time - £5k for panels, £4.5k for Powerwall, plus £35k for Tesla with lots of options.. So up front costs of about £45k.

Ok, some really scary man maths ahead (going on my past performance, this will be wrong!)..

Buy a FORD Mondeo ECOnetic for £21K - 79mpg. You're left with £24K.

Put that in a bank earning 3% -> £720 a year. Buy petrol (current price about £4.89/gallon) = 147 gallons. At 79 mpg that gives you 11,631 miles per year free driving.

And when you're done with it, you still have £24K in the bank.

No no no... Looking for similar performance to the T3, plus a diesel's no good for my driving patterns (sub 10 mile journeys are the norm).

Buy a BMW 330i with a few options - £36k. 9k in the bank.
My annual mileage of 8000 at 44mpg, with petrol at £4.89 a gallon means £890 a year on petrol.
£9k in the bank earning 3% - 270 a year, so using £600+ a year of the savings on fuel, with petrol at current prices (which will only rise).

Based on this Man Math I presume you've put down your deposit

Also cost of solar panels and storage is still falling while fuel is at an historic low.

[TransverseTight]

Anyone trying to use man math to jutify a Tesla on cost saving grounds. STOP. Go straight to Teslas website, book a test drive in an S70 ... the cheapest slowest car they currently make. When you've done that you probably won't need any numbers (apart from pricing) as you'll just want one. Simple as that. The 3 will be smaller, but not much slower and still as quiet and throw you at the horizon quicker than 90% of cars on the road. (Think 2.0 diesel or SUV).

It was the head of Audi that recently said once people buy an EV they are lost from the market for combustion engines for ever.

[RobDickinson]

Back to the model 3..

Tesla reveal it will have less than 60kwh battery and that costs less than $190 a kwh

[Flooble]

So it has about $10000-11000 of battery in it, before the rest of the car?

That leaves them with $24000 for everything else ... hmm.

[jkh112]

Flooble said:

So it has about $10000-11000 of battery in it, before the rest of the car?

That leaves them with $24000 for everything else ... hmm.

How much does an internal combustion engine and a gearbox cost?

[98elise]

Flooble said:

So it has about $10000-11000 of battery in it, before the rest of the car?

That leaves them with $24000 for everything else ... hmm.

Those figures are based on the model s cost per kWh, Musk thinks he can save 30% by producing his own batteries.

That puts it in the $7.5k area, so about £5k region.

[98elise]

jkh112 said:

Flooble said:

So it has about $10000-11000 of battery in it, before the rest of the car?

That leaves them with $24000 for everything else ... hmm.

How much does an internal combustion engine and a gearbox cost?

To be fair the Tesla also has a motor, gearbox, and speed contol system. Much simpler than an ICE, but you can't ignore it.

[rscott]

babatunde said:

rscott said:

Tuna said:

rscott said:

So for someone like me who does about 8000 miles a year, I could get solar panels, a Tesla powerwall cell to charge up from the panels and never need to spend a single penny on electricity for my Tesla again?
Hmm. Man maths time - £5k for panels, £4.5k for Powerwall, plus £35k for Tesla with lots of options.. So up front costs of about £45k.

Ok, some really scary man maths ahead (going on my past performance, this will be wrong!)..

Buy a FORD Mondeo ECOnetic for £21K - 79mpg. You're left with £24K.

Put that in a bank earning 3% -> £720 a year. Buy petrol (current price about £4.89/gallon) = 147 gallons. At 79 mpg that gives you 11,631 miles per year free driving.

And when you're done with it, you still have £24K in the bank.

No no no... Looking for similar performance to the T3, plus a diesel's no good for my driving patterns (sub 10 mile journeys are the norm).

Buy a BMW 330i with a few options - £36k. 9k in the bank.
My annual mileage of 8000 at 44mpg, with petrol at £4.89 a gallon means £890 a year on petrol.
£9k in the bank earning 3% - 270 a year, so using £600+ a year of the savings on fuel, with petrol at current prices (which will only rise).

Based on this Man Math I presume you've put down your deposit

Also cost of solar panels and storage is still falling while fuel is at an historic low.

Sadly not.. I'll be sticking with the MX-5 for a bit longer. It's something we're thinking about longer term though, possibly to replace the other half's Focus diesel.