Diesel scrappage scheme

Diesel scrappage scheme

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Discussion

Devil2575

13,400 posts

187 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
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TooMany2cvs said:
Let's do some quick googling for new car prices across a few decades and generations...

A 1975 Vauxhall ad for the new Cavalier Mk1, starting from just over £2k. That's nearly £19k now.
1981, Cavalier Mk2, starting from just under £4,200. £16,300 now.
1996, Vectra B, starting from £13k. £22,500 now.
2008, Vectra C, starting at £17,200. £21,500 now.
A new Insig starts at £17k.

Looks to me like they're pretty much as cheap as they've been for 40 years.
In fact if you look at cars like BMW and Merc in real terms they are cheaper than they used to be.

However I suspect that if you go back a lot earlier you'll find that cars used to be a lot more expensive, in the days before mass production when they were all hand built. After all they weren't exactly a new innovation back in the 70s.

Also they are a lot better equiped now than they used to be. The standard kit on an entry level Insignia will be a lot better than an entry level Mk1 Cavalier. So they might be a similar price but you get more for your money.

blue al

923 posts

158 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
quotequote all
It matters not a jot that cars are cheaper, if insurance and fuel are more expensive
Buying a new home is harder than ever, interest rates being low only help those on the ladder

I'm not sold on paying a premium to save the planet, when the the the Americans and Australians are still on the V8
And pay a little to fill them up compared to us

groundhog

89 posts

251 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
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The U.S government is thinking of laws that say all cars must be able to do more than 50 mpg , that will see the end of v8's

blue al

923 posts

158 months

Wednesday 7th December 2016
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groundhog said:
The U.S government is thinking of laws that say all cars must be able to do more than 50 mpg , that will see the end of v8's
Unless VW can find a way .....

fivepointnine

708 posts

113 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
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groundhog said:
The U.S government is thinking of laws that say all cars must be able to do more than 50 mpg , that will see the end of v8's
The law you are talking about is not 54mpg for all cars, it is the fleet average from a carmaker. Scheduled to be in place by 2025, but I would take it with a grain of salt.

culpz

4,881 posts

111 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
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I think the US have had it right for a number of years now as they have minimal diesels on their roads because there's no real incentive for them.

Here in the UK, people seem to fall into the trap of; "I'll buy a diesel because the fuel is cheaper than petrol as well as lower road tax and better MPG. I only do a few thousand miles a year too so it's even more cheaper."

It's a false hope but enough of the general public have fallen victim to this as per the instruction of the Government. Embarrassing really.

jurbie

2,339 posts

200 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
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culpz said:
Here in the UK, people seem to fall into the trap of; "I'll buy a diesel because the fuel is cheaper than petrol as well as lower road tax and better MPG. I only do a few thousand miles a year too so it's even more cheaper."
Very true, I have a diesel Focus and in the 4 months I've owned it I've done 10,000 miles whilst the chap who owned it before me did the same over 2 years and no doubt he thought it cheaper to run. Since owning it the trip computer is telling me that the tank has 150 miles more range than when I bought it so what savings beyond the £20 a year VED did the previous owner get just bimbling around town? He's now driving a diesel Kuga which is a bit of a leap from a Focus but no doubt still doing 5000 miles a year and I suspect getting barely 400 miles to a tank but you know it's a bigger car and he's still saving money.

I'd suggest that the next change to VED needs to be to take account of mileage so that people are encouraged into vehicles that are suitable for their needs. For example if you have a diesel doing a minimum of 30000 miles per year then you pay £20 VED, if you have a diesel doing less then 5000 miles per year then you pay £400 VED.

Fr0d

13 posts

153 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
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Who in this country thinks diesel is cheaper than petrol?

otolith

55,899 posts

203 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
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jurbie said:
I'd suggest that the next change to VED needs to be to take account of mileage so that people are encouraged into vehicles that are suitable for their needs. For example if you have a diesel doing a minimum of 30000 miles per year then you pay £20 VED, if you have a diesel doing less then 5000 miles per year then you pay £400 VED.
The main reason for avoiding diesel if you don't do enough miles is the ratio of fixed costs to costs per mile. It's not really a thing that needs to be messed with by the VED system. Someone driving one round town is a problem for local air quality, but someone doing mega miles on the motorway is also chucking out a lot of NOx. Neither are scenarios the government is likely to want to incentivise.

The right solution is probably to tax fuels in proportion to their overall emissions profile. But after years of taxing people into diesels that's not going to be popular.

bodhi

10,333 posts

228 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
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PKLD said:
Wow I've never seen such extreme stereotypical sweeping statements of assumption used in a single thread (on both sides)!

I have an EV & I have an ICE and the combi works great (I have driveway so this puts me apparently according to a lot of posters on here in a tiny fraction of people who own cars)

My brothers live in the middle of the city and don't have a driveway - but they also have no interest in having a car and when the need arises they hire one by the hour like zipcar... Have you seen how unpopular car ownership is for the younger generations who care more about living beside bars than having gardens, cars and driveways?

Having an ICE with a 150 mile range would be the biggest pain in the arse ever but an EV with 150 mile range is a doddle. If you drive over 70 miles more than once a week don't buy an EV. If you drive less than a couple hundred miles a week don't buy a diesel. If you drive tens of thousands of miles don't buy a petrol or EV. Different technologies suit different people - why is an EV so different than arguements between diesel vs petrol?

I charge every night at home so every morning we're good to go, if I'm travelling a big distance I use the train or plane. If I'm going rural we use the old Volvo. The EV has done over 14k miles, the ICE has done less than 2k

A lot of folk without driveways don't want or need a car so this whole how do people in flats charge their cars is a tiny percentage of a problem (and nice apartments have underground or allocated parking so chargers are being installed there)

Lastly do you know how much electricity is used by refinerys to produce petrol and diesel? And then produce the fuel for the tankers to then take them out to the forecourts. A st-load so when the amount of fuel is less the amount taken up by EV charging is minimal. Add in the fact that most EVs will time shift their charging to off-peak it will put little strain on the grid: charging at work during the day (low demand) charging overnight at home (low demand)

That is all biggrin
I actually agree with most of what you have said, with the exception of electricity use for refining petrol/diesel - all refineries are "self contained" and produce power from the raw materials they are working with from what i can see, so put very little load on the grid at all.

However there are use cases where EV's make sense - primarily for those people unlucky enough to live in a big city - for them, they make complete sense. However they don't make sense for everyone as often pointed out - and if this is the case, I don't see how they can be the future. Part of the future, sure, but not the absolute future as so many would have us believe.

I also take issue with the thought that the ICE's days are numbered, as they are still perfect for the many use cases where EV's just don't really work (motorway mile munchers, sports cars, remote areas etc). Diesel I would agree hasn't got the greatest future, but there is still much that can be done to clean petrols up, so I would say there's still plenty of life left in that option.

So no real issue with EV's, other than they would be completely unsuitable for what I'm looking for in a car. just have an issue with some of the unbearable hubris that comes with them

DonkeyApple

54,934 posts

168 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
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bodhi said:
I actually agree with most of what you have said, with the exception of electricity use for refining petrol/diesel - all refineries are "self contained" and produce power from the raw materials they are working with from what i can see, so put very little load on the grid at all.

However there are use cases where EV's make sense - primarily for those people unlucky enough to live in a big city - for them, they make complete sense. However they don't make sense for everyone as often pointed out - and if this is the case, I don't see how they can be the future. Part of the future, sure, but not the absolute future as so many would have us believe.

I also take issue with the thought that the ICE's days are numbered, as they are still perfect for the many use cases where EV's just don't really work (motorway mile munchers, sports cars, remote areas etc). Diesel I would agree hasn't got the greatest future, but there is still much that can be done to clean petrols up, so I would say there's still plenty of life left in that option.

So no real issue with EV's, other than they would be completely unsuitable for what I'm looking for in a car. just have an issue with some of the unbearable hubris that comes with them
The problem arises when sufficient cars are EV that petrol stations increase their closure rate combined with local authorities' keenness to allow change of use for petrol sites to be turned into instand profit blocks of flats. As it then becomes more difficult to find petrol then a few more people will swap to EV and so on.

An issue we are facing a little bit in London is that the Indians who arrived in the 60s and took over petrol stations are now retiring/dieing and their children have professional qualifications and careers so no interest in running a corner shop but quite keen on cashing in on the LA's desire to grant change of use for residential housing so most of the stations that I have traditionally used that are on my various routes through or out of London have closed for development.

The ability for a land owner to create yield from installing EV refuelling could be a real winner versus the complexity of petrol stations and the current temptation of converting them to residential land for a quick profit.

It's entirely possible that people with empty driveways near shops etc could sell electricity at a massive premium during the day (free parking for shoppers or commuters with EVs) and then use the space for storing and charging their own car for free at night.

The most interesting aspect of the EV infrastructure in the future is that it's easy to tie it all in to apps that allow you to monetise your land and charging point when you are not using it. And if people start fitting battery packs to their homes and give themselves the ability to store electricity then it opens up the whole concept of buying and selling power through an exchange and turning a profit. Everyone can be their own mini Enron and go producing or speculating. biggrin

bodhi

10,333 posts

228 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
The problem arises when sufficient cars are EV that petrol stations increase their closure rate combined with local authorities' keenness to allow change of use for petrol sites to be turned into instand profit blocks of flats. As it then becomes more difficult to find petrol then a few more people will swap to EV and so on.

An issue we are facing a little bit in London is that the Indians who arrived in the 60s and took over petrol stations are now retiring/dieing and their children have professional qualifications and careers so no interest in running a corner shop but quite keen on cashing in on the LA's desire to grant change of use for residential housing so most of the stations that I have traditionally used that are on my various routes through or out of London have closed for development.

The ability for a land owner to create yield from installing EV refuelling could be a real winner versus the complexity of petrol stations and the current temptation of converting them to residential land for a quick profit.

It's entirely possible that people with empty driveways near shops etc could sell electricity at a massive premium during the day (free parking for shoppers or commuters with EVs) and then use the space for storing and charging their own car for free at night.

The most interesting aspect of the EV infrastructure in the future is that it's easy to tie it all in to apps that allow you to monetise your land and charging point when you are not using it. And if people start fitting battery packs to their homes and give themselves the ability to store electricity then it opens up the whole concept of buying and selling power through an exchange and turning a profit. Everyone can be their own mini Enron and go producing or speculating. biggrin
As long as there is a market for it then petrol stations will still be quite easy to come by, so with the current mix of vehicles on the roads I will be VERY surprised if they go anywhere for at least the next 20 years, bearing in mind in 2025 most manufacturers still expect 70% of their fleet to be combustion powered.

culpz

4,881 posts

111 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
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Fr0d said:
Who in this country thinks diesel is cheaper than petrol?
In what way?

If you mean running one then the answer is a large number of the general public, unfortunately.

The Government pushed them at the end of the day and now they're regretting that decision massively.

Guvernator

13,109 posts

164 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
quotequote all
I never really got the agenda for making people buy diesels in the first place. They are brilliant in certain circumstances i.e. for people doing big motorway miles but absolutely useless for driving short distances in town for less than 10k a year and yet the cities are full of people who have bought the wrong car for the wrong job.

I've had this conversation with a couple of people and they absolutely refuse to give my arguments any merit. All I get in response is quoting of the official mpg figure which is nowhere near achievable when used for short town journeys, that it can do 400 miles to a tank and it cost them £100 less to tax a year. This is what has been drummed into them for at least a decade.

Deliberate misinformation, shortsightedness, incompetence or something else?

Devil2575

13,400 posts

187 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
quotequote all
Guvernator said:
I never really got the agenda for making people buy diesels in the first place.
It's quite simple, because the emit less CO2. The UK has targets to meet and getting people into diesel cars was seen as one of the ways of helping the country to achieve this.

funkyrobot

18,789 posts

227 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
quotequote all
culpz said:
I think the US have had it right for a number of years now as they have minimal diesels on their roads because there's no real incentive for them.

Here in the UK, people seem to fall into the trap of; "I'll buy a diesel because the fuel is cheaper than petrol as well as lower road tax and better MPG. I only do a few thousand miles a year too so it's even more cheaper."

It's a false hope but enough of the general public have fallen victim to this as per the instruction of the Government. Embarrassing really.
Don't forget that company car tax has made diesels attractive too.

Guvernator

13,109 posts

164 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
quotequote all
Devil2575 said:
Guvernator said:
I never really got the agenda for making people buy diesels in the first place.
It's quite simple, because the emit less CO2. The UK has targets to meet and getting people into diesel cars was seen as one of the ways of helping the country to achieve this.
And now those CO2 targets are somehow less important because we have discovered all of a sudden that we are poisoning the air instead of just (possibly) warming the planet. The problem with making environmental policy when you don't really understand the problem you are trying to solve.

I'm old enough to remember when CFC's causing holes in the ozone layer where the big catastrophe. I wonder what other 3 letter acronym will be blamed for the ails of the world in the next decade or so. I'm going to guess it will be some invisible gas\field emitted by EV's, right when the number of EV's has reached saturation point.

Devil2575

13,400 posts

187 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
quotequote all
Guvernator said:
Devil2575 said:
Guvernator said:
I never really got the agenda for making people buy diesels in the first place.
It's quite simple, because the emit less CO2. The UK has targets to meet and getting people into diesel cars was seen as one of the ways of helping the country to achieve this.
And now those CO2 targets are somehow less important because we have discovered all of a sudden that we are poisoning the air instead of just (possibly) warming the planet. The problem with making environmental policy when you don't really understand the problem you are trying to solve.

I'm old enough to remember when CFC's causing holes in the ozone layer where the big catastrophe. I wonder what other 3 letter acronym will be blamed for the ails of the world in the next decade or so. I'm going to guess it will be some invisible gas\field emitted by EV's, right when the number of EV's has reached saturation point.
The first point is that policy makers didn't realise that all the clever emission control systems on diesels don't really work in town centres and car manufacturers numbers are actually not reflective of reality. So if they did anyhting wrong it was to believe manufacturers.

I remember the ozone hole and CFCs. The difference there though was that worldwide action was taken to drastically limit CFC use and as such we fixed the problem we had caused.

If we could do the same with C02 emissions then that would be a very good thing. Sadly I suspect that the political forces and vested interests are too strong to enable us to do anything about it. I hope I'm wrong.

DonkeyApple

54,934 posts

168 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
quotequote all
bodhi said:
As long as there is a market for it then petrol stations will still be quite easy to come by, so with the current mix of vehicles on the roads I will be VERY surprised if they go anywhere for at least the next 20 years, bearing in mind in 2025 most manufacturers still expect 70% of their fleet to be combustion powered.
I think your timescale has to be about right but it's worth noting that in central London we've watched petrol stations steadily disappear as planning laws have been relaxed to the point that there is more money to be made by the landlord from selling flats than petrol and fags. So the point that I am highlighting is that even if there is demand from consumers, if there is more profit in selling something other than petrol then simple market forces lead to stations closing and filling up becoming less convenient for people. So supply of stations is falling due to the wholly seperate issue of the opportunity profit of the land price.

DonkeyApple

54,934 posts

168 months

Thursday 8th December 2016
quotequote all
Guvernator said:
I never really got the agenda for making people buy diesels in the first place. They are brilliant in certain circumstances i.e. for people doing big motorway miles but absolutely useless for driving short distances in town for less than 10k a year and yet the cities are full of people who have bought the wrong car for the wrong job.

I've had this conversation with a couple of people and they absolutely refuse to give my arguments any merit. All I get in response is quoting of the official mpg figure which is nowhere near achievable when used for short town journeys, that it can do 400 miles to a tank and it cost them £100 less to tax a year. This is what has been drummed into them for at least a decade.

Deliberate misinformation, shortsightedness, incompetence or something else?
I always just considered the government drive was to makes us more European and less John Bull and like late night, chilled cafe culture it's completely backfired and made people even more 'John Bull', pissed and stupid with money. biggrin