Tesla Model 3 revealed

[Tuna]

The Vambo said:

Tuna said:

Buying a brand new car that depreciates like a stone in the first few years to save fuel is a very strange need.

If you think cars are going to be the vanguard of autonomous vehicles then you are very wrong.

Wagons, trucks, HGVs that burn £50k pa in fuel will be the beginning. In an industry where the margins are so slim £5K-£10K per unit per year efficiency saving is the difference between flourishing and bankruptcy.

Cars will be the second wave and Tesla are on pole to capitalise.

I don't disagree, but I'm not sure how Tesla are especially in place to capitalise? Volvo, Toyota and Ford are all putting lots of research into driver assistance and 'self driving' modes. I think I'm right in saying that none of the other car manufacturers have taken Tesla up on battery production, and there are plenty of other people in the space with knowledge of electric drive systems. If anything, trucks and vans are easier to get into as the form factor is a little less dependent on fashion. I'm sure Tesla have developed plenty of IP, but I'm not aware of any really special sauce they're putting in their cars that other manufacturers aren't capable of matching.

As far as autonomous vehicles are concerned, it's pretty clear that the 'last mile' is the problem, and urban driving in general is going to be the big hold-out against autonomy (our urban spaces are just way too unpredictable for computers to navigate). As you say, the first thing likely to be automated is the big HGV going between warehouses on the motorway system, though given the fuel and vehicle costs (regardless of how they're powered), the price of having a fleshy human in the cabin is probably not the biggest worry of a transport company and has some fairly obvious benefits.

Rather like the Amazon drone thing, there's a strong feeling that there are a lot of people piling in there because it *might* be big in the future. Silicon Valley lawyers are keen to get the patents in early, and if anyone does happen to hit the perfect combination of use-case and solution you have instant scale (which investors like). Investing a few tens of millions in research is relatively easy in those circumstances, but it doesn't guarantee a big shift in real-world behaviour. My suspicion is that the real shift will come from something really left of field (like some of the wacky battery tech people are exploring, but currently failing to get from the lab to the real world).

[DonkeyApple]

I think it's fair to argue that most companies wanting autonomous tech would favour a deal with an entity such as Google over Tesla just as firms requiring battery packs are favouring deals with the Chinese over Tesla. And more importantly for Tesla, why is any consumer going to favour their end product over those of the premium multinational manufacturers when they start delivering EVs. At the moment Tesla look more like being a Nokia than an iPhone in this game.

[Guvernator]

DonkeyApple said:

I think it's fair to argue that most companies wanting autonomous tech would favour a deal with an entity such as Google over Tesla just as firms requiring battery packs are favouring deals with the Chinese over Tesla. And more importantly for Tesla, why is any consumer going to favour their end product over those of the premium multinational manufacturers when they start delivering EVs. At the moment Tesla look more like being a Nokia than an iPhone in this game.

Yep I'd agree with that, Tesla are successful at the moment as they are just about the only EV game in town right now. As soon as other manufacturers get their act together, which is happening even as we speak, then I don't think the future for Tesla will look quite as rosy.

[RobDickinson]

Elon isnt after dominating the EV car market. He's wanting to kick start it and make it relevant, as big auto have basically buried the EV because they dont want change.

If Tesla end up as a small player in a big market Elon will be happy. Which is why they made their patents available to all.

[DonkeyApple]

RobDickinson said:

Elon isnt after dominating the EV car market. He's wanting to kick start it and make it relevant, as big auto have basically buried the EV because they dont want change.

If Tesla end up as a small player in a big market Elon will be happy. Which is why they made their patents available to all.

That's not strictly true. He is after dominating the battery supply market and the more EVs there are the more demand for batteries there will be, hence he has opened up certain patents. The altruism is mostly PR.

But his real problem is that he is in a fight with the Chinese who are bigger battery suppliers than him, control most of the raw material supplies lines and whose battery businesses are backed by the State. He can't beat the Chinese. He can only be the second player that people who can't deal with the Chinese must use instead.

His domestic power concept and the roof tiles probably has more legs than the automotive side but his biggest problem is his new president. Trump isn't going to be favourable to non oil enterprise.

[Tuna]

RobDickinson said:

Elon isnt after dominating the EV car market. He's wanting to kick start it and make it relevant, as big auto have basically buried the EV because they dont want change.

If Tesla end up as a small player in a big market Elon will be happy. Which is why they made their patents available to all.

PR fluff. Musk wants to build a big business. At this stage he cannot afford to end up a small player, because there will be a lot of investors who certainly aren't in this for altruistic reasons. On top of that, if he leaves half a million car owners without a viable manufacturer to back up their vehicles, he'll be sued seven ways to hell.

The "oh, but I never wanted to be successful" thing is a get out of jail free card when people start examining Tesla too closely. Look how he runs Space-X, or some of the legal cases that have followed him and you can see he is very much committed to coming out number one.

[anonymous-user]

This is turning in to the EV1 project...

[jamoor]

sleepera6 said:

This is turning in to the EV1 project...

Not really, the EV1 didn't change an industry or anything for that matter.

[RobDickinson]

Small player in the auto industry isnt a bloke in a shed

500,000 model 3's a year , 100,000 model S's and 50,000 model X's is a good business but still doesnt get them on the top 20 list of manufacturers. Gigafactory1 maxed out would let them build 1.5 million cars and climb to about 15th overall. still hardly a big player.

[bodhi]

jamoor said:

Not really, the EV1 didn't change an industry or anything for that matter.

Neither have Tesla. I mean it's great that all thr major manufacturers have EVs in the works, but if you take the subsidies away, would anyone actually want to buy them?

[jamoor]

bodhi said:

Neither have Tesla. I mean it's great that all thr major manufacturers have EVs in the works, but if you take the subsidies away, would anyone actually want to buy them?

Are you looking at today or 10-15 years down the line?

[simonrockman]

RobDickinson said:

Small player in the auto industry isnt a bloke in a shed

500,000 model 3's a year , 100,000 model S's and 50,000 model X's is a good business but still doesnt get them on the top 20 list of manufacturers. Gigafactory1 maxed out would let them build 1.5 million cars and climb to about 15th overall. still hardly a big player.

Look at the money. Teslas are £60k plus, and the price point has drifted up. In this sector they are a big player.

[98elise]

Guvernator said:

DonkeyApple said:

I think it's fair to argue that most companies wanting autonomous tech would favour a deal with an entity such as Google over Tesla just as firms requiring battery packs are favouring deals with the Chinese over Tesla. And more importantly for Tesla, why is any consumer going to favour their end product over those of the premium multinational manufacturers when they start delivering EVs. At the moment Tesla look more like being a Nokia than an iPhone in this game.

Yep I'd agree with that, Tesla are successful at the moment as they are just about the only EV game in town right now. As soon as other manufacturers get their act together, which is happening even as we speak, then I don't think the future for Tesla will look quite as rosy.

I'd disagree. These are the current BEV cars you can buy, or order:
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
Peugeot iOn
Citroën C-ZERO
Nissan Leaf
Chevrolet Volt
Vahuhall/Opel Ampera
Smart electric drive
Volvo C30 DRIVe Electric
Ford Focus Electric
Renault Fluence Z.E.
Tesla Model S
Renault Zoe
Chevrolet Spark EV
Fiat 500e
Volkswagen e-Up!
BMW i3
BMW Brilliance Zinoro 1E (China only)
Kia Soul EV
Volkswagen e-Golf
Mercedes-Benz B-Class Electric Drive
Tesla Model X
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Chevrolet Volt
Tesla Model 3

I've ordered a Tesla because they are an electric car company, not a ICE car company tentatively dipping their toe in the water. 400,000 consumers have placed orders for the Model 3, how many have placed orders for the other cars?

I also think the average consumer is not going to buy a more expensive version of an ICE model. If mainstream companies want to succeed in the EV market then they need to build an EV brand that appears to be the future.

[otolith]

bodhi said:

Neither have Tesla. I mean it's great that all thr major manufacturers have EVs in the works, but if you take the subsidies away, would anyone actually want to buy them?

At current prices, certainly fewer people would be able to justify the price of a cheap EV. But the maximum grant is £4500, I'm not sure that's a major factor in the decision to spend 50-100k on a Tesla. As volume builds and costs drop, the need for grants will fall away.

[Krikkit]

98elise said:

I'd disagree. These are the current BEV cars you can buy, or order:
Chevrolet Bolt

An aside... But is the Bolt actually coming to Europe?

IMO the Model 3 is a bit of a step-change because it *might* give an affordable, all-electric real-world 200+ mile range. If it does I'd want one without question.

[Guvernator]

98elise said:

I'd disagree. These are the current BEV cars you can buy, or order:
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
Peugeot iOn
Citroën C-ZERO
Nissan Leaf
Chevrolet Volt
Vahuhall/Opel Ampera
Smart electric drive
Volvo C30 DRIVe Electric
Ford Focus Electric
Renault Fluence Z.E.
Tesla Model S
Renault Zoe
Chevrolet Spark EV
Fiat 500e
Volkswagen e-Up!
BMW i3
BMW Brilliance Zinoro 1E (China only)
Kia Soul EV
Volkswagen e-Golf
Mercedes-Benz B-Class Electric Drive
Tesla Model X
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Chevrolet Volt
Tesla Model 3

Sorry but that list reads like a whose who list of the worst cars ever. When I said the Tesla is the only game in town, what I really meant was it's the only EV car I wouldn't be embarrassed to drive around in. When the mainstream manufacturers start building normal EV cars is when Tesla will have some real competition.

Really just what is it with all these "quirky" EV's anyway? Is there some unwritten rule I don't know about which states that every EV car must look like a small plastic piece of crap that's someones bad idea of a futuristic car?

[Amateurish]

Krikkit said:

An aside... But is the Bolt actually coming to Europe?

IMO the Model 3 is a bit of a step-change because it *might* give an affordable, all-electric real-world 200+ mile range. If it does I'd want one without question.

Musk says it will have better range than the Bolt (238 miles EPA). As for affordable - probably not so much. They just deleted the S60 from the line-up, so the cheapest Model S is now £70k.

[Tuna]

98elise said:

I've ordered a Tesla because they are an electric car company, not a ICE car company tentatively dipping their toe in the water. 400,000 consumers have placed orders for the Model 3, how many have placed orders for the other cars?

It's very easy to place an 'order' for something that has been promised to change the world. Given that ICE companies now produce cars that will happily cover 100,000 miles, and can approach double that, I'd be happier going with a company that knows all of the thousands of things that can go wrong in a car than a company that is still learning. Tesla has absolutely no advantage over an ICE company when it comes to experience of developing a car with a decent lifespan.

98elise said:

I also think the average consumer is not going to buy a more expensive version of an ICE model. If mainstream companies want to succeed in the EV market then they need to build an EV brand that appears to be the future.

Unless Tesla can break the laws of physics their cars are always going to be a more expensive version of an ICE model until battery technology makes a step change. Changing the power plant doesn't give your car any magic powers, and as soon as people realise that, they'll see EV vs ICE as about as exciting as Petrol vs Diesel. Think about it, when diesel became a thing in the 90's, you could suddenly buy a clean, efficient car that did half as many miles again as the petrol equivalent on the same cost of fuel. I don't think anyone at the time proposed creating a new 'Diesel only car company'. And those new diesel cars had so much low down torque!!! The reality is that in terms of day to day driving a Tesla doesn't do anything an ICE car can't do. I'll agree that it's a nicer place to be, but if you spend £70K on any car, that's pretty much what you'll get.

[98elise]

Guvernator said:

98elise said:

I'd disagree. These are the current BEV cars you can buy, or order:
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
Peugeot iOn
Citroën C-ZERO
Nissan Leaf
Chevrolet Volt
Vahuhall/Opel Ampera
Smart electric drive
Volvo C30 DRIVe Electric
Ford Focus Electric
Renault Fluence Z.E.
Tesla Model S
Renault Zoe
Chevrolet Spark EV
Fiat 500e
Volkswagen e-Up!
BMW i3
BMW Brilliance Zinoro 1E (China only)
Kia Soul EV
Volkswagen e-Golf
Mercedes-Benz B-Class Electric Drive
Tesla Model X
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Chevrolet Volt
Tesla Model 3

Sorry but that list reads like a whose who list of the worst cars ever. When I said the Tesla is the only game in town, what I really meant was it's the only EV car I wouldn't be embarrassed to drive around in. When the mainstream manufacturers start building normal EV cars is when Tesla will have some real competition.

Really just what is it with all these "quirky" EV's anyway? Is there some unwritten rule I don't know about which states that every EV car must look like a small plastic piece of crap that's someones bad idea of a futuristic car?

These are all Normal ICE cars with with a BEV option:

Ford Focus
Volkswagen Up
Kia Soul
Volkswagen Golf
Mercedes-Benz B-Class

The Merc is about the same price as a Tesla Model 3

Edited by 98elise on Wednesday 29th March 12:18

[98elise]

Tuna said:

98elise said:

I've ordered a Tesla because they are an electric car company, not a ICE car company tentatively dipping their toe in the water. 400,000 consumers have placed orders for the Model 3, how many have placed orders for the other cars?

It's very easy to place an 'order' for something that has been promised to change the world. Given that ICE companies now produce cars that will happily cover 100,000 miles, and can approach double that, I'd be happier going with a company that knows all of the thousands of things that can go wrong in a car than a company that is still learning. Tesla has absolutely no advantage over an ICE company when it comes to experience of developing a car with a decent lifespan.

They have the advantage that electric drivetrains are massively more simple and reliable than an ICE drivetrain. ICE cars are getting more complicated...

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

I've been fixing electrical and mechanical systems for 30 years (from missiles to generators) and the less moving parts the better, and if it has to move then its better if it doesn't need to touch another moving part.

Edited by 98elise on Wednesday 29th March 13:17