Everyday cars which are already starting to disappear
Discussion
I think that you mean 1.6M cars still taxed and the other 200k SORN in your list above.
Very interesting stats though. Are you in the car trade or is this just for interest?
Is there any hangover effect from scrappage scheme? Obviously more recent cars didn't get sucked into scrappage as they were too valuable, and the desirable models would (hopefully) survive, leaving the dross to get binned.
Very interesting stats though. Are you in the car trade or is this just for interest?
Is there any hangover effect from scrappage scheme? Obviously more recent cars didn't get sucked into scrappage as they were too valuable, and the desirable models would (hopefully) survive, leaving the dross to get binned.
battered said:
I think that you mean 1.6M cars still taxed and the other 200k SORN in your list above.
Very interesting stats though. Are you in the car trade or is this just for interest?
Is there any hangover effect from scrappage scheme? Obviously more recent cars didn't get sucked into scrappage as they were too valuable, and the desirable models would (hopefully) survive, leaving the dross to get binned.
Apologies, I mixed my lines of data up. Very interesting stats though. Are you in the car trade or is this just for interest?
Is there any hangover effect from scrappage scheme? Obviously more recent cars didn't get sucked into scrappage as they were too valuable, and the desirable models would (hopefully) survive, leaving the dross to get binned.
I am afraid that I am just obsessed by cars (or at least that is what the wife thinks!), and have been since before I could walk: "She was a phantom of delight ere she first gleamed upon my sight; a moment's apparition set to be a lovely ornament" - or something like that anyway! (Stand ready to be corrected by any Wordsworth scholars!)
I think that you are correct about scrappage - sure that I read something at the time about the scrappage scheme changing the profile of new cars purchased, certainly boosted Korean sales - think examining the relationship between Korean car survival and the reference curve will be interesting, to see to what extent they have moved on since the rather poor survival performance of their 2003 cars - if things are still bad for their 2009 cars, this might help explain the downward blip in the curve.
Back to the daily grind then!
Well it is not the Koreans causing the fluctuations in the overall survival trend between 2008 and 2012!
The following curves show the survival rates for the Hyundaim, Kia, and Ssangyong brands between 2001 and 2015 (I did not include Daewoo as sorting out the Chevroloos from the real Chevrolets, post brand name change is a job that I couldn’t be bothered to do).
As hopefully everybody can see, for cars less than ten years old Korean cars survive much better than average. There are several possible explanations for this:
1. The quality of Korean cars has improved.
2. The desirability of Korean cars has improved, and people are prepared to spend more on them to keep them going.
3. They are designed to last for the equivalent of ten years’ average UK use and then fall apart.
4. They tend to be bought by “careful drivers” who drive limited annual mileages, and are thus less likely to be written off in their youth.
5. Fewer Korean cars are used as hire or company vehicles, resulting in greater care being exercised in their early life.
It is, of course, entirely possible that two or more these factors might work in multiple.
From the data, we can see that Hyundais have consistently higher survival rates than their Kia cousins, other than for 2011 built cars. The Ssangyong data is compromised by limitations in the Government data: the information on surviving cars is for the entire UK, and is by year of manufacture, whereas up to 2015 first registration data is for GB only (I have still used GB data for 2015 for internal consistency reasons). There are two problems with this:
1. it ignores (mainly) Northern Ireland vehicles, and
2. the date of first registration and date of manufacture might not co-inside 9which in itself can be interesting).
Overall, as this applies to everything that we have looked the effect is not important, where is does have an impact is if a vehicle is wholly disproportionally popular in NI and has a relatively low market share, as I suspect might be the case of the Ssangyong, which achieves impressive survival rates of up to 109.5%!
But going back to the original thread topic: Korean cars from the early 2000s are disappearing from our roads rapidly.
The following curves show the survival rates for the Hyundaim, Kia, and Ssangyong brands between 2001 and 2015 (I did not include Daewoo as sorting out the Chevroloos from the real Chevrolets, post brand name change is a job that I couldn’t be bothered to do).
As hopefully everybody can see, for cars less than ten years old Korean cars survive much better than average. There are several possible explanations for this:
1. The quality of Korean cars has improved.
2. The desirability of Korean cars has improved, and people are prepared to spend more on them to keep them going.
3. They are designed to last for the equivalent of ten years’ average UK use and then fall apart.
4. They tend to be bought by “careful drivers” who drive limited annual mileages, and are thus less likely to be written off in their youth.
5. Fewer Korean cars are used as hire or company vehicles, resulting in greater care being exercised in their early life.
It is, of course, entirely possible that two or more these factors might work in multiple.
From the data, we can see that Hyundais have consistently higher survival rates than their Kia cousins, other than for 2011 built cars. The Ssangyong data is compromised by limitations in the Government data: the information on surviving cars is for the entire UK, and is by year of manufacture, whereas up to 2015 first registration data is for GB only (I have still used GB data for 2015 for internal consistency reasons). There are two problems with this:
1. it ignores (mainly) Northern Ireland vehicles, and
2. the date of first registration and date of manufacture might not co-inside 9which in itself can be interesting).
Overall, as this applies to everything that we have looked the effect is not important, where is does have an impact is if a vehicle is wholly disproportionally popular in NI and has a relatively low market share, as I suspect might be the case of the Ssangyong, which achieves impressive survival rates of up to 109.5%!
But going back to the original thread topic: Korean cars from the early 2000s are disappearing from our roads rapidly.
Edited by Car_Nut on Tuesday 10th January 18:38
Kia have improved their cars no end in the last 10 to 15 years. Early 2000 offerings were awful. The pride, the picanto. Nobody was proud of either, and the Picanto was nothing of the kind. However a lifelong fan of the brand gave me a lift in her new Sportage and it was excellent. She's what you might think of as a typical Kia owner- low miles, family use, well maintained, not abused. It's white goods and there's nothing wrong with that.
Jimmy Recard said:
Your data compilations are brilliant. I'm assuming you have experience in this?
It is very kind of you. Yes I do this kind of stuff for a living - producing professional reports is my main work stream. This is a relaxation, as the data quality is much better, more complete & more coherent than the stuff I usually have to work with.I think popular family size hatchbacks next don't you?
djc206 said:
ensignia said:
People saying Cortinas and Novas ffs 
No car disappeared quicker than the Saxo considering it was launched in the mid 90s. They have all but vanished now.
There about 30,000 still registered and taxed.No car disappeared quicker than the Saxo considering it was launched in the mid 90s. They have all but vanished now.
Interestingly there were 40,000 VTR's and only ~4000 are left on the roads. I wonder how many were written off?
Spotted this morning
Red Volkswagen Derby (I think that's their name. The Polo with a boot)
Yesterday I saw a 2CV. These bloody things were everywhere at one time spewing out blue smoke everywhere so I never understood why the eco ban the bomb, no to nuclear power crowd had them.
Over the weekend
A mid 1990s oval grill Ford Escort and a classic Mk1 Jelly-mold Sierra.
Kitchski said:
djc206 said:
ensignia said:
People saying Cortinas and Novas ffs
No car disappeared quicker than the Saxo considering it was launched in the mid 90s. They have all but vanished now.
There about 30,000 still registered and taxed.No car disappeared quicker than the Saxo considering it was launched in the mid 90s. They have all but vanished now.
Interestingly there were 40,000 VTR's and only ~4000 are left on the roads. I wonder how many were written off?
DaveGoddard said:
Most Mk1 and Mk2 Mondeos, early Civics (as in the shape of the one pictured above), Granada Scorpios (the horrid frog-eyed ones) and Cavaliers have been banger raced by now I think.
Indeed, not many Civics like mine about - specially in as good condition as mine is in, along with its counterpart... the Rover 45/400 - they seem to be dwindling away.Truth be told, I'd love a MK1 Mondeo, something like the 1.8 Diesel Verona.
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