RE: Caterham Sale: The Full Story
Discussion
Ex Boy Racer said:
And how could i possibly respond to such a well thought out argument???
Feel free to do a quick lookup, I've responded to that nonsense at great length and in tremendous detail time and time gain on these Lotus threads. Forgive me if I don't have he inclination to do it every time someone grossly misunderstands Lotus, Colin Chapman or the financial realities of the course that has been erromeously set since the debut of the Elise. If you find anything you disagree with then I'll be happy to respond.
Cathal, am I correct to read that you think Behar's plans have a chance of sucess? I just can't see it. Time and time again, the market has proven that petrolheads are NOT the buyers of exotica. Take the Evora. Apparently it trounces the 911 dynamically, but they're selling them in 100's whilst Porsche sell in 1000's.
The 911 is a brilliant car. I'm not having a pop at it. However, you only need to join PCGB (don't, it's s
te), to see that at least 50% of Porsche owners buy them to show off, not to drive them properly. Lotus doesn't have, and never will have the brand heratige of Porshe, Ferrari, McLaren, Lambo, Bugatti, Merc, BMW, the list is waay long. To get that heritage will take 2 generations (after all, most of us like cars our dads liked when we were below 10).
Bahar hasn't got that long. He has 5 years, IF he can hit plan - I can't think of any car manufacturor that has turned around in that time...*
The 911 is a brilliant car. I'm not having a pop at it. However, you only need to join PCGB (don't, it's s
te), to see that at least 50% of Porsche owners buy them to show off, not to drive them properly. Lotus doesn't have, and never will have the brand heratige of Porshe, Ferrari, McLaren, Lambo, Bugatti, Merc, BMW, the list is waay long. To get that heritage will take 2 generations (after all, most of us like cars our dads liked when we were below 10).Bahar hasn't got that long. He has 5 years, IF he can hit plan - I can't think of any car manufacturor that has turned around in that time...*
- Skoda / SEAT don't count. Once their brands were just rebadged polos etc, the cars the former companies made don't come into it...
Edited by Some Gump on Friday 29th April 02:33
Some Gump said:
Bahar hasn't got that long. He has 5 years
Oh no he hasn't - Bahar has only managed to raise half the money they hoped for, it looks like everything depends on the success of the launch of the first car...Though to be honest what happens at Group Lotus is all a bit irrelevant now, personally I'm much more interested in what the Team Lotus/Caterham/Lola combo can come up with in the 20-40k space than the Group Lotus 100k+ cars
Some Gump said:
at least 50% of Porsche owners buy them to show off, not to drive them properly
There's a fair argument that it's upto the owner to decide what 'properly' actually means as it's their car and everyone has a different take on that...BUT
I'd say the number of people who buy a Porsche for it's image and use a fraction of it's ability is WAY WAY WAY WAY higher than 50%, if for no other reason than it's virtually impossible to make use of what modern Porsches (Ferraris, Lamborghini and a stack of other cars) do most of the time anyway...
Looked at rationally, the ONLY reason to own most Porsches, Ferraris etc. is image/appearance value - for the price of a new 911 GT3 or a 458 you could own a trackcar, a convertible, a fast saloon, a fast bike, a jetski and membership of a supercar club - these things don't do rational
BSC said:
Fernandes said: "We could ultimately create an engineering division," he muses. "We're very good at composites, for example. And it would be great to have a car factory and a race team and a test track all together in the same place."
In my book it reads like this: The management buy-out of Lotus was declined by Proton. Lotus seems to be in need of a lot of money for all the plans T Bahar has had. Proton will not give all the money needed. Investors are out of sight.
When Fernandes takes over Lotus he has all he mentioned in the interview: test-track, car factory and race team in the same place. And the Seven is back home.
stalking horse and all that. In my book it reads like this: The management buy-out of Lotus was declined by Proton. Lotus seems to be in need of a lot of money for all the plans T Bahar has had. Proton will not give all the money needed. Investors are out of sight.
When Fernandes takes over Lotus he has all he mentioned in the interview: test-track, car factory and race team in the same place. And the Seven is back home.
some other wise sage on the other thread quoted this article which was interesting.
http://www.aronline.co.uk/index.htm?blogs/2011/04/...
last bit
"Fernandes would then be in a position to offer the Malaysian Government a chance to take the stricken Lotus off its hands. Indeed, as he did with Air Asia, Fernandes could purchase Group Lotus for literally pennies and integrate it with a successful automotive operation of his own. Unlike Dany Bahar, Fernandes doesn’t have to sell thousands of high-priced supercars into a saturated market or establish a brand in a market segment in which it has never consistently competed. Nor is he at the mercy of money Fund Managers who may, or may not, get extravagant bonuses to spend on four-wheeled toys. Fernandes only needs to survive. No matter which way the wind blows in this contest, he wins."
mechadaniel said:
Though to be honest what happens at Group Lotus is all a bit irrelevant now, personally I'm much more interested in what the Team Lotus/Caterham/Lola combo can come up with in the 20-40k space than the Group Lotus 100k+ cars
and that, in a nutshell, is the problem that Lotus Cars now has.NuisanceFactor said:
mechadaniel said:
Though to be honest what happens at Group Lotus is all a bit irrelevant now, personally I'm much more interested in what the Team Lotus/Caterham/Lola combo can come up with in the 20-40k space than the Group Lotus 100k+ cars
and that, in a nutshell, is the problem that Lotus Cars now has.NuisanceFactor said:
and that, in a nutshell, is the problem that Lotus Cars now has.
Or not.The problems facing anyone who intends to build sportscars include,
1. Meeting global regulations in order to access enough markets to achieve enough sales
2. Limited demand
3. Manufacturing costs - labour
4. Manufacturing costs - economies of scale
5. ...and many would say, recent heritage and/or racing success.
Group Lotus may struggle with these issues but one thing is absolutely clear - Fernandes/Caterham can't tick ANY of the boxes in a worthwhile manner. You can't tackle Ferrari, Lamborghini, Maserati etc by building cars in a garden shed. Meanwhile some of the world's biggest car makers have given up with the "affordable sportscar" - Toyota MR1, Honda S2000.
Group Lotus may have its problems but Fernandes/Caterham problems are a million times bigger.
Some Gump said:
Cathal, am I correct to read that you think Behar's plans have a chance of sucess? I just can't see it. Time and time again, the market has proven that petrolheads are NOT the buyers of exotica. Take the Evora. Apparently it trounces the 911 dynamically, but they're selling them in 100's whilst Porsche sell in 1000's.
The 911 is a brilliant car. I'm not having a pop at it. However, you only need to join PCGB (don't, it's ste), to see that at least 50% of Porsche owners buy them to show off, not to drive them properly. Lotus doesn't have, and never will have the brand heratige of Porshe, Ferrari, McLaren, Lambo, Bugatti, Merc, BMW, the list is waay long. To get that heritage will take 2 generations (after all, most of us like cars our dads liked when we were below 10).
Bahar hasn't got that long. He has 5 years, IF he can hit plan - I can't think of any car manufacturor that has turned around in that time...*
Sadly, all of this is true. Wishes do not a strategy make - Lotus is trying to do the impossible in my opinion. Even if the product they produce is superb, they still will fall far short on brand perception.The 911 is a brilliant car. I'm not having a pop at it. However, you only need to join PCGB (don't, it's s
te), to see that at least 50% of Porsche owners buy them to show off, not to drive them properly. Lotus doesn't have, and never will have the brand heratige of Porshe, Ferrari, McLaren, Lambo, Bugatti, Merc, BMW, the list is waay long. To get that heritage will take 2 generations (after all, most of us like cars our dads liked when we were below 10).Bahar hasn't got that long. He has 5 years, IF he can hit plan - I can't think of any car manufacturor that has turned around in that time...*
- Skoda / SEAT don't count. Once their brands were just rebadged polos etc, the cars the former companies made don't come into it...
Edited by Some Gump on Friday 29th April 02:33
Some Gump said:
Lotus doesn't have, and never will have the brand heratige of Porshe, Ferrari, McLaren, Lambo, Bugatti, Merc, BMW, the list is waay long.
I'm sorry but how can you say Lambo have heritage? You do know they only make cars because the owner didn't like the clutch in his Ferrari and thought he could do a better job based on all his tractor building knowledge?And you talk about heritage without saying alfa Romeo! Thats where enzo started!
Some Gump said:
Cathal, am I correct to read that you think Behar's plans have a chance of sucess? I just can't see it. Time and time again, the market has proven that petrolheads are NOT the buyers of exotica. Take the Evora. Apparently it trounces the 911 dynamically, but they're selling them in 100's whilst Porsche sell in 1000's.
The 911 is a brilliant car. I'm not having a pop at it. However, you only need to join PCGB (don't, it's ste), to see that at least 50% of Porsche owners buy them to show off, not to drive them properly. Lotus doesn't have, and never will have the brand heratige of Porshe, Ferrari, McLaren, Lambo, Bugatti, Merc, BMW, the list is waay long. To get that heritage will take 2 generations (after all, most of us like cars our dads liked when we were below 10).
Bahar hasn't got that long. He has 5 years, IF he can hit plan - I can't think of any car manufacturor that has turned around in that time...*
No I was saying that he idea that Ansar Ali and by proxy Fernandez understand Lotus history better than evil Bahar does is cobblers. Its part of the general ill informed Bahar bashing and TF loving that goes on here from people who don't know Lotus as well as they think they do, smug negativity merchants that ruin every topic on PH and dare I say it, Elise owners who dont want change they cant buy into. The 911 is a brilliant car. I'm not having a pop at it. However, you only need to join PCGB (don't, it's s
te), to see that at least 50% of Porsche owners buy them to show off, not to drive them properly. Lotus doesn't have, and never will have the brand heratige of Porshe, Ferrari, McLaren, Lambo, Bugatti, Merc, BMW, the list is waay long. To get that heritage will take 2 generations (after all, most of us like cars our dads liked when we were below 10).Bahar hasn't got that long. He has 5 years, IF he can hit plan - I can't think of any car manufacturor that has turned around in that time...*
- Skoda / SEAT don't count. Once their brands were just rebadged polos etc, the cars the former companies made don't come into it...
Edited by Some Gump on Friday 29th April 02:33
Interesting question though, will it succeed? Well it has a better chance than carrying on with the current strategy that the Elise obsessives love so much. Bob Lutz was spot on, its do this or die, it is that simple. Take this risk or Lotus will be gone forever, and Tony F has neither the vision nor the cash to make this step had he got control (nor the scruples).
I do think it has a reasonable chance, and more auto journos are coming to that conclusion as time goes by. You make a good point about brand cachet, but this is a return to where Lotus was in Chapmans days, not a leap into the unknown. Lotus don't need to sell Porsche numbers for this to succeed remember, that's not the goal. Many of the new cars will be marketed at the emerging markets and the USA, not us. Also as luxury goods to non enthusiasts as well as people like us.
One area where you're wrong, Lotus doesn;t have the brand heritage of Porsche, Lambo, Bugatti etc... Wrong buddy, Lotus has all the ingredients for an expert marketing effort to use to trump most of those brands. Resoration of reputation is easier than building one based on nothing. What can they use to do it? 13 formula one championships, Indy 500 win, saloon and sports car championships, a uniquely charismatic founder who was one the greatest engineers ever, domination of f1 for two decades, probably te best F1 car ever made (the 72). Frankly that heritage can only be rivalled by one of those you mention and Lambo? What heritage?
All these things are gold to marketer and thats what DB is, he knows how to promote and pacakage all that to the target audience. In my view there's a 50/50 chance of it succeeding and even if it fails, the company will be closer to what Colin wanted and be more attractive to the next buyer.
For Caterham it's great to see new investment, I think it unwise to try to take on Lotus head on though. THe new ELise will still be very light and a similar price, Caterham tried this once before and it didn't work.
Janosh said:
Alfa numeric said:
Lotus, who aren't actually Lotus, have bought a company that is run by a man who used to run Lotus, which produces a car that used to be a Lotus.
Absolute genius - the best post I've read in a while!
Lots about LeMans too, if you like that sort of thing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncnvO5jNTKo
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