Tesla Model 3 revealed
Discussion
Impasse said:
I can't. Neither can the other 70 or so homes who share my postcode. It's the same story for the identical building the other side of the green square. The converted period buildings in the same development have no provision for their residents to recharge any potential electric car purchase, that's another couple of hundred families who won't be able to make use of this technology. Not to mention the nearby twenty storey building with about four or five apartments per floor with zero recharging points per parking space.
My daughter lives in London. She's on the top floor in one of three freshly built 24 storey apartment blocks. Guess how many parking spaces in the underground car park have recharging facilities? I'll give you a clue, it's fewer than one.
So unfortunately, we're still a long way from the blanket acceptance that "you can charge from home".
Assuming you and your daughter have asked the landlord about this, what was their response?My daughter lives in London. She's on the top floor in one of three freshly built 24 storey apartment blocks. Guess how many parking spaces in the underground car park have recharging facilities? I'll give you a clue, it's fewer than one.
So unfortunately, we're still a long way from the blanket acceptance that "you can charge from home".
gangzoom said:
How many people actually fill up at a motorway petrol station?? In 15 years of driving I can count on one hand the number of time I actually used a motorway petrol station...Why on earth would I pay 5-10p/L more to fill up at a motorway petrol station when the local petrol stations near my house is so much cheaper?? I always use to fill up in town before any long trip.
Right, so you've just said that you haven't been to a motorway petrol station in 15 years and then decided that means no-one ever goes to petrol stations on motorways? I started that post by saying 'for long distance journeys' - by which I mean anything over an hour and a half or so - say 100 miles. After that, I can pretty much guarantee that someone in our family car will need the toilet, I wouldn't mind stretching my legs and depending on the time of day grab a snack. Our regular holiday drive is 400 miles and I certainly break that up (though I do recognise it's an unusually long journey by UK standards). So as you've not been to a service station in such a long time, let me tell you the places are rammed.
Now if you take Tesla's 200 mile range and allow for winter driving conditions and suddenly it's only 120 miles (drivers have reported loosing 40% range or more in poor conditions). That Christmas getaway is not so simple is it?
Of course, it's only once a year that things are so bad for us - and I'm sure we're in the minority of families. But funnily enough if you take the 26 million cars on the road and account for that once a year need, you still have a shedload of people using service stations. A typical service station with a dozen pumps can fill up say 140 cars in an hour. A typical Tesla supercharger station (they average six charging points) can fill up 12. That's an order of magnitude difference.
The thing is, I'm (still) not saying this makes EVs a bad idea - but some of the challenges up ahead for serious mainstream adoption cannot just be waved away.
Impasse said:
Guess how many parking spaces in the underground car park have recharging facilities? I'll give you a clue, it's fewer than one.
So unfortunately, we're still a long way from the blanket acceptance that "you can charge from home".
1. No one remotely suggested it was "blanket acceptance".So unfortunately, we're still a long way from the blanket acceptance that "you can charge from home".
2. Underground car parks tend to have power making them easy and cheap to install a power socket.
3. Newsflash: EV's aren't for everyone and don't have to be.
RobDickinson said:
Fast charging should speed up now, its 30min in 2016, 2025 what 5min or something
I think the problem then is not the battery but the delivery. Superchargers deliver 120kW to achieve 30 minute charge times. To get to 5 minutes, you're looking at 720kW - that's typical output of a large wind turbine, or the supply for ten homes just to charge a single car. Just having a cable thick enough to take that load to the car would be interesting 
Tuna said:
gangzoom said:
How many people actually fill up at a motorway petrol station?? In 15 years of driving I can count on one hand the number of time I actually used a motorway petrol station...Why on earth would I pay 5-10p/L more to fill up at a motorway petrol station when the local petrol stations near my house is so much cheaper?? I always use to fill up in town before any long trip.
Right, so you've just said that you haven't been to a motorway petrol station in 15 years and then decided that means no-one ever goes to petrol stations on motorways? I started that post by saying 'for long distance journeys' - by which I mean anything over an hour and a half or so - say 100 miles. After that, I can pretty much guarantee that someone in our family car will need the toilet, I wouldn't mind stretching my legs and depending on the time of day grab a snack. Our regular holiday drive is 400 miles and I certainly break that up (though I do recognise it's an unusually long journey by UK standards). So as you've not been to a service station in such a long time, let me tell you the places are rammed.
Now if you take Tesla's 200 mile range and allow for winter driving conditions and suddenly it's only 120 miles (drivers have reported loosing 40% range or more in poor conditions). That Christmas getaway is not so simple is it?
Of course, it's only once a year that things are so bad for us - and I'm sure we're in the minority of families. But funnily enough if you take the 26 million cars on the road and account for that once a year need, you still have a shedload of people using service stations. A typical service station with a dozen pumps can fill up say 140 cars in an hour. A typical Tesla supercharger station (they average six charging points) can fill up 12. That's an order of magnitude difference.
The thing is, I'm (still) not saying this makes EVs a bad idea - but some of the challenges up ahead for serious mainstream adoption cannot just be waved away.
Tuna said:
A typical service station with a dozen pumps can fill up say 140 cars in an hour. A typical Tesla supercharger station (they average six charging points) can fill up 12. That's an order of magnitude difference.
So we could get to roughly 10% of the car parc before it became a problem - IF the supercharger stations were in every service station and stayed at just 6 points rather than, you know, growing with demand.It's a 37m UK car parc so 3.7m EVs which at say 20% of the current (peak) new car sales of 2.7m per annum would take us 7 years.
It's going to go "mainstream" as a second/short distance car first anyway isn't it?
For every two car family it would be quite extreme to go 100% EV.
Far more sensible to keep an ICE one for the longer journeys.
So in reality we could get to what 30-40% of the car parc in EVs almost exclusively charged at home?
walm said:
1. No one remotely suggested it was "blanket acceptance".
2. Underground car parks tend to have power making them easy and cheap to install a power socket.
3. Newsflash: EV's aren't for everyone and don't have to be.
We're continually being told (on this thread and others) that EVs are the future. But now it seems they're only the future for some. Wouldn't that make them more of a niche, almost hobby-like? Technology that isn't or can't be accepted by a majority won't have a particularly rosy financial outlook and if it's not financially viable then how long will they survive on Government grants?2. Underground car parks tend to have power making them easy and cheap to install a power socket.
3. Newsflash: EV's aren't for everyone and don't have to be.
Impasse said:
walm said:
1. No one remotely suggested it was "blanket acceptance".
2. Underground car parks tend to have power making them easy and cheap to install a power socket.
3. Newsflash: EV's aren't for everyone and don't have to be.
We're continually being told (on this thread and others) that EVs are the future. But now it seems they're only the future for some. Wouldn't that make them more of a niche, almost hobby-like? Technology that isn't or can't be accepted by a majority won't have a particularly rosy financial outlook and if it's not financially viable then how long will they survive on Government grants?2. Underground car parks tend to have power making them easy and cheap to install a power socket.
3. Newsflash: EV's aren't for everyone and don't have to be.
And in that country mile sits every single existing Auto OEM (since none of them have 100% share).
Technology that "can't be accepted by a majority" can have a phenomenal financial outlook.
Any OEM would KILL for 20% market share.
Now in reality the OEMs will catch up with Tesla so that 20%+ share for dedicated EVs would be spread among more than one manufacturer.
But naysayers insisting on this ridiculous binary "everyone has to have one or it fails" mantra just sound like those guys who suggested the iPhone would have limited appeal since it didn't have a keyboard.
walm said:
There is a country mile between "niche/hobby-like" and "blanket acceptance".
And in that country mile sits every single existing Auto OEM (since none of them have 100% share).
Technology that "can't be accepted by a majority" can have a phenomenal financial outlook.
Any OEM would KILL for 20% market share.
Now in reality the OEMs will catch up with Tesla so that 20%+ share for dedicated EVs would be spread among more than one manufacturer.
But naysayers insisting on this ridiculous binary "everyone has to have one or it fails" mantra just sound like those guys who suggested the iPhone would have limited appeal since it didn't have a keyboard.
Would that be the iPhone that has reached saturation point so that sales have fallen? Are EVs the future of motoring? No, not unless massive and costly steps are taken to ensure they are accessible for all. We're nowhere near that and if there's no money in supplying the infrastructure then there's no commercial reason to construct or support it.And in that country mile sits every single existing Auto OEM (since none of them have 100% share).
Technology that "can't be accepted by a majority" can have a phenomenal financial outlook.
Any OEM would KILL for 20% market share.
Now in reality the OEMs will catch up with Tesla so that 20%+ share for dedicated EVs would be spread among more than one manufacturer.
But naysayers insisting on this ridiculous binary "everyone has to have one or it fails" mantra just sound like those guys who suggested the iPhone would have limited appeal since it didn't have a keyboard.
At the moment the various manufacturers can't even agree on the shape of the plug so predictions for anything more fundamental requires some heavily rose tinted spectacles.
Meanwhile, Toyota have sold over eight million of their hybrid powered vehicles. No fanfare, no slathering fanboism, no bulletins on the BBC News. Just solid, usable, accessible, vehicles.
Impasse said:
walm said:
1. No one remotely suggested it was "blanket acceptance".
2. Underground car parks tend to have power making them easy and cheap to install a power socket.
3. Newsflash: EV's aren't for everyone and don't have to be.
We're continually being told (on this thread and others) that EVs are the future. But now it seems they're only the future for some. Wouldn't that make them more of a niche, almost hobby-like? Technology that isn't or can't be accepted by a majority won't have a particularly rosy financial outlook and if it's not financially viable then how long will they survive on Government grants?2. Underground car parks tend to have power making them easy and cheap to install a power socket.
3. Newsflash: EV's aren't for everyone and don't have to be.
Different driving patterns have different requirements - a diesel is no good for mine, but an EV or petrol would be. A Tesla would have a better balance of economy and performance compared to other options in the same price range.
Impasse said:
walm said:
1. No one remotely suggested it was "blanket acceptance".
2. Underground car parks tend to have power making them easy and cheap to install a power socket.
3. Newsflash: EV's aren't for everyone and don't have to be.
We're continually being told (on this thread and others) that EVs are the future. But now it seems they're only the future for some. Wouldn't that make them more of a niche, almost hobby-like? Technology that isn't or can't be accepted by a majority won't have a particularly rosy financial outlook and if it's not financially viable then how long will they survive on Government grants?2. Underground car parks tend to have power making them easy and cheap to install a power socket.
3. Newsflash: EV's aren't for everyone and don't have to be.
EV is just another drivetrain, that will suit a lot of people, but not all of them. If you want a simple reliable and powerful drivetrain, then an EV is suitable. If you want a V8 soundtrack and the ability to splash and dash endlessly, then an EV is not for you.
Impasse said:
Would that be the iPhone that has reached saturation point so that sales have fallen? Are EVs the future of motoring? No, not unless massive and costly steps are taken to ensure they are accessible for all.
I am quoting this because it nicely sums up the ridiculous straw man argument.EVs do not have to be "accessible for all" to be a very important and HUGE part of the future of motoring.
What on earth makes you think ANY car needs to solve 100% of the use cases - that's bonkers and obviously false (as shown by your very own hybrid example!).
Oh and I am pretty sure Elon Musk, Sergio Marchionne and Bill Ford would KILL to have HALF Apple's market share!!
Elon Musk's other electric venture not doing so well
http://fortune.com/2016/05/09/solarcity-cuts-panel...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/09/solarcity-plunges-1...
http://fortune.com/2016/05/09/solarcity-cuts-panel...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/09/solarcity-plunges-1...
Impasse said:
Are EVs the future of motoring? No, not unless massive and costly steps are taken to ensure they are accessible for all. We're nowhere near that and if there's no money in supplying the infrastructure then there's no commercial reason to construct or support it.
Unfortunately personal observations/experience turned into conjecture rarely gets a good understanding of the true market. Given that more than 73% of cars are parked somewhere they can charge, there's a lot of scope of growth from the current 0.16% of cars on the roads that are EVs and the 1% of total sales.
http://www.racfoundation.org/motoring-faqs/mobilit...
Your left with a few people who can't charge at home because they don't have a regular private parking spot, but there are ways to deal with this cost effectively. I know as I've currently got 26 pages of a yet to be completed business plan done on how to do it! (But obviously not going to reveal it all here). It's on ice currently due to other commitments and making more money elsewhere ;-)
One thing a lot of people get wrapped up in is rapid charging, yes it's needed, but as batteries get bigger, what's going to be needed much more is destination charging. If you can do 200 miles+ then the chances are you'll do a lot more 80-150 mile journeys than you do 200 mile+ journeys. IF you want to do say 110 miles in winter (Brum to London or Manchester for example) then what you want is somewhere to charge at the other end at 22kw+, while you have your meeting/appointment/visit and can jump back in the car a a few hours later with enough charge to get home. People will not stop mid journey to charge if they can charge while parked and start out with enough range to get home.
Likewise at the lower cheaper end of the market is going to be cars similar to current gen EVs with sub 100 mile batteries. The Ford Fiestas and Fiat Cinqucentos of the EV world. From now until eternity a 20kWh battery will cost 1/3 the price of a 60kWh battery, so to get costs down smaller battereis will be used. That and the PHEVs that are more popular than EVs... Mitsubishi Outlander outsells everything else on the market last time I checked. Catching up with the Leaf in Market Launch to date sales for cars with a plug socket. Cars like the Audi Etron VW GTE, and Merc 350e all have relatively small batteries. (PS Audi Should have checked the French dictionary as Etron translates to “Turd” LOL). These need charging more often to do any serious length of commute. No one will stop to charge a 10kWh battery mid journey to get another 20 miles range. But plug in at work/town centre car park... yep. Range doubled.
By 2023 I'm willing to wager a Ford Focus EV will cost the same price as a Ford petrol/diesel and by then sales of EVs will by higher than diesel / petrol combined (though I include the caveat this includes PHEVs not just battery only cars!). A lot of people want the reassurance on their first EV that they have the back up of petrol (me included), and for many a small range extender would be a better solution to the rare long trip than another 40kWh of batteries. Mazda and Nissan are rumoured to be working on such vehicles, in Mazda's cases using their compact rotary power units.
Impasse said:
At the moment the various manufacturers can't even agree on the shape of the plug so predictions for anything more fundamental requires some heavily rose tinted spectacles.
Actually it's kind of been agreed a long time ago. For destination charging on "fast" aka 7-43kW charging it's Type 2 Menenkes. A connector that can take anything from 3.6kW 7.2kw AC single phase or 11, 22kW or 43kW AC 3 phase. Via the addition of 2 extra pins to make it a Combined charging system, (CCS) it can do (currently) up to 50kW DC, though the specs cover up to 400kW at 400amps 1000V. CCS has been mandated by the EU as being required as a connector on all new public chargers from 2018.This doesn't mean other systems can't be used, but a rapid charge point has to include CCS. As electricity is just electricity it's not like petrol and diesel for the different heads. Via some internal switching all that's required after the AC>DC conversion is another circuit to add the comms stuff (pilot signals and handshaking) and a different connector cable. So from 1 power unit you can provide AC43kW via Type2, Chademo, or CCS.
http://www.dbtcev.fr/universal-quick-charger-quick...
http://new.abb.com/ev-charging/multi-standard/terr...
http://www.siemens.co.uk/traffic/pool/documents/br...
I know of at least 1 10 head system that's currently in development using a bank of AC>DC converters which can be shared out among whatever cars are connected. So 1 car might have just arrived and be pulling 100kW while another is only nibbling 10kW as it's nearly charged.
Chademo was a standard agreed by Japanese manufacturers and is supported on current units. It's rumoured that because of the mandate for CCS in the EU the Japanese manufacturers may swap over at some point. I've used both and CCS is a much simpler head... works more like a 13A plug by just pushing in. No levers or buttons to press.
Impasse said:
Meanwhile, Toyota have sold over eight million of their hybrid powered vehicles. No fanfare, no slathering fanboism, no bulletins on the BBC News. Just solid, usable, accessible, vehicles.
Or written correctly ...Meanwhile, Toyota with over a decade head start, have sold over eight million of their petrol powered hybrid vehicles. Lots of fanfares, slathering fanboism, and bulletins on the BBC News. Just solid, usable, accessible, vehicles, which are a bit boring and stodgy to drive, if slightly more efficient in urban environments. Toyota believe hydrogen is the future, but haven't yet worked out where to get the hydrogen from
in a way that isn't more environmentally damaging than oil or less energy intensive than just charging a battery with renewable energy, instead of using it to electrolyse hydrogen, which loses 75% of the input electricity.
Toyota really needs to buy some more baskets to put some eggs in, just in case they are wrong. I'm looking forward to getting a PHEV GT86... but I fear I may just have to build my own!
Edited by TransverseTight on Tuesday 10th May 23:15
Tuna said:
I think the problem then is not the battery but the delivery. Superchargers deliver 120kW to achieve 30 minute charge times. To get to 5 minutes, you're looking at 720kW - that's typical output of a large wind turbine, or the supply for ten homes just to charge a single car. Just having a cable thick enough to take that load to the car would be interesting
As above current spec for CCS is 350kw in 2016, up from 150kw 2015. So over double. Nice simple cable and system.700kw not so scary to imagine now is it.
RobDickinson said:
Tuna said:
I think the problem then is not the battery but the delivery. Superchargers deliver 120kW to achieve 30 minute charge times. To get to 5 minutes, you're looking at 720kW - that's typical output of a large wind turbine, or the supply for ten homes just to charge a single car. Just having a cable thick enough to take that load to the car would be interesting
As above current spec for CCS is 350kw in 2016, up from 150kw 2015. So over double. Nice simple cable and system.700kw not so scary to imagine now is it.
If you have some pylons near by...
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/11-KV-1000-...
If not think a slightly bigger version of this... which is only a 20ft container.
http://www.gdgenerator.com/container-generator/208...
When you've been looking anything is possible. It's then down to commerical viability and market entrance timing
TransverseTight said:
Impasse said:
Are EVs the future of motoring? No, not unless massive and costly steps are taken to ensure they are accessible for all. We're nowhere near that and if there's no money in supplying the infrastructure then there's no commercial reason to construct or support it.
Unfortunately personal observations/experience turned into conjecture rarely gets a good understanding of the true market. Given that more than 73% of cars are parked somewhere they can charge, there's a lot of scope of growth from the current 0.16% of cars on the roads that are EVs and the 1% of total sales.
TransverseTight said:
Mazda and Nissan are rumoured to be working on such vehicles, in Mazda's cases using their compact rotary power units.
And here's where optimism and reality clash. I can tell you with certainty that Nissan has been working on such vehicles for a long time. They demonstrated the Infiniti Emerg-E Hybrid at the 2012 Geneva show, which itself was based on the Evora Hybrid demonstrator shown by Lotus two years earlier. The point with a lot of these technologies is not whether it can be done, but whether the large car manufacturers want to commit to it. Tesla has no backup plan - it's all electric or nothing and they want to sell you the dream that EVs are the only solution to the problem. They have to sell you that dream, or they're dead in the water. For the large manufacturers (who are actually making money), gambling on what could turn out to be a dead end is simply not attractive.Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff