308/328 Values
Discussion
Behemoth said:
Really?
I think what is implied is that with the base rate at 0.5% then rates could still 'double' to 1.0% (whilst remaining historically 'low') and that would have an insignificant impact on peoples perception of the cost of finance (e.g. it might put their costs up by 10% as in from 5.0 to 5.5%) but saying this, I'm not convinced that 'cheap money' is the key force behind the recent gains in the prices of modern classics.MogulBoy said:
I'm not convinced that 'cheap money' is the key force behind the recent gains in the prices of modern classics.
I understood the nuance of the doubling, don't worry 
I think ultra low interest rates are definitely a factor. It makes people more minded to spend than save. And if that spending can be made to appear like an investment, all the better. We haven't seen the end of it. Just wait until pension pots are released from their cages.
Unfortunately one can't compare different times - late 1980s to now - in the hope of establishing some kind of pattern. One incontrovertible fact though is that things move in cycles - after all things can't keep going up for ever. A bubble is certainly occurring now as we see cars being bought purely because of future expectations of appreciation. But...it could still last a while yet.
Whatever and whenever something happens, I can't see things going back to where they were 10 years ago. Then a Daytona was 70k and a Boxer around half that. An F12, the closest modern equivalent is now £200k. That isn't going to go down - and will prevent bluechip cars such as those from going much below that. But I think they could eventually fall down to that level - and the more plentiful stuff such as 360s and 430s stabilise somewhat lower.
Lots of things are driving this market, but classic cars will eventually experience the same fate as other periodic 'investments' and fall out of favour.
Whatever and whenever something happens, I can't see things going back to where they were 10 years ago. Then a Daytona was 70k and a Boxer around half that. An F12, the closest modern equivalent is now £200k. That isn't going to go down - and will prevent bluechip cars such as those from going much below that. But I think they could eventually fall down to that level - and the more plentiful stuff such as 360s and 430s stabilise somewhat lower.
Lots of things are driving this market, but classic cars will eventually experience the same fate as other periodic 'investments' and fall out of favour.
JD2329 said:
Lots of things are driving this market, but classic cars will eventually experience the same fate as other periodic 'investments' and fall out of favour.
And after falling out of favour, they will eventually come back into favour. All investments are periodic in nature. Bonds, shares, property. All of them. The trick is the timing. And movements are hardly ever forecast with any useful accuracy.Yes I quite agree. What that means for future values - relative to where they are now - is the interesting thing. There are parallels with gold in some respects; unlike stocks or property they produce no income or dividend, their valuation is purely driven by future expectation.
A classic car does differ in that it does have an intrinsic value - when considered against the cost of a new one. However that benchmark would eventually see many current valuations plummet, with only the best - and rarest - blue chip classics likely to remain covetable.
I love old cars, and old Ferraris in particular, but these are enthusiasts cars. Right now I would suggest that for an enthusiast, there is too much desirable modern stuff available for a fraction of the price. To maintain something like a 12 cylinder Ferrari properly is a serious financial committment. Whenever the prospect of falling valuation does appear, 'investors' will not get out quickly enough.
A classic car does differ in that it does have an intrinsic value - when considered against the cost of a new one. However that benchmark would eventually see many current valuations plummet, with only the best - and rarest - blue chip classics likely to remain covetable.
I love old cars, and old Ferraris in particular, but these are enthusiasts cars. Right now I would suggest that for an enthusiast, there is too much desirable modern stuff available for a fraction of the price. To maintain something like a 12 cylinder Ferrari properly is a serious financial committment. Whenever the prospect of falling valuation does appear, 'investors' will not get out quickly enough.
JD2329 said:
I love old cars, and old Ferraris in particular, but these are enthusiasts cars. Right now I would suggest that for an enthusiast, there is too much desirable modern stuff available for a fraction of the price.
Maybe modern cars are not what some enthusiasts want.Edited by Aero8 on Thursday 15th January 12:06
Aero8 said:
Maybe modern cars are not what some enthusiasts want.
Too true. And maintaining a 308 is a very different prospect from maintaining a typical 12 cyl Ferrari. And the very thought of needing to maintain the vast array of sensors and nanny aids on a typical modern sports car gives me the heebeegeebees. Simple mechanical sports cars have a great future.Edited by Aero8 on Thursday 15th January 12:06
Behemoth said:
Aero8 said:
Maybe modern cars are not what some enthusiasts want.
Too true. And maintaining a 308 is a very different prospect from maintaining a typical 12 cyl Ferrari. And the very thought of needing to maintain the vast array of sensors and nanny aids on a typical modern sports car gives me the heebeegeebees. Simple mechanical sports cars have a great future.Edited by Aero8 on Thursday 15th January 12:06
Seriously, what are Foskers smoking? £75k for a 308 GT4?! http://foskers.com/sales-cars/349/1980-ferrari-308...
This deal makes no financial sense. Lose £30k as soon as you buy.
Or £1.1m for a car that is still plenty in supply: http://www.mayfairprestigeuk.co.uk/used-cars/ferra...
Lose £350k-£400k as soon as you drive that out of the showroom.
Neither of those are remotely sensible investments.
I'll agree with what others have said. It's all about cycles and timing is crucial. If you bought gold in 2002 and got rid before it reached $1,900 in June 2011, you timed it very well. Most didn't and bought at the top of the market.
If you bought Bitcoin at £5 back in 2012 and sold near the top of the market in late 2013, then it was like robbing a bank. Obviously the price of Bitcoin has crashed with no sign of abatement.
£1m for a Ferrari F40, £750k for Daytona, £350k for a Dino and £75k for a 308 GT4 (one of the most maligned models)...just seem crazy to me especially when they're still relatively easy to get hold of.
Maybe this will drag on for a while longer but the market seems peaky to me.
This deal makes no financial sense. Lose £30k as soon as you buy.
Or £1.1m for a car that is still plenty in supply: http://www.mayfairprestigeuk.co.uk/used-cars/ferra...
Lose £350k-£400k as soon as you drive that out of the showroom.
Neither of those are remotely sensible investments.
I'll agree with what others have said. It's all about cycles and timing is crucial. If you bought gold in 2002 and got rid before it reached $1,900 in June 2011, you timed it very well. Most didn't and bought at the top of the market.
If you bought Bitcoin at £5 back in 2012 and sold near the top of the market in late 2013, then it was like robbing a bank. Obviously the price of Bitcoin has crashed with no sign of abatement.
£1m for a Ferrari F40, £750k for Daytona, £350k for a Dino and £75k for a 308 GT4 (one of the most maligned models)...just seem crazy to me especially when they're still relatively easy to get hold of.
Maybe this will drag on for a while longer but the market seems peaky to me.
Jimbo0912 said:
Neither of those are remotely sensible investments.
I wouldn't disagree with your thoughts on those two in particular but I would point out that not everyone is buying these as investments. Some people make lots of sensible investments and put the proceeds towards doing something fun and / or silly. Ferraris are expensive and are going to change hands at whatever price the market sets. Yes, that's open to abuse and some investors will get their fingers burnt whilst others will look at the ROI of their F40 as being the hours of fun they have in it. I'm firmly in the latter camp.I quite understand that the appeal of classics goes way beyond residual worth. And value is a difficult thing to pin down - a very individual matter. Yet for most of us who love driving, and enjoy classics, there is still some kind of comparison involved when considering a purchase - be it the cost of a newer car, or other classic alternatives. Somewhere along the line, the car has to financially balance itself against something - unless you're so minted it doesn't matter.
So if one is able to commit to a Daytona at 750k I salute your good fortune...but when the 'investors' have left the building, is that a price enthusiasts will sustain?
So if one is able to commit to a Daytona at 750k I salute your good fortune...but when the 'investors' have left the building, is that a price enthusiasts will sustain?
Behemoth said:
Too true. And maintaining a 308 is a very different prospect from maintaining a typical 12 cyl Ferrari. And the very thought of needing to maintain the vast array of sensors and nanny aids on a typical modern sports car gives me the heebeegeebees. Simple mechanical sports cars have a great future.
You'd be surprised at how cheap it is to maintain a Colombo engined V12. But I agree that anything after the GTC/4 does cost. That's one reason why I have never bought a 355. £400 to do the belts on my 308...Jimbo0912 said:
£75k for a 308 GT4?! http://foskers.com/sales-cars/349/1980-ferrari-308...
... a 308 GT4 (one of the most maligned models)...
Hi James, just to add some context here, we're selling very good (but not exceptional) 308 GT4s for £45k. Needless to say, the car you link to is a different proposition altogether: 14000-mile concours-winning car in Rosso Corsa with full Crema hide, the original delivery plastic around the corners of the door cards, and a huge history file.... a 308 GT4 (one of the most maligned models)...
The GT4 is built in the same platform as the 308 GTB, same engine, same independent suspension. Everyone seems to think they remember the 308 GT4 being hated, but save some trivial comments on styling (FF, anyone?), it wasn't. Period road tests were glowing. Its seven years of sales were 30% higher than the six years of carb 308 GTB. People visiting the showroom now always say how much the GT4 has grown on them, which is why we've sold so many over the last year. It has more of the 1970s about it than any other Ferrari launched during that decade IMPO.
Jethro Bovingdon summed up the appeal perfectly back in November: "Think they look gorgeous in silver. More hotroddy than Pininfarina cars."
BTW - there is a LHD car with 56000 miles in Europe for £84,000. Yes, really...
At yesterday's Coys Autosport Show auction, the 308 gtsi failed to sell (£45k lower guide price).
The 355 failed to sell (£42k lower guide price)
and apparently the 456 failed to sell with No Reserve
.
I know nothing about the actual cars other than their lot numbers are not included in the sales results.
The 355 failed to sell (£42k lower guide price)
and apparently the 456 failed to sell with No Reserve
.I know nothing about the actual cars other than their lot numbers are not included in the sales results.
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