Everyday cars which are already starting to disappear

Everyday cars which are already starting to disappear

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battered

4,088 posts

147 months

Wednesday 18th January 2017
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20 years from now Boxsters and Caymans will have gone the way of the Porsche 944 and 968. People will save the 911 because it retains high value, and even the 996 will go up one day. The lower value cars will hand in a big bill and that's that.

Yes, even the 996 won't be unloved for ever. 10 yrs ago the 964 was the Cinderella that you could pick up for loose change.

CRA1G

6,518 posts

195 months

Wednesday 18th January 2017
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battered said:
20 years from now Boxsters and Caymans will have gone the way of the Porsche 944 and 968. People will save the 911 because it retains high value, and even the 996 will go up one day. The lower value cars will hand in a big bill and that's that.

Yes, even the 996 won't be unloved for ever. 10 yrs ago the 964 was the Cinderella that you could pick up for loose change.
Yes,all three of these have gone through the unloved period but now gaining value,especially the ZMC but you hardly ever see any of them on the road now..


Car_Nut

598 posts

88 months

Wednesday 18th January 2017
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Jimmy Recard said:
I predict the heaviest depreciating cars will go first... Build quLity is only half the story of scrapping cars
In my humble opinion, this is a very perceptive point.

Of course depreciation itself though is a function of desirability, classic demand:supply economics, and emotional factors. Just don't ask me to write the algorithm for this! (Although I know people who could, given a few thousand spare washers).

Stickyfinger

8,429 posts

105 months

Wednesday 18th January 2017
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With the reduction of direct OEM parts supply/manufacture, the cars that will survive longest will be those with after market spare parts production.

The Citroen C6 is almost imposable to keep on the road now unless you have a donor car to go with it. No MAF sensor no car !

Trabi601

4,865 posts

95 months

Wednesday 18th January 2017
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battered said:
20 years from now Boxsters and Caymans will have gone the way of the Porsche 944 and 968. People will save the 911 because it retains high value, and even the 996 will go up one day. The lower value cars will hand in a big bill and that's that.

Yes, even the 996 won't be unloved for ever. 10 yrs ago the 964 was the Cinderella that you could pick up for loose change.
I'm not sure we'll ever see the era of a usable sub £1k Boxster, though - the lowest price I ever saw on a 924 was 'free', as the rear hatch bubble was cracked. (Pre-internet days, so finding one was a mission and they were 600 quid from Porsche).

The 6 cylinder motor in the right place will always mean the Boxster is seen more as a pure and 'proper' Porsche when comparing with a front engined 4-pot.

Car_Nut

598 posts

88 months

Thursday 19th January 2017
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JonJon2015 said:
Fascinating analysis, Car_Nut.

Car_Nut said:
To an extent this can be attributed to increased competition in this market segment, the fiercest part of the market. However, I would suggest that this is mainly attributable to changes in car buying habits: it will be interesting to compare these to sales for SUVs and people movers, when we get around to these.
It will be interesting to see the overlay of the increase in SUV and people movers, as you say, but I would imagine that the A3 and 1 Series have also taken a very substantial bite out of those numbers now that more first registrations in the later years of your analysis are in respect of sales on the 3+23 or 3+35 basis.
I thought that this was a very good point. Accordingly, I have added A3s and 1 Series to the registration graphs (have knocked a good number of the A3 Estates & 1 Series Coupes on the head, but I have not been able to pick up any of the convertibles in the source data). I am afraid that the graphs are now rather "busy", and thus not as clearly presented as I would normally like. The new total registrations graph is as follows:



As you can see the Audi A3 and the BMW 1 Series do boost numbers in the market segment; however, the numbers in my analysis still decline from 404k in 2001 to 309k in 2015: the reduction being 23.5%. I suppose that once one adds in the Koreans (I see i30s in quantity where I live), the overall fall in the segment might not be too dramatic.

Looking at the relative market share of the eight:



Looking at this one could argue that the growth in A3 and the 1 Series sales have merely been replacing the French in the market sector.

Edited by Car_Nut on Thursday 19th January 00:50

skinnyman

1,637 posts

93 months

Thursday 19th January 2017
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Citroen Saxo VTR/VTS's.

Everywhere, then suddenly nowhere. I'm assuming the majority were wrote off.

SR20i

45 posts

89 months

Thursday 19th January 2017
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Nissan Primeras, cracking cars sadly most have been scrapped.

Morningside

24,110 posts

229 months

Thursday 19th January 2017
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The classic large engine cars of the mid 1990s. Large engine Fords and Vauxhalls. The time when non of general public really gave a toss about MPG. But these days it seems a top requirement.

1) MPG
2) Safety
3) Colour
..
..
9999) How it actually looks.

Plus due to the crafty scrappage scheme where the Govenment managed to remove those pesky pre new tax rule cars off the roads by enabling you to buy some new Korean crap. Also on top of that was the crippling fuel screw-up of the 2000's they are becoming less and less.

Sad really as I cannot many 19yr old having the pleasure of owning a V8 or even a barmy tuned inline 4. It could get even worse when the possible EU green meddling stops anyone modding a car from stock.

Kitchski

6,515 posts

231 months

Thursday 19th January 2017
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skinnyman said:
Citroen Saxo VTR/VTS's.

Everywhere, then suddenly nowhere. I'm assuming the majority were wrote off.
The VTS was never actually that common in the first place. The VTR was, probably by a ratio of 10 to 1, at a guess.

Reasons they're disappearing, I would say, is a combo of all the yoofs wrecking them all with 'mods', so there are very few genuine original cars left. I expect some also got binned, and they have a serious lust for rust. It seems to the Saxo didn't just take the Nova's mantle for the boy racer car of choice; It ran with the propensity to rust torch too!

Likewise the 106, which is effectively the same car.

Car_Nut

598 posts

88 months

Thursday 19th January 2017
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LUXURY CARS

Apologies for taking slightly longer than I had promised on this one: as you will see there are a few issues that I needed to mull over before rushing into print.

I have selected the following cars in this market segment:

• Audi A8
• BMW 7 Series
• Jaguar XJ
• Lexus LS
• Mercedes S Class

I do not believe that there would be much to serve by venturing into even more exclusive vehicles, as I doubt that these are scrap fodder, quite apart from sample size issues.

The variants of these models included in the 2001 to 2015 database are as follows:

Audi A8: First Generation to 2002, Second Generation 2002 to 2010, Third Generation 2010 onwards.

BMW 7 Series: E38 to 2001, E65 2001 to 2008, F01 2008 to 2015.

Jaguar XJ: X308 to 2002, X350/X358 2002 to 2009, X351 2009 onwards.

Lexus LS: XF30 to 2006 (LS 430), XF40 (LS 460) 2006 to date.

Mercedes S Class: W220 to 2006, W221 2006 to 2013, W22 2013 onwards.

We will start by looking at the numbers registered:



It can be seen that sales of these five models have declined, the decrease being from 9,720 in 2001 to 6,026 in 2015, considering Great Britain only. This is a decrease of some 38%. It can also be seen that the main fall corresponded with the 2008 financial crash, since when there has been a slight recovery. The relevant numbers from 2007 to 2009 were 8,383, 6,304, and 4,515 respectively. Given the target market for these cars, this is unsurprising. I would also suggest that in this sector of the market there are other choices that could be made outwith the segment, of which the Range Rover is the most obvious, and these have been abstracting sales.

It can also be seen that from 2010 onwards, sales of the Lexus LS have decreased to a level that I would consider below that at which analysis is statistically significant, the nadir (to date) being the 21 vehicles registered in 2012. Accordingly, this is a car that appears set to disappear from our roads almost completely.

Moving onto the survival curve for 2001 to 2014:



As can be seen, the results are somewhat erratic. I am afraid I rather pooh-poohed the impact of used exports in my earlier posts; however, as we can see, while it does indeed effect only a minority of cars it is still sufficient to confuse the results, when the number of survivors is high. In my defence, I based this on a 2011 report, which unfortunately used data that coincided with a trough in car exports, as the survival rates peak for cars registered in the 2008-10 period (2010 for the Audi A8, 2009 for the Jaguar XJ and Mercedes S Class, 2007-8 for the BMW 7 series). Apologies to those I disagreed with earlier.

I presume that, again this window of reduced exports was tied into the 2008 crash and its aftershocks, as another interesting finding is that about 5% of new registrations of all of these cars disappear in the first year (presumably being only registered first in the UK as a tax saving wheeze), and that a total of 10-15% disappear over the first four years. This applies to all of these cars, the percentage of UK survivors for cars registered in 2015, 2014, 2013 and 2012, respectively for these models, as at 31 December 2015, are as follows:

Audi A8: 94.0%, 92.3%, 84.3%, 85.5%
BMW 7 Series: 93.4%, 91.7%, 86.4%, 85.6%
Jaguar XJ: 95.7%, 94.3%, 94.8%, 89.9%
Mercedes S Class: 94.1%, 84.4%, 87.7%, 85.3%

It is of note that one could assume that that the average age of the 4.3% to 7.7% of cars that disappear in the first year is just six months. It would appear that fewer XJs are exported as used cars than their German rivals, but that the difference is not great.

Moving on to zooming in on the 2001 to 2009 portion of the graph that we found more interesting the last time:



Well this is slightly more useful, but the graph is still rather suffering from the impact of car exports. Accordingly, to try and get a handle on survivability I have looked at the percentage of British survivors that are still taxed. The theory being that this type and age of car is unlikely to be stashed away by collectors, and that, for cars of this nature, many of their owners are reluctant to send them to the scrappy when they are no longer roadworthy, and thus the proportion that are taxed, and thus roadworthy, is an indicator of survivability. In the graph, I am afraid that I have had to supress the zero for legibility, which is a practice that I dislike as it distorts the presentation of relative values (which is why this is common trick of tabloid newspapers, of course).



Drawing firm conclusions in this market segment is less easy than for anything else that we have examined thus far. However, I consider that we could draw the following conclusions:

Audi A8: there are two distinct trend curves, discernible in both the survival rate curves and in the probability of keeping an A8 on the road: that for 2001 and 2002, mainly First Generation cars, being appreciably above that for Second Generation cars from 2003 onwards: there is an (approx.) 6% reduction in the survival rate once the Second Generation cars appear. It is tempting to ascribe this to the naughties deterioration in the quality of Volkswagen Group products that several of us on this thread believe in, but maybe an expert on the model can enlighten us? It is not yet possible to determine any difference in the inherent survival rates of Second and Third Generation cars. Overall the chances of keeping an A8 on the road are well aligned to that of the 7 Series and S Class: a little above them in the case of a First Generation car and a little below them in the case of a Second Generation Car.

BMW 7 Series: one could tentatively draw a conclusion that E38 survives better than the E65, given that 2001 data is dominated by the E38, but it is dangerous to draw firm conclusions on the basis of only one year’s data. But we can certainly say that there does appear to be a significant issue with keeping 2002 E65s on the road, the probability of which is some 26% below that of 2003 cars, and 18% lower than 2001 cars, but that from 2003 onwards the position improves dramatically, although the trend line is still below the single point of E38 data. Indeed, it is even possible that the 2001 E38 data is dragged down by the inclusion of some early E65s. Again, can any experts in the model enlighten us please? It is not yet possible to draw any conclusions over the inherent F01 survival rate. Apart for the 2002 blip the chances of keeping a 7 Series on the road seem broadly aligned with its two great German competitors.

Jaguar XJ: there is clear and substantial step up in survival rates with the introduction of the X350, the gross differential at the step appearing to be of the order of 12%: the largest jump we have yet seen in a model. The survival of the earlier X308 (on the basis of the proportion taxed) is comparable with its German rivals, but inferior to the Lexus LS, but the X350 appears to have survivability that increases over its rivals as time goes by: there is a noticeably flatter curve to the probability of being taxed against age for the X350 than is the case for the other cars considered, if this were to continue for the next couple of years surviving XJ would start to greatly outnumber their rivals, other than pre-2004 Lexus LSs, as they pass their fifteenth birthdays. It is not yet possible to determine whether the inherent survival rate will be affected by the transitions to the X358 and X351.

Lexus LS: the probability of an LS being still roadworthy drops sharply for cars built from 2004 onwards, this corresponds with a mid-life update of the XF30. This is, however, less apparent in the overall survival rate. Pre-2004 LS have impressive survival and roadworthiness rates that are comparable with those for the X350 Jaguar XJ, and way better than everything in the pre-X350 era. Post 2004, the proportion of LSs that are taxed are comparable with their German rivals. If is too early to draw any definitive conclusions on the relative inherent survivability between the XF30 and the XF40, although it appears that there might be the beginnings of another downward blip at the model change, but time will tell.

Mercedes S Class: as with the LS, there is what might be a slight downward blip in survivability in the transition between the W220 and the W221, but we would need another couple of years of data to confirm or deny this. Roadworthiness and survival rates for the W220 wobble slightly in 2002, but not as dramatically as is the case for the 7 Series. It might be that the improvements in the figures for 2003 is as a result of improvements in Mercedes quality following the well-known millennial era issues for the brand. In general, as the cars age, the proportion of taxed Mercedes is fractionally above that of the other two German brands but below than of Jaguars and pre-2004 Lexus LSs, other than in the case of First Generation Audi A8s and X308 Jaguar XJs.

Overall, the XJ and LS retain a clear survivability advantage over their rivals indicated in my earlier analysis of the howmanyleft.com data, but this is reduced. The three German cars are closely matched, other than a wobble from the 7 Series in 2002, following the introduction of the E65.

I would like to tackle something more straightforward next!

I am proposing to analyse the following market segments individually:

• Tiny hatchbacks (Lupo/Fox/Up, Ka, Matiz, etc.)
• Superminis (Fiesta, Polo, Mini, Corsa, Jazz, etc.)
• Family sized hatchbacks (done)
• Family cars (Mondeo, Vectra, Passat, S40/V40, etc.)
• Junior executive cars (A4, 3 Series, C Class, S60, X-Type, Accord, etc.)
• Executive cars (5 Series, A6, E Class, S-Type/XF, S80 etc.)
• Luxury cars (done)
• Small people carriers (Touran, C-Max, Megane Scenic, Meriva, etc.)
• Large people carriers (Sharan, Galaxy, Zafira, Sedona, etc.)
• SUVs
• Affordable sporting cars (it is not worth considering true exotica as this does not die)

I cannot see the point in doing estates per se, as these will just be a few percentage points above the model on which they are based, as we have already seen. But I will plot curves for an estate:base model pair or two, to see if the average lifespan curves differ: it might well be that estates have a flatter curve, and thus an increasing survival rate over time, but we will see…

Having just done the luxury segment, I don’t want to touch executive saloons yet, but what do you think that I should do next?


Edited by Car_Nut on Thursday 19th January 21:34


Edited by Car_Nut on Thursday 19th January 21:37

TVRJAS

2,391 posts

129 months

Thursday 19th January 2017
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SR20i said:
Nissan Primeras, cracking cars sadly most have been scrapped.
I've still got one alive but it's the estate version 2001 so the old style. Hardly ever gets used these days but still starts and gets you from a-b with no rattles or squeaks and the engine is really quiet.

End of June is it's mot time and sadly I think it could be game over,Cross members have been an advisory for the past 3 years but you can now actually press lightly with your finger and a new hole appears.

Only on 50k but cost of fixing just doesn't add up. Last time I filled it up with fuel was 11/8/16 and it's still got half a tank. I won't leave an emoticon because I don't know if to laugh or cry.

EDITED

My acknowledgement to Car-Nut for some amazing research.



Edited by TVRJAS on Thursday 19th January 22:38

Slow

6,973 posts

137 months

Thursday 19th January 2017
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Morningside said:
The classic large engine cars of the mid 1990s. Large engine Fords and Vauxhalls. The time when non of general public really gave a toss about MPG. But these days it seems a top requirement.

1) MPG
2) Safety
3) Colour
..
..
9999) How it actually looks.

Plus due to the crafty scrappage scheme where the Govenment managed to remove those pesky pre new tax rule cars off the roads by enabling you to buy some new Korean crap. Also on top of that was the crippling fuel screw-up of the 2000's they are becoming less and less.

Sad really as I cannot many 19yr old having the pleasure of owning a V8 or even a barmy tuned inline 4. It could get even worse when the possible EU green meddling stops anyone modding a car from stock.
At 19 I had a 2.2l straight six Bmw and a 3l td6 Range Rover. 21 and 22 have both had 2 v8s at all times (3 just now with 1 to sell).

Only my first car has ever gotten over 30 mpg average. Those young ones who like cars make the finances work. However for those who dont like cars and they are mearly a mode of transportation consider the insurance price above all else as large engines cripple it.

A.J.M

7,901 posts

186 months

Friday 20th January 2017
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Car Nut, your posts and graphs are excellent!

For the SUV research, would you break it down to "soft roaders" like the Freelander and CRV etc, then mid size like Discovery, Shogun etc and large/luxury like Range Rover, Q7 etc.

Trabi601

4,865 posts

95 months

Friday 20th January 2017
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SR20i said:
Nissan Primeras, cracking cars sadly most have been scrapped.
They could rot with the best of them, though. I had one for just under a year - it was a constant battle to keep the rot at bay - the sills used to fill with water!

anonymous-user

54 months

Friday 20th January 2017
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S10GTA said:
Saw a Vauxhall Cavalier today. Was a bit of a rare sight. Couldn't move for them a few years ago. It was a fetching shade of faded red on an F plate.

Apologies if already discussed.
Today I saw many old cars.

Similarly, I saw a G reg Ford Granada outside a Harvester branch. It was mint!

I saw a K reg Nova. It was low, had some irmscher body parts (but not a Sprint C kit). It was certainly loud, as in chavvy sort of loud. Mainly because it had a fart can.

X reg Saxo (MAX POWERRRRRR!!!!) It was bright orange, with a PROPER Max Power kit, lexus lights, the usual chavvy tat. 4 'zorsts. I'm suprised it survived 2007.

K reg Cavalier. This was stock. Looked tired.

J reg Merc S. I hate those horrible lights.





battered

4,088 posts

147 months

Friday 20th January 2017
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Mk1 Mondeo on the way to work this morning.

Car_Nut

598 posts

88 months

Saturday 21st January 2017
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A.J.M said:
For the SUV research, would you break it down to "soft roaders" like the Freelander and CRV etc, then mid size like Discovery, Shogun etc and large/luxury like Range Rover, Q7 etc.
Thanks for the kind comments. Happy to do this.

Have started to pull the data together for superminis, but could easily do another segment of the market first if there is a strong groundswell for anything else.

If we do superminis, am proposing Mini, Fabia, Polo, Fiesta, Jazz, Corsa, 106/107, Yaris, & Clio. I don't want more than eight lines on my graphs (ideally, I would prefer six), for reasons of legibility, so anything else will have to be by substitution. I am fairly firm that we need the first five of these cars in any analysis, but are there any strong views on any switches for the other three?

hondansx

4,569 posts

225 months

Saturday 21st January 2017
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battered said:
Mk1 Mondeo on the way to work this morning.
a
For me it's any Mondeo. With the Cavalier and Vectra, the Mondeo dominated the motorways. Now all the reps are in the more aspirational BMW or Audi, and if they want value Hyundai.

skyrover

12,671 posts

204 months

Saturday 21st January 2017
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Don't see many of these around anymore.