458 values now that the 488GTB is here - only way is down!?

[Russell996]

458 said:

Don't understand. You were claiming there were lots of 458 around as you have seen lots in London, then made a statement about there being so many more 458 being registered than 430. Now you are given data (sourced by 'clumsy googling') which contradicts that statement, you have moved onto numbers registered over a time period.

But the fact remains, there are LESS 458s than 430s.

430s were registered over a 5 year period between 2005 and 2009 ( a few were registered later as we were in deep recession)
458s were registered over a 5 year period between 2010 and 2014 ( a few still need to be registered in 2015)

In fact, by any measure the sales of 458 was less than 430 by quite some margin.

First year of 430 sales was nearly 400, compared to 458 only achieving just over 120.
Second year of 430 sales nearly broke 500, compared to 458 second year of 220.

It took until the launch of the Spyder to achieve 400 sales of 458.

Edited by 458 on Tuesday 3rd February 23:24

Interesting how stats can be used.

F430 sales are split across manual and F1 cars, many owners would call these different models but for the purposes of comparison I have gone with your combined approach.

The number of 458 coupes and F430 coupes will probably end up actually being very similar at around 850 and over a similar period. The major difference comes with the spiders and the fact that the 458 spider had a very delayed launch. There are about 2/3's as many 458 spiders as F430 spiders but they were registered over a much much shorter period with annual registrations at their peak approaching double the rate. This will/might lead to a saturated used market in the short term as many cars reach their first trade point at the same time before things start to sort themselves out over the longer term. Time will tell.

Edited by Russell996 on Tuesday 3rd February 23:53

[keith jecks]

According to howmanyleft.com, if you add all models together (Spider, Coupe, Scuderia/Speciale etc) the numbers registered are very similar - just over 1,200 each of 430's and 458's.

I don't hav an opinion on what 458's will do, but would be very pleased to see manual 430 spiders rise in value...

[TP321]

Anyway, this looks drop dead gorgeous and if i was contemplating a £200k supercar, this is the only one i would consider right now. I think the 458 residuals will be fine as long as they are below £170-180K, but those 650s for £230-250k look old hat already.

Spoke to my dealer today who said that a good spec 488 will be around £215k for the coupe.

[Russell996]

keith jecks said:

According to howmanyleft.com, if you add all models together (Spider, Coupe, Scuderia/Speciale etc) the numbers registered are very similar - just over 1,200 each of 430's and 458's.

I don't hav an opinion on what 458's will do, but would be very pleased to see manual 430 spiders rise in value...

I think your numbers are a bit out, ignoring Scud & 16M the howmanyleft figure for F430 coupe and spider is about 1835.
458 figure is/will be considerably less but only for spiders due to the smaller sales window, coupes are comparable and then the F430 F1/manual argument kicks in.

Edited by Russell996 on Wednesday 4th February 00:08

[keith jecks]

That's odd - I have re-checked and can only find 1142 430's ignoring the Scuderias and 16M's versus 1148 458's. I can see 98 SORN F430 and 42 SORN 458's. Where are the other 600 odd cars that you can see? Are we looking at the same site?

[Russell996]

keith jecks said:

That's odd - I have re-checked and can only find 1142 430's ignoring the Scuderias and 16M's versus 1148 458's. I can see 98 SORN F430 and 42 SORN 458's. Where are the other 600 odd cars that you can see? Are we looking at the same site?

You are looking at the cars left in the UK when adding registered and SORN cars - perfectly valid number to consider when looking at ongoing values and shows just how many cars have been exported since they were first registered. I was comparing the numbers of 430's and 458's sold new in the UK.

[GRBF430F1]

TP321 said:

Anyway, this looks drop dead gorgeous and if i was contemplating a £200k supercar, this is the only one i would consider right now. I think the 458 residuals will be fine as long as they are below £170-180K, but those 650s for £230-250k look old hat already.

Spoke to my dealer today who said that a good spec 488 will be around £215k for the coupe.

Old hat So the 488GTB that is not even here yet and then the spider version that will still be over a year away has only just caught up with the 650S.
Now the F car has lost its N/a V8 advantage will it be worth the premium ?
A £230k 650S will look good value compared to an equivalent spec 488 spider that will be full list £280k for some time
What does look dated now is the 458 IMHO. I've always preferred the 2nd generation cars, but what it does mean by being an evolution rather than an entirely new model, the old model immediately looks old hat.
If you can live with that a 458 spider at £170k should not fair too badly value wise

[355Chris355]

http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/f...

Anyone fancy a £105k Ferrari 458???

Okay it is LHD but still...

[MitchT]

I feel the effect (one way or another) of the 488 on 458's value will become more apparent when we get to hear the 488's exhaust note. One of my colleagues told me this morning that someone she knows got their order in for a 458 when they found out that its replacement was going to be turbocharged. If that kind of sentiment is prevalent then maybe the 458's residuals will be pretty robust.

[Durzel]

Anyone care to speculate on where they think 430 prices will go now?

Appreciate it's a sensitive subject..

If 458 prices are going to trend downwards, as you'd assume they probably will regardless of the whole "last NA V8" thing, then 430s at £90k+ seem to be unsustainable?

My gut feeling is that there will always need to be a reasonable cushion between 458 and 430 prices because the former is a significant technological leap forwards, moreso I'd say than the 430 from the 360.

So what's next?

[Cheib]

GRBF430F1 said:

488 spider that will be full list £280k for some time

I have nothing to say except....fk me that's expensive!

599 GTO's were about that weren't they? I know that is not exactly a valid comparison but one was a limited edition model and only the third to wear the GTO badge and the other is Ferrari's volume model.

[Hollowpockets]

MitchT said:

I feel the effect (one way or another) of the 488 on 458's value will become more apparent when we get to hear the 488's exhaust note. One of my colleagues told me this morning that someone she knows got their order in for a 458 when they found out that its replacement was going to be turbocharged. If that kind of sentiment is prevalent then maybe the 458's residuals will be pretty robust.

I bought the Speciale as I wanted the last NA V8, love the look of the 488 but I doubt ill ever buy one.

[F355GTS]

Cheib said:

GRBF430F1 said:

488 spider that will be full list £280k for some time

I have nothing to say except....fk me that's expensive!

599 GTO's were about that weren't they? I know that is not exactly a valid comparison but one was a limited edition model and only the third to wear the GTO badge and the other is Ferrari's volume model.

Suspect £235k is a more realistic figure for a reasonably specced car

[andy355]

488 looks great to me however if the Cali T is a guide then it will sound pretty lame at idle

[GRBF430F1]

F355GTS said:

Suspect £235k is a more realistic figure for a reasonably specced car

I'm guessing Ferrari will hike up the price a minimum of £10k and more likely £20k over the outgoing 458 model and in line with McLaren 650S
So yeah you will achieve that for a 488 GTB coupe but for the spider that would be a pretty basic car. When I went to spec a 458 spider even with my sensible head on I managed to accumulate £38k in options with what I considered essential and not luxury spec.

If basic list is £220k for a spider when it comes out then you are definitely heading for a £260k car and Ferrari will want early production cars to be high spec to guarantee a build slot.
In a years time that will be a hefty premium over a 1 year old used 650S which are currently circa £200k or a brand new high spec one which I suspect could be had for £230k.

Yes I think 488 will sell well as the latest greatest F car for sure but I also think used 458 values will remain strong because of the big price gap yet again just like F430 did with the intro of 458. I also think it makes McLaren 12C's and 650S a great value for money alternative with a growing British brand which will increase future demand on lower volume produced cars

[keith jecks]

Russell996 said:

You are looking at the cars left in the UK when adding registered and SORN cars - perfectly valid number to consider when looking at ongoing values and shows just how many cars have been exported since they were first registered. I was comparing the numbers of 430's and 458's sold new in the UK.

That's interesting. So about 600 odd cars have disappeared from the UK? Some will be exported, but I wonder how many have gone through accidents!

[boxerTen]

Hollowpockets said:

MitchT said:

I feel the effect (one way or another) of the 488 on 458's value will become more apparent when we get to hear the 488's exhaust note. One of my colleagues told me this morning that someone she knows got their order in for a 458 when they found out that its replacement was going to be turbocharged. If that kind of sentiment is prevalent then maybe the 458's residuals will be pretty robust.

I bought the Speciale as I wanted the last NA V8, love the look of the 488 but I doubt ill ever buy one.

It would be nice to think this sort of sentiment was common but I suspect as long as it looks good (it does IMO), and has a power output beginning with a '6', that will be quite sufficient for a good proportion of buyers.

[Hollowpockets]

There are half a dozen guys in Aberdeen have done the same, who I doubt will jump to get the 488. Certainly for now people want to hold on to the NA cars and it will take some time and development before the turbod supercar is once again accepted with open arms.

Just look at F1 with noise issues for the fans, people want to hear the noise, now that I think about it, I've not heard a single person bleat on about a BMW i8 since it was launched...

Maybe I'm too much a passionate petrolhead and the masses will do the opposite but we'll see soon

G

[82c]

I think the 458 value will remain strong due to the last normal aspirated V8 production Ferrari, I have recently advertised mine as I want an FF, I have already taken a deposit and had another 3 enquiries within a short period.

[TP321]

McLaren will have to come in with a 700bhp car to cause any damage to this 488. I think it will rule the waves far more emphatically than the 458, now that it is not at a power disadvantage to the 650s.