Brexit, and car buying habits

[robemcdonald]

mephistophelean said:

```=-09It depends on the what is negotiated on exit.

If we negotiate like Norway to be part of the economic trading area - then very little as it will be the same as now from a trading perspective. From a broader economic perspective this would be the best result. However, if we were to do this we would have to sign up to free movement of people as well. Given that for some Brexiters immigration is a big issue, I am not sure whether this will occur.

If we do something else, then tariffs may be imposed and then it is possible that the price of our cars would increase. For Jaguar, what could happen in this case is that the main office and potentially production would shift to Europe so impacting UK jobs but minimising the import tariffs put on Jaguar cars into Europe.

If we did manage to negotiate the same deal as Norway we would pay €107.4 net per capita. Of course our old deal was about £130 (from memory). Which is a massive chunk of the £350m a week that was supposed to go to the NHS.

And to the OP Sweden is in the EU (as previously mentioned) it might have been a good idea to understand what the EU was prior to voting (regardless of how you cast your vote)

I wonder how many other voters were so ill informed?

[EnglishTony]

A proportion of (virtually) all cars built in Britain contain parts made in the EU. Therefore they will be more expensive.

Also worth considering, how much EU money was going into the new TVR plant in Wales? And the Aston one?

[B.J.W]

It's been dead at our place for weeks - the vote has had a lot to do with it in my opinion. High Net Worth Individuals and Business Owners have been sitting tight, as opposed to spending £50k plus on a new car.

[405dogvan]

robemcdonald said:

I wonder how many other voters were so ill informed?

All of them - being nice maybe 90% had no idea what they were actually voting for (and less idea why)

Can we please not talk about Norway/EEA-style deals - that's insulting to everyone. We'd have all the downsides of the EU (having to obey their rules/accept their people) and none of the benefits (no say whatsoever in the rules!!) - nothing about the Leave campaign even hinted that was a likely outcome - it's not "leaving" anything (it's remaining there on poorer terms)

We voted Leave so we Leave - I look to the Govt to arrange that or explain why they can't, accept they've failed, resign and we'll start-over.

[mephistophelean]

405dogvan said:

All of them - being nice maybe 90% had no idea what they were actually voting for (and less idea why)

Can we please not talk about Norway/EEA-style deals - that's insulting to everyone. We'd have all the downsides of the EU (having to obey their rules/accept their people) and none of the benefits (no say whatsoever in the rules!!) - nothing about the Leave campaign even hinted that was a likely outcome - it's not "leaving" anything (it's remaining there on poorer terms)

We voted Leave so we Leave - I look to the Govt to arrange that or explain why they can't, accept they've failed, resign and we'll start-over.

Unfortunately this is the big schism within the Leave group that now has to be resolved. I can understand your position but there are many within Leave who do want a EEA style deal - apparently including Boris. Here's an example on Newsnight last night: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCghi2rVaWY&fe...

[ukkid35]

robemcdonald said:

I wonder how many other voters were so ill informed?

Very few people voted with their heads (myself included) we voted with our hearts, and then sought out arguments to justify our actions afterwards (no different the the rest of life really).

When the North East starts to see massive job losses, that won't be as a result of their votes, that will be because the EU/World/Everyone-else is being vindictive.

'Told you so' would earn me contempt, not respect for seeing the bigger picture. Not that I'll be insulated, I'll probably be living with my parents again by then.

[ukkid35]

On another note, in about three or four years time there will be some amazing car buying opportunities. But they have to be local, it won't be like 2008/2009 where there was a world wide recession, it will be more localised, so cars that are difficult to sell abroad will be the main beneficiaries. Think TVRs, Nobles and the like.

[blearyeyedboy]

robemcdonald said:

And to the OP Sweden is in the EU (as previously mentioned) it might have been a good idea to understand what the EU was prior to voting (regardless of how you cast your vote)

I wonder how many other voters were so ill informed?

I'll hold my hand up to my error (my Ambiwlans moment, I guess) but think you're a bit out of order to write such a cheap snide remark based on a momentary brain fart. Tis the forum way, I guess, but it's disappointing.

I'll bet an internet pint that very few posters tut-tutting over my error could list all the EU members first time, error free and without the help of Google.

On topic, do you think any of the Japanese owned factories have a long term future? Are some more likely to succeed than others? ( ie, is Swindon's chance any different from Sunderland's?)

Edited by blearyeyedboy on Saturday 25th June 20:36

[ukkid35]

blearyeyedboy said:

I guess, but it's disappointing.

You seem to be under the misapprehension that facts mattered.

How did the Out campaign get away with the 350m figure - total lie

How to the In campaign justify the £4,300 household figure - highly misleading

[daemon]

qska said:

I'm struggling to shift a 2003 CLK convertible at the moment, the ad had 1200 views, but no serious interest.

I dropped the price from £4k to 3.75k already... that's the sort of car my Polish compatriots would love to buy, but the confidence isn't there at the moment.

So you're blaming Brexit for the fact you cant flog your merc?

Unless theres gold bars in the boot of it, you're looking over the odds for it at £3750.

[robemcdonald]

blearyeyedboy said:

I'll hold my hand up to my error (my Ambiwlans moment, I guess) but think you're a bit out of order to write such a cheap snide remark based on a momentary brain fart. Tis the forum way, I guess, but it's disappointing.

I'll bet an internet pint that very few posters tut-tutting over my error could list all the EU members first time, error free and without the help of Google.

On topic, do you think any of the Japanese owned factories have a long term future? Are some more likely to succeed than others? ( ie, is Swindon's chance any different from Sunderland's?)

Edited by blearyeyedboy on Saturday 25th June 20:36

It's not a cheap shot bud, nor is it snide. I labelled you ill informed. That was true, it's not necessarily your fault.
I probably couldn't list all of the EU members off the top of my head, but if I was going to use one as an example I would probably check my facts first.
The point is a lot of people didn't and still don't understand all the facts and that is as much a failure of the campaigns on both sides as it is the individual.
Regarding the Nissan, Honda etc factories I don't know, it depends how much of their output goes to the EU. If it's over 50% there's probably a good chance they will be relocated.

[Barchettaman]

Not entirely sure about Boris' Focus, looking at its MoT history.

He needs to get that windscreen sorted sharpish.

[blearyeyedboy]

robemcdonald said:

I probably couldn't list all of the EU members off the top of my head, but if I was going to use one as an example I would probably check my facts first.

Guilty as charged on that one, but I'm not the first person to fluff a first comment in a new thread. Not is getting one fact wrong proof of being generally ill-informed. We'll have to disagree on that one.

The future of factories depends on how weak the pound remains through future model cycles, in my opinion. If the pound remains weak for a decade or more, Swindon and Sunderland might survive another 15-20 years... but beyond that is questionable, even to the most optimistic person. Pessimistically we might see some factory losses within 5 years, perhaps?

[ooid]

It would be interesting to see how electric Vehicles roll these out, mainly Tesla and VW import conditions to U.K. ?

Tesla has been quite active in U.K. market and not to mention VW's plans on electric cars (ie: ebugsters) and their recent hire, the fall-out former CEO and co-founder of Tesla, Martin Eberhard.

[maxdb]

I feel that people will be tighter with their money and will hold on to older cars for longer. New car sales will suffer and pcp prices will increase slightly due to interest rates. Tax and fuel duty will also rise a little bit. This is a complete guess so please take it with a pinch of salt

[ukkid35]

maxdb said:

I feel that people will be tighter with their money and will hold on to older cars for longer.

Yup, positive feedback loop - hardly matters whether the rationale is justified, it will happen anyway. Incredibly we have the ability to look back within very recent memory to see what happens.

[daemon]

maxdb said:

I feel that people will be tighter with their money and will hold on to older cars for longer. New car sales will suffer and pcp prices will increase slightly due to interest rates. Tax and fuel duty will also rise a little bit. This is a complete guess so please take it with a pinch of salt

Are they not predicting interest rates are likely to go lower - to 0%?

[mondeoman]

CS Garth said:

Petrol prices will likely increase due to currency devaluation against dollars in which oil is obviously priced. Likely move to more fuel efficient although not diesel ok
More likely that uk cars may have tariffs imposed when imported into Europe wont happe, Merkel says so http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36630326
Mid term increase in interest rates to take increased inflation into hand - car finance more expensive more likely to decrease, as wages wont be going up
Greater uncertainty for individuals will delay big ticket car purchases maybe, but businesses will car ry on sa usual
Components for uk assembled cars will get more expensive driving up uk domestic car prices depends on whether its imported or not - adn THAT is not a simple question to answer, with components, sub components, sub-sub components, and then assembly
U.K. Will likely no longer have to follow block exemption ruling that warranty is not invalidated by independents although seems unlikely

On the plus side:
Prices of classic cars should cease to increase

Welcome to your local BBC correspondent

[mondeoman]

V88Dicky said:

Iirc, JLR's biggest external markets are outside of the EU already (North America, China, India etc).

Happy to be corrected though

It depends...

JLR aren't going anywhere soon - they've just invested billions in a new engine plant, assembly plant, engineering centres.

[mondeoman]

EnglishTony said:

A proportion of (virtually) all cars built in Britain contain parts made in the EU. Therefore they will be more expensive.

Also worth considering, how much EU money was going into the new TVR plant in Wales? And the Aston one?

Aston have confirmed they are going ahead with the Welsh plant.