Say there is a diesel backlash ?

[J4CKO]

There wont be much choice for anyone buying a used car, there arent really any Petrols out there !

Pick any popular model on AT, say a Passat, look at all the cars for the last six years or so,

Diesel : 2515

Petrol : 16

With most, if you rule out superminis and Sporty versions, there really isnt much out there, things are better if you drop down to Golf size, but still 5608 to 2105 in favour of diesel.

Wonder if consumers will start changing, certainly evidence in our office, was pretty much all diesel but we now have a few petrols and a Tesla.

How do you think the car market will pan out over the next ten years ?

[Glasgowrob]

everyone will ending up on a lease for a little eurobox petrol at £99 a month

[halo34]

I suspect that the market will be ready for "change" when manufacturers start to write down the values of diesels more heavily than they are now in PCP deals. A gradual enforcement of city diesel bans up to certain euro categories and encouragement towards green vehicles will underpin this.

There is too much tied up in the current "stock" as an asset for the corporations allowing a major policy shift to happen just yet, too many people have a vested interest in the values staying within certain parameters for now. But it will be interesting in 3-4 years time to see what that's panning out. I think we will be drip fed bad news stories for a while first, they will gear up a production shift (note VW amazingly seeing the light and investing heavily in alternative tech) and then suddenly there is a good reason to buy a new car again.

Call me cynical but its all just a ploy to make sure purchasing of new cars stays high, profits are good and people are just scared enough to do what they are told...

I am not arguing of course that diesel shouldn't find a way out of our lives, if it makes sense, but remain deeply cynical that moving the emissions issue somewhere else (aka hybrids and electric cars) is yet better for the environment for the moment.

[tjlees]

95%+ of goods are transported around by diesel so it won't die anytime soon. Taxing diesel to death would have a major impact on the economy.

Some major cities may band diesel and possibly petrol cars in favour of electric transport, which won't really effect most of us (or certainly not me) since I always take pheasant transport into cities since its usually faster and cheaper - I think the last time I drove into London was 10 years ago and that was on a Sunday.

They may do diesel scrappage on anything less than euro 6, but it would have to ensure the 40k I and my OH do across two diesels is cheaper and just as convenient.

[tomic]

I've noticed this - looking to change my current car for something able to seat 3 kids in car seats comfortably. I live in London so definitely don't want Diesel. My choice is massively limited.

[ChrisR99]

Maybe there aren't many petrol Passats for sale due to VW not actually offering them in the UK for the last several years?

The transition away from diesel will be a slow process, and has really only just begun in the last year or so, so it'll take quite a while before the used market reflects that.

I have to say, I've started noticing more new petrol models of saloons & 4x4s like the 3 Series etc than previously, so it is happening slowly.

[ChrisR99]

tomic said:

I've noticed this - looking to change my current car for something able to seat 3 kids in car seats comfortably. I live in London so definitely don't want Diesel. My choice is massively limited.

Are you looking at new or used?

There are several people carriers on the market that have viable petrol engines, like the C4 Picasso, 1.2T Puretech 130 which according to reviews is actually rather good!

[icepop]

I've driven both the SEAT 1.2tsi, and Fiesta 1lt Ecoboost, and been given a lift in a new Astra 1lt, and all three are a revelation. They really do pull very nicely, well into licence loosing speeds.

I went for another SEAT 1.6 Tdi, and as before am getting 60mpg around town and 70mpg on a run, but do think it might be my last diesel, those petrols are mighty smooth and impressive, and f course, cause wild flower meadows to bloom

[Jonmx]

It's good grounds for me to keep my 23 year old MX5 and get the work done on it to keep it on the road. Rather glad I sold my XC70 when I did last year, the big old D5 unit won't be a popular one. That said I'd have my 123D coupe back in a heartbeat. 08 plate and MOT checker shows it's just ticked over 40k.
I think as someone has suggested, a lot of pcp type cheapy deals will be popping up and we'll probably see runways full of scrappage diesels.
I recall Mazda a few years ago announcing they were going to focus on small petrol engines as they believed they were the future. Link below:

http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/next-ge...

[caelite]

Honestly I can see major backlash happening in some cities outside of London around 'certain' diesels. Farmers have been commuting into Glasgow in 20 year old land rovers for the best part of 6 decades, the only thing an emissions ban will accomplish here is a bunch of falsely plated 4x4s running about evading ANPR. They already become mysteriously covered in cow st well they roll up the A9 .

And across all poorer northern cities which have a larger populous of people who don't have the option to buy newer cars. These people will be backed into a corner where just ignoring the ban is going to be their only option (myself being one of them as I commute in outwith public transport hours in a euro 2 petrol).

I can see a rather massive backlash occuring if and when these retroactive emissions legislations spread

[Roger Irrelevant]

tjlees said:

I always take pheasant transport into cities since its usually faster and cheaper

Do you ride shotgun when you do that?

[DonkeyApple]

J4CKO said:

There wont be much choice for anyone buying a used car, there arent really any Petrols out there !

Pick any popular model on AT, say a Passat, look at all the cars for the last six years or so,

Diesel : 2515

Petrol : 16

With most, if you rule out superminis and Sporty versions, there really isnt much out there, things are better if you drop down to Golf size, but still 5608 to 2105 in favour of diesel.

Wonder if consumers will start changing, certainly evidence in our office, was pretty much all diesel but we now have a few petrols and a Tesla.

How do you think the car market will pan out over the next ten years ?

The only reason for the diesel numbers is taxation. Taxation controls the actions of the masses extremely efficiently and even more so the actions of companies.

So, whatever tax changes are enacted, within two years you will see the structural change.

[rxe]

Even as a London dweller, I think the whole diesel thing is massively overplayed.

At the moment, the only thing on the cards is the central congestion charge zone, an area that I haven't driven in for about a decade because driving is a really crap way of getting around. You can't move, you can't park, and there is a perfectly good tube system. So no impact there. I doubt the zone will be extended because the financial impact to the number of voters that matter will be huge. Other cities will be similar.

So really, you're looking at fuel price hikes (won't happen because the freight industry will scream), and direct tax rises on the cars - doesn't affect the current s/h fleet.

Now is the time to buy a nice cheap Euro 3/4 car and enjoy 600+ miles on a tank, easy tuning and low maintenance costs for a few years. Having picked up a temporary 140 mile a day commute, my diesel shed has paid for itself in a month.

[BoRED S2upid]

icepop said:

I've driven both the SEAT 1.2tsi, and Fiesta 1lt Ecoboost, and been given a lift in a new Astra 1lt, and all three are a revelation. They really do pull very nicely, well into licence loosing speeds.

I went for another SEAT 1.6 Tdi, and as before am getting 60mpg around town and 70mpg on a run, but do think it might be my last diesel, those petrols are mighty smooth and impressive, and f course, cause wild flower meadows to bloom

Really? You thought a 1ltr Astra was a revelation? I thought it needed screwing in every single gear to make any progress it was hard work over 200 miles a lot more changing gear required over a Tdi. Fiesta was much better Focus and Astra are too big and heavy for such small engines IMO.

I will stick to the devils fuel for a long time yet.

[anonymous-user]

It is mildly difficult. Will; be selling the Clubman soon and I have been looking at Audi and BMW estates.
Mostly all diesels in my price range. May just buy one..

[tomic]

rxe said:

Even as a London dweller, I think the whole diesel thing is massively overplayed.

At the moment, the only thing on the cards is the central congestion charge zone, an area that I haven't driven in for about a decade because driving is a really crap way of getting around. You can't move, you can't park, and there is a perfectly good tube system. So no impact there. I doubt the zone will be extended because the financial impact to the number of voters that matter will be huge. Other cities will be similar.

So really, you're looking at fuel price hikes (won't happen because the freight industry will scream), and direct tax rises on the cars - doesn't affect the current s/h fleet.

Now is the time to buy a nice cheap Euro 3/4 car and enjoy 600+ miles on a tank, easy tuning and low maintenance costs for a few years. Having picked up a temporary 140 mile a day commute, my diesel shed has paid for itself in a month.

The chances are the T zone will be extended out to the South/ north circular within 2 years though

[philmots]

BoRED S2upid said:

icepop said:

I've driven both the SEAT 1.2tsi, and Fiesta 1lt Ecoboost, and been given a lift in a new Astra 1lt, and all three are a revelation. They really do pull very nicely, well into licence loosing speeds.

I went for another SEAT 1.6 Tdi, and as before am getting 60mpg around town and 70mpg on a run, but do think it might be my last diesel, those petrols are mighty smooth and impressive, and f course, cause wild flower meadows to bloom

Really? You thought a 1ltr Astra was a revelation? I thought it needed screwing in every single gear to make any progress it was hard work over 200 miles a lot more changing gear required over a Tdi. Fiesta was much better Focus and Astra are too big and heavy for such small engines IMO.

I will stick to the devils fuel for a long time yet.

Was it the new Astra? The new one is 200kgs lighter than the old one and probably very similar to a Fiesta in weight.

[irocfan]

People are going to be rightly pissed off though. Having had 20 years of 'the man' telling you that diesel is the way to save the polar bear now the very same how were extolling the benefits of the black are saying that you're one step away from a mass murderer.

And then they wonder why people choose not to listen to experts

[J4CKO]

irocfan said:

People are going to be rightly pissed off though. Having had 20 years of 'the man' telling you that diesel is the way to save the polar bear now the very same how were extolling the benefits of the black are saying that you're one step away from a mass murderer.

And then they wonder why people choose not to listen to experts

Indeed, same with dietary advice, but playing devils advocate, new evidence comes to light from research that is being done all the time, it just always seems so cynical.

For a working man wanting a secondhand family car, at an affordable price to cart four or five people, plus stuff, there isnt much none diesel choice,

Petrols tend to be,

Superminis
Daft, expensive, super thirsty things like AMG's
Pre 2010 Barge type stuff (post 2010 barges tend to be diesel by and large in my experience)
Povvo spec 1.6 Focus/Golf type stuff
GTI type stuff

Then you get the occasional 2 litre turbo stuff, which has the performance of a diesel but nowhere near the economy, I suspect the Focus Ecoboost and similar is about the best bet for something that can (but doesnt always, granted) manage decent MPG whilst being at least a decent size, I think the downsized Petrol turbos will be the de-facto choice if owning a diesel gets too much like hard work, but like has been said, an awful lot of investment in the nationwide fleet of vehicles, a lot of it is with the finance houses, manufacturers etc, I cant see diesel cars getting taxed to death just yet, but I really wouldnt buy anything with one, unless its something that only makes sens with one, bigger SUV's and MPV's, maybe Mondeo sized stuff but Golf/Focus and Below, I would go for the downsized petrol or Hybrid, or the sportier petrol variant, there you have it chaps, man maths to justify that Focus RS or Golf R to the missus.

[fathomfive]

Roger Irrelevant said:

tjlees said:

I always take pheasant transport into cities since its usually faster and cheaper

Do you ride shotgun when you do that?

Puns, it's that ptarmigan.