Discussion
Just wondering what people think will happen with these now the first influx from the cheap lease deals is a couple of months away. Will the values drop off a cliff or will the ones that are in the classifieds just now hold strong despite there being the potential for a lot more for sale? Prices seem to be ~£24k
Just doing my usual Friday man maths scan through the classifieds and letting my mind wander!
Just doing my usual Friday man maths scan through the classifieds and letting my mind wander!
The obvious answers is the prices will take quite a dip over the next 6-9 months when an influx of used examples hit the forecourts/classifieds.
Same thing has happened to the F10 M5, E/C63 AMG & has started with the C7 RS6 now discounts of 15-16% are available (i'm sure other cars can be included in the list). I've no real experience of Golfs so this of course is only my opinion based on supply/demand which as you say for the Golf R is about to get a tad crazy as the dealers won't want to hold onto the returning cars for very long & the only way to avoid that is move them on cheap. Given many i'd expect will be turing up at auctions, this will have a further impact as those cars will be sold well below book prices so will drive the market price down i'd assume.
Same thing has happened to the F10 M5, E/C63 AMG & has started with the C7 RS6 now discounts of 15-16% are available (i'm sure other cars can be included in the list). I've no real experience of Golfs so this of course is only my opinion based on supply/demand which as you say for the Golf R is about to get a tad crazy as the dealers won't want to hold onto the returning cars for very long & the only way to avoid that is move them on cheap. Given many i'd expect will be turing up at auctions, this will have a further impact as those cars will be sold well below book prices so will drive the market price down i'd assume.
Will certainly be interesting. Used values of MK5 and MK6 GTIs have been holding up pretty well, so a huge influx of Rs hitting the market will almost certainly push down the price of MK7 GTIs.
Does anyone know how many Rs VW actually sold? I know there is the perception they sold loads of them, but they're not all that common where I live, at least not compared to the GTD.
Does anyone know how many Rs VW actually sold? I know there is the perception they sold loads of them, but they're not all that common where I live, at least not compared to the GTD.
Oh to own a crystal ball...
Eyeing up a potential car change in the coming weeks. Too much of a wait for a new car so used it is likely to be.
MK7 GTI is a strong contender in the low £20k's but if an influx of R's is due then they might replace the £20k GTIs, putting the R into pole position.
BUT ... at £25k, an R is up against an RS3, and the RS3 is likely to hold its value better. Even if there is no immediate drop in prices for an R, there will be at some point in the next 12-18 months.
I know even at £25k a lot of people would argue the R is a better car than an RS3 but, damn, the RS3 has a lot going for it.
If anyone is able to pop to April 2016 and take a look on Autotrader, that would be appreciated!
Eyeing up a potential car change in the coming weeks. Too much of a wait for a new car so used it is likely to be.
MK7 GTI is a strong contender in the low £20k's but if an influx of R's is due then they might replace the £20k GTIs, putting the R into pole position.
BUT ... at £25k, an R is up against an RS3, and the RS3 is likely to hold its value better. Even if there is no immediate drop in prices for an R, there will be at some point in the next 12-18 months.
I know even at £25k a lot of people would argue the R is a better car than an RS3 but, damn, the RS3 has a lot going for it.
If anyone is able to pop to April 2016 and take a look on Autotrader, that would be appreciated!
andrewparker said:
Will certainly be interesting. Used values of MK5 and MK6 GTIs have been holding up pretty well, so a huge influx of Rs hitting the market will almost certainly push down the price of MK7 GTIs.
Does anyone know how many Rs VW actually sold? I know there is the perception they sold loads of them, but they're not all that common where I live, at least not compared to the GTD.
They're 10 a penny round here & i see several on my regular journeys.Does anyone know how many Rs VW actually sold? I know there is the perception they sold loads of them, but they're not all that common where I live, at least not compared to the GTD.
yeah but would you want one back off lease? years ago all the mags would say to look out for thrashed high performance cars driven by boy racers. id get a full inspection before signing on the dotted line especially if you have a DSG in mind as you dont want that failing on you through neglect.
HarryW said:
Here's a screen shot from the what car depreciation calculator show 3 door variants of the TD, GTI and R of the new Golf, don't suppose it's going to be a million miles out.
Interesting, particularly considering the large majority of used 3 - 4 year old MK6 Rs on the VW site are in the region of £19k to £24k.I personally can't see you being able to pick up a 2-year-old MK7 R for less than £20k.
andrewparker said:
HarryW said:
Here's a screen shot from the what car depreciation calculator show 3 door variants of the TD, GTI and R of the new Golf, don't suppose it's going to be a million miles out.
Interesting, particularly considering the large majority of used 3 - 4 year old MK6 Rs on the VW site are in the region of £19k to £24k.I personally can't see you being able to pick up a 2-year-old MK7 R for less than £20k.
Evolved said:
Hmmm, when these were new to market I would have agreed but as a second hand but it seems better value given the value projections end of term.
It depends what discount you can achieve on a new one. Best I've heard of was £27k for a pre-registered 5 door with no options. If the retail value is £20k after two years then I'm guessing the trade-in value is nearer £18k, meaning a cost of £9k for two years ownership. Whatever happens depreciation is going to be greater than £7.5k IMO. but at the end of your 2 years youve got zippo. you could go lease something else for a year or 2 and again at the end of the term you have bugger all to show yet had you bought outright and spread that over the same 3 or 4 years, yes youve suffered some depreciation, but youve still got something to show for your 4 years of monthly payments unlike Mr Lease man. 4 years in its likely to be about £20-25k?
I dont get the lease thing and wont be swayed by any self appointed expert on the subject.
I dont get the lease thing and wont be swayed by any self appointed expert on the subject.
I don't see the prices falling off a cliff. It depends how many of the ones on the road are on lease deals. If it's a lot (which I expect it is) then they'll be returned to VW dealers and the prices will be kept artificially high. I would also bet that a lot of the leased cars don't have many optional extras so used prices won't need to be adjusted to separate high and low spec models - they can just put the price up on all of them.
ToothbrushMan said:
but at the end of your 2 years youve got zippo. you could go lease something else for a year or 2 and again at the end of the term you have bugger all to show yet had you bought outright and spread that over the same 3 or 4 years, yes youve suffered some depreciation, but youve still got something to show for your 4 years of monthly payments unlike Mr Lease man. 4 years in its likely to be about £20-25k?
I dont get the lease thing and wont be swayed by any self appointed expert on the subject.
The depreciation index above shows a £30,820 car depreciating to the tune of £16,920 over 4 years, being worth only £13,900. So what do you really have to show for it?I dont get the lease thing and wont be swayed by any self appointed expert on the subject.
In contrast you can lease a Golf R for just £7500 for two years, so £15000 for 4 years (rather confused as to where you get your £20k - £25k figure from?) of hassle free motoring. The margins are pretty tight, but honestly, if you think that by buying and selling after 4 years you are going to be much better off financially then I think you're mistaken.
But I agree, you don't get the lease thing, and it would appear with your attitude you're not open to getting it either.
Resurrecting this as:
a) I've now driven an R and it's top of the list as my next car
b) We're a bit closer to March and, potentially, an influx of used R's
Be good to know if anyone has their finger on the pulse of trade/auctions etc.
Potentially need a new car in the next 2-3 weeks but if waiting a little longer could yield a cheaper car then it would make sense to bridge the gap with a rental car...
a) I've now driven an R and it's top of the list as my next car
b) We're a bit closer to March and, potentially, an influx of used R's
Be good to know if anyone has their finger on the pulse of trade/auctions etc.
Potentially need a new car in the next 2-3 weeks but if waiting a little longer could yield a cheaper car then it would make sense to bridge the gap with a rental car...
ToothbrushMan said:
but at the end of your 2 years youve got zippo. you could go lease something else for a year or 2 and again at the end of the term you have bugger all to show yet had you bought outright and spread that over the same 3 or 4 years, yes youve suffered some depreciation, but youve still got something to show for your 4 years of monthly payments unlike Mr Lease man. 4 years in its likely to be about £20-25k?
I dont get the lease thing and wont be swayed by any self appointed expert on the subject.
HP over three years - £30,000 car = £3,000 deposit + 36 monthly payments of circa £800 a month. Own asset worth circa £12,000. Outlay = £19,800I dont get the lease thing and wont be swayed by any self appointed expert on the subject.
Lease over three years - £30,000 car = £3,000 deposit + 35 monthly payments of circa £400 a month = outlay circa £17,400
Give or take ...
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