Investment Cars

Author
Discussion

DonkeyApple

54,921 posts

168 months

Wednesday 25th May 2016
quotequote all
The Moose said:
I'm not saying that debt levels are inline with 1999 levels (or greater or less for that matter).

What I am asking is whether you knew of a report indicating such. I find it interesting and would be interested to read more about that topic. From where I sit, it's a general feeling as opposed to a scientific conclusion if you will.

Personally, I agree that it feels like there's more debt in the market, however I'd like someone who is far cleverer than me to report as such!

As an aside, these days, it seems rather fashionable to have multiple routes to market for what is essentially the same product - seems to also be common in the insurance industry.

e.g. What used to be 'vehicle finance' and dealt with by 1 outfit could well now have multiple routes to market covering different niches such as:
  • New Vehicle Finance
  • Young Driver Vehicle Finance
  • Used Vehicle Finance
  • Classic Vehicle Finance
  • etc etc etc
Same funding source, same call centres etc
The closest you'll be able to get is to look at the accounts for a series of specialist lenders and see the huge upward trend post 2008 in the business they have been writing.

The banks post the crunch have been pushing vast sums through these firms so as to shift the end client risk off their books and be able to book the debt as corporate lending. The firms in the middle for this type of lending have done extremely well but if you look at the recruitment sites you'll see very few roles being marketed this year and while we won't know until they post their figures my gut feeling is that volume has fallen off a cliff since last Autumn when the oil rout ended the 'fast and loose' spending spree of the new economies as well as the oil centres.

I don't think we've come back from that which is why art hasn't been going anywhere, key property investment hubs have seen falling prices and supply of classic cars has risen but demand has clearly pulled back quite strongly. 2016 is going to transpire to be a breather year or an event at some point will tip one of these markets over the edge. With markets like classic cars there's no State support and no regulation so nothing to underpin the downside other than pure market forces.

We've been involved in sourcing some of the credit lines for specialist lenders and a couple of the tax schemes and everyone on that side has been drunk on cash for the last few years.

In 2006 I got nervous and sold all the things that I didn't think we're essential and ten years on I'm doing the same again. No idea whether we will see a fall but as far as I'm concerned the party is calming down in all these asset types anyway so the reward is falling as the risk is rising so I'm leaving.

spreadsheet monkey

4,544 posts

226 months

Wednesday 25th May 2016
quotequote all
Welshbeef said:
First mainstream derv Sierra 2.3D rare as hens teeth and groundbreaking in many ways. Not a very PH engine sure but none the less as investment goes any merit?
Other Sierras like the RS Cosworth were definitely rare and groundbreaking. I don't see much that was innovative about a 70 horsepower diesel engine borrowed from the Peugeot 505.

Welshbeef said:
Ford Orion
Hell no! Not even the 1600E.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Wednesday 25th May 2016
quotequote all
The Moose said:
Welshbeef said:
The Moose said:
Your point being?
That in most situations it would be very unclear how a car was or wasn't funded so to view and make a call at the macro level is nigh on impossible.

I wish I'd taken a good friends advice some 5 years ago on a 308 and a 190SL.... Wife put her foot down no more "toys". As I understand it between those two if bought in 2010 to value now I'd be sitting on what £150k clear profit? + the enjoyment of two stunning cars oh well.
But as one of the other posters said, only a small number of your options were debt based. If you can't make a macro level call as to whether debt is used to fund a vehicle purchase then you can't throw sweeping statements around that suggest that the amount of debt used to purchase vehicles is obscenely and almost dangerously high as it just isn't possible to know!

We turned down 2 McLaren F1s at £1,100,000 and £1,300,000 not that long ago - considered them a tad rich (which they were at the time). Those, today would have given a clear profit of over £10 mil and likely over £15 mil today...
Some other poster made the claims I simply listed possible outcomes.

Rovnumpty

128 posts

98 months

Thursday 26th May 2016
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Suppose it depends on your definition if 'stupid in price'.

Actual figures like 'gone up £50 grand', or simply gone up by 100% in value.

Rare stuff from the sports manafactuters such as porsche and ferrari will always go up (apart from the brief drop during the next burst bubble), as will the enthusiast stuff from the mainstream - BMW m cars, Ford RS etc.

The trick would be to spot the next less obvoius 'classic'. Porsche 928s were seroiusly unloved only a couple of years ago, and who could imagine the prices being paid for crappy old VW buses 20 years ago.

I reckon the best investment, for the average PHer anyway, would be to look at the stuff that was immensly popular when it came out, but is now considered very naff. The kids who coveted these cars 'back in the day' will eventually get old enough, with enough disposable income, to start chasing down the few cars that make it through the naff period unmolested. Look at the first 6 cylinder M3s (dont know the e-number) and early imprezas - Long time the refuge of the ned, but now starting to be apprectiated for what they are.

To that end, I think It'll be stuff like mk3 Range rovers, X5s, 'scene' cars like golf r32s and audi TTs, and odd stuff like converted vans and lifted pickups that be the next big thing.

PTF

4,252 posts

223 months

Thursday 26th May 2016
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The market has clearly gone mad for anything closely resembling a "future classic" or "investment car".

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/2016...

swisstoni

16,845 posts

278 months

Thursday 26th May 2016
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On the whole, modern kids have very little regard for cars.
The cars people wk over today may have very little resonance for the IPhone generation.
Can you see where this is going ??

cat with a hat

1,484 posts

117 months

Thursday 26th May 2016
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PTF said:
The market has clearly gone mad for anything closely resembling a "future classic" or "investment car".

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/2016...
This is just a few deluded people trying to be opportunistic.

Hugh Jarse

3,486 posts

204 months

Thursday 26th May 2016
quotequote all
3 million odd new cars added to market every year, few pearls amongst the tidal mud.
Conversely empty-nest-baby-boom-silver-foxes (ENBBSFs [copyright pending]) now lusting after 70s & 80s metal.

ATTAK Z

10,586 posts

188 months

Thursday 26th May 2016
quotequote all
cat with a hat said:
PTF said:
The market has clearly gone mad for anything closely resembling a "future classic" or "investment car".

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/2016...
This is just a few deluded people trying to be opportunistic.
also have a red MGB for sale ... is that not good value ?

McAndy

12,336 posts

176 months

Friday 27th May 2016
quotequote all
PTF said:
The market has clearly gone mad for anything closely resembling a "future classic" or "investment car".

http://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/2016...
Ridiculous.

twinturban

241 posts

121 months

Friday 27th May 2016
quotequote all
swisstoni said:
On the whole, modern kids have very little regard for cars.
The cars people wk over today may have very little resonance for the IPhone generation.
Can you see where this is going ??
A popular view but how do we explain interest in older classics, pre-war car and veteran cars? None of the current owners were around when they were new.

Cars like the Jaguar D-type, Aston DB5 or Ferrari 250 GTO are not just beautiful to old people viewed through a mist of nostalgia. They are beautiful to the human eye.

Eras go in and out of fashion and of course a car doesn't have to be beautiful to have appeal but the greats remain timeless objects of desire.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Friday 27th May 2016
quotequote all
twinturban said:
A popular view but how do we explain interest in older classics, pre-war car and veteran cars? None of the current owners were around when they were new.

Cars like the Jaguar D-type, Aston DB5 or Ferrari 250 GTO are not just beautiful to old people viewed through a mist of nostalgia. They are beautiful to the human eye.

Eras go in and out of fashion and of course a car doesn't have to be beautiful to have appeal but the greats remain timeless objects of desire.
275 GTB too

Isn't it the case that they are either ground breaking, stunning, have Motorsport provenance, used in a film, or so far ahead of the game in their era, the noise they make and I'd argue brand and high price are natural draws.

Then you have say the iconic Lotus Carlton, looks well it's a muscular Carlton interior is well big std apart from the speedo. But why is it so good? It was way faster than the M5 of its era 177mph, adverts were banned it was a hooligan (personally I like its beefy looks and unique colour).

swisstoni

16,845 posts

278 months

Friday 27th May 2016
quotequote all
twinturban said:
swisstoni said:
On the whole, modern kids have very little regard for cars.
The cars people wk over today may have very little resonance for the IPhone generation.
Can you see where this is going ??
A popular view but how do we explain interest in older classics, pre-war car and veteran cars? None of the current owners were around when they were new.

Cars like the Jaguar D-type, Aston DB5 or Ferrari 250 GTO are not just beautiful to old people viewed through a mist of nostalgia. They are beautiful to the human eye.

Eras go in and out of fashion and of course a car doesn't have to be beautiful to have appeal but the greats remain timeless objects of desire.
"A thing of beauty is a joy forever: its loveliness increases; it will never pass into nothingness." - John Keats.

I get that. An Escort Cosworth - not so much.

FlavaDave

213 posts

158 months

Friday 27th May 2016
quotequote all
I started a similar thread about 4 years ago: http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

Just had a re-read. I think the only one we got right was the Clio V6!

[Actually somebody did suggest a sierra cossie]

Edited by FlavaDave on Friday 27th May 10:57

CRA1G

6,499 posts

194 months

Friday 27th May 2016
quotequote all
I think this was missed...


But I'm happy...

Leins

9,415 posts

147 months

Friday 27th May 2016
quotequote all
FlavaDave said:
I started a similar thread about 4 years ago: http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

Just had a re-read. I think the only one we got right was the Clio V6!

[Actually somebody did suggest a sierra cossie]
Agreed. I would suggest that anything in that thread could probably now be bought if the savings from avoiding 4 years' worth of running costs were considered

robksw

5 posts

107 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
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Late model Defender in a good colour and XS spec.

F1GTRUeno

6,335 posts

217 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
quotequote all
Tuvra said:
The Beaver King said:
I still maintain that these are going to jump up in price in the near future:






You'd have to find a low mileage one, turbo/manual/T-bar will be the one to have.

I keep looking at them, but I can't justify holding onto it for 10 years and limiting the miles.
What makes you think that? What is so special about them against say an RX7, 300ZX, Supra, Skyline, 200SX etc of the time?

Genuine question BTW smile
Personally I think all of those are going to jump up in price over time.

My generation, the ones who grew up playing Gran Turismo as a kid will want a piece as we get into a financial position to run one as a weekend car or similar and values will skyrocket for either stock or tastefully modified versions.

Vyse

1,224 posts

123 months

Sunday 29th May 2016
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Honda FN2. Last of the great affordable NA engined cars.

k-ink

9,070 posts

178 months

Monday 30th May 2016
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Cars need to do at least one thing extremely well to be worth putting on a pedestal and being recognised. Being beautiful works of sculptural Art is enough for many. Alternatively being the finest drivers car of their time. Start combining multiple assets like this will result in something special.

The trouble is a hell of a lot of the latest booming "classics" don't do anything amazingly well at all. They are just mediocre, mass produces boxes. In a sane parallel universe they would be viewed as simply old cars. They were nothing special then and are nothing special now.

People are just trying to inflate the price of mediocrity just because a Ferrari 250 sold for a premium. Rather like how someone from Russia may buy a Mayfair pad for lottery prices, so someone in Stratford ends up asking a premium for their council bedsit.

The situation is daft to say the least. The correction will hopefully burn enough people to keep them away from flipping cars for a while.

Edited by k-ink on Monday 30th May 15:19