Everyday cars which are already starting to disappear
Discussion
It WILL get worse with the "Hidden EU Scrapheap" system.
The reduction of legally required parts availability (reduced to 7 years post production, eg Mk1-Mk2 etc not "Focus") is starting to bite.
Only those cars with after market support can carry on for long now a single unavailable sensor can remove a car from the road.
The reduction of legally required parts availability (reduced to 7 years post production, eg Mk1-Mk2 etc not "Focus") is starting to bite.
Only those cars with after market support can carry on for long now a single unavailable sensor can remove a car from the road.
Edited by Stickyfinger on Wednesday 11th January 14:15
Stickyfinger said:
It WILL get worse with the "Hidden EU Scrapheap" system.
The reduction of legally required parts availability (reduced to 7 years post production, eg Mk1-Mk2 etc not "Focus") is starting to bite.
Only those cars with after market support can carry on for long now a single unavailable sensor can remove a car from the road.
Have you got any reference to that?The reduction of legally required parts availability (reduced to 7 years post production, eg Mk1-Mk2 etc not "Focus") is starting to bite.
Only those cars with after market support can carry on for long now a single unavailable sensor can remove a car from the road.
My understanding was that it was always a manufacturer "gentleman's agreement", rather than any legal requirement.
TooMany2cvs said:
Have you got any reference to that?
My understanding was that it was always a manufacturer "gentleman's agreement", rather than any legal requirement.
I admit no & I have not searched for it, I was informed by one of the chief parts/supply managers at PSA HQ in Coventry during a conversation at the PSA Head Office annual BBQ (some invited classic owners to show the staff) who told me the rules had changed last year....Citroen reduced "old stock" on the strength of it and scrapped over 40 tonnes of Old Stock for tax "reasons" (he was not a happy bunny about it)My understanding was that it was always a manufacturer "gentleman's agreement", rather than any legal requirement.
FAMILY HATCHBACK SURVIVAL
As you can see I have crunched the government databases for the Ford Focus, Honda Civic, Peugeot 307 & 308, Renault Megane, Vauxhall Astra, and VW Golf.
To try and put the numbers on an equivalent basis I have tried to take out anything that is not a hatchback, as some of the models have, or have had, estate, people mover, convertible, saloon and coupe versions, since all of these will have different (probably higher) survival rates than the mainstream hatch version. This has not been an easy task, as I would not claim an encyclopaedic knowledge of all model ranges over the past fifteen years: for example, there are (from memory) something like 650 different Astra variants alone in the database. This has been most problematic in the case of the Focus, where I was unable to identify any way of disaggregating the estate variants (which as we have already seen have higher survival rates than saloon models), and to a lesser extent in the case of the Golf, where I have only been able to knock a smallish proportion of the estates on the head. Accordingly, when we look at the figures we need to bear in mind that we are probably slightly overstating Focus survival, and less slightly overstating Golf survival. If anyone can help weeding these out…
One interesting by product of this exercise was to spot that there are literally thousands of Megane convertibles around 15 years old that are SORNed. Presumably these are much-loved cars that are sitting quietly rotting in front gardens, awaiting miraculous resurrections.
I have, however, retained all hatchback performance variants: this is PH after all! In any case, in these days of subtle graduations from slightly warm hatches to full fat road burners, where does one draw the line?
There are some glitches with the 2015 data: there appears to have been a change of collection methodology in 2015, which is always the bane of analysis, but the practice of pre-registration might also be having a distorting impact on the data (applies to several recent years). Accordingly, the graph below presents the data from 2001 to 2014 only. I am afraid that with six models the graph is a bit busy, I have used different line types as well as different colours, to assist those with colour vision difficulties.
As nothing much interesting happens in the 2009 to 2014 period, as one would expect, this second graph zooming into the 2001 to 2009 period is a bit clearer.
For those who want to drill down further the numbers behind the graphs are in the following table (the issue with the 2015 data is clearly apparent):
Overall, it can be seen that battle for supremacy in the survival stakes is between the Golf and the Civic (but see comments below), but whereas Golfs eventually start to pass on to the great car park in the sky, Civics just seem to keep going on and on. The effect is even more marked when one looks at the number that are still taxed and on the roads: once they get more than six years old the SORN rate is far lower than anything else bar the Golf, the Golf manages to hang on until after thirteen years the rate of increase of Golf SORNing rate markedly exceeds that of the Civic, whose surviving examples are more likely to be still earning their keep.
The Focus is a clear third in the survival stakes, but well clear of the Astra and the 307/308, who are closely matched, both to each other, and to the reference survival curve. Poor little Megane 2, most of which have ceased shaking their backsides!
In my earlier assessments of survival rates, based on a small sample of each, I predicted survival rates for 2003 for the Focus, Golf, and Astra of 81.2%, 81.1%, and 69.2% respectively. In fact, the actual rates were 77.3%, 84.7%, and 64.8%, the biggest issue was overstating the relative survival rate of the Focus, as a result of being too interested in the performance and top spec variants, which as we have seen tend to survive better.
Looking at each model in greater detail:
Ford Focus – variants included Focus Mk 1 to 2005, Focus Mk 2 2005 to 2011, Focus Mk 3 2011 to date. A very solid performance in the PH survival stakes, that appears to be pretty consistent across all incarnations of the Focus. The survival rate for Focuses over ten years old appears set to exceed that of the Golf, once the Golf Mk 4 drops off the end of our graph (see below). Focus Mk 1 numbers are in rapid decline now.
Honda Civic – variants included: Sixth Generation to 2001, Seventh Generation 2001 to 2005, Eighth Generation 2005 to 2011, Ninth Generation 2011 to 2015. What more can one say? Seventh Generation and on Civics are likely to be on our roads in some quantity for several years yet.
Peugeot 307 & 308 – variants included: 307 2001 to 2007, 308 2007 to date. A solid performance, with the survival rate pinned almost exactly to the overall reference trend line. Not a smooth transition between the 307 and 308, as it appears that the survival rate for the 307 is around 4% better than that for the 308 as the cars approach the end of their first decade, so the long-term survival performance is likely drop below the Astra as the 308s age. Neither seem in danger of imminent extinction.
Renault Megane – variants included: Megane 1 to 2002, Megane 2 2002 to 2009, Megane 3 2008 to 2016. The least said the better; however, it seems that the main problem with survival rates afflicted the Megane 2, and the early signs are that the Megane 3 might well be more durable, although one needs to exercise caution when attempting to link a high survival rate in the first few years to long-term durability. The Megane 1 is already rare on our roads, with the Megane 2 set to follow it over the next few years.
Vauxhall Astra – variants included: Astra Mk IV to 2004, Astra Mk V 2004 to 2010, Astra Mk VI 2010 to 2015. Some might regard the Astra’s performance in the PH survival stakes as symptomatic of the car itself: average, competent, and unspectacular. As with the Focus the survival rate appears to be unchanged by the regeneration from Mk IV to Mk V.
Volkswagen Golf – variants included: Mk 4 to 2004. Mk 5 2004 to 2009, Mk 6 2009 to 2014, Mk 7 2014 to date. It is clear that there are two distinct curves to the graph, with that up to the last full year of Mk 4 sales in 2003, having a higher trend than that from 2005 onwards (the first full year of Mk 5 sales). This is no surprise to me, having ownership experience either side of the Mk 4/5 divide, I have been of the opinion for some years that the durability and quality of components used reached a high point with the Mk 4, and that the Mk 5 marked the start of a drastic deterioration in underlying product quality for VW Group as a whole. Having said that the Mk 4 is a fairly stodgy drive, in my view, whereas the Mk 5 is a lot sharper and more fun to drive – it just depends on whether one is paying for one’s own motoring or not. I predict that the overall survival rate of Golfs is likely to fall, as the Mk 4s fall off the end of our graph. In the context of the thread it cannot be said that the Mk 4 Golf is disappearing from our roads.
As you can see I have crunched the government databases for the Ford Focus, Honda Civic, Peugeot 307 & 308, Renault Megane, Vauxhall Astra, and VW Golf.
To try and put the numbers on an equivalent basis I have tried to take out anything that is not a hatchback, as some of the models have, or have had, estate, people mover, convertible, saloon and coupe versions, since all of these will have different (probably higher) survival rates than the mainstream hatch version. This has not been an easy task, as I would not claim an encyclopaedic knowledge of all model ranges over the past fifteen years: for example, there are (from memory) something like 650 different Astra variants alone in the database. This has been most problematic in the case of the Focus, where I was unable to identify any way of disaggregating the estate variants (which as we have already seen have higher survival rates than saloon models), and to a lesser extent in the case of the Golf, where I have only been able to knock a smallish proportion of the estates on the head. Accordingly, when we look at the figures we need to bear in mind that we are probably slightly overstating Focus survival, and less slightly overstating Golf survival. If anyone can help weeding these out…
One interesting by product of this exercise was to spot that there are literally thousands of Megane convertibles around 15 years old that are SORNed. Presumably these are much-loved cars that are sitting quietly rotting in front gardens, awaiting miraculous resurrections.
I have, however, retained all hatchback performance variants: this is PH after all! In any case, in these days of subtle graduations from slightly warm hatches to full fat road burners, where does one draw the line?
There are some glitches with the 2015 data: there appears to have been a change of collection methodology in 2015, which is always the bane of analysis, but the practice of pre-registration might also be having a distorting impact on the data (applies to several recent years). Accordingly, the graph below presents the data from 2001 to 2014 only. I am afraid that with six models the graph is a bit busy, I have used different line types as well as different colours, to assist those with colour vision difficulties.
As nothing much interesting happens in the 2009 to 2014 period, as one would expect, this second graph zooming into the 2001 to 2009 period is a bit clearer.
For those who want to drill down further the numbers behind the graphs are in the following table (the issue with the 2015 data is clearly apparent):
Overall, it can be seen that battle for supremacy in the survival stakes is between the Golf and the Civic (but see comments below), but whereas Golfs eventually start to pass on to the great car park in the sky, Civics just seem to keep going on and on. The effect is even more marked when one looks at the number that are still taxed and on the roads: once they get more than six years old the SORN rate is far lower than anything else bar the Golf, the Golf manages to hang on until after thirteen years the rate of increase of Golf SORNing rate markedly exceeds that of the Civic, whose surviving examples are more likely to be still earning their keep.
The Focus is a clear third in the survival stakes, but well clear of the Astra and the 307/308, who are closely matched, both to each other, and to the reference survival curve. Poor little Megane 2, most of which have ceased shaking their backsides!
In my earlier assessments of survival rates, based on a small sample of each, I predicted survival rates for 2003 for the Focus, Golf, and Astra of 81.2%, 81.1%, and 69.2% respectively. In fact, the actual rates were 77.3%, 84.7%, and 64.8%, the biggest issue was overstating the relative survival rate of the Focus, as a result of being too interested in the performance and top spec variants, which as we have seen tend to survive better.
Looking at each model in greater detail:
Ford Focus – variants included Focus Mk 1 to 2005, Focus Mk 2 2005 to 2011, Focus Mk 3 2011 to date. A very solid performance in the PH survival stakes, that appears to be pretty consistent across all incarnations of the Focus. The survival rate for Focuses over ten years old appears set to exceed that of the Golf, once the Golf Mk 4 drops off the end of our graph (see below). Focus Mk 1 numbers are in rapid decline now.
Honda Civic – variants included: Sixth Generation to 2001, Seventh Generation 2001 to 2005, Eighth Generation 2005 to 2011, Ninth Generation 2011 to 2015. What more can one say? Seventh Generation and on Civics are likely to be on our roads in some quantity for several years yet.
Peugeot 307 & 308 – variants included: 307 2001 to 2007, 308 2007 to date. A solid performance, with the survival rate pinned almost exactly to the overall reference trend line. Not a smooth transition between the 307 and 308, as it appears that the survival rate for the 307 is around 4% better than that for the 308 as the cars approach the end of their first decade, so the long-term survival performance is likely drop below the Astra as the 308s age. Neither seem in danger of imminent extinction.
Renault Megane – variants included: Megane 1 to 2002, Megane 2 2002 to 2009, Megane 3 2008 to 2016. The least said the better; however, it seems that the main problem with survival rates afflicted the Megane 2, and the early signs are that the Megane 3 might well be more durable, although one needs to exercise caution when attempting to link a high survival rate in the first few years to long-term durability. The Megane 1 is already rare on our roads, with the Megane 2 set to follow it over the next few years.
Vauxhall Astra – variants included: Astra Mk IV to 2004, Astra Mk V 2004 to 2010, Astra Mk VI 2010 to 2015. Some might regard the Astra’s performance in the PH survival stakes as symptomatic of the car itself: average, competent, and unspectacular. As with the Focus the survival rate appears to be unchanged by the regeneration from Mk IV to Mk V.
Volkswagen Golf – variants included: Mk 4 to 2004. Mk 5 2004 to 2009, Mk 6 2009 to 2014, Mk 7 2014 to date. It is clear that there are two distinct curves to the graph, with that up to the last full year of Mk 4 sales in 2003, having a higher trend than that from 2005 onwards (the first full year of Mk 5 sales). This is no surprise to me, having ownership experience either side of the Mk 4/5 divide, I have been of the opinion for some years that the durability and quality of components used reached a high point with the Mk 4, and that the Mk 5 marked the start of a drastic deterioration in underlying product quality for VW Group as a whole. Having said that the Mk 4 is a fairly stodgy drive, in my view, whereas the Mk 5 is a lot sharper and more fun to drive – it just depends on whether one is paying for one’s own motoring or not. I predict that the overall survival rate of Golfs is likely to fall, as the Mk 4s fall off the end of our graph. In the context of the thread it cannot be said that the Mk 4 Golf is disappearing from our roads.
Edited by Car_Nut on Thursday 12th January 16:23
Excellent report and totally agree with you about the Golf MK4. These cars are wearing very well. Never see a rusty one and they mostly have the bullet proof 1.9 TDI engine which was much more robust that its successors....I don't think the stodgy drive becomes all that relevant with really old cars as people tend to make allowances for old cheaper stuff.
Also agree about the Honda Civic. Honda really builds durable cars. Even with the diesel engine you never hear about the sort of terminal engine problems that you get with VAG/BMW and others. The Honest John reports some DMF issues with the 2.2 CDTI, but no chocolate timing chains or inherent weaknesses with the EGR or injectors.....
Also agree about the Honda Civic. Honda really builds durable cars. Even with the diesel engine you never hear about the sort of terminal engine problems that you get with VAG/BMW and others. The Honest John reports some DMF issues with the 2.2 CDTI, but no chocolate timing chains or inherent weaknesses with the EGR or injectors.....
I don't think you had the Mazda RX8 in your original stats Car Nut. I haven't checked but I reckon they are disappearing in large numbers now as they are worth peanuts and a lot have reached the end of their life and need engine rebuilds etc. In other words I doubt they compare very favourably to other coupes/sports cars.
I agree re the Astra. I think that there are cars like the Astra that make great bangers but poor newish cars. As said above, banger drivers are prepared to make allowances provided the things carry on working. I remember that a few years ago, in 2010, I needed cheap wheels and I got a 1.4 basic Astra, 1994 model. As a car it was pretty poor - no PAS, keep fit windows, modest performance. But all these things made it a great banger - 45 to 50 mpg, rock reliable, nothing to break, get it repaired everywhere for thrupence or DIY, and so on. If you'd handed over £3k or £4k for it as a (say) 5 yr old car you would have been disappointed because it wouldn't have been any better to drive than it was when I owned it, and you'd be a few thousand in. It only made sense when it was ridiculously cheap.
Also I agree re the RX8. It may be a great car but if it needs the rotor tips repairing every 50k miles at £1000 a time (whatever) then once it starts getting a bit smoky and suffering poor hot starting then you will get rid cheap rather than put £1000 into an old car. 20mpg must hurt a bit too.
Also I agree re the RX8. It may be a great car but if it needs the rotor tips repairing every 50k miles at £1000 a time (whatever) then once it starts getting a bit smoky and suffering poor hot starting then you will get rid cheap rather than put £1000 into an old car. 20mpg must hurt a bit too.
greenarrow said:
Excellent report and totally agree with you about the Golf MK4. These cars are wearing very well. Never see a rusty one and they mostly have the bullet proof 1.9 TDI engine which was much more robust that its successors....I don't think the stodgy drive becomes all that relevant with really old cars as people tend to make allowances for old cheaper stuff.
Also agree about the Honda Civic. Honda really builds durable cars. Even with the diesel engine you never hear about the sort of terminal engine problems that you get with VAG/BMW and others. The Honest John reports some DMF issues with the 2.2 CDTI, but no chocolate timing chains or inherent weaknesses with the EGR or injectors.....
Thanks for this!Also agree about the Honda Civic. Honda really builds durable cars. Even with the diesel engine you never hear about the sort of terminal engine problems that you get with VAG/BMW and others. The Honest John reports some DMF issues with the 2.2 CDTI, but no chocolate timing chains or inherent weaknesses with the EGR or injectors.....
Hub said:
I don't think you had the Mazda RX8 in your original stats Car Nut. I haven't checked but I reckon they are disappearing in large numbers now as they are worth peanuts and a lot have reached the end of their life and need engine rebuilds etc. In other words I doubt they compare very favourably to other coupes/sports cars.
No I didn't, could not include every niche model, but happy to have a look. (Also managed to omit the Mini somehow!! Something that needs to be rectified).I feel the inclination to look a big barges now - somebody has already said that they were off to buy a Jaguar XJ, hopefully not totally on the strength of the thread, but it is enough to start to make me feel the need for total robustness in my work.
Car_Nut said:
there are literally thousands of Megane convertibles around 15 years old that are SORNed. Presumably these are much-loved cars that are sitting quietly rotting in front gardens, awaiting miraculous resurrections.
I would imagine that these are cars insured for the summer months only and kept off-road at this time of year.NickCQ said:
Car_Nut said:
there are literally thousands of Megane convertibles around 15 years old that are SORNed. Presumably these are much-loved cars that are sitting quietly rotting in front gardens, awaiting miraculous resurrections.
I would imagine that these are cars insured for the summer months only and kept off-road at this time of year.The RX-8 is a good shout. They've really declined heavily over recent years. I suppose the wear-prone engine and the fact that they're very thirsty and pretty slow did it for them. The place where I did my motorbike lessons was next to an RX-8 graveyard. Loads of them sitting round being broken up for spares, along with an E34 5 series.
I'm surprised the survival rates of 15 yr old cars are so high (40+%) as I don't "feel" that I see that many of the popular cars from that era on the roads any more. I don't know if the DVLA data is available but I assume that the %age drops dramatically as you approach 20yrs.
So even though there might be quite a few of the early 00s Mk1 Foci around, the pre-2000 ones must be getting crushed at a rapid rate.
(PS I also dislike seeing the data for how close our car is getting to the "average scrapping age"...)
So even though there might be quite a few of the early 00s Mk1 Foci around, the pre-2000 ones must be getting crushed at a rapid rate.
(PS I also dislike seeing the data for how close our car is getting to the "average scrapping age"...)
eldar said:
I saw an elderly Alfa Romeo Arna on the M69 today. UK reg, RHD. D reg, so 1986.
According to how many left, 2 are SORN and the last licenced disappeared in 2003. How accurate is the data?
There are a couple of Nissan Cherry Europes kicking around - at one point there was a Cherry which had been given an Arna makeover.According to how many left, 2 are SORN and the last licenced disappeared in 2003. How accurate is the data?
I wonder if that's what has happened here?
Although I do know of one Arna which is still on the road - which demonstrates that the data isn't 100% accurate.
Edited to add: B660 LCH is registered as a Cherry Europe, but has been shown at Alfa shows as an Arna!
I'll add a further edit - the owner of that car milks it for all it is worth - he shows it at Alfa shows and has it in Italian car media as an Alfa - but has also punted it around with Nissan badges for Japanese shows and media. It's a shame he feels the need to do this, in my opinion, as there is definitely an Arna kicking around the Alfa scene.
Edited by Trabi601 on Thursday 12th January 23:30
Saw an R reg Calibra on the way home last night. Looked in quite good condition.
Haven't seen a Mercedes W123 for ages. Always fancied the estate one.
I have a Cortina based kitcar. I've started to find some bits needing a bit of ringing around to find. Ford don't have them on their computer system now, so no chance of NOS gathering dust on a shelf out the back at the dealers. I'm sure it wasn't that way when it was on Microfilm (showing how old & knackered I am).
I had to convert the BL/Mini sealed beam headlights when one blew to replaceable bulb ones as I wanted the car fixed in a hurry. No auto factors in the area had any and I could not wait for a specialist to supply them. Though the new ones are much better lights, it is a sign of how it's going.
Ah, when I were a lad even Halfords stocked a decent amount of spares !
Haven't seen a Mercedes W123 for ages. Always fancied the estate one.
I have a Cortina based kitcar. I've started to find some bits needing a bit of ringing around to find. Ford don't have them on their computer system now, so no chance of NOS gathering dust on a shelf out the back at the dealers. I'm sure it wasn't that way when it was on Microfilm (showing how old & knackered I am).
I had to convert the BL/Mini sealed beam headlights when one blew to replaceable bulb ones as I wanted the car fixed in a hurry. No auto factors in the area had any and I could not wait for a specialist to supply them. Though the new ones are much better lights, it is a sign of how it's going.
Ah, when I were a lad even Halfords stocked a decent amount of spares !
In New Zealand, I have 1 x '70 Peugeot 404 sedan, 2x 306 Cabriolets(both '98 twin cam 2.0) & an '02 406 Coupe 3.0 V6. We dont salt our roads, it rains less, we have more sun and new cars dearer than UK in relation to wages/salaries. So we tend to maintain our cars better for longer. Have observed what the article describes having been to UK twice. Cheers
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