Diesel scrappage scheme

[Guvernator]

Devil2575 said:

The first point is that policy makers didn't realise that all the clever emission control systems on diesels don't really work in town centres and car manufacturers numbers are actually not reflective of reality. So if they did anyhting wrong it was to believe manufacturers.

I remember the ozone hole and CFCs. The difference there though was that worldwide action was taken to drastically limit CFC use and as such we fixed the problem we had caused.

If we could do the same with C02 emissions then that would be a very good thing. Sadly I suspect that the political forces and vested interests are too strong to enable us to do anything about it. I hope I'm wrong.

It's an engine that burns fossil fuel to make power, you can't clean it up to the extent that is required by legislation without massively effecting the performance expected from modern vehicles and\or companies bottom line so companies have effectively resorted to gaming the system.

So either the targets were unrealistic and can't be met using today's ICE technology or meeting those targets is so financially punitive that companies would rather risk cheating and getting caught then spending billions trying. The EV is also a direct consequence of manufacturers realising there is only so much you can do to clean up an ICE's emissions.

Who are the experts setting the targets\government policy and what makes them qualified to do that? Did they even sit down and have a conversation with the manufacturers to see what was feasible or are they numbers plucked out of thin air?

[Devil2575]

Guvernator said:

It's an engine that burns fossil fuel to make power, you can't clean it up to the extent that is required by legislation without massively effecting the performance expected from modern vehicles and\or companies bottom line so companies have effectively resorted to gaming the system.

Pretty much yes. I just think that policy makers heard what they wanted to hear, that they could meet CO2 targets with minimal effort. Diesel would enable to internal combustion engine to persist at leasdt in the medium term and so avoid governments having to make decision that would be unpopular with industry and the public.

Guvernator said:

So either the targets were unrealistic and can't be met using today's ICE technology or meeting those targets is so financially punitive that companies would rather risk cheating and getting caught then spending billions trying. The EV is also a direct consequence of manufacturers realising there is only so much you can do to clean up an ICE's emissions.

Yes I agree.

Guvernator said:

Who are the experts setting the targets\government policy and what makes them qualified to do that? Did they even sit down and have a conversation with the manufacturers to see what was feasible or are they numbers plucked out of thin air?

No idea, but how expert are the manufacturers themselves? In my experience of industry people at the top tend to make decisions and then tell the people who actually know stuff what they need to achieve. So even if governments had spoken to manufacturers they might still have come out with meaningless targets. I've been in a sitation before where my boss has come back from a meeting where he has made promises that are technically impossible. I can imagine this happens all the time when CEOs talk to governments. The decision won't be based on a technical understanding, it will be based on politics (internal company politics as well as wider political considerations).

[Trabi601]

DonkeyApple said:

bodhi said:

As long as there is a market for it then petrol stations will still be quite easy to come by, so with the current mix of vehicles on the roads I will be VERY surprised if they go anywhere for at least the next 20 years, bearing in mind in 2025 most manufacturers still expect 70% of their fleet to be combustion powered.

I think your timescale has to be about right but it's worth noting that in central London we've watched petrol stations steadily disappear as planning laws have been relaxed to the point that there is more money to be made by the landlord from selling flats than petrol and fags. So the point that I am highlighting is that even if there is demand from consumers, if there is more profit in selling something other than petrol then simple market forces lead to stations closing and filling up becoming less convenient for people. So supply of stations is falling due to the wholly seperate issue of the opportunity profit of the land price.

That's really the product of stupid London land prices, though.

Outside of London, a functional petrol station is a very expensive investment - anything with decent tanks and pumping through a decent fuel volume is instantly worth £1m+

(You may find the odd rural station with ageing infrastructure for £300-500k, but you'd mostly be foolish do get into that)

[FiF]

Trabi601 said:

DonkeyApple said:

bodhi said:

As long as there is a market for it then petrol stations will still be quite easy to come by, so with the current mix of vehicles on the roads I will be VERY surprised if they go anywhere for at least the next 20 years, bearing in mind in 2025 most manufacturers still expect 70% of their fleet to be combustion powered.

I think your timescale has to be about right but it's worth noting that in central London we've watched petrol stations steadily disappear as planning laws have been relaxed to the point that there is more money to be made by the landlord from selling flats than petrol and fags. So the point that I am highlighting is that even if there is demand from consumers, if there is more profit in selling something other than petrol then simple market forces lead to stations closing and filling up becoming less convenient for people. So supply of stations is falling due to the wholly seperate issue of the opportunity profit of the land price.

That's really the product of stupid London land prices, though.

Outside of London, a functional petrol station is a very expensive investment - anything with decent tanks and pumping through a decent fuel volume is instantly worth £1m+

(You may find the odd rural station with ageing infrastructure for £300-500k, but you'd mostly be foolish do get into that)

Yet in Worcestershire a Shell station, newish tanks and pumps, close to a town centre population 20k, was sold and is now a block of retirement flats. So I reckon your claim it's just a product of London land prices is way off.

[Trabi601]

FiF said:

Yet in Worcestershire a Shell station, newish tanks and pumps, close to a town centre population 20k, was sold and is now a block of retirement flats. So I reckon your claim it's just a product of London land prices is way off.

Where was that? - and how do you know the age of the infrastructure? - what else is around that area? - do you know how much volume it was doing?

There will always be the odd exception - and there will always be a pocket of land somewhere that is worth more as residential than it is as a going concern retail outlet. But generally, petrol stations are still a very lucrative business to be in - with the big players actively buying out smaller competitors for very significant amounts of money.

[FiF]

Trabi601 said:

FiF said:

Yet in Worcestershire a Shell station, newish tanks and pumps, close to a town centre population 20k, was sold and is now a block of retirement flats. So I reckon your claim it's just a product of London land prices is way off.

Where was that? - and how do you know the age of the infrastructure? - what else is around that area? - do you know how much volume it was doing?

There will always be the odd exception - and there will always be a pocket of land somewhere that is worth more as residential than it is as a going concern retail outlet. But generally, petrol stations are still a very lucrative business to be in - with the big players actively buying out smaller competitors for very significant amounts of money.

It's in the nearest town to my house, where I've lived for 15 years, and whilst I was here saw the refurbishment, new tanks, new pumps, new shop, new car wash. Couple of years later sold and redeveloped into said flats. I used to be a customer, it was the handiest place for V power, now have a right trek to get that. In terms of the volume, as a simple customer how do you expect me to know that in detail, it was always busy, busier than the Esso or the Fina, the only other filling stations in town and within a radius of 5 miles ish. There must have been the market as when the new Tesco opened they put in a filling station, all three stations are busy.

[Trabi601]

FiF said:

It's in the nearest town to my house, where I've lived for 15 years, and whilst I was here saw the refurbishment, new tanks, new pumps, new shop, new car wash. Couple of years later sold and redeveloped into said flats. I used to be a customer, it was the handiest place for V power, now have a right trek to get that. In terms of the volume, as a simple customer how do you expect me to know that in detail, it was always busy, busier than the Esso or the Fina, the only other filling stations in town and within a radius of 5 miles ish. There must have been the market as when the new Tesco opened they put in a filling station, all three stations are busy.

Fina?! Jesus, how long ago are we talking about here?

Do you know the address, as someone in the industry, I'm now really intrigued by this!

[bodhi]

Tesla dealership closing to be turned into flats.

http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/develo...

Oh noes! It's beginning of the end for the EV!

[FiF]

Trabi601 said:

Fina?! Jesus, how long ago are we talking about here?

Do you know the address, as someone in the industry, I'm now really intrigued by this!

Sorry it wasn't Fina, Total, same group though.

2009 looking at the planning application.

45 granny hutches at 125k average, can afford a shilling or two for the site.
Thinking back, went in once and they were digging up the forecourt, asked why, told it was tanks, assumed it was new tanks as they had done the forecourt near the office the same, so perhaps it could have been repairs as opposed to new tanks to be fair, but definitely new pumps etc.

[Trabi601]

That's a very unusual case - it appears there was an Esso right next door to the Shell station. At least that's how it looks on Streetview.

[DonkeyApple]

Trabi601 said:

That's a very unusual case - it appears there was an Esso right next door to the Shell station. At least that's how it looks on Streetview.

It might be unusual but it shows that market forces plus LA agendas combined can mean that even if a station is profitable there can be superior financial opportunities over change of use. As such, in the future should demand for fuel fall it's easy to see stations becoming less numerous and that effect triggering more people to swap.

[Trabi601]

DonkeyApple said:

Trabi601 said:

That's a very unusual case - it appears there was an Esso right next door to the Shell station. At least that's how it looks on Streetview.

It might be unusual but it shows that market forces plus LA agendas combined can mean that even if a station is profitable there can be superior financial opportunities over change of use. As such, in the future should demand for fuel fall it's easy to see stations becoming less numerous and that effect triggering more people to swap.

But the market is rising - petrol stations are changing hands for very large sums of money, all the players I deal with are constantly asking me if I know of sites for sale!

Yes, the odd site will be sold off for other use, especially if it needs major infrastructure work with long payback times, quiet rural stations will close if tanks need work and those in areas where property prices are going crazy will be prime targets - but there is a very strong market for good petrol retail sites.

[FiF]

Trabi601 said:

DonkeyApple said:

Trabi601 said:

That's a very unusual case - it appears there was an Esso right next door to the Shell station. At least that's how it looks on Streetview.

It might be unusual but it shows that market forces plus LA agendas combined can mean that even if a station is profitable there can be superior financial opportunities over change of use. As such, in the future should demand for fuel fall it's easy to see stations becoming less numerous and that effect triggering more people to swap.

But the market is rising - petrol stations are changing hands for very large sums of money, all the players I deal with are constantly asking me if I know of sites for sale!

Yes, the odd site will be sold off for other use, especially if it needs major infrastructure work with long payback times, quiet rural stations will close if tanks need work and those in areas where property prices are going crazy will be prime targets - but there is a very strong market for good petrol retail sites.

I don't know whether it's unusual or not, yes there was an Esso site next door, and they competed with each other. The Esso site did better after the Shell site closed, but when both operating, if anything, the Shell site was busier and better maintained. The third site in town was Texaco when we moved, then went to Fina/Total and is now another Esso. There's also now a Tesco forecourt.

The point is that here was an outwardly thriving site, that is now a block of retirement flats, not rural, OK it's a small town not particularly on the way to anywhere, but near to a reasonably busy town centre. OK not busy in Sarf East terms but busy for round here.

[heebeegeetee]

The closure of so many filling stations is definitely one of the reasons I drive diesel.

[Devil2575]

My decision to buy a diesel was based on it being the best car I looked at for my limited budget. Also the diesel engine was a lot better than the 1.6/1.8 petrol in most ways.

Some filling stations have closed near me but not that many and a new one opened a few years back.

[DonkeyApple]

Trabi601 said:

DonkeyApple said:

Trabi601 said:

That's a very unusual case - it appears there was an Esso right next door to the Shell station. At least that's how it looks on Streetview.

It might be unusual but it shows that market forces plus LA agendas combined can mean that even if a station is profitable there can be superior financial opportunities over change of use. As such, in the future should demand for fuel fall it's easy to see stations becoming less numerous and that effect triggering more people to swap.

But the market is rising - petrol stations are changing hands for very large sums of money, all the players I deal with are constantly asking me if I know of sites for sale!

Yes, the odd site will be sold off for other use, especially if it needs major infrastructure work with long payback times, quiet rural stations will close if tanks need work and those in areas where property prices are going crazy will be prime targets - but there is a very strong market for good petrol retail sites.

But that's the entire point, it doesn't matter how much money the unit t can make as a petrol station, if the land can be used for a different venture that makes more money. And that is what is being seen in London where residential land values are high enough for perfectly profitable petrol stations to be sold off.

It's just a simple economic observation that the amount of profit one type of business makes on a plot of land is totally irrelevant, it's all about whether another type of business could make more profit.

And in the case of this particular thread the ultimate point is that there will be a tipping point in the adoption of EVs where enough drivers stop buying petrol that the business case for petrol stations weakens as they have fewer customers so their values will drop meaning more will be closed and fewer convenient petrol stations is likely to incline more people to make the switch away from petrol thus exacerbating the whole cycle. And I'm not sure it's all that likely that the Government will then subsidise petrol stations as a valuable public service?

[Nigel Worc's]

FiF said:

Trabi601 said:

DonkeyApple said:

Trabi601 said:

That's a very unusual case - it appears there was an Esso right next door to the Shell station. At least that's how it looks on Streetview.

It might be unusual but it shows that market forces plus LA agendas combined can mean that even if a station is profitable there can be superior financial opportunities over change of use. As such, in the future should demand for fuel fall it's easy to see stations becoming less numerous and that effect triggering more people to swap.

But the market is rising - petrol stations are changing hands for very large sums of money, all the players I deal with are constantly asking me if I know of sites for sale!

Yes, the odd site will be sold off for other use, especially if it needs major infrastructure work with long payback times, quiet rural stations will close if tanks need work and those in areas where property prices are going crazy will be prime targets - but there is a very strong market for good petrol retail sites.

I don't know whether it's unusual or not, yes there was an Esso site next door, and they competed with each other. The Esso site did better after the Shell site closed, but when both operating, if anything, the Shell site was busier and better maintained. The third site in town was Texaco when we moved, then went to Fina/Total and is now another Esso. There's also now a Tesco forecourt.

The point is that here was an outwardly thriving site, that is now a block of retirement flats, not rural, OK it's a small town not particularly on the way to anywhere, but near to a reasonably busy town centre. OK not busy in Sarf East terms but busy for round here.

Both Shell stations in Worcester suffered the same fate, both becoming blocks of flats, one on the Ombersley Road, the other on Bath Road.

[Fox-]

This all strikes me as too little too late. We've gone through 15 years of people being forced into filthy diesels and now we start to complain about it just as diesels become considerably cleaner. Talk about closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.

I drive a Euro 6 diesel not because I like diesel but because this country has been pushed into diesel to such an extent that nobody buys the larger engined petrol cars and if you cant afford a brand new one you buy a used diesel.

Diesel is what happens when you levy significant duty and VAT on fuel and base tax, company car or otherwise, on CO2 emissions.

This is no accident - it was by design!

[Guvernator]

Yep this is my issues, loads of talk about banning diesels from city centres in the next 3-5 years which seem to ignore the fact that literally millions of people drive diesels in the UK. What will happen to all those diesel cars? I really don't think they've thought this one through.

[otolith]

Guvernator said:

Yep this is my issues, loads of talk about banning diesels from city centres in the next 3-5 years which seem to ignore the fact that literally millions of people drive diesels in the UK. What will happen to all those diesel cars? I really don't think they've thought this one through.

They will be devalued. People who need to drive into cities will sell their diesel cars. People who don't will snap them up. Some people who currently drive their diesel into a city will keep the car but use another mode for those journeys.

I've just bought a soot-chucker myself, but when I go to London I get the train, and in any case I intend to keep it until it's worth bugger all anyway.